摘要：In temperate regions, mortality is higher during winter than summer seasons. Assuming this seasonality is associated with ambient temperature, assessments often conclude that climate change will likely reduce winter mortality. However, there has been limited evaluation of the extent to which cold temperatures are actually the proximal cause of winter mortality in temperate regions. Kinney et al (2015 Environ Res. Lett.10 064016 ) analyzed multi-decadal data from 39 cities in the US and France and concluded that cold temperatures are not a primary driver of most winter excess mortality. These analyses suggest that increases in heat-related mortality with climate change will unlikely be balanced by reductions in winter mortality, reinforcing the importance of health systems continuing to ensure adequate health protection against cold temperatures even as temperatures warm.
