摘要：Several research showed that agricultural commodities prices recorded trend, seasonality and cycle. However we did not identify research analyzing the occurrence of trend, seasonality and cycle in the anhydrous ethanol Northea st prices. In this article we used the structural time series model to analyze the existence of the elements in the anhydrous ethanol Northeast prices, using the real monthly price Alagoas, from December 1999 to March 2015 as proxy. The resulting state space model translated the existence of trend and short- and long-term cycles. However, the seasonality showed no statistically significant result. Also identified interventions, structural breaks and outliers, coincident with changes in legislation and movements in commodity supply and demand, and illustrated twelve months ahead forecasts. The modeling can be used for produ ction, marketing and storage decisions of anhydrous ethanol in the Northeast
关键词：Anhydrous ethanol; trend; cycle and seasonality; forecast; structural time series; Alagoas
