Advance estimates for the second quarter of 2014.

Crawford, Marissa J.

REAL GROSS domestic product (GDP) increased 4.0 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter of 2014 after decreasing 2.1 percent (revised) in the first quarter, according to the advance estimates of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) (chart 1 and table 1). (1)

The NIPA estimates for the first quarter of 2014 and for earlier years have been revised. For more information, see "Results of the Annual NIPA Revision" in this issue.

This upturn in the second-quarter percent change in real GDP primarily reflected upturns in inventory investment and in exports, an acceleration in consumer spending, an upturn in state and local government spending, an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, and an upturn in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by an acceleration in imports. (2)

* Prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents increased 1.9 percent in the second quarter after increasing 1.4 percent in the first quarter. Both food prices and energy prices accelerated in the second quarter. Excluding food and energy, gross domestic purchases prices increased 1.7 percent in the second quarter after increasing 1.3 percent in the first quarter (see table 3).

* Real disposable personal income (DPI) increased 3.8 percent in the second quarter after increasing 3.5 percent in the first quarter. Current-dollar DPI increased 6.2 percent in the second quarter after increasing 4.9 percent in the first quarter (see table 4). The sharper acceleration in current-dollar DPI than in real DPI reflected an acceleration in the implicit price deflator for consumer spending, which is used to deflate DPI.

* The personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of current-dollar DPI, was 5.3 percent in the second quarter; in the first quarter, the rate was 4.9 percent.

(1.) "Real" estimates are in chained (2009) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures. Each GDP estimate for a quarter (advance, second, and third) incorporates increasingly comprehensive and improved source data; for more information, see "Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components" in the August 2014 Survey of Current Business. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which assumes that a rate of activity for a quarter is maintained for a year.

(2.) In this article, "consumer spending" refers to "personal consumption expenditures," "inventory investment" refers to "change in private inventories," and "government spending" refers to "government consumption expenditures and gross investment."

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Real GDP Overview

Consumer spending accelerated in the second quarter, reflecting an acceleration in goods that was partly offset by a deceleration in services. The acceleration in goods was primarily due to accelerations in "other" nondurable goods, in clothing and footwear, and in furnishing and durable household equipment. The deceleration in services was more than accounted for by a downturn in electricity and gas services.

Nonresidential fixed investment accelerated, primarily reflecting an upturn in equipment. The largest contributor to the upturn was information processing equipment (specifically, computers and communication equipment).

Residential fixed investment turned up, primarily reflecting an upturn in "other" structures (specifically, brokers' commissions and other ownership transfer costs).

Inventory investment turned up, primarily reflecting an upturn in nonfarm inventories (mainly retail trade; construction, mining, and utilities; and manufacturing).

Exports turned up, reflecting upturns in both goods and services. The leading contributors to the upturn in goods were industrial supplies and materials (specifically, petroleum and petroleum products); automotive vehicles, engines, and parts; and nonautomotive capital goods. For services, the largest contributor was "other" business services, mostly financial services.

Imports accelerated, reflecting accelerations in both goods and services. In goods, the leading contributors to the acceleration were automotive vehicles, engines, and parts and nonautomotive consumer goods.

Federal government spending decreased more than in the first quarter. Nondefense spending turned down, and national defense spending turned up.

State and local government spending turned up, primarily reflecting an upturn in structures investment.

Real final sales of domestic product, real GDP less inventory investment, increased 2.3 percent in the second quarter after decreasing 1.0 percent in the first quarter.

Prices.

Prices paid by U.S. residents, as measured by the gross domestic purchases price index, accelerated, increasing 1.9 percent in the second quarter after increasing 1.4 percent in the first quarter. The acceleration was primarily accounted for by an acceleration in consumer prices and an upturn in prices for federal government spending that were partly offset by a downturn in the prices paid for residential fixed investment.

The acceleration in consumer prices primarily reflected an upturn in prices for goods (mainly for motor vehicle fuels). Within services, prices for household consumption expenditures for health care accelerated.

The downturn in prices paid for residential fixed investment primarily reflected a downturn in prices paid for the construction of new single-family structures.

The upturn in prices paid by the federal government primarily reflected an upturn in the prices paid for federal nondefense spending.

The upturn in prices paid for federal nondefense spending primarily reflected a return to a more normal pattern of change following the effects of the fourth-quarter shutdown (which reduced the hours worked by federal employees but boosted the fourth-quarter prices for employee compensation).

