Integrated BEA/BLS industry-level production account update.

Dumas, Mark ; Howells, Thomas F., III ; Rosenthal, Steve 等

THE INTEGRATED industry-level production account for the United States was recently updated to cover 1998-2013; previously, it covered 1998-2012. The integrated production account combines industry-level output and intermediate inputs from the gross domestic production (GDP) by industry accounts of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) with information on capital and labor inputs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Productivity Program to form an internally consistent industry-level production account. The account contains detailed data on output and inputs in current and constant prices as well as multifactor productivity by industry (1) The production account reflects an ongoing collaboration between BEA and BLS.

Fleck and others (2014) describe the foundations of the account in detail, while Rosenthal and others (2014) expand the account to incorporate the results and the methodological changes of the 2013 comprehensive revision of the U.S. national income and product accounts, the 2007 benchmark input-output account, and the time series of integrated gross domestic product by industry and annual input-output accounts for the United States.

The update of the account to include statistics for 2013 contains the same basic structure as the statistics for 1998-2012. The underlying data for gross output, intermediate inputs, and value added are consistent with the results of the 2014 annual revision of the industry economic accounts, released on November 13, 2014. (2) Data on capital and labor inputs are consistent with the BLS measures of multifactor productivity released on June 23, 2015. (3)

Tables 1-3 and charts 1-6 update the results from Rosenthal and others (2014). For 1998-2013, aggregate value added increased by 1.96 percent per year on average. (4) Increases in capital input accounted for 1.14 percentage points (close to 60 percent of aggregate growth), growth in labor input accounted for 0.40 percentage point (about 20 percent), and increases in multifactor productivity accounted for 0.43 percentage point (a little more than 20 percent). Qualitatively, the results through 2013 are consistent with Rosenthal and others in attributing the majority of the difference in aggregate growth during the ongoing recovery (compared with the period preceding the recovery) to a decline in the contribution of capital input.

The underlying tables, which are available on BEA's Web site, allow users to translate the sources of growth in table 1 into each industry's contribution to aggregate value-added growth and each industry's contribution to aggregate capital, labor, and multifactor productivity growth.

In this update to Rosenthal and others (2014), the industry-level production account is used to analyze how the ongoing recovery compares with the period predating the 2007-2009 Great Recession. Declines in the contributions of capital input in 2009-2013 relative to 1998-2007 in real estate, in Federal Reserve banks, credit intermediation, and related activities, in retail trade, and in construction account for more than half of the relative decline in the contribution of capital inputs during the recovery. Mining-related industries' contribution of capital in 2009-2013 increased relative to the 1997-2007 period.

Almost all of the increase in the contribution of labor inputs in 2009-2013 relative to 1998-2007 was due to an increase in noncollege labor. (5) This increase was broad based across industries: 47 of the 63 industries had a larger contribution of noncollege labor during the ongoing recovery (compared with the prerecession period). Finally, the contribution of multifactor productivity growth for 2009-2013 was similar to the 1998-2007 contribution, but the sources across industries were significantly different. The contributions of computers and electronic products, broadcasting and telecommunications, and chemical products were significantly lower in 2009-2013, while the contributions of motor vehicles, construction, and real estate were significantly higher.

The following tables and charts provide additional information on the sources of growth across industries. The underlying data are available on the industry accounts section of BEA's Web site.

Bibliography

Fleck, Susan, Steve Rosenthal, Matthew Russell, Erich H. Strassner, and Lisa Usher. 2014. "A Prototype BEA/BLS Industry-Level Production Account for the United States." In Measuring Economic Sustainability and Progress, edited by Dale W. Jorgenson, J. Steven Landefeld, and Paul Schreyer. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, for the National Bureau of Economic Research

Howells, Thomas F., and Edward T. Morgan. 2014. "Industry Economic Accounts: Initial Statistics for the Second Quarter of 2014 and Revised Statistics for 1997-2013 and the First Quarter of 2014." SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 94 (December).

Rosenthal, Steven, Matthew Russell, Jon D. Samuels, Erich H. Strassner, and Lisa Usher. 2014. "Integrated Industry-Level Production Account for the United States: Sources of the Ongoing U.S. Recovery." SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS 94 (August).

Tables 1 through 3 and charts 1 through 6 follow.

By Mark Dumas, Thomas F. Howells III, Steve Rosenthal, and Jon D. Samuels

Tom Howells and Jon Samuels are economists at the Bureau of Economic Analysis; Mark Dumas and Steve Rosenthal are economists with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We thank Matt Calby, Justin Harper, and Amanda Lyndaker of BEA and Randy Kinoshita of BLS for their work on the estimates.

