期刊名称：Australasian Journal of Construction Economics and Building
印刷版ISSN：1835-6354
电子版ISSN：1837-9133
出版年度：2011
卷号：11
期号：4
页码：87-101
语种：English
出版社：University of Technology, Sydney
摘要：The objective of this study is to develop early cost estimating models for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques, based on 131 sets of data collected in the West Bank in Palestine. As the cost estimates are required at early stages of a project, considerations were given to the fact that the input data for the required regression model could be easily extracted from sketches or scope definition of the project. 11 regression models are developed to estimate the total cost of road construction project in US dollar; 5 of them include bid quantities as input variables and 6 include road length and road width. The coefficient of determination r 2 for the developed models is ranging from 0.92 to 0.98 which indicate that the predicted values from a forecast models fit with the real-life data. The values of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the developed regression models are ranging from 13% to 31%, the results compare favorably with past researches which have shown that the estimate accuracy in the early stages of a project is between ±25% and ±50%.
关键词：Cost estimating, regression, road construction, early estimate
