GDP and the economy: third estimates for the third quarter of 2010.
Swann, Christopher
REAL GROSS domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of
2.6 percent in the third quarter of 2010, according to the third
estimates of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) (chart 1
and table 1). (1) The third estimate of real GDP growth was revised up
0.1 percentage point from the second estimate (see page 3). In the
second quarter of 2010, real GDP increased 1.7 percent.
The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily
reflected a sharp deceleration in imports and an acceleration in
inventory investment that were partly offset by a downturn in
residential fixed investment and decelerations in nonresidential fixed
investment and in exports. (2)
* Prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents
increased 0.7 percent in the third quarter after increasing 0.1 percent
in the second quarter. Energy prices turned up in the third quarter, and
food prices decelerated slightly. Excluding food and energy, gross
domestic purchases prices increased 0.4 percent after increasing 0.8
percent.
* Real disposable personal income (DPI) increased 0.9 percent in
the third quarter, the same increase as in the second estimate; in the
second quarter, real DPI increased 5.6 percent. The sharp deceleration
reflected a deceleration in personal income, an acceleration in personal
current taxes, and an acceleration in the PCE implicit price deflator,
which is used to deflate current-dollar DPI.
* The personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of
current-dollar DPI, was 5.9 percent in the third quarter; in the second
quarter, it was 6.2 percent.
* Corporate profits from current production increased $26.0 billion
in the third quarter after increasing $47.5 billion in the second
quarter (see page 4).
[GRAPHIC 1 OMITTED]
Real GDP Overview
Consumer spending picked up somewhat in the third quarter,
reflecting pickups in spending for nondurable goods and for durable
goods. Spending for services grew at the same rate as in the second
quarter.
Nonresidential fixed investment slowed, reflecting a deceleration
in spending for equipment and software and a larger decrease in spending
for structures.
Residential investment turned down, mainly reflecting downturns in
"other" structures, notably in brokers' commissions, in
improvements, and in single-family structures.
Inventory investment accelerated and added 1.61 percentage points
to real GDP growth after adding 0.82 percentage point.
Exports slowed, reflecting a slowdown in exports of goods that was
partly offset by a pickup in exports of services.
Imports slowed, reflecting a slowdown in imports of goods that was
partly offset by a pickup in imports of services.
Federal government spending slowed slightly. A deceleration in
nondefense spending was mostly offset by a pickup in national defense
spending.
The GDP price index increased 2.1 percent, 1.4 percentage points
more than the gross domestic purchases price index, reflecting a
decrease in import prices (8.1 percent) and a slight increase in export
prices (0.2 percent).
GDP and Gross Domestic Purchases
In addition to gross domestic product (GDP), another related
measure of economic growth--gross domestic purchases-is included in the
national income and product accounts (NIPAs).
GDP measures the market value of final goods and services produced
by labor and property in the United States, including the goods that are
added to, or subtracted from, inventories. GDP is defined as the sum of
consumer spending, business and residential investment, inventory
investment, government spending, and exports less imports.
Gross domestic purchases is defined as GDP less exports plus
imports. It measures domestic demand for goods and services regardless
of their origin. Exports represent foreign demand for U.S. goods and
services. Subtracting exports from GDP yields a measure of expenditures
that focuses on domestic buyers. Imports can be viewed as the value of
goods and services that exceed the domestic supply and that expand the
consumption and investment alternatives for domestic purchasers.
Differences between GDP and gross domestic purchases reflect
patterns in imports less exports: as imports exceed exports, gross
domestic purchases exceeds GDP. For annual and quarterly estimates of
these measures, see NIPA tables 1.4.1 and 1.4.3-1.4.6.
See also "A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts
of the United States" at www.bea.gov under
"Methodologies." For a related discussion about GDP prices and
gross domestic purchases prices, see FAQ 499.
Revisions to GDP
The third estimate of the third-quarter increase in real GDP was
0.1 percentage point more than the second estimate. The average revision
(without regard to sign) between the second estimates and the third
estimates is 0.3 percentage point. The slight upward revision to the
percent change in real GDP primarily reflected an upward revision to
inventory investment that was largely offset by a downward revision to
consumer spending.
