摘要：The problem of constructing so-called scenarios has been considered, these scenarios beinghypothetical sequences of future actions associated with a particular course of events, dependingon a number of poorly defined, difficult to predict indistinct factors and circumstances. These sets ofscenarios make it possible to identify causal relationships and key parameters in various decisionmakingsituations. Relevant mathematically proved models can be successfully applied in practice.They therefore become important for those who take a variety of industrial, administrative andcommercial decisions under uncertainty inherent in today's competitive market environment. Boththe main characteristics of the environment, and specific aspects of the problem being solved areconsidered in the scenarios. A description of the possible future situations and causes of these situationshas also been provided. The method of fuzzy modeling has been proposed for this purpose.A conceptual mathematical formulation of the problem and ways to solve it have been offered. Asan example, a simulation of the actual task of determining the continued production period and thetime of replacement of industrial equipment has been described. A relevant graphic interpretationand ways and directions of analysis of the findings have been presented.
关键词：decision-making modeling; events scenarios; fuzzy modeling in economics
