Preview of the 2016 annual revision of the International Economic Accounts.
Grimm, Alexis N. ; Howell, Kristy L. ; Yorgason, Daniel R. 等
IN JUNE, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the
results of the 2016 annual revisions of the U.S. international
transactions accounts (ITAs) and the U.S. international investment
position (IIP) accounts. As part of annual revisions, statistics are
revised to incorporate newly available and revised source data, changes
in definitions and classifications, and changes in estimation methods.
In addition, seasonally adjusted statistics are revised to reflect
recalculated seasonal and trading day adjustments.
As with previous annual revisions, this year's annual
revisions will incorporate newly available and revised source data for
the preceding 3 years and for additional years for selected series. (1)
In addition, BEA will incorporate newly available source data from
benchmark surveys of foreign direct investment in the United States and
of financial services transactions between U.S. financial services
providers and foreign persons. BEA will also implement a refined method
for estimating exports and imports of travel services.
This article provides an overview of these changes. As a result of
the revisions, the international economic account statistics will
reflect more accurate source information and will be in further
alignment with international statistical guidelines.
Incorporation of results from benchmark surveys
BEA collects information on direct investment and international
trade in services through mandatory surveys of U.S. companies. In
addition to quarterly and annual surveys, which collect information from
a sample of companies whose transactions or positions are covered in the
relevant ITA or IIP accounts, BEA also conducts benchmark surveys every
5 years to collect information from the universe of such companies.
Investment positions, transactions in financial assets and
liabilities, and related income receipts and payments for 2012-2015 will
be revised to incorporate the results of BEA's 2012 Benchmark
Survey of Foreign Direct Investment in the United States. This benchmark
survey covers all U.S. resident entities that are foreign-owned.
Financial services exports and imports for 2013-2015 will be
revised to incorporate the results of BEA's 2014 Benchmark Survey
of Financial Services Transactions Between U.S. Financial Services
Providers and Foreign Persons. This benchmark survey covers all U.S.
financial services providers that have sales to, or purchases from,
foreign persons. The number of responses to this benchmark survey
increased substantially from the previous benchmark survey conducted in
2009. The 2014 survey captured the transactions of a significant number
of new reporters--primarily investment managers and hedge funds--that
were not previously in BEA's universe.
Improved methodology and source data for travel services
The travel accounts of the ITAs record expenditures on goods and
services by foreign residents visiting the United States (U.S. exports)
and by U.S. residents visiting other countries (U.S. imports). They
include both business and personal travel (see table A). In 2015,
travel-related expenditures accounted for 25 percent of total trade in
services (U.S. exports plus U.S. imports).
Combined, other business travel and other personal travel compose a
subaggregate measure of "travel (for all purposes including
education)" that excludes both expenditures by travelers whose
primary purpose for travel is education or health and expenditures by
border, seasonal, and other short-term workers. In 2015, other business
travel and other personal travel together accounted for nearly 75
percent of U.S. travel exports and for more than 90 percent of U.S.
travel imports.
For all countries other than Canada and Mexico and excluding
cruise-related travel expenditures, this subaggregate component of the
travel account is derived by multiplying the number of travelers by a
measure of their average expenditures. (2) The number of travelers is
obtained from the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) of the
International Trade Administration in the U.S. Department of Commerce
and is based on data collected by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection
(CBP) of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Average expenditures
are based on data obtained from the Survey of International Air
Travelers (SIAT), conducted by NTTO. The number of travelers and SIAT
expenditure data include the country of residence for foreign travelers
to the United States and countries of destination for U.S. travelers
abroad. The subaggregate component of the travel account is allocated to
other business travel and other personal travel using information from
the SIAT.
Beginning with statistics for 2013, BEA will refine its methodology
for estimating average expenditures for other business and other
personal travel exports and imports for countries other than Canada and
Mexico. BEA currently estimates average expenditures by individual
country or by country group from expenditures reported on the SIAT. For
countries with smaller sample sizes, expenditures are averaged over time
or across similar countries. BEA will introduce an improved method based
on a moving average of the quarterly estimates used currently for
estimating average expenditures. This approach will be less influenced
by data variability introduced by small sample sizes and by survey
sample outliers.
