期刊名称：European Journal of Business and Social Sciences
印刷版ISSN：2235-767X
出版年度：2014
卷号：2
期号：12
页码：101-119
出版社：European Society of Business and Social Sciences
摘要：In an increasingly completive industry, government bodies, managers and practitioners in tourism sector are faced with the necessity of forecasting future tourism demand for effective planning. In this study, it is aimed to determine the forecasting model that provides the best performance when compared the ex post forecast accuracy of different exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins models which were to forecast the monthly inbound tourism demand to Istanbul by the model giving best results. As a conclusion of the assessment of experimental results, it has been observed that forecasts by the seasonal exponential smoothing models have provided quite good results. On the other hand, SARIMA (2,0,0)(1,1,0)12 model has showed best forecast accuracy with lowest deviation (MAPE % 3,42) among the all applied models. By the means of this model, it has been generated the monthly inbound tourism demand forecast to Istanbul years 2014 and 2015.
关键词：Tourism Demand; Forecasting; Time Series Methods;Istanbul
