期刊名称：Jahrbuch der Österreichischen Gesellschaft für Agrarökonomie
印刷版ISSN：1815-1027
出版年度：2014
卷号：23
页码：121-130
出版社：Facultas
摘要：We assess climate change impacts on level and variability of crop yields and profits. We identify optimal crop production portfolios capturing the trade-off between profit expectation, variability and risk aversion. Crop yields with alternative management practices are simulated with the bio-physical process model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) for a historical period (1975-2005) and five climate change scenarios (2010-2040). A non-linear mean-standard deviation model is applied to optimize spatially explicit crop production portfolios. Under climate change, optimal portfolios result in higher average crop yields and profits of 2 to 18%. Risk aversion, climate change and specific site conditions (i.e. semi-aridity, brown earth) result in more diversified crop production portfolios.
