GDP and the economy: advance estimates for the fourth quarter of 2010.

Swann, Christopher

REAL GROSS domestic product (GDP) increased 3.2 percent at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010, according to the advance estimates of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) (chart 1 and table 1). (1) In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent. For the year 2010, real GDP increased 2.9 percent after decreasing 2.6 percent in 2009 (see page 6).

The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a sharp downturn in imports, an acceleration in consumer spending, and an upturn in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by downturns in inventory investment and in federal government spending and a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. (2)

* Prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents increased 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter after increasing 0.7 percent in the third quarter (see page 3). Energy prices and food prices both accelerated. Excluding food and energy, gross domestic purchases prices increased 1.1 percent after increasing 0.4 percent.

* Real disposable personal income (DPI) increased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter after increasing 0.9 percent in the third quarter, mainly reflecting an acceleration in current-dollar DPI, which in turn reflected an acceleration in personal income (see page 4); personal current taxes increased about the same rate in the fourth quarter as in the third quarter. The PCE implicit price deflator that is used to deflate DPI increased 1.8 percent after increasing 0.8 percent.

* The personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of current-dollar DPI, was 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter; in the third quarter, it was 5.9 percent.

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Real GDP Overview

Consumer spending increased 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter, the largest percentage increase since the first quarter of 2006. In the third quarter of 2010, it increased 2.4 percent. The largest contributors to the fourth-quarter pickup were an acceleration in motor vehicles and parts and upturns in financial services and insurance and in clothing and footwear.

Nonresidential fixed investment slowed, reflecting a slowdown in equipment and software. The main contributors to the slowdown in equipment and software were a downturn in transportation equipment and a slowdown in "other" equipment.

Residential investment turned up, mainly reflecting an upturn in "other" structures, specifically in brokers' commissions and in improvements.

Inventory investment turned down sharply and subtracted 3.70 percentage points from real GDP growth, primarily reflecting downturns in retail trade and in wholesale trade inventories.

Exports picked up, reflecting an acceleration in exports of goods. The acceleration in goods exports mainly reflected an upturn in industrial supplies and materials and a pickup in foods, feeds, and beverages. Exports of services slowed.

Imports turned down sharply, reflecting downturns in imports of both goods and services. The largest contributor to the downturn in goods imports was a downturn in petroleum and products.

Federal government spending turned down, reflecting a downturn in defense spending and a slowdown in nondefense spending.

State and local government spending turned down, mainly reflecting a downturn in investment in structures.

Real final sales of domestic product, real GDP less inventory investment, increased 7.1 percent, the largest increase since the second quarter of 1984, and added 6.87 percentage points to real GDP growth.

Motor vehicle output turned down, decreasing 14.2 percent after increasing 25.0 percent.

Final sales of computers increased 62.0 percent after increasing 65.1 percent.

Prices

Prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents, as measured by the price index for gross domestic purchases, picked up in the fourth quarter, increasing 2.1 percent after increasing 0.7 percent in the third.

Consumer prices accelerated, contributing 1.24 percentage points to the fourth-quarter increase in gross domestic purchases prices after contributing 0.53 percentage point. The acceleration mainly reflected an acceleration in prices paid for gasoline and other energy goods.

Prices paid for nonresidential fixed investment picked up somewhat, primarily reflecting an upturn in prices paid for transportation equipment.

Prices paid for residential investment turned up, increasing 2.1 percent after decreasing 0.1 percent.

Prices paid by government accelerated, mainly reflecting an acceleration in prices paid by state and local governments. A small pickup in prices paid by the federal government also contributed.

Consumer prices excluding food and energy, a measure of the "core" rate of inflation, slowed slightly, increasing 0.4 percent after increasing 0.5 percent.

The GDP price index increased 0.3 percent, 1.8 percentage points less than the percent change in the price index for gross domestic purchases, reflecting a larger increase in import prices (18.9 percent) than in export prices (8.1 percent).

Note on Prices

BEA's gross domestic purchases price index is the most comprehensive index of prices paid by U.S. residents for all goods and services. It is derived from the prices of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private investment, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment.

