标题：Establishing a Framework for Evaluating Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts by Power Generation Technology Using an Input–output Table—A Case Study of Japanese Future Electricity Grid Mix
摘要：Input–output (IO) analysis is a useful economic method to evaluate the potential socio-economic and environmental impacts associated both directly and indirectly with energy technologies. Using an IO table, this study establishes a scenario analysis framework to evaluate the socio-economic and environmental impacts arising from future power generation technology mixes. The impact indices selected are employment generation and greenhouse gas emissions. The study adopts a hybrid method for the framework it establishes: a combined bottom-up and IO life cycle inventory analysis approach to reflect the technological differences by power generation technology. Using an IO table for future analysis is limited because the industrial structure is fixed to the IO table benchmark year and it is thus not possible to reflect any potential inter-sector transaction changes that may arise from technological progress. However, the framework is valuable in estimating the future potential impacts that might arise from the current industrial structure and technology level. A case study is conducted using the established framework on the potential impacts of Japan’s future grid mix scenarios. The case study considers the differences in lead-times and durable years per power generation technology to ascertain the continuous and temporary jobs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
关键词：scenario analysis; future grid mix; socio-economic and environmental impacts; input–output table; life cycle inventory analysis
