期刊名称：Jahrbuch der Österreichischen Gesellschaft für Agrarökonomie
印刷版ISSN：1815-1027
出版年度：2015
卷号：24
页码：223-232
出版社：Facultas
摘要：We use a spatially explicit, integrated drought assessment framework to (i) assess drought scenario impacts on Austrian crop production, (ii) identify optimal crop production portfolios to effectively adapt to drought scenarios, and (iii) quantify the value of drought prediction for adaptation. The assessment framework consists of a statistical climate model, the bio-physical process model EPIC, and a portfolio optimization model. Model results at national level indicate that, under drought scenarios, rain-fed cropping may lead to average crop yield losses between 1.7% and 6.9%, compared to the baseline climate scenario with similar precipitation sums than in the past. Optimal crop production portfolios including irrigation intensities are effective for adapting to droughts leading to almost stable average annual crop yields. The average annual value of drought prediction is highest in the semi-arid regions in eastern Austria and amounts to 200 €/ha or more.