Consumer prices excluding food and energy, a measure of the "core" rate of inflation, picked up, increasing 2.0 percent after increasing 1.2 percent.

Note on Prices

BEA's gross domestic purchases price index is the most comprehensive index of prices paid by U.S. residents for all goods and services. It is derived from the prices of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private investment, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment.

BEA also produces price indexes for all the components of GDP. The PCE price index is a measure of the total cost of consumer goods and services, including durable goods, nondurable goods, and services. PCE prices for food, for energy goods and services, and for all items except food and energy are also estimated and reported.

Because prices for food and for energy can be volatile, the price measure that excludes food and energy is often used as a measure of underlying, or "core," inflation. The core PCE price index includes purchased meals and beverages, such as restaurant meals and pet food. (See the FAQ "What is the core PCE price index?" on BEA's Web site.)

BEA also prepares a supplemental PCE price index, the "market-based" PCE price index, that is based on market transactions for which there are corresponding price measures. This index excludes many imputed expenditures, such as financial services furnished without payment, that are included in PCE and in the PCE price index. BEA also prepares a market-based measure that excludes food and energy.

Personal Income

Personal income, which is measured in current dollars, accelerated in the second quarter, increasing $208.0 billion after increasing $176.6 billion in the first quarter. The acceleration primarily reflected an upturn in personal dividend income and a smaller decrease in farm proprietors' income that were partly offset by a deceleration in wages and salaries.

The deceleration in wages and salaries primarily reflected the pattern of monthly employment, hours, and earnings data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the second quarter.

The smaller decrease in farm proprietors' income was due to an acceleration in prices received by farmers and a smaller decrease in real farm output.

The upturn in personal dividend income was based on data from publicly traded corporate financial reports.

Government social benefits to persons decelerated. The deceleration primarily reflected decelerations in Medicaid and social security benefits. In the first quarter, Medicaid benefits were boosted by expanded coverage under the Affordable Care Act, and social security benefits were boosted by the 1.5 percent cost-of-living adjustment in January. In contrast, unemployment insurance benefits decreased less than in the first quarter following the expiration of Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits at the end of 2013. Other social benefits increased more, reflecting a larger increase in health insurance premium subsidies.

Personal current taxes decelerated, reflecting a downturn in state and local income taxes that was partly offset by an acceleration in federal income taxes.

Personal saving--disposable personal income less personal outlays--was $682.9 billion in the second quarter, increasing $53.9 billion after increasing $76.1 billion.

The personal saving rate was 5.3 percent in the second quarter; in the first quarter, the rate was 4.9 percent.

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Source Data for the Advance Estimates

Source Data and Key Assumptions for the Advance Estimates of GDP

The advance estimates of many components of GDP are based on 3 months of source data, but the estimates of some components are based on only 2 months of data. For the following items, the number of months for which data are available is shown in parentheses.

Consumer spending: sales of retail stores (3), unit auto and truck sales (3), consumers' shares of auto and truck sales (2), motor vehicle fuels data (3), and electricity and gas usage and unit-value data (3);

Nonresidential fixed investment: unit auto and truck sales (3), construction spending (value put in place) (2), manufacturers' shipments of machinery and equipment (3), and exports and imports of machinery and equipment (2);

Residential fixed investment: construction spending (value put in place) (2), single-family housing starts (3), sales of new homes (3), and sales of existing houses (3);

Inventory investment: trade and nondurable-goods manufacturing inventories (2), durable-goods manufacturing inventories (3), and unit auto and truck inventories (3);

Net exports of goods and services: exports and imports of goods and services (2) and values and quantities of petroleum imports (2);

Government spending: federal government outlays (3), state and local government construction spending (value put in place) (2), and state and local government employment (3);

Compensation: employment, average hourly earnings, and average weekly hours (3); and Prices: consumer price indexes (3), producer price indexes (3), and values and quantities of petroleum imports (2).

Key assumptions

When source data were unavailable, BEA made various assumptions for June, including the following (table 4):

* A decrease in nonresidential structures,

* A decrease in residential structures,

* An increase in nondurable-goods manufacturing inventories,

* An increase in nonmotor vehicle merchant wholesale and retail inventories,

* A decrease in exports of goods excluding gold,

* A decrease in imports of goods excluding gold, and

* A decrease in state and local government structures.

A more comprehensive list is available on BEA's Web site.

Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Related Measures
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

                             Share of
                             current-
                              dollar           Change from preceding
                                GDP              period (percent)
                             (percent)

                                 2014         2013            2014

                                   II     III      IV       I      II

Gross domestic product (1)      100.0     4.5     3.5    -2.1     4.0
Personal consumption
    expenditures                 68.6     2.0     3.7     1.2     2.5
  Goods                          23.0     3.5     3.7     1.0     6.2
    Durable goods                 7.5     4.9     5.7     3.2    14.0
    Nondurable goods             15.4     2.8     2.7     0.0     2.5
  Services                       45.7     1.3     3.7     1.3     0.7
Gross private domestic
    investment                   16.4    16.8     3.8    -6.9    17.0
  Fixed investment               15.7     6.6     6.3     0.2     5.9
    Nonresidential               12.5     5.5    10.4     1.6     5.5
      Structures                  2.9    11.2    12.8     2.9     5.3
      Equipment                   5.8     4.7    14.1    -1.0     7.0
      Intellectual
        property products         3.9     2.8     3.6     4.6     3.5
    Residential                   3.2    11.2    -8.5    -5.3     7.5
  Change in private
    inventories                   0.6     ...     ...     ...     ...
Net exports of goods and
services                         -3.3     ...     ...     ...     ...
  Exports                        13.5     5.1    10.0    -9.2     9.5
    Goods                         9.4     5.7    13.6   -11.9    12.9
    Services                      4.1     3.6     2.3    -2.8     2.3
  Imports                        16.8     0.6     1.3     2.2    11.7
    Goods                        14.0     0.1     0.9     2.5    13.3
    Services                      2.8     2.8     3.5     1.0     4.2
Government consumption
    expenditures and gross
    investment                   18.3     0.2    -3.8    -0.8     1.6
  Federal                         7.0    -1.2   -10.4    -0.1    -0.8
    National defense              4.4     0.4   -11.4    -4.0     1.1
    Nondefense                    2.6    -3.9    -8.6     6.6    -3.7
  State and local                11.3     1.1     0.6    -1.3     3.1
Addenda:
Final sales of
  domestic product               99.4     3.0     3.9    -1.0     2.3
Goods                            30.5    10.8     8.1    -8.5    10.5
Services                         61.9     1.1     1.8     1.4     0.4
Structures                        7.6     8.3    -0.4    -3.8     8.0
Motor vehicle output              2.9   -10.6    18.5     3.3    18.5
GDP excluding motor
  vehicle output                 97.1     5.0     3.1    -2.3     3.6
Final sales of computers          0.4    -4.0     6.2    17.8     7.7
GDP excluding final
  sales of computers             99.6     4.6     3.5    -2.2     3.9
Research and
  development (R&D)               2.5    -2.9    -0.8     2.9     0.8
GDP excluding R&D                97.5     4.7     3.6    -2.2     4.0

                                    Contribution to percent
                                      change in real GDP
                                      (percentage points)

                                   2013              2014

                               III       IV        I       II

Gross domestic product (1)     4.5      3.5     -2.1       4.0
Personal consumption
    expenditures              1.39     2.51     0.83      1.69
  Goods                       0.80     0.83     0.23      1.38
    Durable goods             0.36     0.42     0.23      0.99
    Nondurable goods          0.43     0.41     0.00      0.39
  Services                    0.59     1.69     0.60      0.31
Gross private domestic
    investment                2.50     0.62    -1.13      2.57
  Fixed investment            1.01     0.95     0.03      0.91
    Nonresidential            0.67     1.23     0.20      0.68
      Structures              0.29     0.34     0.08      0.15
      Equipment               0.27     0.76    -0.06      0.40
      Intellectual
        property products     0.11     0.14     0.18      0.14
    Residential               0.34    -0.28    -0.17      0.23
  Change in private
    inventories               1.49    -0.34    -1.16      1.66
Net exports of goods and
services                      0.59     1.08    -1.66     -0.61
  Exports                     0.67     1.30    -1.30      1.23
    Goods                     0.52     1.20    -1.18      1.14
    Services                  0.15     0.10    -0.12      0.10
  Imports                    -0.09    -0.22    -0.36     -1.85
    Goods                    -0.01    -0.12    -0.33     -1.73
    Services                 -0.08    -0.09    -0.03     -0.12
Government consumption
    expenditures and gross
    investment                0.04    -0.71    -0.15      0.30
  Federal                    -0.08    -0.79    -0.01     -0.05
    National defense          0.03    -0.55    -0.18      0.05
    Nondefense               -0.11    -0.24     0.17     -0.10
  State and local             0.13     0.07    -0.14      0.35
Addenda:
Final sales of
  domestic product            3.03     3.84    -0.95      2.29
Goods                         3.18     2.43    -2.69      3.08
Services                      0.74     1.10     0.86      0.28
Structures                    0.60    -0.03    -0.29      0.59
Motor vehicle output         -0.31     0.47     0.09      0.48
GDP excluding motor
  vehicle output              4.83     3.03    -2.20      3.47
Final sales of computers     -0.02     0.03     0.07      0.03
GDP excluding final
  sales of computers          4.53     3.47    -2.17      3.92
Research and
  development (R&D)          -0.08    -0.02     0.07      0.02
GDP excluding R&D             4.59     3.52    -2.18      3.93

