期刊名称：International Journal of Research in Management, Science & Technology
印刷版ISSN：2321-3264
出版年度：2014
卷号：2
期号：3
出版社：Prannath Parnami Institute of Management & Technology, Hisar
摘要：The recurrence time of great earthquake in Alborz fault region was predicted by some renewal probability models in this paper. The parameters of Gamma and Lognormal models were estimated by the method of moment and maximum likelihood. We deduced that the results of Gamma model are better than Lognormal model and calculated the probabilities of the next large earthquake occurring during a defined interval of times for each model. By maximizing the conditional probability of Gamma and Lognormal models, we concluded that the recurrence time of great earthquake in Alborz region is 2020.462±8.659(yrs.) and 2021.242±8.344(yrs.), respectively; Moreover by using the exponential, Rayleigh and weibull probability distributions and maximizing their conditional probability, the recurrence time of large earthquake (M≥6) in Alborz region was estimated. Finally by calculating the error prediction of these models, we concludeded that the exponential probability model gives the more precise prediction result
