摘要：The paper examines the relationship between crude oil price and U.S. weekly leading index. The relationship between these two variables was unstable in long-run, so we explored the structural breakpoints from January 1995 to August 2015 by Bai-Perron breakpoint test. The results show that the causal relationships between two variables in different periods are different. We distinguish different periods from the breakpoints, and explain the main reasons for change of the casual relationships. Through this theory, the market can have a better prediction for the crude oil price base on weekly leading index.
关键词：Crude Oil Price;U.S. Weekly Leading Index;Structural Breakpoint
