期刊名称：European Journal of Business and Social Sciences
印刷版ISSN：2235-767X
出版年度：2015
卷号：4
期号：06
页码：40-58
出版社：European Society of Business and Social Sciences
摘要：Between 2010 and 2012, Kenya’s degree of trade openness averaged 70.1% underlining the importance of international trade to the country. In 2012, Kenya’s trade deficit reached 20.8% of GDP, contributing a negative 4 % drag to GDP growth and further threatening macroeconomic stability. Previous attempts to establish the existence of Marshall-Lerner condition used aggregated data which suffers from aggregation bias. This paper therefore aims to investigate the Marshall-Lerner condition in Kenya’s bilateral trade using the recently developed Extended Trade Balance Model. The Im- Pesaran-Shin (IPS) unit root test and the Pedroni cointegration test were applied on the data after which Mean Group estimation technique was used in the analysis. The findings indicated that the Marshall-Lerner condition was only fulfilled for trade between Kenya and China, UAE, India and South Africa. This paper recommends that while considering currency devaluation, Kenya should do so in bilateral terms.
关键词：Marshall-Lerner Condition; Exchange Rate; Bilateral;Trade Balance; Mean Group Estimation; Kenya.