BEA also produces price indexes for all components of GDP. The PCE price index is a measure of the total cost of consumer goods and services, including durable goods, nondurable goods, and services. PCE prices for food, energy goods and services, and for all items except food and energy are also estimated and reported. Because prices for food and energy can be volatile, the price mea sure that excludes food and energy is often used as a measure of underlying, or "core" inflation. (The core PCE price index includes purchased meals and beverages, such as restaurant meals, and pet food. See FAQ 518 on BEA's Web site.)

BEA also prepares a supplemental PCE price index, the "market-based" PCE price index, that is based on market transactions for which there are corresponding price measures. This index excludes many imputed expenditures, such as financial services furnished without payment, that are included in PCE and the PCE price index. BEA also prepares a market-based measure that excludes food and energy.

Personal Income

Personal income, which is measured in current dollars, accelerated in the fourth quarter, increasing $128.3 billion after increasing $75.7 billion. The acceleration reflected an upturn in personal interest income and an acceleration in nonfarm proprietors' income that were partly offset by a deceleration in personal current transfer receipts.

Wage and salary disbursements increased $57.1 billion after increasing $52.0 billion. The small acceleration primarily reflected a smaller decrease in government wage and salary disbursements.

Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $14.1 billion after increasing $0.2 billion. The largest contributors to the acceleration were real estate brokers' commissions and construction.

Personal interest income increased $11.8 billion after decreasing $30.6 billion. The upturn primarily reflected an upturn in interest rates.

Personal current transfer receipts increased $16.6 billion after increasing $30.3 billion. The deceleration mainly reflected a deceleration in government social benefits to persons, the largest contributors to which were government unemployment insurance benefits and health insurance benefits (specifically Medicare).

Personal current taxes increased $28.7 billion after increasing $28.6 billion.

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Saving

Personal saving--disposable personal income less personal outlays--was $625.8 billion in the fourth quarter, a decrease of $52.9 billion. The decrease reflected a sharp increase of $152.6 billion in personal outlays that exceeded the increase of $99.6 billion in disposable personal income.

(1.) "Real" estimates are in chained (2005) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures. Each GDP estimate for a quarter (advance, second, and third) incorporates increasingly comprehensive and improved source data. More information can be found at www.bea.gov/about/infoqual.htm and www.bea.gov/faq/national/gdp_accuracy.htm. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which assumes that a rate of activity for a quarter is maintained for a year.

(2.) In this article, "consumer spending" refers to "personal consumption expenditures (PCE)," "inventory investment" refers to "change in private inventories," and "government spending" refers to "government consumption expenditures and gross investment."

Source Data for the Advance Estimates

Source Data and Key Assumptions for the Advance Estimates of GDP

While the advance estimates of many components of GDP are based on 3 months of source data, some estimates are based on only 2 months of data. For the following items, the number of months for which data are available is shown in parentheses.

Personal consumption expenditures: sales of retail stores (3), unit auto and truck sales (3), and consumers' shares of auto and truck sales (2);

Nonresidential fixed investment: unit auto and truck sales (3), construction spending (value put in place) (2), manufacturers' shipments of machinery and equipment excluding aircraft (3), shipments of civilian aircraft (2), and exports and imports of machinery and equipment (2);

Residential investment: construction spending (value put in place) (2), single-family housing starts (3), sales of new homes (3), and sales of existing houses (3);

Change in private inventories: trade and nondurable-goods manufacturing inventories (2), durable-goods manufacturing inventories (3), and unit auto and truck inventories (3);

Net exports of goods and services: exports and imports of goods and services (2);

Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: federal outlays (3), state and local government construction spending (value put in place) (2), and state and local government employment (3);

Compensation: employment, average hourly earnings, and average weekly hours (3); and

GDP prices: consumer price indexes (3), producer price indexes (3), and values and quantities of petroleum imports (2).

Unavailable source data

When source data were unavailable, BEA made various assumptions for December, including the following (table 5):

* A very slight increase in nonresidential structures,

* A small increase in aircraft shipments,

* A small decrease in single-family structures and a very slight decrease in multifamily structures,

* An increase in inventories of nondurable-goods manufacturing industries and a large increase in nonmotor vehicle merchant wholesale and retail trade industries,

* An increase in exports of goods excluding gold and a much larger increase in imports of goods excluding gold, and

* A slight increase in state and local government structures. A more comprehensive list is available on BEA's Web.

