摘要：This paper proposes and estimates a statistical model of nonlinear cointegration, with applications to the stock markets of Japan and the United States. We define nonlinear cointegration as a long-run stable relationship between two time series variables even in the presence of temporary nonlinear divergence from this long-run relationship. More concretely, extending the bubble model of Asako and Liu (2013) [1] to stock price ratio variables, both upward and downward divergent bubble processes are estimated at a time. We conclude that, although two stock price indexes are not linearly cointegrated, they are considered to be cointegrated nonlinearly.
关键词：Booms and Busts;Stock Prices;Nonlinear Cointegration;Bayesian Estimation