(1.) The estimates of GDP under the contribution columns
are also percent changes.

NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA tables 1.1.1 and 1.2.1,
contributions are from NIPA tables 1.1.2 and 1.2.2, and
shares are from NIPA table 1.1.10, or they are calculated
from NIPA table 1.2.5.

Table 2. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases
[Percent change at annual rates; based on seasonally
adjusted index numbers (2009=100)]

                                          Change from
                                        preceding period
                                           (percent)

                                     2013              2014

                                 III       IV        I       II

    Gross domestic
    purchases (1)                1.7      1.4      1.4      1.9
Personal consumption
expenditures                     1.7      1.0      1.4      2.3
  Goods                          1.2     -1.4     -0.6      2.1
    Durable goods               -2.5     -2.6     -2.8     -1.1
    Nondurable goods             3.0     -0.9      0.6      3.6
  Services                       1.9      2.3      2.3      2.5
Gross private
domestic investment              2.1      2.2      2.4      0.8
  Fixed investment               2.0      2.6      2.8      1.0
    Nonresidential               1.2      1.3      1.4      1.2
      Structures                 2.2      3.9      2.3      1.1
      Equipment                  0.4     -0.2      0.8      1.2
      Intellectual
        property
        products                 1.6      1.7      1.7      1.3
    Residential                  5.5      7.6      8.6     -0.1
  Change in private
    inventories                  ...      ...      ...      ...
Government consumption
    expenditures and
    gross investment             1.4      2.4      0.4      1.3
  Federal                        1.2      5.3     -2.5      1.5
    National defense             1.0      3.1      0.1      1.4
    Nondefense                   1.5      9.0     -6.5      1.7
  State and local                1.5      0.6      2.2      1.1
Addenda:
Gross domestic purchases:
  Food                           1.1     -1.0      1.3      4.2
  Energy goods and services      6.8     -2.6      2.8      5.1
  Excluding food and energy      1.5      1.7      1.3      1.7
Personal consumption
expenditures (PCE):
  Food and beverages
    purchased for off-
    premises consumption         1.0      0.0      1.4      4.5
  Energy goods and services      6.6     -2.7      4.0      5.2
  Excluding food and energy      1.4      1.3      1.2      2.0
Gross domestic product (GDP)     1.7      1.5      1.3      2.0
Exports of goods
  and services                   0.7      0.3      2.8     -0.4
Imports of goods
  and services                   0.8      0.0      2.8     -0.4

                                         Contribution to
                                        percent change in
                                          gross domestic
                                         purchases prices
                                        (percentage points)

