摘要：Spatial planning is at the core of national land and urban development. Many countries and cities seek sustainable development through various means such as coordinated environmental planning, environmental assessment, and internalization of environmental analysis and planning. A Planning Support System (PSS) is a GIS (Geographic Information System)-based, spatial decision-making support system that incorporates a variety of theories and pertinent models. This study adopted the “What if?†model to design an alternative spatial plan that includes generation of predictive scenarios and is relatively easy to use. In the cities studied, we identified a total of six scenarios based on the main drivers of development—namely, population and spatial policies. Subsequently, we assessed the alternatives for their environmental impact, preparing sensitivity maps for each major environmental issue in the target area (natural ecosystem, air and microclimate, natural disasters). One projected advantage of the “What if?†model is that its digital visualization of proposed plans may improve public awareness and involvement. Furthermore, the tool is expected to be highly useful in ensuring the objectivity of quantitative analyses. However, it is necessary to develop a PSS that is both standardized and tailored to the particular needs of each area. Finally, the development of an e-governance system will be beneficial in ensuring public access to the decision making process.
关键词：“What if?†; decision-making system; spatial plan alternative; land use scenario; GISEA (GIS-based Strategic Environmental Assessment)