(1.) The industry-level production account and integrated multifactor productivity measures presented in this article reflect output consistent with GDP for the total economy, but differ in concepts and coverage from the official U.S. multifactor productivity measures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are available on the BLS Web site.

(2.) For details, see Howells and Morgan (2014).

(3.) See the release on the BLS Web site.

(4.) Log growth rates are used.

(5.) College labor includes workers with a BA degree and above; noncollege labor includes the remainder of workers.

Table 1. Sources of Industry Output Growth, 1998-2013
[Average annual growth rates]

                                Growth   Contributions
                                Output  Capital  Labor

Farms                            0.82    0.13    -0.08
Forestry, fishing, and
related activities               0.07    0.47     0.60
Oil and gas extraction           2.10   -0.12     0.18
Mining, except oil and gas      -0.28    0.83    -0.16
Support activities
for mining                       7.28    0.43     2.27
Utilities                       -0.48    0.63    -0.05
Construction                    -1.13    0.21     0.03
Wood products                   -1.53    0.01    -0.78
Nonmetallic mineral
products                        -1.66    0.17    -0.45
Primary metals                   0.69   -0.09    -0.55
Fabricated metal products       -0.28    0.07    -0.24
Machinery                        0.78    0.15    -0.42
Computer and electronic
products                         3.49    0.47    -0.84
Electrical equipment,
appliances, and
 components                     -1.79   -0.04    -0.53
Motor vehicles, bodies
and trailers, and
 parts                           1.40    0.08    -0.38
Other transportation equipment   1.62    0.24    -0.12
Furniture and related products  -2.20    0.11    -1.05
Miscellaneous manufacturing      1.75    0.41    -0.29
Food and beverage and
tobacco products                 0.29    0.19     0.03
Textile mills and textile
product mills                   -4.56   -0.20    -1.42
Apparel and leather and
allied products                 -6.84   -0.08    -2.75
Paper products                  -1.88   -0.17    -0.55
Printing and related
support activities              -2.61   -0.01    -1.29
Petroleum and coal products      0.86   -0.01    -0.02
Chemical products                0.29    1.07    -0.14
Plastics and rubber products    -0.79    0.11    -0.37
Wholesale trade                  2.59    1.01     0.14
Retail trade                     2.02    0.90     0.11
Air transportation              -1.51    0.08    -0.37
Rail transportation              1.11    0.09    -0.35
Water transportation             3.16   -0.10     0.21
Truck transportation             0.93    0.39    -0.06
Transit and ground passenger
 transportation                  1.15    0.40     0.50
Pipeline transportation         -2.21    1.08    -0.11
Other transportation
and support
 activities                      1.66   -0.07     0.19
Warehousing and storage          6.51    0.43     1.34
Publishing industries,
except internet
(includes software)              1.46    1.00    -0.30
Motion picture
and sound recording
industries                       1.52    1.14     0.19
Broadcasting and
telecommunications               4.37    1.66    -0.23
Data processing, internet
publishing, and
other information
services                         8.25    2.58    -0.40
Federal Reserve
banks, credit
intermediation, and
related activities               1.31    1.23     0.35
Securities, commodity
contracts, and
investments                      4.00    0.16     0.34
Insurance carriers
and related activities           3.22    0.98     0.29
Funds, trusts, and
other financial vehicles         2.66    0.22    -0.07
Real estate                      2.69    1.36     0.06
Rental and leasing
services and lessors
of intangible assets             1.98    2.67    -0.08
Legal services                  -0.13    1.02     0.40
Computer systems
design and related
services                         4.87    0.19     1.94
Miscellaneous
professional, scientific,
and technical services           2.53    0.74     0.89
Management of
companies and
enterprises                      2.92    0.67     1.23
Administrative and
support services                 2.73    0.78     0.67
Waste management
and remediation
services                         1.68    0.16     0.46
Educational services             3.08    0.22     1.66
Ambulatory health
care services                    3.25    0.20     1.55
Hospitals and nursing
and residential
care                             3.04    0.27     1.09
Social assistance                3.28    0.12     2.01
Performing arts,
spectator sports,
museums, and related
activities                       2.64    0.13     0.47
Amusements, gambling,
and recreation
industries                       2.15    0.62     0.62
Accommodation                    1.14    0.85    -0.01
Food services and
drinking places                  1.69    0.01     0.60
Other services,
except government               -0.01    0.45     0.15
Federal government               1.85    0.68    -0.03
State and local government       1.59    0.52     0.59

