期刊名称：ISPRS Annals of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences
印刷版ISSN：2194-9042
电子版ISSN：2194-9050
出版年度：2009
卷号：XXXVIII-8/W3
页码：174
出版社：Copernicus Publications
摘要：Global warming induces steric as well as eustatic rise in sea-level, by thermal expansion and addition of ice-melt water, respectively. Although the IPCC (2007) estimated a maximum possible sea-level rise of about 59 cm, more recent estimates show a global average rise of 1 m by the 2100 AD. Geomatics-based predictive models on the possible impact of sea-level rise on the agriculture in the coastal regions are necessary to initiate appropriate mitigation plans. The present study is an attempt in this direction taking the Andhra Pradesh (AP) coast as an example. The land use / land cover pattern of the AP coastal zone was mapped through the interpretation of IRS LISS III imagery from 2008. SRTM digital elevation models have been used to interpolate contours at 1 m interval for the entire coastal region. The irregularities in the contours thus interpolated were corrected using the landform maps based on the disposition of the beach ridges, mudflats, etc. Even when IPCC (2007) estimates of 0.6 m rise in sea level are considered, the area within 2.1 m elevation would be affected by the sea-level rise by the 2100 AD along the AP coast since the spring high tide level in the region is 1.5 m. Based on this premise, the impact of the predicted sea-level rise on the agriculture in the AP coastal zone is extracted by overlaying the 2.1 m contour on the land use / land cover map of the region. The study revealed that an area of 1906 km2lie in the present intertidal zone of which aquaculture occupy over 231 km2, followed by salt pans which occupy about 96 km2, while the remaining area exhibits mangrove forests, lagoons, mudflats, tidal creeks, etc. If the sea-level rises by ~0.6 m (as predicted by IPCC, 2007), the high-tide line shifts landward up to the present 2.1 m elevation affecting the land use /land cover in an additional area of 1233 km2area between the present and future high tide lines. At present, aquaculture occupy 499 km2, salt pans of 136 km2, paddy crop occupy about 319 km2, plantations occupy about 279 km2`in this region all of which would be affected by the sea-level rise. On the whole, an area of 3139 km2including all the present intertidal wetland ecosystems as well as the area between the present and future high tide lines would be affected along the entire 1030-km-long AP coast threatening about 1.29 million people, besides all their economic activities including agriculture, in 282 revenue villages, if the sea-level rises even by about 0.6 m. The low-lying Krishna-Godavari delta region in the central part of the AP coast would be the worst affected zone with as much as 1706 km2area including about 894 km2 under various types of agricultural activities lying within 2.1 m elevation
关键词：Climate Change; Seal-level Rise; Coastal Land use; Agriculture; Vulnerability