The downward revision to consumer spending reflected a downward
revision to consumer spending for services that was partly offset by an
upward revision to consumer spending for goods. Within services, the
revision primarily reflected downward revisions to health care services
and to financial services and insurance. Within goods, the largest
contributor to the upward revision was nondurable goods, specifically,
motor vehicle fuels, lubricants, and fluids.
The upward revision to inventory investment was primarily accounted
for by upward revisions to wholesale trade inventories and to
manufacturing inventories.
Source Data for the Third Estimates
The third estimate of GDP for the third quarter of 2010
incorporated the following source data.
Personal consumption expenditures: retail sales for September
(revised), quarterly services survey data for the third quarter (new),
and Energy Information Administration (EIA) fuels data for September
(new).
Nonresidential fixed investment: construction spending (value put
in place) data for August and September (revised) and quarterly services
survey data for the third quarter (new).
Residential fixed investment: construction spending (value put in
place) data for August and September (revised).
Change in private inventories: manufacturers' and trade
inventories for September (revised), Quarterly Financial Report data for
mining (revised), and EIA data for natural gas for September (new) and
for coal and petroleum stocks for August (new).
Exports and imports of goods and services: international
transactions accounts data for July-September (revised) and data for
goods for September (revised).
Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: state and
local government construction spending (value put in place) data for
August and September (revised).
GDP prices: export and import prices for July, August, and
September (revised), unit value index for petroleum imports for
September (revised), and prices of single-family houses under
construction for the September (new).
Corporate Profits
Profits from current production increased $26.0 billion, or 1.6
percent at a quarterly rate, in the third quarter after increasing $47.5
billion, or 3.0 percent, in the second quarter.
Domestic profits of financial corporations increased $34.6 billion,
or 10.4 percent, after decreasing $3.4 billion, or 1.0 percent.
Domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $0.3
billion after increasing $48.2 billion.
Profits from the rest of the world decreased $8.9 billion, or 2.3
percent, after increasing $2.8 billion, or 0.7 percent. In the third
quarter, receipts increased $8.8 billion, and payments increased $17.8
billion.
Taxes on corporate income increased $23.8 billion, or 5.9 percent,
after increasing $2.4 billion, or 0.6 percent.
Undistributed corporate profits, a measure of net saving that
equals after-tax profits less dividends, decreased $5.9 billion, or 1.2
percent, after increasing $37.1 billion, or 8.4 percent.
Net cash flow, a profits-related measure of the internal funds
available for investment, decreased $68.4 billion, or 4.3 percent, after
increasing $61.1 billion, or 4.0 percent.
Measuring Corporate Profits
Corporate profits is a widely followed economic indicator used to
gauge corporate health, assess investment conditions, and analyze the
effect on corporations of economic policies and conditions. In addition,
corporate profits is an important component in key measures of income.
BEA's measure of corporate profits aims to capture the income
earned by corporations from current production in a manner that is fully
consistent with the national income and product accounts (NIPAs). The
measure is defined as receipts arising from current production less
associated expenses. Receipts exclude income in the form of dividends
and capital gains, and expenses exclude bad debts, natural resource
depletion, and capital losses.
Because direct estimates of NIPA-consistent corporate profits are
unavailable, BEA derives these estimates in three steps.
First, BEA measures profits before taxes to reflect corporate
income regardless of any redistributions of income through taxes.
Estimates for the current quarter are based on corporate earnings
reports from sources including Census Bureau Quarterly Financial
Reports, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation call reports, other
regulatory reports, and tabulations from corporate financial reports.
The estimates are benchmarked to Internal Revenue Service data when the
data are available for two reasons: the data are based on well-specified
accounting definitions, and they are comprehensive, covering all
incorporated businesses--publicly traded and privately held--in all
industries.
Second, to remove the effects of price changes on inventories
valued at historical cost and of tax accounting for inventory
withdrawals, BEA adds an inventory valuation adjustment that values
inventories at current cost.