                                     Contributions
                                Intermediate  Integrated

Farms                             -0.52         1.29
Forestry, fishing, and
related activities                -1.53         0.52
Oil and gas extraction             0.90         1.13
Mining, except oil and gas        -0.10        -0.84
Support activities
for mining                         1.85         2.73
Utilities                         -1.09         0.03
Construction                      -0.40        -0.97
Wood products                     -1.30         0.54
Nonmetallic mineral
products                          -0.96        -0.42
Primary metals                     0.41         0.92
Fabricated metal products         -0.08        -0.02
Machinery                          0.68         0.38
Computer and electronic
products                          -2.17         6.03
Electrical equipment,
appliances, and
 components                       -1.82         0.61
Motor vehicles, bodies
and trailers, and
 parts                             0.64         1.05
Other transportation equipment     1.06         0.44
Furniture and related products    -1.16        -0.09
Miscellaneous manufacturing        0.73         0.90
Food and beverage and
tobacco products                   0.14        -0.07
Textile mills and textile
product mills                     -3.21         0.27
Apparel and leather and
allied products                   -5.03         1.02
Paper products                    -0.90        -0.25
Printing and related
support activities                -2.63         1.32
Petroleum and coal products        0.66         0.23
Chemical products                 -0.23        -0.42
Plastics and rubber products      -0.70         0.16
Wholesale trade                    1.21         0.22
Retail trade                       1.06        -0.05
Air transportation                -1.14        -0.08
Rail transportation                0.78         0.59
Water transportation               0.59         2.47
Truck transportation               0.38         0.22
Transit and ground passenger
 transportation                    0.81        -0.57
Pipeline transportation           -4.21         1.02
Other transportation
and support
 activities                        1.49         0.04
Warehousing and storage            3.64         1.10
Publishing industries,
except internet
(includes software)               -0.35         1.12
Motion picture
and sound recording
industries                        -1.19         1.39
Broadcasting and
telecommunications                 1.91         1.03
Data processing, internet
publishing, and
other information
services                           5.23         0.84
Federal Reserve
banks, credit
intermediation, and
related activities                -0.88         0.61
Securities, commodity
contracts, and
investments                        1.93         1.57
Insurance carriers
and related activities             1.98        -0.04
Funds, trusts, and
other financial vehicles           1.20         1.31
Real estate                        0.78         0.48
Rental and leasing
services and lessors
of intangible assets               1.24        -1.84
Legal services                     0.16        -1.71
Computer systems
design and related
services                           0.74         2.01
Miscellaneous
professional, scientific,
and technical services             1.09        -0.20
Management of
companies and
enterprises                        2.13        -1.11
Administrative and
support services                   0.27         1.02
Waste management
and remediation
services                           0.87         0.20
Educational services               1.73        -0.53
Ambulatory health
care services                      1.24         0.25
Hospitals and nursing
and residential
care                               1.93        -0.25
Social assistance                  1.68        -0.53
Performing arts,
spectator sports,
museums, and related
activities                         1.39         0.65
Amusements, gambling,
and recreation
industries                         1.20        -0.29
Accommodation                      0.33        -0.02
Food services and
drinking places                    0.91         0.17
Other services,
except government                  0.68        -1.30
Federal government                 1.09         0.11
State and local government         0.42         0.06

NOTE. Integrated estimates of multifactor productivity differ from the
official estimates produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS),
which are available on the BLS Web site.

Table 2. Growth in Aggregate Value Added and
the Sources of Growth
[Average annual growth rates]


                                      1998-  1998-  2007-  2007-
                                      2013   2007   2013   2009

 Value added (1)                      1.96    2.77   0.75  -1.57
Capital input (2)                     1.14    1.54   0.53   0.68
 Information technology capital (3)   0.29    0.40   0.12   0.20
 R&D capital                          0.09    0.09   0.08   0.10
 Software capital                     0.18    0.23   0.09   0.11
 Enter tainment originals capital     0.03    0.03   0.02   0.02
 Other capital                        0.56    0.79   0.21   0.24
Labor input (2)                       0.40    0.60   0.08  -1.31
 College labor                        0.53    0.63   0.39  -0.11
 Noncollege labor                    -0.14   -0.02  -0.31  -1.20
Integrated multifactor
productivity (2)                      0.43    0.63   0.13  -0.94

