GDP and the economy: advance estimates for the first quarter of 2012.

Swann, Christopher

REAL GROSS domestic product (GDP) increased 2.2 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2012, according to the advance estimates of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) (chart 1 and table 1). (1) In the fourth quarter of 2011, real GDP increased 3.0 percent.

The deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in inventory investment and a downturn in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by accelerations in consumer spending and in exports. (2)

* Prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents increased 2.4 percent in the first quarter after increasing 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter. Energy prices turned up, while food prices decelerated. Excluding food and energy, gross domestic purchases prices increased 2.2 percent after increasing 1.2 percent. The pay raise for military personnel added less than 0.1 percentage point to the first-quarter percent change in the gross domestic purchases price index.

* Real disposable personal income (DPI) increased 0.4 percent in the first quarter after increasing 1.7 percent. Current-dollar DPI decelerated slightly in the first quarter, reflecting a somewhat larger acceleration in personal current taxes than in personal income. The relatively large deceleration in real DPI primarily reflected an acceleration in the PCE implicit price deflator that is used to deflate current-dollar DPI; the PCE implicit price deflator increased 2.4 percent in the first quarter after increasing 1.2 percent.

* The personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of current-dollar DPI, was 3.9 percent in the first quarter, the lowest rate since the fourth quarter of 2007. In the fourth quarter of 2011, the rate was 4.5 percent.

[GRAPHIC 1 OMITTED]

Real GDP Overview

Consumer spending picked up in the first quarter of 2012, reflecting pickups in spending for both services and goods. The largest contributor to the pickup in services was an upturn in financial services and insurance. The largest contributors to the pickup in goods were upturns in "other" durable goods and in food and beverages for off-premises consumption.

Nonresidential fixed investment turned down, reflecting a slowdown in equipment and software and a larger decrease in structures. The slowdown in equipment and software primarily reflected a downturn in industrial equipment and a slowdown in information processing equipment and software. The largest contributor to the decrease in structures was a downturn in power and communication.

Residential investment picked up, reflecting pickups in single-family structures, in "other" structures, and in multifamily structures.

Inventory investment slowed, primarily reflecting downturns in manufacturing and in wholesale trade industries. In contrast, inventory investment in retail trade industries turned up, primarily in motor vehicles and parts dealers.

Exports picked up, mainly reflecting a pickup in exports of services that mainly reflected upturns in travel and in passenger fares.

Imports accelerated, reflecting a pickup in imports of services. The largest contributors to the pickup were a pickup in travel and an upturn in passenger fares.

Government spending decreased less than in the fourth quarter, reflecting smaller decreases in both federal government spending and state and local government spending.

Real final sales of domestic product, real GDP less inventory investment, increased 1.6 percent in the first quarter after increasing 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter.

Motor vehicle output accelerated sharply, increasing 50.9 percent after increasing 20.4 percent. Motor vehicle output accounted for about half of the first-quarter growth in real GDP.

Final sales of computers slowed, increasing 8.8 percent after increasing 21.2 percent.

Prices

Prices paid by U.S. residents, as measured by the gross domestic purchases price index, accelerated in the first quarter of 2012. The federal pay raise for military personnel added less than 0.1 percentage point to the first-quarter percent change in the gross domestic purchases price index. (The pay raise is treated as an increase in the price of employee services purchased by the federal government.)

Consumer prices picked up, reflecting pickups in prices of goods and of services. An upturn in gasoline and other energy goods was the largest contributor to the pickup in goods prices.

Prices paid for nonresidential fixed investment slowed very slightly, reflecting a slowdown in prices paid for structures that was largely offset by a pickup in prices paid for equipment and software.

Prices paid for residential fixed investment turned down slightly.

Prices paid by government accelerated, reflecting an upturn in prices paid by the federal government (mainly national defense) and an acceleration in prices paid by state and local governments.

Consumer prices excluding food and energy, a measure of the "core" rate of inflation, accelerated, increasing 2.1 percent after increasing 1.3 percent.

The GDP price index increased 1.5 percent, 0.9 percentage point less than the increase in the price index for gross domestic purchases, reflecting a larger increase in import prices (7.4 percent) than in export prices (2.3 percent).

Note on Prices

BEA's gross domestic purchases price index is the most comprehensive index of prices paid by U.S. residents for all goods and services. It is derived from the prices of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private investment, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment.

