出版社：“Victor Slăvescu‿Centre for Financial and Monetary Research
摘要：The Global financial crisis that started in the United Statedand which affected the whole World and especially Europe in a shorttime shows once again that financial crises occur as a result ofbubbles in asset prices or a strong credit growth. Moreover, thatbubbles in financial markets are defined as increases in asset prices.Central banks tend to control excess credit expansion and thusensure stability in financial markets.The purpose of this study is to analyze the existence of abubble in the Turkish credit market and the success of the monetarypolicy by the Central Bank of Turkey to prevent these bubbles in lightof ongoing interest debates in Turkey. Monthly real estate loans havebeen considered for the 1986:01 to 2014:04 period in the creditsector. In this study, Sup Augmented Dickey Fuller and GeneralizedSup Augmented Dickey Fuller tests have been used to identify anddefine bubbles. Thereafter, the factors affecting credit bubbles havebeen investigated via logit model. From the results of the study, it canbe inferred that both the consumer price index and interest rates havenegative effects on credit bubbles, while total credit to thenonfinancial private sector and current account balances havepositive effects on credit bubbles.
关键词：Bubbles; Sup Test; Explosive Root; Logit Model