                                     2013              2014

                                 III       IV        I       II

    Gross domestic
    purchases (1)                1.7      1.4      1.4      1.9
Personal consumption
expenditures                    1.12     0.67     0.91     1.54
  Goods                         0.27    -0.32    -0.12     0.46
    Durable goods              -0.19    -0.19    -0.21    -0.08
    Nondurable goods            0.46    -0.13     0.08     0.53
  Services                      0.85     0.99     1.03     1.08
Gross private
domestic investment             0.31     0.34     0.38     0.13
  Fixed investment              0.30     0.38     0.42     0.15
    Nonresidential              0.14     0.16     0.17     0.15
      Structures                0.06     0.10     0.06     0.03
      Equipment                 0.02    -0.01     0.04     0.07
      Intellectual
        property
        products                0.06     0.06     0.06     0.05
    Residential                 0.16     0.23     0.25     0.00
  Change in private
    inventories                 0.01    -0.04    -0.05    -0.01
Government consumption
    expenditures and
    gross investment            0.26     0.43     0.07     0.22
  Federal                       0.09     0.36    -0.17     0.10
    National defense            0.04     0.13     0.00     0.06
    Nondefense                  0.04     0.23    -0.18     0.04
  State and local               0.17     0.06     0.24     0.12
Addenda:
Gross domestic purchases:
  Food                          0.05    -0.05     0.06     0.21
  Energy goods and services     0.24    -0.10     0.10     0.18
  Excluding food and energy     1.39     1.59     1.19     1.51
Personal consumption
expenditures (PCE):
  Food and beverages
    purchased for off-
    premises consumption         ...      ...      ...      ...
  Energy goods and services      ...      ...      ...      ...
  Excluding food and energy      ...      ...      ...      ...
Gross domestic product (GDP)     ...      ...      ...      ...
Exports of goods
  and services                   ...      ...      ...      ...
Imports of goods
  and services                   ...      ...      ...      ...

(1.) The estimates of gross domestic purchases under the
contribution columns are also percent changes.

NOTE. Most percent changes are from NIPA table 1.6.7;
percent changes for PCE for food and energy and services and
for PCE excluding food and energy are from NIPA table 2.3.7.
Contributions are from NIPA table 1.6.8. GDP export, and
import prices are from NIPA table 1.1.7.

Table 3. Personal Income and Its Disposition
[Billions of dollars; quarterly estimates
are seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

                                                      Level

                                                      2014

                                                    I           II

Personal income                              14,488.3     14,696.3
  Compensation of employees                   9,100.2      9,235.0
    Wages and salaries                        7,343.6      7,462.2
      Private industries                      6,129.1      6,242.8
        Goods-producing industries            1,237.8      1,259.2
          Manufacturing                         768.1        781.0
        Services-producing industries         4,891.3      4,983.6
          Trade, transportation,
            and utilities                     1,148.7      1,171.6
          Other services-producing
            industries                        3,742.6      3,812.0
      Government                              1,214.5      1,219.4
    Supplements to wages and salaries         1,756.6      1,772.8
  Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj      1,351.0      1,364.1
    Farm                                         58.1         56.9
    Nonfarm                                   1,292.9      1,307.2
  Rental income of persons with CCAdj           622.9        635.9
  Personal income receipts on assets          2,090.4      2,120.7
    Personal interest income                  1,262.4      1,266.9
    Personal dividend income                    828.0        853.9
  Personal current transfer receipts          2,470.9      2,504.4
    Government social benefits to persons     2,427.8      2,460.6
      Social security                           824.5        833.0
      Medicare                                  582.6        586.9
      Medicaid                                  467.6        474.2
      Unemployment insurance                     41.4         37.3
      Veterans benefits                          83.4         83.4
      Other                                     428.4        445.8
    Other current transfer receipts from
      business, net                              43.1         43.8
  Less: Contributions
    for government social
    insurance                                 1,147.0      1,163.7
  Less: Personal current taxes                1,712.5      1,727.7
  Equals: Disposable personal
    income (DPI)                             12,775.8     12,968.5
  Less: Personal outlays                     12,146.9     12,285.7
  Equals: Personal saving                       629.0        682.9
  Personal saving as a percentage of DPI          4.9          5.3
  Addenda: The effects
    of special factors on
    changes in DPI
  In government compensation:
    Federal pay raise                             ...          ...
    Federal civilian furloughs                    ...          ...
  In supplements to wages and salaries:
    FICA increase in
      maximum taxable wages                       ...          ...
  In personal dividend income:
    Accelerated dividends                         ...          ...
  In government social
      benefits to persons:
    Cost-of-living adjustments
      (COLAs) (1)                                 ...          ...
    Automatic Earnings
      Reappraisal Operation                       ...          ...
    Emergency unemployment compensation           ...          ...
    Affordable Care
      Act premium assistance
      refundable tax credit                       ...          ...
   Other refundable tax credits                   ...          ...
In employee contributions
   for government social
   insurance:
  FICA and SECA increase
    in maximum taxable
    wages                                         ...          ...
  SMI premium increase                            ...          ...
  Additional hospital insurance tax               ...          ...
  Expiration of the "payroll tax holiday"         ...          ...
In personal current taxes:
  Refunds, settlements, and back taxes            ...          ...

                                                  Change from
                                               preceding period

                                                      2013

                                                  III           IV

Personal income                                 116.1         64.3
  Compensation of employees                      45.3         75.2
    Wages and salaries                           34.4         63.2
      Private industries                         38.3         58.8
        Goods-producing industries                3.8         13.8
          Manufacturing                           1.2          6.9
        Services-producing industries            34.5         45.0
          Trade, transportation,
            and utilities                         5.5         12.2
          Other services-producing
            industries                           29.0         32.8
      Government                                 -4.0          4.4
    Supplements to wages and salaries            10.8         12.1
  Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj         15.9         -3.2
    Farm                                          3.2        -16.7
    Nonfarm                                      12.7         13.4
  Rental income of persons with CCAdj            13.4          9.1
  Personal income receipts on assets             25.0        -12.7
    Personal interest income                      5.0          4.7
    Personal dividend income                     20.0        -17.4
  Personal current transfer receipts             22.1          5.7
    Government social benefits to persons        21.8          5.7
      Social security                             7.5          6.4
      Medicare                                    5.3          4.3
      Medicaid                                   12.6         -1.3
      Unemployment insurance                     -5.2         -3.2
      Veterans benefits                           1.5          1.5
      Other                                       0.1         -2.0
    Other current transfer receipts from
      business, net                               0.2          0.1
  Less: Contributions
    for government social
    insurance                                     5.7          9.7
  Less: Personal current taxes                    0.9         26.6
  Equals: Disposable personal
    income (DPI)                                115.1         37.9
  Less: Personal outlays                        109.2        137.7
  Equals: Personal saving                         5.9        -99.9
  Personal saving as a percentage of DPI
  Addenda: The effects
    of special factors on
    changes in DPI
  In government compensation:
    Federal pay raise                             0.0          0.0
    Federal civilian furloughs                   -4.5          5.0
  In supplements to wages and salaries:
    FICA increase in
      maximum taxable wages                       0.0          0.0
  In personal dividend income:
    Accelerated dividends                         0.0          0.0
  In government social
      benefits to persons:
    Cost-of-living adjustments
      (COLAs) (1)                                 0.0          0.0
    Automatic Earnings
      Reappraisal Operation                      -0.3          2.7
    Emergency unemployment compensation          -5.0         -0.9
    Affordable Care
      Act premium assistance
      refundable tax credit                       0.0          0.0
   Other refundable tax credits                   0.0          0.0
In employee contributions
   for government social
   insurance:
  FICA and SECA increase
    in maximum taxable
    wages                                         0.0          0.0
  SMI premium increase                            0.0          0.0
  Additional hospital insurance tax               0.0          0.0
  Expiration of the "payroll tax holiday"         0.0          0.0
In personal current taxes:
  Refunds, settlements, and back taxes            0.0          0.0

                                                   Change from
                                                preceding period

                                                      2014

                                                    I           II

Personal income                                 176.6        208.0
  Compensation of employees                     153.4        134.8
    Wages and salaries                          135.1        118.6
      Private industries                        130.6        113.7
        Goods-producing industries               27.2         21.4
          Manufacturing                          14.0         12.9
        Services-producing industries           103.4         92.3
          Trade, transportation,
            and utilities                        13.8         22.9
          Other services-producing
            industries                           89.6         69.4
      Government                                  4.5          4.9
    Supplements to wages and salaries            18.3         16.2
  Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj          8.3         13.1
    Farm                                        -12.0         -1.2
    Nonfarm                                      20.3         14.3
  Rental income of persons with CCAdj             9.6         13.0
  Personal income receipts on assets             -3.8         30.3
    Personal interest income                     -0.8          4.5
    Personal dividend income                     -3.0         25.9
  Personal current transfer receipts             38.6         33.5
    Government social benefits to persons        38.1         32.8
      Social security                            15.6          8.5
      Medicare                                    5.3          4.3
      Medicaid                                   18.9          6.6
      Unemployment insurance                    -14.7         -4.1
      Veterans benefits                           1.8          0.0
      Other                                      11.3         17.4
    Other current transfer receipts from
      business, net                               0.5          0.7
  Less: Contributions
    for government social
    insurance                                    29.5         16.7
  Less: Personal current taxes                   24.4         15.2
  Equals: Disposable personal
    income (DPI)                                152.1        192.7
  Less: Personal outlays                         76.1        138.8
  Equals: Personal saving                        76.1         53.9
  Personal saving as a percentage of DPI
  Addenda: The effects
    of special factors on
    changes in DPI
  In government compensation:
    Federal pay raise                             2.6          0.3
    Federal civilian furloughs                    0.0          0.0
  In supplements to wages and salaries:
    FICA increase in
      maximum taxable wages                       1.7          0.0
  In personal dividend income:
    Accelerated dividends                         0.0          0.0
  In government social
      benefits to persons:
    Cost-of-living adjustments
      (COLAs) (1)                                14.2          0.0
    Automatic Earnings
      Reappraisal Operation                      -2.7          0.3
    Emergency unemployment compensation         -17.5         -0.8
    Affordable Care
      Act premium assistance
      refundable tax credit                       7.0         10.4
   Other refundable tax credits                   3.1          0.0
In employee contributions
   for government social
   insurance:
  FICA and SECA increase
    in maximum taxable
    wages                                         2.1          0.0
  SMI premium increase                            0.2          0.0
  Additional hospital insurance tax               0.4          0.0
  Expiration of the "payroll tax holiday"         2.6          0.0
In personal current taxes:
  Refunds, settlements, and back taxes           -6.1          0.0

(1.) Includes COLAs for social security, veterans benefits,
railroad retirement, and supplemental security income. In
the first quarter, the social security COLA boosted benefits
$12.2 billion.

Note. Dollar levels are from NIPA tables 2.1 and 2.2B.

FICA Federal Insurance Contributions Act

SECA Self-Employed Contributions Act

CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment

IVA Inventory valuation adjustment

SMI Supplementary Medical Insurance

Table 4. Source Data and Key Assumptions for the Advance Estimates
of GDP and Its Components for the First Quarter of 2014
[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

                                                    2014

                                        Jan.        Feb.       March

Private fixed investment:
  Nonresidential structures:
    Value of new nonresidential
      construction put in place        330.0       328.9       324.2
  Residential structures:
    Value of new residential
        construction
        put in place:
      Single family                    186.9       185.8       186.2
      Multifamily                       37.6        38.7        39.9
Change in private inventories:
  Change in inventories
    for nondurable manufacturing         5.3        19.3        -3.5
  Change in inventories
    for merchant wholesale
    and retail industries
    other than motor vehicles
    and equipment                       51.9        43.9        56.7
Net exports: (2)
  Exports of goods:
    U.S. exports of goods,
        international-
        transactions-
        accounts basis               1,602.9     1,564.7     1,628.6
      Excluding gold                 1,561.5     1,542.9     1,609.8
  Imports of goods:
    U.S. imports of goods,
        international-
        transactions-
        accounts basis               2,316.7     2,288.5     2,378.8
      Excluding gold                 2,301.2     2,274.7     2,362.2
  Net exports of goods                -713.8      -723.8      -750.2
    Excluding gold                    -739.8      -731.8      -752.4
State and local
    government structures:
  Value of new construction
    put in place                       238.2       237.4       241.8

                                                    2014

                                       April         May    June (1)

Private fixed investment:
  Nonresidential structures:
    Value of new nonresidential
      construction put in place        324.5       328.0       326.3
  Residential structures:
    Value of new residential
        construction
        put in place:
      Single family                    190.2       187.6       185.6
      Multifamily                       40.7        40.5        40.0
Change in private inventories:
  Change in inventories
    for nondurable manufacturing        22.8        17.9        20.2
  Change in inventories
    for merchant wholesale
    and retail industries
    other than motor vehicles
    and equipment                       68.2        22.3        75.3
Net exports: (2)
  Exports of goods:
    U.S. exports of goods,
        international-
        transactions-
        accounts basis               1,620.6     1,640.2     1,630.0
      Excluding gold                 1,603.9     1,625.2     1,613.2
  Imports of goods:
    U.S. imports of goods,
        international-
        transactions-
        accounts basis               2,408.6     2,399.7     2,393.6
      Excluding gold                 2,392.5     2,385.1     2,377.8
  Net exports of goods                -788.0      -759.5      -763.6
    Excluding gold                    -788.5      -759.9      -764.7
State and local
    government structures:
  Value of new construction
    put in place                       247.1       251.9       249.5

(1.) All the values are assumptions unless otherwise noted.

(2.) Nonmonetary gold is included in balance-of-payments
exports and imports, but it is not used directly in
estimating exports and imports in the national income and
product accounts.