期刊名称：Annals of Agricultural and Environmental Medicine
印刷版ISSN：1232-1966
电子版ISSN：1898-2263
出版年度：2015
卷号：22
期号：3
页码：421-428
DOI：10.5604/12321966.1167706
出版社：Institute of Agricultural Medicine in Lublin
摘要：Introduction. Modifications of crop species phenology due to a changing environment are of interest because of theirimpact on fruit set and final harvest. Pre-flowering and flowering phenophases in olive groves at different sites of southernSpain were examined, in order to chart potential trends and determine major correlations with weather-related parameters,especially temperature and water availability. The high prevalence of olive pollen allergy in the Mediterranean populationmakes this study highly relevant.Materials and methods. Ten sites in Cordoba province (Spain) during a 17-year period (1996–2012). BBCH phenology scale.Meteorological data from 1960 were analyzed; data from 1996 included on modeling analysis. Linear Mixed Models (LMMs)were developed, combining phenological and meteorological data.Results. Since 1960, local spring temperatures have increased 1.5 °C, the number of spring rainfall days has fallen 11 days,total rainfall has declined 150 mm. Despite phenological differences between sites, attributable to altitude, phenologicaldevelopment during the season followed a similar pattern. Flowering dates advanced 2 days, while inflorescence emergencewas delayed 24 days. Trend slopes revealed differences, an earlier period (1996–2002) with a sharp flowering advance of 15days, and a later period (2003–2012) characterized by a gradual advance and a high bud emergence delay of 22 days.Conclusions. LMMs was revealed as an appropriate technique for phenology behaviour analysis displaying both fixed andrandom interactions. Cultivars grown in the study province are adapted to climate with a synchronized response, althoughclimate change is affecting theolive reproductive cycle in southern Spain; therefore, the timing of pollen release, withsubsequent consequences on allergic population as phenological changes, could have impacts on flowering period andpollen production. Further investigation is required of the implications for crop production in Mediterranean ecosystems