BEA will also incorporate revised source data for other business
and other personal travel exports. Source data on the number of foreign
travelers to the United States collected by CBP were revised to
incorporate two improvements related to CBP's implementation of the
automated collection of travel documents from foreign visitors entering
the United States in 2013. (3)
Beginning with statistics for 2013, the number of foreign travelers
will be revised to cover travelers whose country of residence was not
collected under CBP's automated collection of travel documents. BEA
currently does not include travelers with missing countries of residence
in its estimates of other business and other personal travel exports
because the number of travelers for whom the country of residence was
missing was not significant until 2015. For 2014 and 2015, the source
data BEA receives from NTTO were revised to replace a traveler's
missing country of residence with the traveler's country of
citizenship. For 2013, BEA estimated the country of residence for those
travelers missing a country of residence based on country shares used
for 2014.
Beginning with statistics for 2014, BEA will incorporate data into
the travel estimates on the number of foreign travelers entering the
United States who stay for only one night. Although international
statistical standards, including the International Monetary Fund's
Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth
Edition (BPM6), call for U.S. travel exports to include expenditures by
all visitors who maintain a substantial economic interest in an economy
other than the United States regardless of length of stay, past source
data limitations led to the exclusion of travelers who stay for only one
night. CBP's implementation of the automated collection of travel
documents has led to a more accurate accounting of visitors who stay for
only one night, and, as a result, BEA is now able to include these
travelers in the source data that BEA uses to estimate other business
and other personal travel exports.
Improved source data for air passenger transport exports
Air passenger transport exports measure payments by nonresidents to
U.S. air carriers for transportation to and from the United States and
between two foreign countries. BEA compiles air passenger transport
statistics for countries and areas other than Canada by multiplying data
on the number of travelers by estimates of average air fares. (4) The
number of travelers is from NTTO, based on data collected by CBP.
Average fares are based on information from the SIAT. BEA will revise
its estimates of air passenger transport exports by incorporating the
revised CBP data on the number of travelers that were described above.
By Alexis N. Grimm, Kristy L. Howell, and Daniel R. Yorgason
(1) For information on BEA's revision policy and on data
sources and esti­mation methodologies, see U.S. International
Economic Accounts: Concepts and Methods on BEA's Web site.
(2) Statistics for Canada and Mexico are based on data provided to
BEA by Statistics Canada and the Bank of Mexico. Statistics for travel
by cruise are based on data from the Department of Homeland Security and
several private sources.
(3) More information on both of these revisions to source data is
available from the National Travel and Tourism Office.
(4) For travel to and from Canada, BEA uses data provided by
Statistics Canada.
Table A. U.S. Trade in Travel Services [Millions of dollars]
Exports
2013 2014 2015
Total US trade in services 687,894 710,565 710,165
Of which:
Travel (for all purposes including
education) 172,901 177,241 178,297
Business 39,411 40,358 36,940
Expenditures by border, seasonal,
and other short-term workers 7,164 7,255 7,490
Other business travel 32,247 33,103 29,450
Personal 133,490 136,883 141,356
Health related 3,312 3,468 3,597
Education related 27,410 30,795 34,526
Other personal travel 102,768 102,620 103,233
Imports
2013 2014 2015
Total US trade in services 463,700 477,428 490,613
Of which:
Travel (for all purposes including
education) 104,107 110,787 120,471
Business 21,116 18,264 17,326
Expenditures by border, seasonal,
and other short-term workers 1,209 1,261 1,275
Other business travel 19,907 17,003 16,051
Personal 82,990 92,523 103,145
Health related 1,443 1,624 1,828
Education related 6,489 6,824 7,215
Other personal travel 75,058 84,075 94,102