Third, to remove the effects of tax accounting on depreciation, BEA
adds a capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj). CCAdj is defined as the
difference between capital consumption allowances (tax return
depreciation) and consumption of fixed capital (the decline in the value
of the stock of assets due to wear and tear, obsolescence, accidental
damage, and aging).
Corporate Profits by Industry
Profits with inventory valuation adjustment increased $24.6
billion, or 1.4 percent at a quarterly rate, in the third quarter. The
difference between this increase in profits and the increase in profits
from current production reflects the capital consumption adjustment,
which increased $1.4 billion.
Profits of domestic industries increased $33.6 billion, or 2.4
percent, after increasing $45.4 billion, or 3.4 percent.
Profits of domestic financial industries increased $34.3 billion,
or 9.5 percent, after decreasing $3.3 billion, or 0.9 percent.
Profits of domestic nonfinancial industries decreased $0.7 billion,
or 0.1 percent, after increasing $48.7 billion, or 4.9 percent. The
downturn mainly reflected a downturn in wholesale trade, a deceleration
in transportation and warehousing, and a downturn in manufacturing that
were partly offset by upturns in information and in utilities. In
manufacturing, the downturn was more than accounted for by a downturn in
petroleum and coal products.
[GRAPHIC 2 OMITTED]
Corporate Profits by Industry
Industry profits are corporate profits by industry with inventory
valuation adjustment (WA). The IVA removes the effect of price changes
on inventories. The IVA is the difference between the cost of inventory
withdrawals at acquisition cost and replacement cost. Ideally, BEA would
also add the capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj) for each industry.
However, estimates of the CCAdi are only available for two broad
categories: total financial industries and total nonfinancial
industries. For more information about BEA's methodology, see
"Corporate Profits: Profits Before Tax, Profits Tax Liability, and
Dividends" at www.bea.gov/methodologies/index.htm.
(1.) "Real" estimates are in chained (2005) dollars, and
price indexes are chain-type measures. Each GDP estimate for a quarter
(advance, second, and third) incorporates increasingly comprehensive and
improved source data. More information can be found at
www.bea.gov/about/infoqual.htm and
www.bea.gov/faq/national/gdp_accuracy.htm. Quarterly estimates are
expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which assumes that a rate
of activity for a quarter is maintained for a year.
(2.) In this article, "consumer spending" refers to
"personal consumption expenditures (PCE)," "inventory
investment" refers to "change in private inventories,"
and "government spending" refers to "government
consumption expenditures and gross investment."
Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product and Components
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Share of
current- Change from
dollar preceding period
GDP (percent)
(percent)
2010 2009 2010
III IV I
Gross domestic
product (1) 100.0 5.01 3.7
Personal consumption
expenditures 70.3 0.9 1.9
Goods 23.2 1.7 5.7
Durable goods 7.4 -1.1 8.8
Nondurable goods 15.8 3.1 4.2
Services 47.1 0.5 0.1
Gross private domestic
investment 12.9 26.7 29.1
Fixed investment 12.0 -1.3 3.3
Nonresidential 9.8 -1.4 7.8
Structures 2.6 -29.2 -17.8
Equipment and
software 7.2 14.6 20.4
Residential 2.2 -0.8 -12.3
Change in private
inventories 0.9 ... ...
Net exports of goods and
services -0.7 ... ...
Exports 12.5 24.4 11.4
Goods 8.7 31.7 14.0
Services 3.8 10.2 5.8
Imports 16.3 4.9 11.2
Goods 13.5 6.2 12.0
Services 2.8 -0.5 7.8
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment 20.5 -1.4 -1.6
Federal 8.4 0.0 1.8
National defense 5.6 -2.5 0.4
Nondefense 2.7 5.6 5.0
State and local 12.1 -2.3 -3.8
Addenda:
Final sales of
domestic product 99.1 2.1 1.1
Gross domestic purchases 103.7 3.0 3.9
Gross domestic
purchases price
index ... 2.1 2.1
GDP price index ... -0.2 1.0
Change from
preceding period
(percent)
II III
Gross domestic
product (1) 1.7 2.6
Personal consumption
expenditures 2.2 2.4
Goods 3.4 4.1
Durable goods 6.8 7.6
Nondurable goods 1.9 2.5
Services 1.6 1.6
Gross private domestic
investment 26.2 15.0
Fixed investment 18.9 1.5
Nonresidential 17.2 10.0
Structures -0.5 -3.5
Equipment and
software 24.8 15.4
Residential 25.7 -27.3
Change in private
inventories ... ...
