期刊名称：Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers (früher: Bank of Finland Discussion Papers)
印刷版ISSN：0785-3572
电子版ISSN：1456-6184
出版年度：2015
卷号：2015
出版社：Suomen Pankki = Bank of Finland
摘要：According to EU legislation, the national authorities should use the prin- ciple of guided discretionin setting the countercyclical capital bu¤er (CCB), which increases banksresilience against systemic risk associated with periods of excessive credit growth. This means that the decision should be based on signals from a pre-determined set of early warning indicators, but that there should also be room for discretion, as there is always uncertainty associated with the use of early warning indicators. The European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) recommends that the authorities use the deviation of the credit-to- GDP ratio from its long term trend value (credit-to-GDP gap) as the primary indicator in setting the CCB. In addition, designated authorities should use in their decision making indicators that measure private sector credit develop- ments and debt burden, overvaluation of property prices, external imbalances, mispricing of risk, and strength of bank balance sheets. Based on an empirical analysis of data on EU countries and a large assortment of potential indica- tors, we propose a set of suitable early warning indicators for each of these categories.
