摘要：Background: 64% of young medical professionals in Germany do not feel adequately prepared for the practical requirements of the medical profession. The goal of “outcome-orientated training” is to structure medical curricula based on the skills needed when entering the workforce after completing undergraduate medical education, and thus to bridge the gap between the skills graduates have attained and those necessary for a career in the medical profession. Outcome frameworks (OFs) are used for this purpose. In preparation for developing the National Competence-Based Catalogue of Learning Objectives for Medicine (NKLM) – the German OF – the “Consensus Statement of Practical Skills in Undergraduate Medical Education” (which structures the teaching and acquisition of practical skills in Germany and which strongly influenced the “Clinical-Practical Skills” chapter of the NKLM) was published in 2011.It is not uncommon for at least a decade to elapse between the definition and implementation of an OF and the students’ graduation, which can further increase the gap between necessary and acquired skills. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to posit theses for future development in healthcare and to apply these theses to a current OF.Methodology: Partially structured interviews with experts were used to generate theses pertaining to general, future development in healthcare. These theses were assessed by physician experts based on the likelihood of implementation by the year 2025. The 288 learning goals of the consensus statement were assessed for their relevance for medical education in the interim.Results: 11 theses were generated for the development of medicine, and these theses were assessed and discussed by 738 experts. These theses include the increase in diseases associated with old age, the increasing significance of interprofessional cooperation, and the growing prevalence of telemedicine applications. Of the 288 learning goals of the consensus statement, 231 of the goals were assessed as relevant, and 57 were deemed irrelevant for the short-term future.Discussion: The theses on the future of healthcare, which were generated in this study and which were validated by numerous experts, provide indications of future developments of overall requirements for medical school graduates. For example, when applied to the content of the “Clinical-Practical Skills” NKLM chapter, they largely validate the future relevance of developing practical skills while also providing indications for their further development as applied to the consensus statement.
