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  • 标题:Pricing American Options Using Transition Probabilities: A Dynamical Systems Approach
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Rocio Elizondo ; Pablo Padilla ; Mogens Bladt
  • 期刊名称:Open Journal of Statistics
  • 印刷版ISSN:2161-718X
  • 电子版ISSN:2161-7198
  • 出版年度:2015
  • 卷号:05
  • 期号:06
  • 页码:525-542
  • DOI:10.4236/ojs.2015.56056
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:Scientific Research Publishing
  • 摘要:We give a new way to price American options by using Samuelson’s formula. We first obtain the option price corresponding to a European option at time t, weighing it by the probability that the underlying asset takes the value S at time t. We then use Samuelson’s formula with this factor which is given by the solution of the Fokker-Planck (Kolmogorov) equation for the transition probability density. The main advantage of this approach is that we can systematically introduce the effect of macroeconomic factors. If a macroeconomic framework is given by a dynamical system in the form of a set of ordinary differential equations we only have to solve a partial differential equation for the transition probability density. In this context, we verify, for the sake of consistency, that this formula coincides with the Black-Scholes model and compare several numerical implementations.
  • 关键词:American Options;Fokker-Planck;Black-Scholes;Samuelson;Probability Density Function
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