Real GDP for 2010

Real GDP increased 2.9 percent in 2010 after decreasing 2.6 percent in 2009. The upturn primarily reflected upturns in exports, nonresidential fixed investment, consumer spending, and inventory investment as well as a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by an upturn in imports.

The upturn in consumer spending added 1.27 percentage points to real GDP growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point and reflected upturns in durable goods, in services, and in nondurable goods.

The upturn in nonresidential fixed investment added 0.53 percentage point to real GDP growth and reflected an upturn in equipment and software and a smaller decrease in structures.

Residential fixed investment subtracted 0.07 percentage point from real GDP growth in 2010.

The upturn in inventory investment added 1.38 percentage points to real GDP growth after substracting 0.55 percentage point.

The upturn in exports added 1.34 percentage points to real GDP growth, reflecting widespread upturns in exports of goods. Exports of services also turned up.

The upturn in imports subtracted 1.82 percentage points from real GDP growth, reflecting widespread upturns in imports of goods. Imports of services also turned up.

Government spending slowed, reflecting a larger decrease in state and local government spending and a slowdown in federal government spending.

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Christopher Swann prepared this article.

Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product and Components

[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

                                      Share of
                                      current-
                                       dollar
                                         GDP
                                      (percent)

                                        2010

                                         IV

    Gross domestic product (1)          100.0

Personal consumption expenditures        70.8
  Goods                                  23.8
    Durable goods                         7.6
    Nondurable goods                     16.1
  Services                               47.0

Gross private domestic investment        12.1
  Fixed investment                       12.0
    Nonresidential                        9.8
      Structures                          2.6
      Equipment and software              7.2
    Residential                           2.2
  Change in private inventories           0.0

Net exports of goods and services        -3.3
  Exports                                12.9
    Goods                                 9.1
    Services                              3.9
  Imports                                16.2
    Goods                                13.5
    Services                              2.8

Government consumption expenditures
  and gross investment                   20.4
  Federal                                 8.3
    National defense                      5.6
    Nondefense                            2.7
  State and local                        12.1

                                       Change from preceding period
                                                 (percent)

                                                   2010

                                        I      II      III     IV

    Gross domestic product (1)          3.7     1.7     2.6     3.2

Personal consumption expenditures       1.9     2.2     2.4     4.4
  Goods                                 5.7     3.4     4.1    10.1
    Durable goods                       8.8     6.8     7.6    21.6
    Nondurable goods                    4.2     1.9     2.5     5.0
  Services                              0.1     1.6     1.6     1.7

Gross private domestic investment      29.1    26.2    15.0   -22.5
  Fixed investment                      3.3    18.9     1.5     4.2
    Nonresidential                      7.8    17.2    10.0     4.4
      Structures                      -17.8    -0.5    -3.5     0.8
      Equipment and software           20.4    24.8    15.4     5.8
    Residential                       -12.3    25.7   -27.3     3.4
  Change in private inventories         ...     ...     ...     ...

Net exports of goods and services       ...     ...     ...     ...
  Exports                              11.4     9.1     6.8     8.5
    Goods                              14.0    11.5     5.8    10.0
    Services                            5.8     3.9     8.9     5.1
  Imports                              11.2    33.5    16.8   -13.6
    Goods                              12.0    40.5    17.4   -15.5
    Services                            7.8     4.3    14.2    -3.8

Government consumption expenditures
  and gross investment                 -1.6     3.9     3.9    -0.6
  Federal                               1.8     9.1     8.8    -0.2
    National defense                    0.4     7.4     8.5    -2.0
    Nondefense                          5.0    12.8     9.5     3.7
  State and local                      -3.8     0.6     0.7    -0.9

                                          Contribution to percent
                                            change in real GDP
                                            (percentage points)

                                                   2010

                                        I      II      III     IV

    Gross domestic product (1)          3.7     1.7     2.6     3.2

Personal consumption expenditures      1.33    1.54    1.67    3.04
  Goods                                1.29    0.79    0.94    2.26
    Durable goods                      0.62    0.49    0.54    1.48
    Nondurable goods                   0.67    0.31    0.39    0.78
  Services                             0.03    0.75    0.74    0.78

Gross private domestic investment      3.04    2.88    1.80   -0.20
  Fixed investment                     0.39    2.06    0.18    0.50
    Nonresidential                     0.71    1.51    0.93    0.43
      Structures                      -0.53   -0.01   -0.09    0.02
      Equipment and software           1.24    1.52    1.02    0.41
    Residential                       -0.32    0.55   -0.75    0.08
  Change in private inventories        2.64    0.82    1.61   -3.70

Net exports of goods and services     -0.31   -3.50   -1.70    3.44
  Exports                              1.30    1.08    0.82    1.04
    Goods                              1.09    0.93    0.49    0.85
    Services                           0.21    0.15    0.33    0.19
  Imports                             -1.61   -4.58   -2.53    2.40
    Goods                             -1.41   -4.46   -2.16    2.29
    Services                          -0.20   -0.12   -0.37    0.11

Government consumption expenditures
  and gross investment                -0.32    0.80    0.79   -0.11
  Federal                              0.15    0.72    0.71   -0.01
    National defense                   0.02    0.40    0.46   -0.11
    Nondefense                         0.13    0.32    0.25    0.10
  State and local                     -0.48    0.08    0.09   -0.10

(1.) The estimates of GDP under the contribution columns are
also percent changes.

NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 1.1.1, contributions
are from NIPA table 1.1.2, and shares are from NIPA table 1.1.10.

Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Type of Product

[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

                                      Share of
                                      current-
                                       dollar
                                         GDP
                                      (percent)

                                        2010

                                         IV

Gross domestic product (1)              100.0

    Final sales of domestic product     100.0
    Change in private inventories         0.0
  Goods                                  28.1
  Services                               65.0
  Structures                              6.9

Addenda:

Motor vehicle output                      2.1
GDP excluding motor vehicle output       97.9
Final sales of computers                  0.7
GDP excluding final sales of
  computers                              99.3

                                       Change from preceding period
                                                 (percent)

                                                   2010

                                        I      II      III     IV

Gross domestic product (1)              3.7     1.7     2.6     3.2

    Final sales of domestic product     1.1     0.9     0.9     7.1
    Change in private inventories       ...     ...     ...     ...
  Goods                                19.5    -0.8     7.4     8.5
  Services                              0.0     1.9     1.8     1.1
  Structures                          -15.2    10.6    -7.9     2.0

Addenda:

Motor vehicle output                   42.3    -2.7    25.0   -14.2
GDP excluding motor vehicle output      3.0     1.8     2.1     3.6
Final sales of computers               19.2     5.3    65.1    62.0
GDP excluding final sales of
  computers                             3.7     1.7     2.3     2.9

                                          Contribution to percent
                                            change in real GDP
                                            (percentage points)

                                                   2010

                                        I      II      III     IV

Gross domestic product (1)              3.7     1.7     2.6     3.2

    Final sales of domestic product    1.09    0.90    0.95    6.87
    Change in private inventories      2.64    0.82    1.61   -3.70
  Goods                                4.90   -0.20    1.99    2.31
  Services                             0.02    1.21    1.15    0.72
  Structures                          -1.18    0.71   -0.58    0.14

Addenda:

Motor vehicle output                   0.74   -0.06    0.49   -0.34
GDP excluding motor vehicle output     2.99    1.78    2.07    3.51
Final sales of computers               0.10    0.03    0.29    0.31
GDP excluding final sales of
  computers                            3.63    1.69    2.27    2.86

(1.) The estimates of GDP under the contribution columns are
also percent changes.

NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 1.2.1, contributions
are from NIPA table 1.2.2, and shares are calculated from NIPA
table 1.2.5.

Table 3. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases

[Percent change at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted
index numbers (2005 = 100)]

                                          Change from preceding period
                                                    (percent)

                                                      2010

                                           I      II      III     IV

  Gross domestic purchases (1)             2.1     0.1     0.7     2.1

Personal consumption expenditures          2.1     0.0     0.8     1.8
  Goods                                    2.6    -3.6     0.9     3.6
    Durable goods                         -2.0    -1.6    -2.2    -2.4
    Nondurable goods                       4.7    -4.6     2.4     6.5
  Services                                 1.8     1.8     0.7     0.9

Gross private domestic investment         -2.0    -0.7     0.5     2.3
  Fixed investment                        -1.4    -0.7     0.1     1.0
    Nonresidential                        -1.9     0.0     0.2     0.8
      Structures                           0.9     2.0     2.9     3.2
      Equipment and software              -3.1    -0.8    -0.8    -0.1
    Residential                            0.6    -3.2    -0.1     2.1
  Change in private inventories            ...     ...     ...     ...