                                            2009-2013
                                     2009-    less
                                     2013   1998-2007

 Value added (1)                     1.90     -0.87
Capital input (2)                    0.46     -1.08
 Information technology capital (3)  0.09     -0.31
 R&D capital                         0.07     -0.01
 Software capital                    0.09     -0.15
 Enter tainment originals capital    0.02     -0.01
 Other capital                       0.19     -0.60
Labor input (2)                      0.78      0.17
 College labor                       0.64      0.01
 Noncollege labor                    0.14      0.16
Integrated multifactor
productivity (2)                     0.67      0.04

(1.) Aggregate value-added growth is the sum of share-weighted
value-added growth by industry.
(2.) The contributions of labor, capital, and integrated multifactor
productivity are the Domar-weighted sums of each industry's labor,
capital, or multifactor productivity contribution to industry output
growth.
(3.) Information technology (IT) capital consists of computer capital,
communications capital, and other IT capital.
NOTE. Integrated estimates of multifactor productivity differ from the
official estimates produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS),
which are available on the BLS Web site.

Table 3. Contributions to Aggregate Value-Added Growth
[Percentage points]

                                         1998-2013
                              Value  Capital  Labor  Integrated
                              added                     MFP

   Total economy              1.96    1.14     0.40    0.43
Agriculture, forestry,
fishing, and hunting          0.03    0.00     0.00    0.03
Mining                        0.06    0.01     0.01    0.03
Utilities                     0.01    0.02     0.00    0.00
Construction                 -0.06    0.02     0.01   -0.09
Durable goods                 0.23    0.04    -0.09    0.28
Nondurable goods              0.00    0.06    -0.04   -0.02
Wholesale trade               0.11    0.08     0.01    0.02
Retail Trade                  0.09    0.08     0.01    0.00
Transportation and
warehousing                   0.03    0.01     0.00    0.01
Information                   0.20    0.13    -0.02    0.09
Finance and insurance         0.23    0.11     0.04    0.08
Real estate and
rental and leasing            0.30    0.25     0.01    0.04
Professional, scientific,
and technical services        0.16    0.07     0.10   -0.01
Management of companies
and enterprises               0.02    0.02     0.03   -0.03
Administrative and waste
management services           0.10    0.03     0.03    0.04
Educational services          0.02    0.00     0.02   -0.01
Health care and social
assistance                    0.16    0.02     0.14   -0.01
Arts, entertainment,
and recreation                0.02    0.01     0.01    0.00
Accommodation and
food services                 0.04    0.01     0.02    0.01
Other services,
except government            -0.03    0.02     0.01   -0.05
Federal government            0.06    0.05     0.00    0.01
State and local government    0.19    0.09     0.09    0.01
Addenda:
Private economy components:
  Information technology
  -producing Industries       0.29    0.04     0.00    0.25
  Information technology
  -using Industries           1.00    0.62     0.31    0.07
  Noninformation
  technology industries       0.42    0.34    -0.01    0.09

                                         1998-2007
                              Value  Capital  Labor  Integrated
                              added                     MFP

   Total economy              2.77     1.54    0.60     0.63
Agriculture, forestry,
fishing, and hunting          0.03     0.00    0.01     0.02
Mining                        0.02     0.00    0.01     0.01
Utilities                     0.01     0.02    0.00     0.00
Construction                  0.00     0.05    0.09    -0.13
Durable goods                 0.36     0.05   -0.11     0.42
Nondurable goods              0.07     0.05   -0.05     0.08
Wholesale trade               0.22     0.12    0.03     0.07
Retail Trade                  0.15     0.12    0.02     0.00
Transportation and
warehousing                   0.05     0.02    0.00     0.03
Information                   0.28     0.16   -0.01     0.12
Finance and insurance         0.31     0.18    0.07     0.05
Real estate and
rental and leasing            0.38     0.39    0.02    -0.04
Professional, scientific,
and technical services        0.19     0.10    0.11    -0.02
Management of companies
and enterprises               0.01     0.02    0.03    -0.04
Administrative and waste
management services           0.12     0.04    0.04     0.04
Educational services          0.02     0.00    0.03    -0.01
Health care and social
assistance                    0.17     0.02    0.14     0.00
Arts, entertainment,
and recreation                0.02     0.01    0.01     0.00
Accommodation and
food services                 0.06     0.01    0.02     0.03
Other services,
except government            -0.02     0.02    0.01    -0.06
Federal government            0.06     0.05   -0.01     0.02
State and local government    0.26     0.10    0.14     0.02
Addenda:
Private economy components:
  Information technology
  -producing Industries       0.37     0.05   -0.02     0.34
  Information technology
  -using Industries           1.43     0.87    0.42     0.14
  Noninformation
  technology industries       0.64     0.47    0.06     0.10