Net exports of goods and
services ... ...
Exports 9.1 6.8
Goods 11.5 5.8
Services 3.9 8.9
Imports 33.5 16.8
Goods 40.5 17.4
Services 4.3 14.2
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment 3.9 3.9
Federal 9.1 8.8
National defense 7.4 8.5
Nondefense 12.8 9.5
State and local 0.6 0.7
Addenda:
Final sales of
domestic product 0.9 0.9
Gross domestic purchases 5.1 4.2
Gross domestic
purchases price
index 0.1 0.7
GDP price index 1.9 2.1
Contribution to
percent change in
real GDP (percentage
points)
2009 2010
IV I
Gross domestic
product (1) 5.0 3.7
Personal consumption
expenditures 0.69 1.33
Goods 0.42 1.29
Durable goods -0.07 0.62
Nondurable goods 0.49 0.67
Services 0.27 0.03
Gross private domestic
investment 2.70 3.04
Fixed investment -0.12 0.39
Nonresidential -0.10 0.71
Structures -1.01 -0.53
Equipment and
software 0.91 1.24
Residential -0.02 -0.32
Change in private
inventories 2.83 2.64
Net exports of goods and
services 1.90 -0.31
Exports 2.56 1.30
Goods 2.19 1.09
Services 0.37 0.21
Imports -0.66 -1.61
Goods -0.68 -1.41
Services 0.02 -0.20
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment -0.28 -0.32
Federal 0.01 0.15
National defense -0.13 0.02
Nondefense 0.14 0.13
State and local -0.29 -0.48
Addenda:
Final sales of
domestic product 2.19 1.09
Gross domestic purchases ... ...
Gross domestic
purchases price
index ... ...
GDP price index ... ...
Contribution to
percent change in
real GDP (percentage
points)
II III
Gross domestic
product (1) 1.7 2.6
Personal consumption 1.67
expenditures 1.54
Goods 0.79 0.94
Durable goods 0.49 0.54
Nondurable goods 0.31 0.39
Services 0.75 0.74
Gross private domestic
investment 2.88 1.80
Fixed investment 2.06 0.18
Nonresidential 1.51 0.93
Structures -0.01 -0.09
Equipment and
software 1.52 1.02
Residential 0.55 -0.75
Change in private
inventories 0.82 1.61
Net exports of goods and
services -0.50 -1.70
Exports 1.08 0.82
Goods 0.93 0.49
Services 0.15 0.33
Imports -4.58 -2.53
Goods -4.46 -2.16
Services -0.12 -0.37
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment 0.80 0.79
Federal 0.72 0.71
National defense 0.40 0.46
Nondefense 0.32 0.25
State and local 0.08 0.09
Addenda:
Final sales of
domestic product 0.90 0.95
Gross domestic purchases ... ...
Gross domestic
purchases price
index ... ...
GDP price index ... ...
1. The estimates of GDP under the contribution columns are also
percent changes.
Note. Percent changes are from NIPA table 1.1.1, contributions are
from NIPA table 1.1.2, and shares are from NIPA table 1.1.10.
Table 2 Second and Third Estimates for the Third Quarter of 2010
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Change from
preceding quarter
(percent)
Third
Second Third minus
second
Gross domestic product (GDP) (1) 2.5 2.6 0.1
Personal consumption expenditures 2.8 2.4 -0.4
Goods 3.5 4.1 0.6
Durable goods 7.4 7.6 0.2
Nondurablegoods 1.8 2.5 0.7
Services 2.5 1.6 -0.9
Gross private domestic investment 12.4 15.0 2.6
Fixed investment 1.7 1.5 -0.2
Nonresidential 10.3 10.0 -0.3
Structures -5.7 -3.5 2.2
Equipment and software 16.8 15.4 -1.4
Residential -27.5 -27.3 0.2
Change in private inventories ... ... ...