Government consumption expenditures
  and gross investment                     4.6     0.9     0.3     3.1
  Federal                                  4.5     0.9     0.5     1.7
    National defense                       5.3     1.2     0.5     2.1
    Nondefense                             2.8     0.2     0.4     0.9
  State and local                          4.6     0.9     0.2     4.0

Addenda:

Gross domestic purchases:
  Food                                     1.3     1.3     1.2     3.2
  Energy goods and services               15.2   -17.4     5.2    27.4
  Excluding food and energy                1.6     0.8     0.4     1.1

Personal consumption expenditures
  (PCE):
  Food and beverages for off-premises
    consumption                            1.8     1.6     0.3     1.5
  Energy goods and services               16.4   -17.5     5.4    25.8
  Excluding food and energy                1.2     1.0     0.5     0.4
  "Market-based" PCE                       1.7    -0.2     1.3     1.9
    Excluding food and energy              0.7     1.0     1.1     0.3

Gross domestic product                     1.0     1.9     2.1     0.3

                                             Contribution to percent
                                                 change in gross
                                            domestic purchases prices
                                               (percentage points)

                                                      2010

                                           I      II      III     IV

  Gross domestic purchases (1)             2.1     0.1     0.7     2.1

Personal consumption expenditures         1.43   -0.03    0.53    1.24
  Goods                                   0.57   -0.83    0.21    0.80
    Durable goods                        -0.15   -0.11   -0.16   -0.17
    Nondurable goods                      0.72   -0.72    0.37    0.98
  Services                                0.85    0.80    0.32    0.44

Gross private domestic investment         0.85    0.80    0.32    0.44
  Fixed investment                       -0.22   -0.09    0.06    0.28
    Nonresidential                       -0.16   -0.08    0.02    0.12
      Structures                         -0.18    0.00    0.02    0.07
      Equipment and software              0.02    0.05    0.07    0.08
    Residential                          -0.20   -0.05   -0.05   -0.01
  Change in private inventories          -0.06   -0.01    0.05    0.17

Government consumption expenditures
  and gross investment                    0.89    0.17    0.07    0.60
  Federal                                 0.35    0.07    0.04    0.14
    National defense                      0.28    0.06    0.03    0.11
    Nondefense                            0.07    0.01    0.01    0.02
  State and local                         0.54    0.10    0.03    0.46

Addenda:

Gross domestic purchases:
  Food                                    0.07    0.07    0.06    0.17
  Energy goods and services               0.58   -0.73    0.19    0.96
  Excluding food and energy               1.45    0.72    0.40    0.99

Personal consumption expenditures
  (PCE):
  Food and beverages for off-premises
    consumption                            ...     ...     ...     ...
  Energy goods and services                ...     ...     ...     ...
  Excluding food and energy                ...     ...     ...     ...
  "Market-based" PCE                       ...     ...     ...     ...
    Excluding food and energy              ...     ...     ...     ...

Gross domestic product                     ...     ...     ...     ...

(1.) The estimates under the contribution columns are also percent
changes

NOTE. Most percent changes are from NIPA table 1.6.7; percent changes
for PCE for food and energy goods and services and for PCE excluding
food and energy are calculated from index numbers in NIPA table 2.3.4.
Contributions are from NIPA table 1.6.8.

Table 4. Personal Income and Its Disposition

[Billions of dollars; quarterly estimates are seasonally adjusted
at annual rates]

                                                    Change from
                                    Level         preceding period

                                     2010               2010

                                      IV       I     II     III    IV

Personal income                    12,721.1  111.3  188.8   75.7  128.3

  Compensation of employees,
    received                        8,102.1   26.7  111.8   63.1   69.1
    Wage and salary disbursements   6,497.9    6.5   97.4   52.0   57.1
      Private industries            5,312.9   -4.1   89.8   59.8   57.4
        Goods-producing
          industries                1,070.3  -13.9   22.1   11.4    4.6
          Manufacturing               681.5   -5.7   19.8    8.0    1.1
        Services-producing
          industries                4,242.5    9.7   67.7   48.5   52.6
          Trade, transportation,
            and utilities           1,026.3   -0.2   17.4    9.1   11.8
          Other services-
            producing industries    3,216.2   10.1   50.2   39.4   40.8
      Government                    1,185.0   10.6    7.6   -7.8   -0.3
    Supplements to wages and
      salaries                      1,604.2   20.2   14.4   11.1   12.0
  Proprietors' income with IVA
    and CCAdj                       1,083.3    8.6   19.0    9.8   23.8
    Farm                               58.1    0.6    2.1    9.6    9.6
    Nonfarm                         1,025.1    8.1   16.8    0.2   14.1
  Rental income of persons with
    CCAdj                             309.9    9.9    6.1    5.0    6.1
  Personal income receipts on
    assets                          1,910.5   21.9    3.3  -24.7   20.8
    Personal interest income        1,186.5    2.9   -3.4  -30.6   11.8
    Personal dividend income          724.1   19.0    6.8    5.8    9.1
  Personal current transfer
    receipts                        2,333.0   57.3   40.6   30.3   16.6
  Less: Contributions for
    government social insurance     1,017.7   13.0   14.1    7.9    7.9
Less: Personal current taxes        1,206.4   17.5   14.4   28.6   28.7
Equals: Disposable personal
  income                           11,514.7   93.9  152.4   47.1   99.6
Less: Personal outlays             10,888.9   98.2   59.8   72.6  152.6
Equals: Personal saving               625.8   -4.2   92.5  -25.6  -52.9

Addenda: Special factors in
  personal income
  In government wages and
    salaries:
    Federal pay raise                   7.3    7.2    0.1    0.0    0.0
    Reservists' pay                     6.8    0.2   -0.7   -1.5   -0.7
  In supplements to wages and
    salaries:
    Employer contributions for
      social insurance                  8.3    8.3    0.0    0.0    0.0
  In personal current transfer
    receipts:
    Cost-of-living adjustments          0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
    Social security retroactive
      payments                          2.5   -2.8    0.3   -0.3    2.5
    Emergency unemployment
      compensation                     52.8   20.6  -11.9   -8.5   -6.4
    Medicare Part D coverage gap
      rebates                           1.3    0.0    0.0    1.4    0.0
    "Making Work Pay" and other
      ARRA tax credits                 32.6   32.5    0.0    0.0    0.0
    Other ARRA-related social
      benefit payments                 25.8   -6.1   -9.0   -4.1    0.4
  In contributions for government
    social insurance:
    Increase in taxable wage base       8.6    8.6    0.0    0.0    0.0
    Changes in premiums for
      supplementary medical
      insurance                         2.2    2.2    0.0    0.0    0.0
  In personal current taxes:
    Federal tax law changes
      ("Making Work Pay")             -38.6    9.6    0.0    0.0    0.0
    Refunds, settlements, and
      other                             4.8    4.8    0.0    0.0    0.0

NOTE. Dollar levels are from NIPA tables 2.1 and 2.26.

IVA Inventory valuation adjustment

CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment

Table 5. Source Data and Key Assumptions for the Advance Estimates
of GDP for the Fourth Quarter of 2010

[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates]

                                                       2010

                                             July     August     Sept.

Private fixed investment:
  Nonresidential structures:
    Value of new nonresidential
      construction put in place               252.3     253.3     258.3
  Equipment and software:
    Manufacturers' shipments of complete
      aircraft                                 47.9      40.0      32.3
  Residential structures:
    Value of new residential
      construction put in place:
      Single family                           115.1     110.2     107.2
      Multifamily                              13.8      13.1      13.8

Change in private inventories:
  Change in inventories for nondurable
    manufacturing                              46.8      -5.0      43.5
  Change in inventories for merchant
    wholesale and retail industries other
    than motor vehicles and equipment          69.9      55.7      92.1

Net exports: (2)
  Exports of goods:
    U.S. exports of goods,
      international-transactions-accounts
      basis                                 1,292.4   1,290.9   1,293.5
      Excluding gold                        1,275.2   1,265.6   1,275.9
  Imports of goods:
    U.S. imports of goods,
      international-transactions-accounts
      basis                                 1,952.6   1,999.5   1,978.5
      Excluding gold                        1,942.5   1,990.0   1,967.2
  Net exports of goods                       -660.2    -708.6    -685.1
    Excluding gold                           -667.3    -724.4    -691.3

State and local government structures:
  Value of new construction put in place      278.9     285.0     285.0

                                                       2010

                                                                 Dec.
                                             Oct.      Nov.       (1)

Private fixed investment:
  Nonresidential structures:
    Value of new nonresidential
      construction put in place               256.3     256.1     256.2
  Equipment and software:
    Manufacturers' shipments of complete
      aircraft                                 34.9      31.3      32.0
  Residential structures:
    Value of new residential
      construction put in place:
      Single family                           106.4     107.1     106.1
      Multifamily                              13.6      14.0      13.9

Change in private inventories:
  Change in inventories for nondurable
    manufacturing                              41.2      25.8      36.1
  Change in inventories for merchant
    wholesale and retail industries other
    than motor vehicles and equipment          95.0      -8.9      90.0

Net exports: (2)
  Exports of goods:
    U.S. exports of goods,
      international-transactions-accounts
      basis                                 1,346.1   1,361.9   1,373.1
      Excluding gold                        1,326.2   1,346.9   1,357.8
  Imports of goods:
    U.S. imports of goods,
      international-transactions-accounts
      basis                                 1,958.8   1,976.0   2,040.9
      Excluding gold                        1,945.6   1,959.5   2,024.0
  Net exports of goods                       -612.7    -614.1    -667.8
    Excluding gold                           -619.5    -612.6    -666.3

State and local government structures:
  Value of new construction put in place      283.5     283.1     283.3

(1.) Assumption.

(2.) Nonmonetary gold is included in balance-of-payments exports
and imports, but it is not used directly in estimating exports
and imports in the national income and product accounts.

Table 6. Real Gross Domestic Product and Components

                                                           Contribution
                              Share of                      to percent
                              current-      Change from      change in
                               dollar        preceding       real GDP
                                 GDP          period        (percentage
                              (percent)      (percent)        points)

                                2010      2009    2010    2009    2010

    Gross domestic
      product (1)               100.0      -2.6     2.9    -2.6     2.9

Personal consumption
  expenditures                   70.6      -1.2     1.8   -0.84    1.27
  Goods                          23.4      -2.0     4.3   -0.46    1.00
    Durable goods                 7.4      -3.7     7.7   -0.27    0.56
    Nondurable goods             15.9      -1.2     2.8   -0.18    0.45
  Services                       47.2      -0.8     0.5   -0.38    0.27

Gross private domestic
  investment                     12.4     -22.6    16.7   -3.24    1.84
  Fixed investment               12.0     -18.3     3.8   -2.69    0.46
    Nonresidential                9.6     -17.1     5.5   -1.96    0.53
      Structures                  2.6     -20.4   -14.0   -0.81   -0.43
      Equipment and
        software                  7.0     -15.3    15.1   -1.15    0.97
    Residential                   2.3     -22.9    -3.0   -0.74   -0.07

  Change in private
    inventories                   0.5       ...     ...   -0.55    1.38

Net exports of goods and
  services                       -3.5       ...     ...    1.13   -0.48
  Exports                        12.5      -9.5    11.7   -1.18    1.34
    Goods                         8.7     -12.0    14.6   -1.04    1.12
    Services                      3.8      -3.9     5.8   -0.15    0.22

  Imports                        16.0     -13.8    12.6    2.32   -1.82
    Goods                        13.3     -15.8    14.6    2.20   -1.72
    Services                      2.8      -4.2     3.5    0.12   -0.09

Government consumption
  expenditures and gross
  investment                     20.5       1.6     1.1    0.32    0.23
  Federal                         8.3       5.7     4.8    0.43    0.39
    National defense              5.6       5.4     3.9    0.27    0.22
    Nondefense                    2.7       6.5     6.6    0.16    0.17
  State and local                12.2      -0.9    -1.3   -0.11   -0.16

(1.) The estimates of GDP under the contribution columns are also
percent changes.

NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 1.1.1, contributions are
from NIPA table 1.1.2, and shares are from NIPA table 1.1.10.