摘要:Mosquito-borne diseases cause significant public health burden and are widely re-emerging or emerging.
Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the spread of mosquito-borne disease in diverse populations
and geographies are ongoing modelling challenges. We propose a hybrid network-patch model for the
spread of mosquito-borne pathogens that accounts for individual movement through mosquito habitats,
extending the capabilities of existing agent-based models (ABMs) to include vector-borne diseases. The
ABM are coupled with differential equations representing ‘clouds’ of mosquitoes in patches accounting
for mosquito ecology. We adapted an ABM for humans using this method and investigated the importance
of heterogeneity in pathogen spread, motivating the utility of models of individual behaviour. We observed
that the final epidemic size is greater in patch models with a high risk patch frequently visited than in a
homogeneous model. Our hybrid model quantifies the importance of the heterogeneity in the spread of
mosquito-borne pathogens, guiding mitigation strategies.
关键词:patch ; network ; dengue ; chikungunya ; mosquito; borne disease ; differential equationsmodel ; individual; based model