Gross domestic product by state: prototype quarterly statistics for 2005-2014.

Mead, Charles Ian

New prototype statistics on quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) by state were released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in September 2015. These new statistics improve upon the initial prototype statistics released in September 2014 by incorporating new and improved source data and by covering an additional year of economic activity. (1) The new statistics cover all quarters of 2005-2014 and provide detailed information for 21 industries.

The new statistics are intended to provide more precise and timely information on the accelerations, decelerations, and turning points in state-level economic activity, including information about changes in the industrial infrastructure of states. GDP by state statistics have traditionally been provided on an annual basis about 6 months after the end of a calendar year. Once the details regarding their regular production are finalized, BEA hopes the new quarterly statistics will provide an early read on the state-level economic activity within 6 months after the end of a quarter.

The most recent release of prototype statistics allows BEA to continue to solicit feedback from potential data users on the methodology used to calculate these new quarterly statistics. BEA had initially hoped to release these new statistics as an official product this September. However, based on user feedback, BEA decided to allow users the opportunity to comment on an additional year's worth of statistics before finalizing the methodology and introducing the statistics as an official data product.

The new prototype statistics are available on BEA's regional accounts Web site. Quarterly statistics on GDP by state are available for each state and the District of Columbia; they also provide detail for the 21 industries. These statistics are available in current dollars and in real chained (2009) dollars for 2005-2014.

The methodology used to estimate quarterly GDP by state when annual statistics on GDP by state are available was published in the October 2014 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS. The proposed methodology for quarters when no annual statistics are available is similar: initial quarterly estimates of GDP by state for 21 industries will be created by extrapolating GDP by state for previous quarters using the change in state earnings by industry from the state personal income statistics. These initial estimates will then be scaled to the quarterly national estimates of GDP by industry by allocating the difference between the two measures to the states.

The next release of quarterly statistics on GDP by state is planned for December 2015. The new statistics will incorporate new and improved source data and will include statistics for the first two quarters of 2015.

Comments on the potential uses of the statistics, the methodology, and the enhancements to the statistics are still being collected and should be directed to staff at gdpbystate@bea.gov. Provided that user evaluations are positive, the new quarterly statistics will become an official BEA product with the next release.

By Charles Ian Mead

(1.) See Lam Cao, Charles Ian Mead, Todd Siebeneck, and Catherine (Zheng) Wang "Prototype Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by State Statistics for 2005-2013," SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 94 (October 2014).