期刊名称：European Journal of Business and Social Sciences
印刷版ISSN：2235-767X
出版年度：2014
卷号：3
期号：08
页码：256-272
出版社：European Society of Business and Social Sciences
摘要：As a part of international trade, tourism is considered as an important source of economic growth, especially for developing countries. Tourism is one of the major sources of export for the Turkish economy since the early 1980s. In this study, the tourism-led growth hypothesis has been tested for Turkey over the period 1992:Q1 - 2014Q1, employing structural break unit root tests, cointegration analysis and VECM based Granger causality analysis, including the growth and tourism uncertainties derived from GARCH models. Basic findings of the VECM Granger causality tests support the reciprocal causal hypothesis. Also, both the volatilities of tourism receipts and economic growth are Granger causes of tourism growth and economic growth in long-run as well as in short-run.
