出版社：State Institution “O.M. MARZEYEV INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC HEALTH OF THE NAMS OF UKRAINE"
摘要：Objective. We predicted a probability of the formation of some types of pathology in preschool age children living in the big city. Materials and methods. We calculated the prognostic levels of morbidity for 2020 year based on a retrospective (1972-2014) analysis of the morbidity dynamics in the children 6-7 years of age (living in two districts of big city) using the extrapolation method (mathematic modeling and determination of moving average). The analysis of morbidity was performed on the basis of the documentations of preschool institutions. The evaluation of accuracy and reliability of the prognosis consisted in the calculation of the error of approximation and mathematical model coefficients. Results. The calculation of the morbidity in the senior preschool age children, living in the big city, demonstrates that the levels of the prevalence of diseases, connected etiopathogenetically with the environmental contamination, will be increased till 2020. In spite of more intensive prognostic increase of children’s morbidity in the districts located near the big industrial enterprises, the levels of children’s morbidity in the districts located near the highways will be higher. The results of the verification allow us to consider these prognoses more accurate and reliable. They can be used for creation and planning of the preventive measures for the improvement of preschool age children health status.
