期刊名称：International Journal of Development and Sustainability
印刷版ISSN：2186-8662
出版年度：2014
卷号：3
期号：4
页码：662-678
出版社：International Society for Development and Sustainability (ISDS)
摘要：Occurrences of rainfall induced landslides coincidein time with the period of high persistence of heavy wet spells and in spatial locations where v egetative cover has been denuded. A landslide prediction model was formulated and calibrated by simulation of previous landslide occurrences and then applied in scenario analyses to establish the effects of rainfall persistence and land use changes on slope stability in the western escarpment of the Kerio Valley in Kenya. Long term daily rainfall input was obtained using a rainfall generator. HYDRUS 1D model was applied in soil moisture analysis. An EXCEL spreadsheet infinite slope model was developed for modelcalibration. ILWIS GIS model was used to map spatial distribution of slope stability. The model successfully modelled the occurrence of previous landslide ev ents. Results indicate that rainfall totals and wet spell persistence contribute to increas e in unstable areas. Assessment of slope stability under different land uses showed that if the entire study area were completely forested, then the unstable and critical areas would be 0.05% and 1.81% respectively, but would be 0.69% and 5.35% respectively if itwere completely under agriculture.