BEA also produces price indexes for all components of GDP. The PCE price index is a measure of the total cost of consumer goods and services, including durable goods, nondurable goods, and services. PCE prices for food, energy goods and services, and for all items except food and energy are also estimated and reported. Because prices for food and energy can be volatile, the price mea sure that excludes food and energy is often used as a measure of underlying, or "core," inflation. (The core PCE price index includes purchased meals and beverages, such as restaurant meals, and pet food. See FAQ 518 on BEA's Web site.)

BEA also prepares a supplemental PCE price index, the "market-based" PCE price index, that is based on market transactions for which there are corresponding price measures. This index excludes many imputed expenditures, such as financial services furnished without payment, that are included in PCE and the PCE price index. BEA also prepares a market-based measure that excludes food and energy.

Personal Income

Personal income, which is measured in current dollars, accelerated in the first quarter, increasing $119.6 billion after increasing $105.3 billion. The acceleration primarily reflected upturns in personal interest income and in government social benefits to persons that were partly offset by a deceleration in wage and salary disbursements.

The deceleration in wage and salary disbursements reflected monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics employment, hours, and earnings data for the first quarter.

The upturn in personal interest income reflected a smaller decrease in first-quarter interest rates and a pickup in the acquisition of interest-bearing assets held by persons.

The upturn in government social benefits to persons primarily reflected a sharp acceleration in social security that was partly offset by a downturn in "other" benefits. The acceleration in social security reflected a 3.6 percent cost-of-living adjustment in January. The estimate was based on the incorporation of data from the Monthly Treasury Statement and from the Social Security Administration. The downturn in "other" benefits primarily reflected the expiration of the refundable portion of the "Making Work Pay" tax credit.

Personal current taxes accelerated, reflecting accelerations in both federal income taxes and state and local income taxes. The acceleration in federal taxes was due to an acceleration in nonwithheld taxes, reflecting new annual targets of tax collections and refunds based on data that underlie the federal budget from the Department of Treasury's Office of Tax Analysis. The acceleration in state and local taxes was based on the incorporation of a sample of state monthly tax collections data.

[GRAPHIC 2 OMITTED]

Saving

Personal saving--disposable personal income less personal outlays--was $466.0 billion in the first quarter, a decrease of $64.8 billion that followed a fourth-quarter decrease of $2.3 billion. The larger first-quarter decrease reflected an acceleration in personal outlays and a deceleration in disposable personal income.

Source Data for the Advance Estimates

Source Data and Key Assumptions for the Advance Estimates of GDP

The advance estimates of many components of GDP are based on 3 months of source data, but the estimates of some components are based on only 2 months of data. For the following items, the number of months for which data are available is shown in parentheses.

Personal consumption expenditures: sales of retail stores (3), unit auto and truck sales (3), and consumers' shares of auto and truck sales (2);

Nonresidential fixed investment: unit auto and truck sales (3), construction spending (value put in place) (2), manufacturers' shipments of machinery and equipment (3), and exports and imports of machinery and equipment (2);

Residential fixed investment: construction spending (value put in place) (3), single-family housing starts (3), sales of new homes (3), and sales of existing houses (3);

Change in private inventories: trade and nondurablegoods manufacturing inventories (2), durable-goods manufacturing inventories (3), and unit auto and truck inventories (3);

Net exports of goods and services: exports and imports of goods and services (2);

Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: federal outlays (3), state and local government con struction spending (value put in place) (2), and state and local government employment (3);

Compensation: employment, average hourly earnings, and average weekly hours (3); and

Prices: consumer price indexes (3), producer price indexes (3), and values and quantities of petroleum imports (2).

Unavailable source data

When source data were unavailable, BEA made various assumptions for March, including the following (table 5):

* An increase in nonresidential structures,

* An increase in single-family residential structures and a small increase in multifamily residential structures,

* An increase in the change in inventories of nondurable-goods manufacturing industries and an increase in the change in nonmotor vehicle merchant wholesale and retail trade inventories,

* An increase in exports of goods excluding gold and a much larger increase in imports of goods excluding gold, and

* An increase in state and local government structures.

A more comprehensive list is available on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov.

(1.) "Real" estimates are in chained (2005) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures. Each GDP estimate for a quarter (advance, second, and third) incorporates increasingly comprehensive and improved source data; for more information, see "Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components" in the July 2011 Survey of Current Business. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which assumes that a rate of activity for a quarter is maintained for a year.

(2.) In this article, "consumer spending" refers to "personal consumption expenditures (PCE)," "inventory investment" refers to "change in private inventories," and "government spending" refers to "government consumption expenditures and gross investment."

Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Components
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

 Share of
 current-
 dollar Change from
 GDP preceding period
 (percent) (percent)

 2012 2011 2012

 I II III IV I

 Gross domestic product (1) 100.0 1.3 1.8 3.0 2.2
Personal consumption
 expenditures 71.2 0.7 1.7 2.1 2.9
 Goods 24.5 -1.6 1.4 5.4 6.2
 Durable goods 8.0 -5.3 5.7 16.1 15.3
 Nondurable goods 16.5 0.2 -0.5 0.8 2.1
 Services 46.7 1.9 1.9 0.4 1.2
Gross private domestic
 investment 13.2 6.4 1.3 22.1 6.0
 Fixed investment 12.6 9.2 13.0 6.3 1.4
 Nonresidential 10.3 10.3 15.7 5.2 -2.1
 Structures 2.7 22.6 14.4 -0.9 -12.0
 Equipment and software 7.6 6.2 16.2 7.5 1.7
 Residential 2.3 4.2 1.3 11.6 19.1
 Change in private
 inventories 0.6 ... ... ... ...
Net exports of goods and
 services -4.0 ... ... ... ...
 Exports 13.9 3.6 4.7 2.7 5.4
 Goods 9.8 2.5 5.0 3.6 4.1
 Services 4.1 6.2 4.0 0.4 8.6
 Imports 17.9 1.4 1.2 3.7 4.3
 Goods 15.1 1.6 0.5 3.3 3.0
 Services 2.9 0.4 4.8 5.6 11.0
Government consumption
 expenditures and gross
 investment 19.6 -0.9 -0.1 -4.2 -3.0
 Federal 7.9 1.9 2.1 -6.9 -5.6
 National defense 5.2 7.0 5.0 -12.1 -8.1
 Nondefense 2.7 -7.6 -3.8 4.5 -0.6
 State and local 11.7 -2.8 -1.6 -2.2 -1.2

 Contribution to percent
 change in real GDP
 (percentage points)

 2011 2012

 II III IV I

 Gross domestic product (1) 1.3 1.8 3.0 2.2
Personal consumption
 expenditures 0.49 1.24 1.47 2.04
 Goods -0.38 0.33 1.29 1.47
 Durable goods -0.42 0.42 1.16 1.13
 Nondurable goods 0.04 -0.09 0.13 0.35
 Services 0.87 0.90 0.19 0.57
Gross private domestic
 investment 0.79 0.17 2.59 0.77
 Fixed investment 1.07 1.52 0.78 0.18
 Nonresidential 0.98 1.49 0.53 -0.22
 Structures 0.54 0.37 -0.02 -0.35
 Equipment and software 0.44 1.12 0.55 0.13
 Residential 0.09 0.03 0.25 0.40
 Change in private
 inventories -0.28 -1.35 1.81 0.59
Net exports of goods and
 services 0.24 0.43 -0.26 -0.01
 Exports 0.48 0.64 0.37 0.73
 Goods 0.24 0.48 0.36 0.39
 Services 0.24 0.16 0.02 0.34
 Imports -0.24 -0.21 -0.63 -0.74
 Goods -0.23 -0.08 -0.48 -0.44
 Services -0.01 -0.13 -0.15 -0.30
Government consumption
 expenditures and gross
 investment -0.18 -0.02 -0.84 -0.60
 Federal 0.16 0.17 -0.58 -0.46
 National defense 0.37 0.27 -0.70 -0.44
 Nondefense -0.22 -0.10 0.12 -0.01
 State and local -0.34 -0.19 -0.26 -0.14

(1.) The estimates of GDP under the contribution columns are also
percent changes.

Note. Percent changes are from NIPA table 1.1.1, contributions are
from NIPA table 1.1.2, and shares are from NIPA table 1.1.10.

Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Related Measures
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

 Share of
 current-
 dollar Change from
 GDP preceding period
 (percent) (percent)

 2012 2011 2012

 I II III IV I

Gross domestic product (1) 100.0 1.3 1.8 3.0 2.2
 Final sales of domestic
 product 99.4 1.6 3.2 1.1 1.6
 Change in private
 inventories 0.6 ... ... ... ...
 Goods 28.7 -0.6 2.2 13.0 7.1
 Services 64.5 1.8 1.2 -1.0 0.4
 Structures 6.8 5.0 5.8 2.0 -0.6
Addenda:
Motor vehicle output 2.8 -4.1 5.1 20.4 50.9
GDP excluding motor vehicle
 output 97.2 1.5 1.7 2.5 1.1
Final sales of computers 0.6 13.0 42.1 21.2 8.8
GDP excluding final sales of
 computers 99.4 1.3 1.6 2.8 2.2

