期刊名称：Jahrbuch der Österreichischen Gesellschaft für Agrarökonomie
印刷版ISSN：1815-1027
出版年度：2005
期号：15
页码：35-43
出版社：Facultas
摘要：Long-term policies must be based on reliable forecasts of economic development. This paper presents a base-line scenario of the Austrian agricultural sector until 2013. It is based on a spatially differentiated sector model that captures both EU and national policies in a detailed manner. Emphasis is put on environmental measures, which focus on land use and farm management. The policies we consider particularly are the implementation of the CAP reform 2003 and the introduction of the new programme for rural development. The results show that the single farm payment, which was introduced in 2005, will have considerable consequences on land uses. The model results capture the combined effects of technical progress and reduced policy intervention in agricultural markets. Model results can be summarized as follows: (i) production is likely to become less intensive, (ii) environmentally friendly production methods become more attractive for farmers, and (iii) agricultural land will not be abandoned.
