摘要：Thermal conditions are largely determined by atmospheric circulation. Therefore, projection of future te m- perature changes should be considered in relation to changes in circulation patterns. This paper assess to what extent changes in circulation correspond to spatial variability of the winter temperature increase in Poland in 2021 -2050 peri- od based on the RACMO2 model. The daily data of the mean temperature and sea level pressure (SLP) from selected regional climate model and observations were used. SLP data were used to determine the advection types and circula- tion character. Firstly, changes in frequency of circulation types between 2021-2050 and 1971-2000 periods were ex- amined. Then changes in air temperature for specific circulation type i n relation to reference period were studied. Final- ly, the influence of atmospheric circulation on spatial temperature variation was discussed. Considerably high increase in cyclonic situation of more than 18%, especially from the west and south -west direction, and decrease in anticyclonic situation mainly from the west and northwest in winter was noticed. Changes in frequency of circulation types result in temperature growth. For some types it is predicted that warming can reach even 3-4¡ãC. The cyclonic (Ec, SEc, Sc) and anticylonic (SEa, Sa, Ea) types are likely to foster the highest warming in the scenario period.
关键词：circulation patterns; RACMO2; temperature change; A1B scenario