 Contribution to percent
 change in real GDP
 (percentage points)

 2011 2012

 II III IV I

Gross domestic product (1) 1.3 1.8 3.0 2.2
 Final sales of domestic
 product 1.62 3.16 1.14 1.62
 Change in private
 inventories -0.28 -1.35 1.81 0.59
 Goods -0.17 0.62 3.49 1.98
 Services 1.18 0.81 -0.67 0.27
 Structures 0.33 0.38 0.14 -0.04
Addenda:
Motor vehicle output -0.10 0.12 0.47 1.12
GDP excluding motor vehicle
 output 1.44 1.69 2.48 1.09
Final sales of computers 0.07 0.22 0.12 0.05
GDP excluding final sales of
 computers 1.26 1.60 2.83 2.15

(1) The estimates under the contribution columns are also percent
changes. Note. Percent changes are from NIPA table 1.2.1,
contributions are from NIPA table 1.2.2, and shares are calculated

Table 3. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases
[Percent change at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted index
numbers (2005=100)]

 Change from
 preceding period
 (percent)

 2011 2012

 II III IV I

 Gross domestic purchases (1) 3.3 2.0 1.1 2.4
Personal consumption expenditures 3.3 2.3 1.2 2.4
 Goods 5.1 2.9 0.0 2.5
 Durable goods 1.7 -0.5 -2.5 -1.0
 Nondurable goods 6.7 4.5 1.2 4.2
 Services 2.4 2.1 1.8 2.3
Gross private domestic investment 2.2 1.1 1.4 1.0
 Fixed investment 2.4 1.5 1.3 0.9
 Nonresidential 2.5 1.8 1.6 1.5
 Structures 6.1 5.6 4.3 2.6
 Equipment and software 1.2 0.4 0.6 1.1
 Residential 2.0 0.3 0.2 -1.5
 Change in private inventories ... ... ... ...
Government consumption expenditures
 and gross investment 4.2 1.3 0.9 3.4
 Federal 3.8 1.8 -0.4 3.7
 National defense 3.8 1.5 -0.6 4.7
 Nondefense 3.7 2.3 0.1 1.7
 State and local 4.5 0.9 1.8 3.2
Addenda:
Gross domestic purchases:
 Food 5.7 4.2 3.5 1.1
 Energy goods and services 15.0 3.2 -3.0 7.9
 Excluding food and energy 2.7 1.8 1.2 2.2
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
 Food and beverages for off-premises
 consumption 6.4 4.7 3.3 1.3
 Energy goods and services 15.0 3.3 -3.2 7.8
 Excluding food and energy 2.3 2.1 1.3 2.1
Gross domestic product (GDP) 2.5 2.6 0.9 1.5
Exports 8.8 1.9 -3.7 2.3
Imports 12.5 -1.3 -1.2 7.4

 Contribution to percent
 change in gross domestic
 purchases prices
 (percentage points)

 2011 2012

 II III IV I

 Gross domestic purchases (1) 3.3 2.0 1.1 2.4
Personal consumption expenditures 2.26 1.60 0.80 1.64
 Goods 1.17 0.67 0.00 0.58
 Durable goods 0.13 -0.04 -0.19 -0.08
 Nondurable goods 1.04 0.71 0.19 0.66
 Services 1.09 0.93 0.79 1.05
Gross private domestic investment 0.27 0.14 0.17 0.13
 Fixed investment 0.28 0.18 0.16 0.12
 Nonresidential 0.24 0.17 0.16 0.15
 Structures 0.15 0.15 0.11 0.07
 Equipment and software 0.09 0.03 0.04 0.08
 Residential 0.04 0.01 0.00 -0.03
 Change in private inventories -0.01 -0.04 0.01 0.02
Government consumption expenditures
 and gross investment 0.81 0.24 0.17 0.64
 Federal 0.30 0.14 -0.03 0.28
 National defense 0.20 0.08 -0.03 0.24
 Nondefense 0.10 0.06 0.00 0.04
 State and local 0.52 0.10 0.20 0.36
Addenda:
Gross domestic purchases:
 Food 0.28 0.21 0.18 0.06
 Energy goods and services 0.60 0.13 -0.13 0.33
 Excluding food and energy 2.46 1.64 1.10 2.02
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
 Food and beverages for off-premises
 consumption ... ... ... ...
 Energy goods and services ... ... ... ...
 Excluding food and energy ... ... ... ...
Gross domestic product (GDP) ... ... ... ...
Exports ... ... ... ...
Imports ... ... ... ...

(1.) The estimates under the contribution columns are also percent
changes

NOTE. Most percent changes are from NIPA table 1.6.7; percent
changes for PCE for food and energy goods and services and for PCE
and services and for PCE excluding food and energy are calculated
from index numbers in NIPA table 2.3.4.

Contributions are from NIPA table 1.6.8. GDP export, and import
prices are from NIPA table 1.1.7.

Table 4. Personal Income and Its Disposition
[Billions of dollars; quarterly estimates are
seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

 Level

 2012 2011

 I IV

Personal income 13,162.1 13,281.7
 Compensation of employees, received 8,440.3 8,525.7
 Wage and salary disbursements 6,813.4 6,884.7
 Private industries 5,624.4 5,691.9
 Goods-producing industries 1,134.6 1,151.0
 Manufacturing 717.6 730.0
 Services-producing industries 4,489.8 4,541.0
 Trade, transportation, and
 utilities 1,080.5 1,088.8
 Other services-producing
 industries 3,409.3 3,452.2
 Government 1,189.0 1,192.7
 Supplements to wages and salaries 1,626.9 1,641.0
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj 1,119.7 1,132.6
 Farm 62.7 62.0
 Nonfarm 1,057.0 1,070.6
Rental income of persons with CCAdj 427.2 443.3
Personal income receipts on assets 1,786.3 1,796.4
 Personal interest income 976.8 980.5
 Personal dividend income 809.5 816.0
Personal current transfer receipts 2,333.1 2,343.6
 Government social benefits to persons 2,293.5 2,304.3
 Social security 722.3 753.4
 Medicare 555.3 553.8
 Medicaid 411.5 409.7
 Unemployment insurance 100.1 94.6
 Veterans benefits 64.3 67.6
 Other 440.0 425.3
 Other current transfer receipts from
 business, net 39.6 39.3
Less: Contributions for government
 social insurance: 944.5 959.9
Less: Personal current taxes 1,430.2 1,468.8
Equals: Disposable personal
 income (DPI) 11,731.9 11,812.9
Less: Personal outlays 11,201.0 11,346.9
Equals: Personal saving 530.8 466.0
Personal saving as a percentage of DPI 4.5 3.9
Addenda: The effects of special factors
 on changes in personal income
In government wages and salaries:
 Federal pay raise ... ...
In supplements to wages and salaries:
 FICA increase in maximum taxable
 wages ... ...
 State unemployment insurance changes
 in tax rates and taxable wage base ... ...
In government social benefits to
 persons:
 Cost-of-living adjustments
 (COLAs) (1) ... ...
 Automatic Earnings Reappraisal
 Operation ... ...
 "Making Work Pay" tax credit ... ...
 Earned Income Tax Credit ... ...
In employee contributions for
 government social insurance:
 FICA increase in maximum taxable
 wages ... ...
In personal current taxes:
 Change in indexation ... ...
 Refunds, settlements, and back taxes ... ...