                                         2009-2013
                              Value  Capital  Labor  Integrated
                              added                     MFP

   Total economy              1.90     0.46    0.78     0.67
Agriculture, forestry,
fishing, and hunting          0.02     0.01    0.00     0.00
Mining                        0.08     0.03    0.03     0.02
Utilities                     0.05     0.02    0.00     0.03
Construction                  0.00    -0.02    0.01     0.01
Durable goods                 0.33     0.01    0.08     0.24
Nondurable goods             -0.11     0.05    0.01    -0.17
Wholesale trade               0.13     0.06    0.04     0.04
Retail Trade                  0.09     0.03    0.03     0.03
Transportation and
warehousing                   0.07     0.00    0.05     0.02
Information                   0.11     0.08    0.00     0.04
Finance and insurance         0.16     0.00    0.04     0.11
Real estate and
rental and leasing            0.27     0.02    0.01     0.24
Professional, scientific,
and technical services        0.14     0.01    0.12     0.01
Management of companies
and enterprises               0.10     0.02    0.05     0.03
Administrative and waste
management services           0.12     0.01    0.08     0.03
Educational services          0.00     0.00    0.02    -0.02
Health care and social
assistance                    0.10     0.02    0.16    -0.08
Arts, entertainment,
and recreation                0.03     0.00    0.02     0.01
Accommodation and
food services                 0.07     0.00    0.04     0.03
Other services,
except government             0.00     0.00    0.01    -0.01
Federal government            0.05     0.05   -0.01     0.01
State and local government    0.08     0.06    0.00     0.02
Addenda:
Private economy components:
  Information technology
  -producing Industries       0.18     0.02    0.06     0.09
  Information technology
  -using Industries           0.98     0.23    0.53     0.22
  Noninformation
  technology industries       0.62     0.09    0.20     0.32

                                  2009-2013 less 1998-2007
                              Value  Capital  Labor  Integrated
                              added                     MFP

   Total economy             -0.87    -1.08    0.17     0.04
Agriculture, forestry,
fishing, and hunting         -0.01     0.01    0.00    -0.02
Mining                        0.07     0.04    0.03     0.00
Utilities                     0.04     0.00    0.00     0.03
Construction                  0.00    -0.07   -0.08     0.14
Durable goods                -0.03    -0.04    0.18    -0.18
Nondurable goods             -0.18     0.00    0.07    -0.25
Wholesale trade              -0.08    -0.06    0.01    -0.03
Retail Trade                 -0.06    -0.10    0.01     0.03
Transportation and
warehousing                   0.02    -0.02    0.04    -0.01
Information                  -0.16    -0.09    0.01    -0.08
Finance and insurance        -0.15    -0.18   -0.03     0.06
Real estate and
rental and leasing           -0.11    -0.37   -0.01     0.28
Professional, scientific,
and technical services       -0.06    -0.09    0.00     0.03
Management of companies
and enterprises               0.09     0.00    0.03     0.07
Administrative and waste
management services           0.00    -0.03    0.04    -0.01
Educational services         -0.02     0.00   -0.01    -0.01
Health care and social
assistance                   -0.06    -0.01    0.02    -0.08
Arts, entertainment,
and recreation                0.01    -0.01    0.01     0.01
Accommodation and
food services                 0.01    -0.01    0.02     0.00
Other services,
except government             0.02    -0.02    0.00     0.05
Federal government           -0.02     0.00    0.00    -0.01
State and local government   -0.18    -0.04   -0.15     0.00
Addenda:
Private economy components:
  Information technology
  -producing Industries      -0.19    -0.03    0.08    -0.24
  Information technology
  -using Industries          -0.45    -0.63    0.11     0.07
  Noninformation
  technology industries      -0.02    -0.38    0.14     0.22

NOTE. Aggregate value added growth for the total economy appears in the
top left corner of each panel with all other values representing
contributions to that total. Integrated estimates of multifactor
productivity differ from the official estimates produced by the Bureau
of Labor Statistics (BLS), which are available on the BLS Web site.