Net exports of goods and service s ... ... ...
Exports 6.3 6.8 0.5
Goods 5.5 5.8 0.3
Services 8.1 8.9 0.8
Imports 16.8 16.8 0.0
Goods 17.5 17.4 -0.1
Services 13.7 14.2 0.5
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment 4.0 3.9 -1.0
Federal 8.9 8.8 -1.0
National defense 8.5 8.5 0.0
Nondefense 9.5 9.5 0.0
State and local 0.8 0.7 -1.0
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product 1.2 0.9 -3.0
Gross domestic purchases
price index 0.8 0.7 -1.0
GDP price index 2.3 2.1 -2.0
Contribution to percent
change in real GDP
(percentage points)
Third
Second Third minus
second
Gross domestic product (GDP) (1) 2.5 2.6 0.1
Personal consumption expenditures 1.97 1.67 -0.30
Goods 0.81 0.94 0.13
Durable goods 0.53 0.54 0.01
Nondurablegoods 0.28 0.39 0.11
Services 1.16 0.74 -0.42
Gross private domestic investment 1.51 1.80 0.29
Fixed investment 0.20 0.18 -0.02
Nonresidential 0.96 0.93 -0.03
Structures -0.15 -0.09 0.06
Equipment and software 1.11 1.02 -0.09
Residential -0.75 -0.75 0.00
Change in private inventories 1.30 1.61 0.03
Net exports of goods and services -1.76 -1.70 0.06
Exports 0.77 0.82 0.05
Goods 0.47 0.49 0.02
Services 0.30 0.33 0.03
Imports -2.52 -2.53 -0.01
Goods -2.17 -2.16 0.01
Services 0.36 -0.37 -0.01
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment 0.81 0.79 -0.02
Federal 0.71 0.71 0.00
National defense 0.46 0.46 0.00
Nondefense 0.25 0.25 0.00
State and local 0.10 0.09 -0.01
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic product 1.22 0.95 -0.27
Gross domestic purchases
price index ... ... ...
GDP price index ... ... ...
(1) The estimates for GDP under the contribution columns
are also percent changes.
Table 3. Corporate Profits
[Seasonally adjusted]
Billions of dollars (annual rate)
Change from
Level preceding quarter
2010 2009 2010
III IV I
Current production measures:
Corporate profits 1,640.1 120.7 148.4
Domestic industries 1,257.7 122.5 122.4
Financial 368.8 46.3 5.2
Nonfinancial 888.9 76.1 117.2
Rest of the world 382.4 -1.6 25.9
Receipts from the rest of
the world 566.3 41.3 32.3
Less: Payments to the rest
of the world 183.9 42.9 6.4
Less: Taxes on corporate
income 429.4 63.4 84.1
Equals: Profits after tax 1,210.7 57.4 64.1
Net dividends 736.5 8.9 11.8
Undistributed profits from
current production 474.2 48.4 52.4
Net cash flow 1,510.0 78.4 33.3
Percent
change
Billions of dollars from
(annual rate) preceding
quarter
Change from (quarterly
preceding quarter rate)
2010 2009
II III IV
Current production measures:
Corporate profits 47.5 26.0 9.3
Domestic industries 44.6 35 13.1
Financial -0.4 34.6 16.2
Nonfinancial 48.2 0.3 11.8
Rest of the world 2.8 -8.9 -0.5
Receipts from the rest of
the world -3.9 8.8 8.5
Less: Payments to the rest
of the world -0.8 17.8 34.7
Less: Taxes on corporate
income 2.4 23.8 24.8
Equals: Profits after tax 45.2 2.2 5.5
Net dividends 8.1 8.1 1.3
Undistributed profits from
current production 37.1 -5.9 14.2
Net cash flow 61.1 -68.4 5.6
Percent change from
preceding quarter
(quarterly rate)
2010
I II III
Current production measures:
Corporate profits 10.5 3.0 1.6
Domestic industries 11.6 3.8 2.9
Financial 1.6 -1.0 10.4
Nonfinancial 16.2 5.7 0.0
Rest of the world 7.2 0.7 -2.3
Receipts from the rest of
the world 6.1 -0.7 1.6
Less: Payments to the rest
of the world 3.9 -3.9 10.7
Less: Taxes on corporate
income 26.4 0.6 5.9
Equals: Profits after tax 5.8 3.9 0.2
Net dividends 1.7 1.1 1.1
Undistributed profits from
current production 13.4 8.4 -1.2
Net cash flow 2.2 4.0 -4.3
NOTE. Levels of these and other profits series are shown in
NIPA tables 1.12, 1.14, 1.15, and 6.16D.