 Change from preceding
 period

 2011 2012

 II III IV I

Personal income 108.4 101.5 105.3 119.6
 Compensation of employees, received 47.2 118.6 102.0 85.4
 Wage and salary disbursements 38.9 107.2 89.1 71.3
 Private industries 38.1 109.8 89.4 67.5
 Goods-producing industries 4.6 19.7 18.0 16.4
 Manufacturing 0.0 8.6 8.6 12.4
 Services-producing industries 33.6 90.1 71.4 51.2
 Trade, transportation, and
 utilities 8.7 19.0 18.4 8.3
 Other services-producing
 industries 24.8 71.2 53.0 42.9
 Government 0.8 -2.6 -0.3 3.7
 Supplements to wages and salaries 8.3 11.3 12.9 14.1
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj 10.9 7.2 6.0 12.9
 Farm 1.2 0.2 -4.8 -0.7
 Nonfarm 9.7 7.0 10.8 13.6
Rental income of persons with CCAdj 11.9 9.4 20.9 16.1
Personal income receipts on assets 25.1 -8.1 -7.9 10.1
 Personal interest income 11.2 -21.1 -18.0 3.7
 Personal dividend income 13.9 13.0 10.1 6.5
Personal current transfer receipts 19.2 -10.7 -3.5 10.5
 Government social benefits to persons 19.3 -10.7 -3.7 10.8
 Social security 9.1 4.1 6.0 31.1
 Medicare 6.1 3.9 -2.5 -1.5
 Medicaid 5.3 -21.0 -4.9 -1.8
 Unemployment insurance -8.7 -5.8 -2.9 -5.5
 Veterans benefits 1.5 2.2 -0.7 3.3
 Other 5.8 5.9 1.4 -14.7
 Other current transfer receipts from
 business, net -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.3
Less: Contributions for government
 social insurance: 5.9 15.0 12.1 15.4
Less: Personal current taxes 30.3 12.9 21.1 38.6
Equals: Disposable personal
 income (DPI) 78.2 88.5 84.2 81.0
Less: Personal outlays 100.5 112.0 86.4 145.9
Equals: Personal saving -22.4 -23.4 -2.3 -64.8
Personal saving as a percentage of DPI
Addenda: The effects of special factors
 on changes in personal income
In government wages and salaries:
 Federal pay raise 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
In supplements to wages and salaries:
 FICA increase in maximum taxable
 wages 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
 State unemployment insurance changes
 in tax rates and taxable wage base 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
In government social benefits to
 persons:
 Cost-of-living adjustments
 (COLAs) (1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.2
 Automatic Earnings Reappraisal
 Operation 0.4 -0.4 2.4 -2.4
 "Making Work Pay" tax credit 0.0 0.0 0.0 -13.6
 Earned Income Tax Credit 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.7
In employee contributions for
 government social insurance:
 FICA increase in maximum taxable
 wages 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
In personal current taxes:
 Change in indexation 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.9
 Refunds, settlements, and back taxes 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8

(1.) Includes COLAs for social security, veterans benefits,
railroad retirement, and supplemental security income. In
the first quarter, the social security COLA boosted benefits
$26.2 billion.

NOTE. Dollar levels are from NIPA tables 2.1 and 2.2B.

IVA Inventory valuation adjustment

CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment

FICA Federal Insurance Contributions Act

Table 5. Source Data and Key Assumptions for the Advance
Estimates of GDP for the First Quarter of 2012
[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

 2011

 Oct. Nov. Dec.
Private fixed investment:
 Nonresidential structures:
 Value of new nonresidential
 construction put in place 280.8 283.6 292.0
 Residential structures:
 Value of new residential
 construction put in place:
 Single family 107.4 108.8 110.8
 Multifamily 15.2 16.3 16.4
Change in private inventories:
 Change in inventories for
 nondurable manufacturing 50.4 11.5 -4.8
 Change in inventories for merchant
 wholesale and retail
 industries other than motor
 vehicles and equipment 75.1 27.3 60.9
Net exports: (2)
 Exports of goods:
 U.S. exports of goods,
 international-transactions-
 accounts basis 1533.8 1510.0 1520.7
 Excluding gold 1489.4 1478.4 1487.4
 Imports of goods:
 U.S. imports of goods,
 international-transactions-
 accounts basis 2235.5 2264.1 2301.1
 Excluding gold 2219.1 2247.4 2284.2
 Net exports of goods -701.6 -754.0 -780.5
 Excluding gold -729.6 -769.0 -796.8
State and local government
 structures:
 Value of new construction put in
 place 254.5 257.9 257.8

 2012

 Jan. Feb. March (1)
Private fixed investment:
 Nonresidential structures:
 Value of new nonresidential
 construction put in place 285.3 280.8 283.1
 Residential structures:
 Value of new residential
 construction put in place:
 Single family 113.2 111.5 116.3
 Multifamily 16.9 17.2 17.9
Change in private inventories:
 Change in inventories for
 nondurable manufacturing 19.7 10.5 20.9
 Change in inventories for merchant
 wholesale and retail
 industries other than motor
 vehicles and equipment 41.7 63.5 66.6
Net exports: (2)
 Exports of goods:
 U.S. exports of goods,
 international-transactions-
 accounts basis 1542.5 1535.8 1557.6
 Excluding gold 1499.6 1495.5 1515.4
 Imports of goods:
 U.S. imports of goods,
 international-transactions-
 accounts basis 2350.5 2272.5 2363.3
 Excluding gold 2334.3 2256.3 2346.3
 Net exports of goods -808.1 -736.7 -805.6
 Excluding gold -834.7 -760.9 -830.9
State and local government
 structures:
 Value of new construction put in
 place 259.2 253.9 256.5

(1.) Assumption.

2. Nonmonetary gold is included in balance-of-payments exports and
imports, but it is not used directly in estimating exports and imports
in the national income and product accounts.