U.S. Economic Forecasting: GE vs. The Fed.

NAME PREDICTION

David Resler In response to your survey, I would opt to
Chief Economist, attend the next GE Board meeting. GE is
Nomura Securities arguably the most diversified corporation in
International, Inc. the world and its board members include
 leaders from industries such as food products,
 paper, and auto parts that are less
 important to GE's operations. In contrast, the
 District Bank presidents do not seem to
 have better data on ALL businesses which can be
 gleaned from public sources. The exception, of
 course, is their information on the banks in
 their district, but that information would be
 generally less useful to forecasting than the
 up-to-the minute assessment one could hear
 at a GE Board meeting.

Susan M. Phillips The Federal Reserve's twelve regional
Dean, School of presidents. After listening to their comments
Business & Public in FOMC meetings, I came to respect the breadth
Management, George of their knowledge and critical analysis of
Washington industrial, agricultural, financial and service
University & former sectors, often coming from conversations with
Federal Reserve CEO's or sector leaders, and surveys and
Governor. regional studies. After such a session, I
 always felt I had a better understanding of
 the breadth, depth, and diversity of
 economic conditions affecting various parts
 of the country.

Matthew Spiegel I would pick the Fed officials. Interest
Professor of rates and the money supply have a lot more
Finance, Yale to do with the overall economy than nearly
School of anything else.
Management.

Robert Dederick Of the two, I'll take the Fed
Executive VP & presidents--but Alan
Chief Economist, Greenspan's private thoughts
The Northern are my real choice.
Trust Company.

Richard N. Cooper For the near-term future direction of the U.S.
Maurits C. Boas economy, I would prefer to listen to the
Professor of private thoughts of the twelve regional
International Federal Reserve presidents. They sit on
Economics, the Open Market Committee, and their job,
Harvard inter alia, is to track developments in
University. the U.S. economy. They poll their respective
 regions and draw on competent staffs to form
 their judgments. General Electric's board
 meeting, while drawing on much practical
 experience, would be too parochial, too
 focused on GE's next strategic acquisitions
 and dispositions to rely on for an
 overview of the U.S. economy.

Gary Hufbauer GE, of course. Both the Fed and GE
Reginald Jones span the U.S. economy. Both the Fed
Senior Fellow, and GE have a superstar: respectively,
Institute for Alan Greenspan and Jack Welch.
International But GE has far stronger contacts in the
Economics. global economy, and the experience of
 its board far exceeds the Fed.

Murray Weidenbaum I'd go for sitting in on a GE Board meeting,
Chairman, Center mainly because of the global orientation
for the Study of of the company and the board.
American Business
& Mallinckrodt
Distinguished
University
Professor,
Washington
University.

Rudolph G. I'd choose to listen to the Federal Reserve
Penner presidents. They know what people like
Senior Fellow, those on the GE board are thinking AND
The Urban they know what people on the Federal
Institute. Open Market Committee are thinking.

Mike Englund I would opt for the Fed officials. The
Chief Market conduct of monetary policy has a more
Economist, measurable effect on the U.S. business
Standard & cycle over the short run than the decisions
Poor's of an individual firm or industry.
MMS
International. Over the long run, neither Fed policy makers
 nor business executives have significant
 inside information, so their long-run
 perspectives are of only limited value beyond
 the publicly known set of opinions of all the
 world's experts. If I was going to gain value
 by "listening in," I would want to obtain
 actionable "inside" information which would
 likely only be of short-run significance and
 which, preferably, would be about the
 near-term course of monetary policy if my
 interest was in the overall economy.

Stanley F. My choice would be General Electric.
Druckenmiller
Chairman, Duquesne
Capital Management.

Your job is to predict the future direction of the U.S. economy. You are offered two options:

1) to listen in on the private thoughts of the Federal Reserve's twelve regional presidents (whose institutions regularly canvas the private sector within their region); or 2) to sit in on the next Board meeting of General Electric(*). What's your choice?

GENERAL ELECTRIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS(*)

James I. Cash, Jr. Silas S. Cathcart Dennis D. Dammerman Paolo Fresco Ann M. Fudge Claudio X. Gonzalalez Jeffrey R. Immelt Andrea Jung Kenneth Langone Shelly Lazarus Scott G. McNealy Gertrude G. Michelson Sam Nunn Roger S. Penske Frank H.T. Rhodes Andrew C. Sigler Douglas A. Warner III John F. Welch, Jr. Bob Wright

(*) for more detailed biographical information on the above individuals, please go to www.ge.com, and click on: Corporate Info./Board of Directors.