期刊名称：ISPRS Annals of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences
印刷版ISSN：2194-9042
电子版ISSN：2194-9050
出版年度：2009
卷号：XXXVIII-8/W3
页码：106
出版社：Copernicus Publications
摘要：The fourth assessment report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) makes it clear that the global average temperature has been increased by 0.740C over the last 100 years and projected temperature increase is about 1.8 to 40C by 2100. It is very likely that all regions will experience either declines in net benefits or increases in net costs for increases in temperature greater than about 2-30C. The developing countries are expected to experience larger percentage losses, global mean losses could be 1-5% GDP for 40C of warming (IPCC, 2007).This paper presents the impact of climate change on Indian mustard (Brassica juncea) in contrasting agro-environments of the tropics by using InfoCrop (a dynamic crop simulation model) . Impact of projected climate change scenarios (HadCM3out put ofA2ascenario) was assessed by running the regional validated model for 2020, 2050 and 2080 at five locations of India which comprises of three in the IndoGangetic plains (IGP), comprising of Delhi in northern IGP, Lucknow in central IGP and Calcutta in eastern IGP. Other two locations are mustard growing region in western India (Sriganganagar in Rajasthan) and central India (Gwalior in Madhya Pradesh). Simulated results showed a spatial variation in yield among all five regions in both irrigated and rainfed mustard. Under irrigated condition the yield reduction in 2020, 2050 and 2080 would be highest in eastern-IGP region followed by central-IGP. This was due to maximum projected rise in temperature in eastern-IGP where maximum and minimum temperature would rise by 5.1° and 5.6°C in 2080. The reduction of irrigated mustard yield was least in northern-IGP under almost all scenarios. But in western India, yield reduction gradually increased from 2020 to 2080. In future climate change scenarios rainfall was projected to increase in 2050 irrespective of the locations. But in 2020 and 2080 rainfall would reduce in northern-IGP, western and central India. This was reflected in higher reduction rainfed mustard yield in these 3 locations. But maximum yield loss would occur in eastern-IGP in 2080 which might be attributed to maximum temperature rise in this region. The above result supports the adverse impacts of future anticipated climate change on mustard growth and yield. An overall negative impact on India's mustard farming was observed from 2020, through 2050 till 2080. Yield of both irrigated and rainfed mustard was affected by the changing climate. Spatial variation was noticed in terms of its yield loss with western and northern India being more vulnerable in term of yield reduction of the crop
关键词：InfoCrop; Simulation; Impact; Mustard; Aphid; Climate Change; India
