首页    期刊浏览 2024年11月06日 星期三
登录注册

文章基本信息

  • 标题:ANALYSIS OF THE VOLATILITY OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND EXPORTS IN KENYA USING THE GARCH MODEL: 2005-2012.
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:MOHAMMED MUSTAPHA WASSEJA ; MWENDA SAMWEL N. ; MUSUNDI SAMMY W.
  • 期刊名称:Journal of Multidisciplinary Scientific Research
  • 印刷版ISSN:2307-6976
  • 出版年度:2015
  • 卷号:3
  • 期号:4
  • 页码:27-38
  • 出版社:RST Publishers
  • 摘要:

    The real exchange rate has proven to be an important factor in international trade because it is expected that exports respond to real exchange rate movements with respect to the characteristics of the importing and exporting countries. Exchange rate volatility increases uncertainty of profits on contracts denominated in foreign currency and subsequently dampens trade and economic growth. This study investigated how real exchange rate volatility affected exports of key Kenyan commodities to the European Union and United Kingdom, namely; tea, coffee and horticulture to the European Union. The presence of exchange rate volatility was determined using the GARCH model. A Bounds testing and Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was used to establish the presence of a long run relationship between exchange rate volatility and commodity exports. Findings revealed that exchange rate volatility affected tea exports to the UK and horticulture exports to the European Union. Foreign income played an important role in explaining tea and coffee exports to the UK and EU respectively.

  • 关键词:Real Exchange Rate; Real Exchange Rate Volatility; The GARCH model; Bounds testing and Autoregressive Distributed Lag mo
国家哲学社会科学文献中心版权所有