Table 4. Corporate Profits by Industry
[Seasonally adjusted]
Billions of dollars (annual rate)
Change from
Level preceding quarter
2010 2009 2010
III IV I II
Industry profits:
Profits with IVA 1,809.3 120.7 255.3 48.2
Domestic industries 1,427.0 122.4 229.4 45.4
Financial 393.7 46.5 16.0 -3.3
Nonfinancial 1,033.3 75.9 213.4 48.7
Utilities 35.2 4.0 15.1 -8.7
Manufacturing 269.2 19.1 79.5 26.7
Wholesale trade 90.2 2.2 18.5 16.2
Retail trade 123.2 -4.2 32.0 -2.4
Transportation and
warehousing 54.3 7.5 9.9 13.0
Information 114.6 27.7 3.9 -8.0
Other nonfinancial 346.6 19.4 54.4 12.1
Rest of the world 382.4 -1.6 25.9 2.8
Addenda:
Profits before tax (without
IVA and CCAdj) 1,845.7 179.2 224.5 15.3
Profits after tax (without
IVA and CCAdj) 1,416.3 115.8 140.4 12.9
IVA -36.4 -58.5 30.8 32.9
CCAdj -169.3 0.0 -106.9 -0.8
Billions
of dollars
(annual rate)
Change from Percent change from
preceding preceding quarter
quarter (quarterly rate)
2010 2009 2010
III IV I
Industry profits:
Profits with IVA 24.6 8.9 17.2
Domestic industries 33.6 12.3 20.5
Financial 34.3 15.5 4.6
Nonfinancial -0.7 10.9 27.6
Utilities 2.4 17.8 57.2
Manufacturing -7.9 12.6 46.5
Wholesale trade -17.5 3.1 25.3
Retail trade -3.5 -4.1 32.9
Transportation and
warehousing 1.9 34.3 33.8
Information 9.7 34.2 3.6
Other nonfinancial 14.1 7.9 20.5
Rest of the world -8.9 -0.5 7.2
Addenda:
Profits before tax (without
IVA and CCAdj) 57.5 13.1 14.5
Profits after tax (without
IVA and CCAdj) 33.7 10.4 11.4
IVA -32.9 ... ...
CCAdj 1.4 ... ...
Percent change from
preceding quarter
(quarterly rate)
2010
II III
Industry profits:
Profits with IVA 2.8 1.4
Domestic industries 3.4 2.4
Financial -0.9 9.5
Nonfinancial 4.9 -0.1
Utilities -21.1 7.4
Manufacturing 10.6 -2.8
Wholesale trade 17.7 -16.3
Retail trade -1.9 -2.8
Transportation and
warehousing 32.9 3.6
Information -7.1 9.3
Other nonfinancial 3.8 4.2
Rest of the world 0.7 -2.3
Addenda:
Profits before tax (without
IVA and CCAdj) 0.9 3.2
Profits after tax (without
IVA and CCAdj) 0.9 2.4
IVA ... ...
CCAdj ... ...
NOTE. Levels of these and other profits series are shown
in NIPA tables 1.12, 1.14, 1.15, and 6.16D.
IVA Inventory valuation adjustment
CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment