GDP and the economy: second estimates for the fourth quarter of 2011.

Swann, Christopher

REAL GROSS domestic product (GDP) increased 3.0 percent at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to the second estimates of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) (chart 1 and table 1). (1) The second estimate of real GDP growth was revised up 0.2 percentage point from the advance estimate, reflecting an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment, a downward revision to imports, and an upward revision to consumer spending. (2) In the third quarter, real GDP increased 1.8 percent.

* Prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents increased 1.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point more than in the advance estimate. In the third quarter, prices increased 2.0 percent. In the fourth quarter, energy prices turned down, and food prices decelerated. Excluding food and energy, gross domestic purchases prices increased 1.2 percent after increasing 1.8 percent.

* Real disposable personal income (DPI) increased 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter, 0.6 percentage point more than in the advance estimate; real DPI increased 0.7 percent (revised) in the third quarter. Current-dollar DPI increased 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter, 1.1 percentage points more than in the advance estimate, after increasing 3.1 percent (revised) in the third quarter. The revisions to real and current-dollar DPI reflected an upward revision to personal income and a downward revision to personal current taxes. The fourth-quarter acceleration in real DPI, in contrast to the deceleration in current-dollar DPI, reflected a large deceleration in the PCE implicit price deflator that is used to deflated current-dollar DPI.

* The personal saving rate was 4.5 percent, 0.8 percentage point more than in the advance estimate; in the third quarter, the rate was 4.6 percent (revised).

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Real GDP Overview

The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an upturn in inventory investment and accelerations in consumer spending and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, a downturn in federal government spending, an acceleration in imports, and a larger decrease in state and local government spending.

The acceleration in consumer spending reflected an acceleration in spending for durable goods and an upturn in spending for nondurable goods that were partly offset by a slowdown in spending for services.

The deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment reflected a slowdown in equipment and software and a downturn in structures. (See page 4.)

The upturn in inventory investment was the largest contributor to the acceleration in real GDP. It reflected upturns in wholesale trade and in manufacturing industries. (See page 5.)

Exports slowed slightly, mainly reflecting a slight slowdown in exports of services. (See page 6.)

The acceleration in imports mainly reflected a pickup in imports of goods. (See page 6.)

The downturn in federal government spending reflected a downturn in defense spending. Nondefense spending turned up. (See page 7.)

The larger decrease in state and local government spending mainly reflected a larger decrease in consumption expenditures. (See page 7.)

Real final sales of domestic product, real GDP less inventory investment, decelerated, increasing 1.1 percent after increasing 3.2 percent.

Motor vehicle output accelerated, contributing 0.43 percentage point to real GDP growth after contributing 0.12 percentage point.

Final sales of computers slowed, contributing 0.12 percentage point to real GDP growth after contributing 0.22 percentage point.

Consumer Spending

Spending for goods accelerated, reflecting an acceleration in spending for durable goods and an upturn in spending for nondurable goods.

The acceleration in spending for durable goods primarily reflected a sharp acceleration in spending for motor vehicles and parts. In contrast, spending for "other" durable goods turned down.

The upturn in spending for nondurable goods primarily reflected an upturn in spending for clothing and footwear that was partly offset by larger decreases in food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption and in gasoline and other energy goods.

Spending for services slowed. Downturns in spending for housing and utilities and in financial services and insurance were partly offset by upturns in spending for "other" services and household spending for health care.

[GRAPHIC 2 OMITTED]

Private Fixed Investment

Private fixed investment decelerated, reflecting a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment that was partly offset by an acceleration in residential fixed investment.

The deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment reflected a deceleration in equipment and software and a downturn in structures.

The downturn in structures primarily reflected downturns in mining exploration, shafts, and wells and in commercial and health care.

The deceleration in equipment and software mainly reflected a downturn in "other" equipment (especially a downturn in agricultural machinery, a larger decrease in mining and oilfield machinery, and a slowdown in construction machinery). Industrial equipment and transportation equipment also slowed. In contrast, information processing equipment and software picked up.

The acceleration in residential fixed investment primarily reflected an upturn in "other" structures, mainly improvements, and an acceleration in single-family structures.

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Inventory Investment

Real inventory investment turned up in the fourth quarter, increasing $56.3 billion after decreasing $41.1 billion in the third quarter.

Inventory investment in manufacturing industries turned up, mainly reflecting a fourth-quarter accumulation in nondurable-goods industries after a third-quarter drawdown and a second-quarter accumulation.

Inventory investment in wholesale trade industries also turned up, primarily reflecting a fourth-quarter accumulation in merchant wholesale trade (nondurable goods) after a third-quarter drawdown and a second-quarter accumulation. In contrast, inventory investment in durable-goods industries in the fourth quarter decreased more than in the third quarter.

Inventory investment in retail trade industries turned down, primarily reflecting larger drawdowns by motor vehicles and parts dealers than in the third quarter. In contrast, inventory investment in "other" industries turned up.

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Inventory Investment

The change in real private inventories, often called real private inventory investment, represents the change in the physical stock of goods held by businesses. It includes finished goods, goods at various stages of production, and raw materials.

The change in private inventories is a key component of gross domestic product (GDP), which aims to measure output derived from current production. To include the value of currently produced goods that are not yet sold and to exclude the value of goods produced in previous periods, the change in private inventories must be included in the GDP calculation.

Thus, GDP can also be seen as the sum of final sales of domestic product and the change in private inventories (table 2).

For most industries, the estimates of change in private inventories are prepared by revaluing book-value estimates of inventories from the Census Bureau to a replacement-cost basis and calculating the change over a quarter or a year. BEA provides estimates for incomplete industry data.

Exports and Imports

Exports of goods and services slowed in the fourth quarter of 2011 reflecting slowdowns in exports of both services and goods.

The slight slowdown in exports of goods reflected a downturn in automotive vehicles, engines, and parts and a slowdown in nonautomotive capital goods that were largely offset by an upturn in foods, feeds, and beverages, a pickup in industrial supplies and materials, an upturn in "other" exports of goods, and a pickup in nonautomotive consumer goods.

The slowdown in exports of services mainly reflected downturns in travel and in passenger fares that were partly offset by pickups in royalties and license fees and in "other" private services.

Imports of goods and services picked up, reflecting pickups in imports of both goods and services.

The pickup in imports of goods reflected upturns in nonautomotive consumer goods and in "other" imports of goods, a pickup in nonautomotive capital goods, an upturn in petroleum and products, and a pickup in foods, feeds, and beverages. In contrast, automotive vehicles, engines, and parts turned down sharply, and nonpetroleum industrial supplies and materials decreased more than in the third quarter.

The pickup in imports of services mainly reflected an upturn in "other" transportation, a pickup in "other" " private services, and an upturn in direct defense expenditures. In contrast, travel services slowed, and passenger fares turned down.

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Government Spending

Government spending decreased more in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter, reflecting a downturn in federal government spending and a larger decrease in state and local government spending.

The downturn in federal government spending reflected a downturn in national defense spending that was partly offset by an upturn in nondefense spending. The downturn in national defense spending reflected downturns in consumption expenditures and in gross investment (both structures and equipment and software). The upturn in nondefense spending reflected an upturn in consumption expenditures that was partly offset by a downturn in gross investment, mainly in equipment and software.

The larger decrease in state and local government spending reflected a larger decrease in consumption expenditures and a downturn in gross investment as a result of a deceleration in equipment and software.

[GRAPHIC 6 OMITTED]

Government Spending

"Government consumption expenditures and gross investment;' or "government spending" consists of two components: (1) consumption expenditures by federal government and by state and local governments and (2) gross investment by government and government-owned enterprises.

Government consumption expenditures consists of the goods and services that are produced by general government (less any sales to other sectors and investment goods produced by government itself). Governments generally provide services to the general public without charge. The value of government production--that is, government's gross output--is measured as spending for labor and for intermediate goods and services and a charge for consumption of fixed capital (which represents a partial measure of the services provided by government-owned fixed capital).

Gross investment consists of new and used structures (such as highways and dams) and of equipment and software purchased or produced by government and government-owned enterprises.

Government consumption expenditures and gross investment excludes current transactions of government-owned enterprises, current transfer payments, interest payments, subsidies, and transactions in financial assets and nonproduced assets, such as land.

Prices

Prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents, as measured by the price index for gross domestic purchases, slowed in the fourth quarter, increasing 1.1 percent after increasing 2.0 percent. The largest contributor to the slowdown was a slowdown in consumer prices.

Consumer prices slowed, mainly reflecting a slowdowns in prices paid for goods.

The slowdown in goods prices reflected a slowdown in nondurable-goods prices that mainly reflected a downturn in prices paid for gasoline and other energy goods and a slowdown in prices of clothing and footwear. Durable-goods prices decreased more than in the third quarter, mainly reflecting a downturn in prices of motor vehicles and parts.

The largest contributor to the slowdown in services prices was a slowdown in prices paid for food services and accommodations.

Prices paid by government decelerated, reflecting a downturn in prices paid by the federal government that was partly offset by an acceleration in prices paid by state and local governments.

The downturn in prices paid by the federal government reflected a downturn in prices paid for national defense and a slowdown in prices paid for nondefense.

The pickup in prices paid by state and local governments reflected a pickup in prices paid for consumption expenditures.

The GDP price index increased 0.9 percent, 0.2 percentage point less than the increase in the price index for gross domestic purchases prices, reflecting a larger decrease in export prices (3.7 percent) than in import prices (1.3 percent).

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Note on Prices

BEA's gross domestic purchases price index is the most comprehensive index of prices paid by U.S. residents for all goods and services, regardless of whether those goods and services were produced domestically or imported. It is derived from prices of consumer spending, private investment, and government spending.

The GDP price index measures the prices of goods and services produced in the United States, including the prices of goods and services produced for export.

The difference between the gross domestic purchases price index and the GDP price index reflects the differences between imports prices (included in the gross domestic purchases index) and exports prices (included in the GDP price index). For other measures that are affected by import and export prices, see the dollar depreciation FAQ Answer ID 498 on BEA's Web site.

Revisions

The second estimate of the fourth-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.2 percentage point more than the advance estimate, primarily reflecting an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment, a downward revision to imports, and an upward revision to consumer spending. The average revision (without regard to sign) between the advance estimate and the second estimate is 0.5 percentage point.

The upward revision to consumer spending reflected an upward revision to services that was partly offset by a downward revision to goods.

The downward revision to goods was due to downward revisions to motor vehicle fuels, lubricants, and fluids (based on a revised consumer price index) and to food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption (based on revised retail sales data).

The upward revision to services was due to upward revisions to "other" services (based on newly available cellular telephone revenue data) and to financial services and insurance (based on newly available data from the Securities and Exchange Commission).

The upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment was more than accounted for by an upward revision to structures, mainly manufacturing structures, based on the incorporation of revised and newly available Census Bureau construction spending data.

The downward revision to imports was more than accounted for by a downward revision to goods, mainly petroleum and products (based on the incorporation of newly available data from the Census Bureau).

Source Data for the Second Estimates

Personal consumption expenditures: retail sales for October, November, and December (revised). Motor vehicle registrations for December (new). Energy Information Administration data for motor vehicle fuels, lubricants, and fluids for November (revised).

Nonresidential fixed investment: construction spending (value put in place) for October and November (revised) and December (new). Manufacturers' shipments (M3) of machinery and equipment for November and December (revised). Exports and imports for October and November (revised) and December (new).

Residential fixed investment: construction spending for October and November (revised) and December (new).

Change in private inventories: manufacturers' inventories for October, November, and December (revised) and trade inventories for October and November (revised) and December (new).

Exports and imports: international transactions accounts for October and November (revised) and December (new).

Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: state and local construction spending for October and November (revised) and December (new).

Prices: Seasonal adjustment factors for consumer price indexes.

Personal Income for the Third Quarter of 2011

With the release of the second estimates of GDP, BEA also releases revised estimates of various income-related measures for the previous quarter. This revision reflects the incorporation of newly available third-quarter tabulations from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Wage and salary disbursements increased $107.2 billion, an upward revision of $82.4 billion. Personal current taxes increased $12.9 billion, an upward revision of $0.6 billion. Contributions for government social insurance, which is subtracted in calculating personal income, increased $15.0 billion, an upward revision of $11.2 billion.

As a result of these revisions,

* Personal income increased $101.5 billion, an upward revision of $77.2 billion.

* Disposable personal income increased $88.5 billion, an upward revision of $76.6 billion.

* Personal saving decreased $23.4 billion, $76.6 billion less of a decrease.

* The personal saving rate was 4.6 percent, an upward revision of 0.7 percentage point.

(1.) "Real" estimates are in chained (2005) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures. Each GDP estimate for a quarter (advance, second, and third) incorporates increasingly comprehensive and improved source data; for more information, see "Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components" in the July 2011 Survey of Current Business. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which assumes that a rate of activity for a quarter is maintained for a year.

(2.) In this article, "consumer spending" refers to "personal consumption expenditures (PCE)," "inventory investment" refers to "change in private inventories," and "government spending" refers to "government consumption expenditures and gross investment:'

Christopher Swann prepared this article.

Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product and Components
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

                                           Share of
                                           current-
                                            dollar
                                              GDP
                                           (percent)

                                             2011

                                              IV

  Gross domestic product (1)                  100.0
Personal consumption
    expenditures                               71.0
  Goods                                        24.2
    Durable goods                               7.8
    Nondurable goods                           16.4
  Services                                     46.8

Gross private domestic
    investment                                 13.1
  Fixed investment                             12.6
    Nonresidential                             10.4
      Structures                                2.8
      Equipment and software                    7.6
    Residential                                 2.3
  Change in private inventories                 0.5

Net exports of goods and
    services                                   -3.8
  Exports                                      13.8
    Goods                                       9.8
    Services                                    4.1
  Imports                                      17.6
    Goods                                      14.8
    Services                                    2.8
Government consumption
    expenditures and gross
    investment                                 19.7
  Federal                                       8.0
    National defense                            5.3
    Nondefense                                  2.7
  State and local                              11.7

                                              Change from
                                            preceding period
                                               (percent)

                                                  2011

                                      I        II      III       IV

  Gross domestic product (1)          0.4      1.3      1.8      3.0
Personal consumption
    expenditures                      2.1      0.7      1.7      2.1
  Goods                               4.7     -1.6      1.4      4.9
    Durable goods                    11.7     -5.3      5.7     15.3
    Nondurable goods                  1.6      0.2     -0.5      0.4
  Services                            0.8      1.9      1.9      0.7

Gross private domestic
    investment                        3.8      6.4      1.3     20.6
  Fixed investment                    1.2      9.2     13.0      4.3
    Nonresidential                    2.1     10.3     15.7      2.8
      Structures                    -14.3     22.6     14.4     -2.6
      Equipment and software          8.7      6.2     16.2      4.8
    Residential                      -2.4      4.2      1.3     11.5
  Change in private inventories       ...      ...      ...      ...

Net exports of goods and
    services                          ...      ...      ...      ...
  Exports                             7.9      3.6      4.7      4.3
    Goods                            10.6      2.5      5.0      4.9
    Services                          1.7      6.2      4.0      2.8
  Imports                             8.3      1.4      1.2      3.8
    Goods                             9.5      1.6      0.5      3.4
    Services                          2.2      0.4      4.8      6.0
Government consumption
    expenditures and gross
    investment                       -5.9     -0.9     -0.1      4.4
  Federal                            -9.4      1.9      2.1     -6.9
    National defense                -12.6      7.0      5.0    -12.1
    Nondefense                       -2.7     -7.6     -3.8      4.4
  State and local                    -3.4     -2.8     -1.6     -2.5

                                         Contribution to percent
                                           change in real GDP
                                           (percentage points)

                                                  2011

                                      I        II      III       IV

  Gross domestic product (1)          0.4      1.3      1.8      3.0
Personal consumption
    expenditures                     1.47     0.49     1.24     1.52
  Goods                              1.10    -0.38     0.33     1.17
    Durable goods                    0.85    -0.42     0.42     1.10
    Nondurable goods                 0.25     0.04    -0.09     0.06
  Services                           0.36     0.87     0.90     0.35

Gross private domestic
    investment                       0.47     0.79     0.17     2.42
  Fixed investment                   0.15     1.07     1.52     0.53
    Nonresidential                   0.20     0.98     1.49     0.29
      Structures                    -0.40     0.54     0.37    -0.07
      Equipment and software         0.60     0.44     1.12     0.36
    Residential                     -0.06     0.09     0.03     0.25
  Change in private inventories      0.32    -0.28    -1.35     1.88

Net exports of goods and
    services                        -0.34     0.24     0.43    -0.07
  Exports                            1.01     0.48     0.64     0.59
    Goods                            0.94     0.24     0.48     0.47
    Services                         0.07     0.24     0.16     0.11
  Imports                           -1.35    -0.24    -0.21    -0.65
    Goods                           -1.29    -0.23    -0.08    -0.49
    Services                        -0.06    -0.01    -0.13    -0.16
Government consumption
    expenditures and gross
    investment                      -1.23    -0.18    -0.02    -0.89
  Federal                           -0.82     0.16     0.17    -0.58
    National defense                -0.74     0.37     0.27    -0.70
    Nondefense                      -0.08    -0.22    -0.10     0.12
  State and local                   -0.41    -0.34    -0.19    -0.30

(1.) The estimates under the contribution columns are also
percent changes.

NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 1.1.1, contributions
are from NIPA table 1.1.2, and shares are from  NIPA table
1.1.10.

Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Related Measures
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

                                        Share of
                                        current-
                                         dollar
                                           GDP
                                        (percent)

                                          2011

                                           IV

Gross domestic product (1)                100.0
    Final sales of domestic product        99.5
    Change in private inventories           0.5
  Goods                                    28.6
  Services                                 64.6
  Structures                                6.8

Addenda:
Motor vehicle output                        2.6
GDP excluding motor vehicle output         97.4
Final sales of computers                    0.6
GDP excluding final sales of
  computers                                99.4
Gross domestic income (GDI) (2)             ...

                                                 Change from
                                              preceding period
                                                  (percent)

                                                    2011

                                         I       II     III      IV

Gross domestic product (1)               0.4     1.3     1.8     3.0
    Final sales of domestic product      0.0     1.6     3.2     1.1
    Change in private inventories        ...     ...     ...     ...
  Goods                                  4.9    -0.6     2.2    12.2
  Services                              -0.1     1.8     1.2    -0.6
  Structures                           -13.1     5.0     5.8     0.7

Addenda:
Motor vehicle output                    59.2    -4.1     5.1    18.4
GDP excluding motor vehicle output      -0.7     1.5     1.7     2.6
Final sales of computers                14.7    13.0    42.1    21.3
GDP excluding final sales of
  computers                              0.3     1.3     1.6     2.9
Gross domestic income (GDI) (2)          2.4     0.2     2.6     ...

                                          Contribution to percent
                                            change in real GDP
                                             (percentage points)

                                                    2011

                                         I       II     III      IV

Gross domestic product (1)               0.4     1.3     1.8     3.0
    Final sales of domestic product     0.04    1.62    3.16    1.10
    Change in private inventories       0.32    0.28   -1.35    1.88
  Goods                                 1.36   -0.17    0.62    3.30
  Services                             -0.05    1.18    0.81   -0.37
  Structures                           -0.95    0.33    0.38    0.05

Addenda:
Motor vehicle output                    1.08   -0.10    0.12    0.43
GDP excluding motor vehicle output     -0.73    1.44    1.69    2.55
Final sales of computers                0.08    0.07    0.22    0.12
GDP excluding final sales of
  computers                             0.27    1.26    1.60    2.86
Gross domestic income (GDI) (2)          ...     ...     ...     ...

(1.) The estimates under the contribution columns are also percent
changes.

(2.) GDI is deflated by the implicit price deflator for GDP The
third-quarter change reflect the incorporation of revised wage and
salary estimates for the third quarter of 2011.

NOTE. For GDP and its components, percent changes are from NIPA
table 1.2.1, contributions are from NIPA table 1.2.2, and shares
are calculated from NIPA table 1.2.5. For GDI, percent changes are
from NIPA table 1.7.1.

Table 3. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

                                           Share of
                                           current-
                                            dollar
                                              PCE
                                           (percent)

                                              2011

                                              IV

  PCE (1)                                    100.0

Goods                                         34.1
  Durable goods                               11.0
    Motor vehicles and parts                   3.7
    Furnishings and durable
      household equipment                      2.4
    Recreational goods and
      vehicles                                 3.2
    Other durable goods                        1.7
  Nondurable goods                            23.1
    Food and beverages for off
      premises consumption                     7.5
    Clothing and footwear                      3.3
    Gasoline and other energy
      goods                                    3.9
    Other nondurable goods                     8.4
Services                                      65.9
  Household consumption
      expenditures                            63.2
    Housing and utilities                     17.8
    Health care                               16.0
    Transportation services                    2.9
    Recreation services                        3.8
    Food services and
      accommodations                           6.4
    Financial services and
      insurance                                7.5
    Other services                             8.9
  Final consumption expendi-
      tures of NPISHs (2)                      2.7
    Gross output of NPISHs (3)                10.8
    Less: Receipts from sales
      of goods and services by
      NPISHs (4)                               8.1

                                              Change from
                                           preceding period
                                               (percent)

                                                  2011

                                     I        II      III       IV

  PCE (1)                            2.1      0.7      1.7      2.1

Goods                                4.7     -1.6      1.4      4.9
  Durable goods                     11.7     -5.3      5.7     15.3
    Motor vehicles and parts        15.8    -25.5      1.6     37.9
    Furnishings and durable
      household equipment            3.5      3.1      5.6      8.6
    Recreational goods and
      vehicles                      15.3      8.9     12.1     11.7
    Other durable goods              8.5      6.1      2.6     -8.0
  Nondurable goods                   1.6      0.2     -0.5      0.4
    Food and beverages for off
      premises consumption           0.8      1.2     -0.1     -1.4
    Clothing and footwear            3.1      2.2     -7.8      3.2
    Gasoline and other energy
      goods                          0.0     -8.0     -1.5     -3.8
    Other nondurable goods           5.3      2.7      2.6      3.0
Services                             0.8      1.9      1.9      0.7
  Household consumption
      expenditures                   0.8      1.9      1.6      0.6
    Housing and utilities           -1.5      0.7      2.8     -2.7
    Health care                      0.6      2.8     -0.6      0.8
    Transportation services         -0.5     -0.2      0.3      1.6
    Recreation services             -2.0      9.2      7.5      3.1
    Food services and
      accommodations                 6.9      1.1      2.6      5.3
    Financial services and
      insurance                      4.3      1.3      3.5     -1.3
    Other services                   0.2      1.5     -0.8      3.8
  Final consumption expendi-
      tures of NPISHs (2)            0.6      0.8      9.7      5.0
    Gross output of NPISHs (3)      -1.7      1.4     -0.3      1.9
    Less: Receipts from sales
      of goods and services by
      NPISHs (4)                    -2.5      1.5     -3.4      0.8

                                        Contribution to percent
                                          change in real PCE
                                         (percentage points)

                                                 2011

                                     I        II      III       IV

  PCE (1)                            2.1      0.7      1.7      2.1

Goods                               1.57    -0.54     0.47     1.65
  Durable goods                     1.21    -0.59     0.60     1.55
    Motor vehicles and parts        0.53    -1.03     0.06     1.14
    Furnishings and durable
      household equipment           0.08     0.07     0.13     0.20
    Recreational goods and
      vehicles                      0.46     0.27     0.37     0.36
    Other durable goods             0.14     0.10     0.05    -0.15
  Nondurable goods                  0.36     0.05    -0.13     0.09
    Food and beverages for off
      premises consumption          0.06     0.09    -0.01    -0.11
    Clothing and footwear           0.10     0.07    -0.27     0.10
    Gasoline and other energy
      goods                        -0.23    -0.33    -0.06    -0.15
    Other nondurable goods          0.43     0.22     0.21     0.25
Services                            0.52     1.22     1.27     0.50
  Household consumption
      expenditures                  0.50     1.20     1.03     0.37
    Housing and utilities          -0.27     0.13     0.49    -0.49
    Health care                     0.09     0.45    -0.10     0.12
    Transportation services        -0.01    -0.01     0.01     0.05
    Recreation services            -0.07     0.33     0.27     0.12
    Food services and
      accommodations                0.42     0.07     0.17     0.33
    Financial services and
      insurance                     0.32     0.10     0.26    -0.09
    Other services                  0.02     0.13    -0.07     0.33
  Final consumption expendi-
      tures of NPISHs (2)           0.02     0.02     0.25     0.13
    Gross output of NPISHs (3)     -0.19     0.15    -0.03     0.20
    Less: Receipts from sales
      of goods and services by
      NPISHs (4)                   -0.21     0.13    -0.28     0.07

(1.) The estimates under the contribution columns are also percent
changes.

(2.) Net of expenses, or gross operating expenses less primary
sales to households.

(3.) Net of unrelated sales, secondary sales, and sales to
business, to government, and to the rest of the world; excludes
own-account investment (construction and software).

(4.) Excludes unrelated sales, secondary sales, and sales to
business, to government, and to the rest of the world; includes
membership dues and fees.

NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 2.3.1, and contributions,
from NIPA table 2.32; shares are calculated from NIPA table 2.3.5.

NPISHs Nonprofit institutions serving households

Table 4. Real Private Fixed Investment (PFI)
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

                                             Share of
                                             current-
                                              dollar
                                               PFI
                                            (percent)

                                               2011

                                                IV

    Private fixed investment (1)               100.0

Nonresidential                                  82.1
  Structures                                    22.1
    Commercial and health care                   4.7
    Manufacturing                                2.2
    Power and communication                      5.1
    Mining exploration, shafts,
      and wells                                  7.0
    Other structures (2)                         3.1
  Equipment and software                        60.0
    Information processing
        equipment and software                  29.6
      Computers and
        peripheral equipment                     5.6
      Software (3)                              14.2
      Other (4)                                  9.8
    Industrial equipment                        10.9
    Transportation equipment                     8.8
    Other equipment (5)                         10.7
  Residential                                   17.9
    Structures                                  17.4
    Permanent site                               6.5
      Single family                              5.7
      Multifamily                                0.8
    Other structures (6)                        11.0
  Equipment                                      0.5

                                               Change from
                                             preceding period
                                                 (percent)

                                                  2011

                                      I        II      III       IV

    Private fixed investment (1)      1.2      9.2     13.0      4.3

Nonresidential                        2.1     10.3     15.7      2.8
  Structures                        -14.3     22.6     14.4     -2.6
    Commercial and health care      -19.5     22.7     10.8    -16.9
    Manufacturing                   -20.5     55.4     35.6     23.0
    Power and communication         -33.3     13.0     19.6     23.1
    Mining exploration, shafts,
      and wells                       8.0     33.6      7.5    -18.7
    Other structures (2)            -11.1     -2.4     16.2     10.6
  Equipment and software              8.7      6.2     16.2      4.8
    Information processing
        equipment and software        0.3      8.9      1.2      4.2
      Computers and
        peripheral equipment         -0.7     50.5     12.1     15.4
      Software (3)                    2.0      8.0      8.0     -1.0
      Other (4)                       1.6     -6.7    -13.0      6.2
    Industrial equipment             11.7     -0.8     31.8     18.0
    Transportation equipment         37.8     14.9     33.0     17.6
    Other equipment (5)              12.6     -0.5     36.7    -13.4
  Residential                        -2.4      4.2      1.3     11.5
    Structures                       -2.6      4.2      1.2     11.7
    Permanent site                   -0.8     -4.6      7.6      9.9
      Single family                   1.3     -6.4      3.6      9.6
      Multifamily                   -15.0     10.0     41.6     12.3
    Other structures (6)             -3.7      9.8     -2.3     12.8
  Equipment                           3.3      3.3      5.5      4.8

                                    Contribution to percent change
                                    in real PFI (percentage points)

                                                  2011

                                      I        II      III       IV

    Private fixed investment (1)      1.2      9.2     13.0      4.3

Nonresidential                       1.67     8.39    12.69     2.32
  Structures                        -3.33     4.52     3.10    -0.58
    Commercial and health care      -1.07     1.02     0.53    -0.89
    Manufacturing                   -0.43     0.87     0.65     0.45
    Power and communication         -1.98     0.59     0.89     1.04
    Mining exploration, shafts,
      and wells                      0.52     2.11     0.55    -1.49
    Other structures (2)            -0.37    -0.06     0.47     0.31
  Equipment and software             5.00     3.87     9.59     2.90
    Information processing
        equipment and software       0.10     2.73     0.45     1.25
      Computers and
        peripheral equipment        -0.38     2.30     0.67     0.80
      Software (3)                   0.30     1.17     1.17    -0.15
      Other (4)                      0.18    -0.74    -1.39     0.59
    Industrial equipment             1.13    -0.05     2.98     1.79
    Transportation equipment         2.50     1.22     2.59     1.43
    Other equipment (5)              1.26    -0.03     3.57    -1.57
  Residential                       -0.46     0.78     0.28     1.96
    Structures                      -0.47     0.77     0.25     1.93
    Permanent site                  -0.05    -0.31     0.49     0.61
      Single family                  0.07    -0.38     0.21     0.52
      Multifamily                   -0.13     0.07     0.28     0.09
    Other structures (6)            -0.42     1.08    -0.24     1.32
  Equipment                          0.02     0.02     0.03     0.02

(1.) The estimates under the contribution columns are also percent
changes.

(2.) Consists primarily of religious, educational, vocational,
lodging, railroads, farm, and amusement and recreational
structures, net purchases of used structures, and brokers'
commissions on the sale of structures.

(3.) Excludes software "embedded," or bundled, in computers and
other equipment.

(4.) Includes communication equipment, nonmedical instruments,
medical equipment and instruments, photocopy and related equipment,
and office and accounting equipment.

(5.) Consists primarily of furniture and fixtures, agricultural
machinery construction machinery, mining and oilfield machinery,
service industry machinery, and electrical equipment not elsewhere
classified.

(6.) Consists primarily of manufactured homes, improvements,
dormitories, net purchases of used structures, and brokers'
commissions on the sale of residential structures.

NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 5.3.1, contributions are
from NIPA table 5.3.2, and shares are calculated from NIPA table
5.3.5.

Table 5. Change in Real Private Inventories by Industry
[Billions of chained (2005) dollars; seasonally adjusted
at annual rates]

                                               Level

                                                2010

                                                 IV

  Change in private Inventories (1)             38.3

Farm                                            -5.2
Mining, utilities, and construction             -1.6
Manufacturing                                   39.7
  Durable-goods industries                      19.4
  Nondurable-goods industries                   20.1
Wholesale trade                                 16.5
  Durable-goods industries                      13.9
  Nondurable-goodsindustries                     3.3
Retail trade                                   -13.7
  Motor vehicle and parts dealers              -17.7
  Food and beverage stores                      -0.5
  General merchandise stores                     1.4
  Other retail stores                            2.2

Other industries                                 1.2

Residual (2)                                     1.8

Addenda: Ratios of private
  inventories to final sales of
  domestic business: (3)
  Private inventories to final sales             2.3
  Nonfarm inventories to final sales             2.1
  Nonfarm inventories to final sales
    of goods and structures                      3.9

                                                   Level

                                                    2011

                                          I      II     III      IV

  Change in private Inventories (1)     49.1    39.1    -2.0    54.3

Farm                                    -7.8    -8.7     0.0    -5.6
Mining, utilities, and construction     -1.2     2.5    -0.8    13.5
Manufacturing                           33.3    24.2    11.3    32.9
  Durable-goods industries              27.3    21.2    19.1    19.3
  Nondurable-goods industries            7.0     4.0    -5.9    13.5
Wholesale trade                         22.3    39.0     6.4    30.3
  Durable-goods industries              15.2    30.6    23.2    12.8
  Nondurable-goodsindustries             7.5    10.1   -12.4    16.3
Retail trade                            -0.7   -20.5   -12.7   -20.7
  Motor vehicle and parts dealers       -9.1   -23.0   -11.1   -17.3
  Food and beverage stores              -0.3     2.1     1.3    -0.4
  General merchandise stores             3.7    -0.9    -0.2     1.5
  Other retail stores                    4.3    -0.4    -3.5    -5.5

Other industries                         3.9     1.5    -0.4     3.0

Residual (2)                            -1.4     0.1    -5.3     3.2

Addenda: Ratios of private
  inventories to final sales of
  domestic business: (3)
  Private inventories to final sales     2.3     2.3     2.3     2.3
  Nonfarm inventories to final sales     2.1     2.2     2.1     2.1
  Nonfarm inventories to final sales
    of goods and structures              3.9     4.0     3.9     3.9

                                                Change from
                                             preceding quarter

                                                    2011

                                          I       II     III      IV

  Change in private Inventories (1)      10.8   -10.0   -41.1    58.3

Farm                                     -2.6    -0.9     2.7     0.4
Mining, utilities, and construction       0.4     3.7    -3.3    14.3
Manufacturing                            -6.4    -9.1   -12.9    21.6
  Durable-goods industries                7.9    -6.1    -2.1     0.2
  Nondurable-goods industries           -13.1    -3.0    -9.9    19.4
Wholesale trade                           5.8    16.7   -32.6    23.9
  Durable-goods industries                1.3    15.4    -7.4   -10.4
  Nondurable-goodsindustries              4.2     2.6   -22.5    28.7
Retail trade                             13.0   -19.8     7.8    -8.0
  Motor vehicle and parts dealers         8.6   -13.9    11.9    -0.2
  Food and beverage stores                0.2     2.4    -0.8    -1.7
  General merchandise stores              2.3    -4.6     0.7     1.7
  Other retail stores                     2.1    -4.7    -3.1    -2.0

Other industries                          2.7    -2.4    -1.9     3.4

Residual (2)                              ...     ...     ...     ...

Addenda: Ratios of private
  inventories to final sales of
  domestic business: (3)
  Private inventories to final sales      ...     ...     ...     ...
  Nonfarm inventories to final sales      ...     ...     ...     ...
  Nonfarm inventories to final sales
    of goods and structures               ...     ...     ...     ...

(1.) The levels are from NIPA table 5.6.613.

(2.) The residual is the difference between the first line and the
sum of the most detailed lines.

(3.) The ratios are from NIPA table 5.7.613.

Note. The chained-dollar series are calculated as the
period-to-period change in end-of-period inventories. Quarterly
changes are stated at annual rates. Because the formula for the
chain-type quantity indexes uses weights of more than one period,
chained-dollar estimates are usually not additive.

Table 6. Real Exports and Imports of Goods and Services
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

                                               Share of
                                               current-
                                                dollar
                                               exports
                                                 and
                                               imports
                                              (percent)

                                                 2011

                                                  IV

  Exports of goods and
    services (1)                                  100.0

Exports of goods (2)                               70.5
  Foods, feeds, and beverages                       5.8
  Industrial supplies and
    materials                                      23.1
  Capital goods, except
    automotive                                     23.8
  Automotive vehicles, engines,
    and parts                                       6.4
  Consumer goods, except
    automotive                                      8.5
  Other                                             3.0

Exports of services (2)                            29.5

  Imports of goods and
    services (1)                                  100.0

Imports of goods (2)                               84.0
  Foods, feeds, and beverages                       4.2
  Industrial supplies and
    materials, except petroleum
    and products                                   10.7
  Petroleum and products                           17.2
  Capital goods, except
    automotive                                     19.7
  Automotive vehicles, engines,
    and parts                                       9.9
  Consumer goods, except
    automotive                                     19.3
  Other                                             3.2
Imports of services (2)                            16.0

Addenda:
  Exports of agricultural goods (3)                 6.3
  Exports of nonagricultural
    goods                                          64.3
  Imports of nonpetroleum
    goods                                          66.9

                                                 Change from
                                              preceding period
                                                  (percent)

                                                    2011

                                         I       II     III      IV

  Exports of goods and
    services (1)                         7.9     3.6     4.7     4.3

Exports of goods (2)                    10.6     2.5     5.0     4.9
  Foods, feeds, and beverages           -9.6    -7.4   -19.5     6.5
  Industrial supplies and
    materials                           15.3    -0.2     4.4     9.3
  Capital goods, except
    automotive                           4.9    15.7    10.1     1.9
  Automotive vehicles, engines,
    and parts                           48.2    -1.0    28.0    -9.1
  Consumer goods, except
    automotive                         -10.5    15.2     1.5     8.2
  Other                                 90.0   -23.5    -8.6    16.2

Exports of services (2)                  1.7     6.2     4.0     2.8

  Imports of goods and
    services (1)                         8.3     1.4     1.2     3.8

Imports of goods (2)                     9.5     1.6     0.5     3.4
  Foods, feeds, and beverages            8.6     3.8     4.8    18.1
  Industrial supplies and
    materials, except petroleum
    and products                        20.3    23.5    -2.5   -11.6
  Petroleum and products                13.2   -11.3    -5.8     3.4
  Capital goods, except
    automotive                          11.4    16.8     1.9    12.5
  Automotive vehicles, engines,
    and parts                           40.2   -37.7    70.6    -2.0
  Consumer goods, except
    automotive                           8.6     4.8   -11.1     0.1
  Other                                -64.9    54.2   -37.1    29.0
Imports of services (2)                  2.2     0.4     4.8     6.0

Addenda:
  Exports of agricultural goods (3)     -0.3   -17.9   -24.9    12.5
  Exports of nonagricultural
    goods                               11.9     5.1     8.6     4.2
  Imports of nonpetroleum
    goods                                8.7     5.2     2.3     3.4

                                              Contribution to
                                             percent change in
                                         real exports and imports
                                             (percentage points)

                                                    2011

                                         I       II     III      IV

  Exports of goods and
    services (1)                         7.9     3.6     4.7     4.3

Exports of goods (2)                    7.33    1.79    3.51    3.44
  Foods, feeds, and beverages          -0.61   -0.47   -1.29    0.37
  Industrial supplies and
    materials                           3.30   -1.48    1.04    2.10
  Capital goods, except
    automotive                          1.18    3.43    2.31    0.46
  Automotive vehicles, engines,
    and parts                           2.47   -0.06    1.58   -0.61
  Consumer goods, except
    automotive                         -0.95    1.20    0.13    0.67
  Other                                 1.95   -0.83   -0.26    0.44

Exports of services (2)                 0.52    1.77    1.15    0.83

  Imports of goods and
    services (1)                        8.30    1.40    1.20    3.80

Imports of goods (2)                    7.92    1.31    0.46    2.85
  Foods, feeds, and beverages           0.34    0.15    0.19    0.69
  Industrial supplies and
    materials, except petroleum
    and products                        2.04    2.37   -0.28   -1.37
  Petroleum and products                2.02   -2.11   -1.05    0.58
  Capital goods, except
    automotive                          2.14    2.97    0.36    2.32
  Automotive vehicles, engines,
    and parts                           3.36   -4.39    4.98   -0.20
  Consumer goods, except
    automotive                          1.72    0.93   -2.28    0.03
  Other                                -3.71    1.38   -1.46    0.79
Imports of services (2)                 0.38    0.07    0.75    0.94

Addenda:
  Exports of agricultural goods (3)      ...     ...     ...     ...
  Exports of nonagricultural
    goods                                ...     ...     ...     ...
  Imports of nonpetroleum
    goods                                ...     ...     ...     ...

(1.) The estimates under the contribution columns are also percent
changes.

(2.) Exports and imports of certain goods, primarily military
equipment purchased and sold by the federal government, are
included in services.

(3.) Includes parts of foods, feeds, and beverages, of nondurable
industrial supplies and materials, and of nondurable nonautomotive
consumer goods.

NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 4.2.1, contributions are
from NIPA table 4.2.2, and shares are calculated from NIPA table
4.2.5.

Table 7. Real Government Consumption Expenditures
and Gross Investment (CEGI)

[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

                                        Share of
                                        current-
                                         dollar
                                          CEGI
                                        (percent)

                                           2011

                                            IV

Government consumption expen-
    ditures and gross Investment (1)       100.0
  Consumption expenditures                  84.1
  Gross investment                          15.9
Federal                                     40.6
  National defense                          27.0
    Consumption expenditures                23.5
    Gross investment                         3.5
  Nondefense                                13.6
    Consumption expenditures                11.8
    Gross investment                         1.7
State and local                             59.4
  Consumption expenditures                  48.7
  Gross investment                          10.8

                                                 Change from
                                              preceding period
                                                   (percent)

                                                     2011

                                          I       II     III      IV

Government consumption expen-
    ditures and gross Investment (1)     -0.9    -0.9    -0.1    -4.4
  Consumption expenditures               -2.4     0.5    -0.7    -3.9
  Gross investment                      -21.6    -7.8     3.3    -6.5
Federal                                  -9.4     1.9     2.1    -6.9
  National defense                      -12.6     7.0     5.0   -12.1
    Consumption expenditures             -7.3     9.1     4.0   -10.9
    Gross investment                    -39.1    -0.8    11.9   -19.1
  Nondefense                             -2.7    -7.6    -0.8     4.4
    Consumption expenditures             -2.4    -8.0    -4.9     6.8
    Gross investment                     -5.3    -5.0     4.2   -10.5
State and local                          -0.4    -2.8    -1.6    -2.5
  Consumption expenditures                0.0    -1.4    -2.0    -2.8
  Gross investment                      -16.9    -8.9     0.4    -1.2

                                           Contribution to percent
                                             change in real CEGI
                                             (percentage points)

                                                     2011

                                          I       II     III      IV

Government consumption expen-
    ditures and gross Investment (1)     -5.9    -0.9    -0.1    -4.4
  Consumption expenditures              -1.95    0.40   -0.61   -3.31
  Gross investment                      -3.91   -1.29    0.52   -1.05
Federal                                 -0.90    0.78    0.83   -2.86
  National defense                      -0.54    1.84    1.34   -0.46
    Consumption expenditures            -1.70    2.05    0.94   -2.72
    Gross investment                    -1.84   -0.21    0.40   -0.74
  Nondefense                            -0.36   -1.07   -0.51    0.60
    Consumption expenditures            -0.27   -0.98   -0.58    0.79
    Gross investment                    -0.09   -0.09    0.07   -0.19
State and local                         -1.97   -1.67   -0.93   -1.50
  Consumption expenditures               0.01   -0.68   -0.97   -1.38
  Gross investment                      -1.98   -0.99    0.05   -0.12

(1.) The estimates under the contribution columns are also
percent changes.

NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 3.9.1, contributions
from NIPA table 3.9.2, and shares are  calculated from NIPA table
3.9.5.

Table 8. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases
[Percent change at annual rates; based on seasonally
adjusted index numbers (2005=100)]

                                                  Change from
                                               preceding period
                                                   (percent)

                                                     2011

                                           I       II     III      IV

Gross domestic purchases (1)               4.0     3.3     2.0     1.1

Personal consumption expenditures          3.9     3.3     2.3     1.2
  Goods                                    8.0     5.1     2.9     0.0
    Durable goods                         -0.6     1.7    -0.5    -2.5
    Nondurable goods                      12.4     6.7     4.5     1.2
  Services                                 1.9     2.4     2.1     1.8

Gross private domestic investment          2.1     2.2     1.1     1.3
  Fixed investment                         1.4     2.4     1.5     1.3
    Nonresidential                         1.4     2.5     1.8     1.6
      Structures                           5.0     6.1     5.6     4.6
      Equipment and software               0.2     1.2     0.4     0.5
    Residential                            1.5     2.0     0.3    -0.2
  Change in private inventories            ...     ...     ...     ...

Government consumption expenditures
    and gross investment                   5.4     4.2     1.3     0.9
  Federal                                  5.3     3.8     1.8    -0.4
    National defense                       6.3     3.8     1.5    -0.6
    Nondefense                             3.4     3.7     2.3     0.1
  State and local                          5.5     4.5     0.9     1.8

Addenda:
Gross domestic purchases:
  Food                                     5.9     5.7     4.2     3.5
  Energy goods and services               42.4    15.0     3.2    -3.0
  Excluding food and energy                2.4     2.7     1.8     1.2
Personal consumption expenditures
    (PCE):
  Food and beverages for off-premises
    consumption                            6.5     6.4     4.7     3.3
  Energy goods and services               40.7    15.0     3.3    -3.2
  Excluding food and energy                1.6     2.3     2.1     1.3
Gross domestic product (GDP)               2.5     2.5     2.6     0.9
Exports                                   11.0     8.8     1.9    -3.7
Imports                                   19.1    12.5    -1.3    -1.3

                                           Contribution to percent
                                                change in gross
                                           domestic purchases prices
                                             (percentage points)

                                                  2011

                                           I       II     III      IV

Gross domestic purchases (1)               4.0     3.3     2.0     1.1

Personal consumption expenditures         2.67    2.26    1.60    0.80
  Goods                                   1.80    1.17    0.67    0.01
    Durable goods                        -0.04    0.13   -0.04   -0.19
    Nondurable goods                      1.84    1.04    0.71    0.19
  Services                                0.87    1.09    0.93    0.80

Gross private domestic investment         0.26    0.27    0.14    0.16
  Fixed investment                        0.17    0.28    0.18    0.15
    Nonresidential                        0.14    0.24    0.17    0.16
      Structures                          0.12    0.15    0.15    0.12
      Equipment and software              0.01    0.09    0.03    0.04
    Residential                           0.03    0.04    0.01   -0.01
  Change in private inventories           0.09   -0.01   -0.04    0.01

Government consumption expenditures
    and gross investment                  1.05    0.81    0.24    0.18
  Federal                                 0.42    0.30    0.14   -0.03
    National defense                      0.33    0.20    0.08   -0.03
    Nondefense                            0.09    0.10    0.06    0.00
  State and local                         0.63    0.52    0.10    0.21

Addenda:
Gross domestic purchases:
  Food                                    0.29    0.28    0.21    0.18
  Energy goods and services               1.49    0.60    0.13   -0.13
  Excluding food and energy               2.20    2.46    1.64    1.10
Personal consumption expenditures
    (PCE):
  Food and beverages for off-premises
    consumption                            ...     ...     ...     ...
  Energy goods and services                ...     ...     ...     ...
  Excluding food and energy                ...     ...     ...     ...
Gross domestic product (GDP)               ...     ...     ...     ...
Exports                                    ...     ...     ...     ...
Imports                                    ...     ...     ...     ...

(1.) The estimates under the contribution columns are also
percent changes

NOTE. Most percent changes are from NIPA table 1.6.7; percent
changes for PCE for food and energy goods  and services and for
PCE excluding food and energy are calculated from index numbers
in NIPA table 2.3.4.  Contributions are from NIPA table 1.6.8.
GDP, export, and import prices are from NIPA tablel.1.7.

Table 9. Advance and Second Estimates for the Fourth Quarter of 2011
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

                                                   Change from
                                                preceding quarter
                                                     (percent)

                                                               Second
                                                               minus
                                           Advance   Second   advance

    Gross domestic product (GDP) (1)          2.8      3.0        0.2

Personal consumption expenditures             2.0      2.1        0.1
  Goods                                       5.7      4.9       -0.8
    Durable goods                            14.8     15.3        0.5
    Nondurable goods                          1.7      0.4       -1.3
  Services                                    0.2      0.7        0.5
Gross private domestic investment            20.0     20.6        0.6
  Fixed investment                            3.3      4.3        1.0
    Nonresidential                            1.7      2.8        1.1
      Structures                             -7.2     -2.6        4.6
      Equipment and software                  5.2      4.8       -0.4
    Residential                              10.9     11.5        0.6
  Change in private inventories               ...      ...        ...
Net exports of goods and services             ...      ...        ...
  Exports                                     4.7      4.3       -0.4
    Goods                                     5.0      4.9       -0.1
    Services                                  3.9      2.8       -1.1
  Imports                                     4.4      3.8       -0.6
    Goods                                     4.1      3.4       -0.7
    Services                                  5.6      6.0        0.4
Government consumption expenditures and
    gross investment                         -4.6     -4.4        0.2
  Federal                                    -7.3     -6.9        0.4
    National defense                        -12.5    -12.1        0.4
    Nondefense                                4.2      4.4        0.2
  State and local                            -2.6     -2.5        0.1

Addenda:
  Final sales of domestic product             0.8      1.1        0.3
  Gross domestic purchases price index        0.8      1.1        0.3
  GDP price index                             0.4      0.9        0.5

                                            Contribution to percent
                                               change in real GDP
                                               (percentage points)

                                                              Second
                                                               minus
                                           Advance   Second   advance

    Gross domestic product (GDP) (1)          2.8      3.0       0.2

Personal consumption expenditures            1.45     1.52      0.07
  Goods                                      1.34     1.17     -0.17
    Durable goods                            1.07     1.10      0.03
    Nondurable goods                         0.27     0.06     -0.21
  Services                                   0.10     0.35      0.25
Gross private domestic investment            2.35     2.42      0.07
  Fixed investment                           0.41     0.53      0.12
    Nonresidential                           0.18     0.29      0.11
      Structures                            -0.21    -0.07      0.14
      Equipment and software                 0.39     0.36     -0.03
    Residential                              0.23     0.25      0.02
  Change in private inventories              1.94     1.88     -0.06
Net exports of goods and services           -0.11    -0.07      0.04
  Exports                                    0.64     0.59     -0.05
    Goods                                    0.48     0.47     -0.01
    Services                                 0.16     0.11     -0.05
  Imports                                   -0.75    -0.65      0.10
    Goods                                   -0.60    -0.49      0.11
    Services                                -0.15    -0.16     -0.01
Government consumption expenditures and
    gross investment                        -0.93    -0.89      0.04
  Federal                                   -0.62    -0.58      0.04
    National defense                        -0.73    -0.70      0.03
    Nondefense                               0.11     0.12      0.01
  State and local                           -0.32    -0.30      0.02

Addenda:
  Final sales of domestic product            0.81     1.10      0.29
  Gross domestic purchases price index        ...      ...       ...
  GDP price index                             ...      ...       ...

(1.) The estimates under the contribution columns are also
percent changes.