摘要：The Curonian Lagoon, which is the largest European coastal lagoon with a surface
area of 1578 km2 and a drainage area of 100,458 km2
, is facing a severe eutrophication problem.
With its increasing water management difficulties, the need for a sophisticated hydrological
model of the Curonian Lagoon's drainage area arose, in order to assess possible changes resulting
from local and global processes. In this study, we developed and calibrated a sophisticated
hydrological model with the required accuracy, as an initial step for the future development of a
modelling framework that aims to correctly predict the movement of pesticides, sediments or
nutrients, and to evaluate water-management practices. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was
used to implement a model ofthe study area and to assess the impact of climate-change scenarios
on the run-off of the Nemunas River and the Minija River, which are located in the Curonian
Lagoons drainage basin. The models calibration and validation were performed using monthly
streamflow data, and evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2
) and the Nash-Sutcliffe
model efficiency coefficient (NSE). The calculated values of the R2 and NSE for the Nemunas and
Minija Rivers stations were 0.81 and 0.79 for the calibration, and 0.679 and 0.602 for the
validation period. Two potential climate-change scenarios were developed within the general patterns of near-term climate projections, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change Fifth Assessment Report: both pessimistic (substantial changes in precipitation and temperature) and optimistic (insubstantial changes in precipitation and temperature). Both simulations
produce similar general patterns in river-discharge change: a strong increase (up to 22%) in the
winter months, especially in February, a decrease during the spring (up to 10%) and summer (up to
18%), and a slight increase during the autumn (up to 10%).
