期刊名称：Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review
印刷版ISSN：2353-8821
出版年度：2013
卷号：1
期号：4
页码：7-19
出版社：Centre for Strategic and International Entrepreneurship of the Faculty of Economics and International Relations at the Cracow University of Economics.
摘要：The paper is devoted to propose a public debt risk assessment model, which allows predicting country's economic well-being trends. The proposed model evaluates different aspects of public debt-related structural indicators. Introduced debt risk assessment model uses MULTIMOORA multi-objective evaluation method. Study is based on the 2005-2010 European Union macroeconomic structural indicators. The data analysis indicates EU's ability to cope with the increasing level of public debt and predict long term fiscal consequences. Evaluation of research results enables to use multi-objective evaluation method to determine the risk of public debt. A ranking index which shows early warning signs of fiscal indebtedness problems for European Union countries is introduced in the paper. Periodical use of proposed model would help to predict incoming recessions and to implement specific fiscal policies in time to prevent them.
关键词：public debt; risk; MULTIMOORA; MOORA; structural indicators; European Union
