Gross product by industry, 1991-92.

Yuskavage, Robert E.

THIS ARTICLE presents current- and constant-dollar estimates of gross product originating (GPO) by industry for 1991-92.(1) The estimates incorporate gross domestic product (GDP) and distributions by industry of the components of gross domestic income from the annual revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPA's) that was released in July 1994. These estimates update and extend the current-dollar GPO estimates for 1947-91 and the constant-dollar GPO estimates for 1977-91 that were published in the November 1993 Survey of Current Business.(2) Estimates for 1993 will be published next spring.

The first section of this article discusses how the industrial distribution of GDP has changed from 1991 to 1992. The second section reviews the revisions to the GPO estimates for 1991.

Changes in Industry GPO, 1991-92

GPO growth rates

Comparisons of constant-dollar GPO growth rates can be used to gauge the performance over time of the various industries. In 1992, real GDP increased 2.3 percent; the increase was widespread among the major industry groups, with only mining and government declining (table 1). The major contributors to the increase were finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE), services, and wholesale trade, which accounted for slightly more than one-half of the increase in real GDP (table 2).(3) Among the other industry groups, the largest rates of increase were in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries (12.1 percent), construction 3-4 percent), and transportation and public utilities (3.2 percent).

[TABULAR DATA 1 OMITTED]

According to table 2, which shows GPO estimates in greater industry detail, the largest increases in FIRE were in security and commodity brokers (31.1 percent) and insurance carriers (8.1 percent). For services, increases were widespread among the detailed industries, with decreases only in auto repair, services, and parking and in miscellaneous repair services. The increase in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries was primarily due to farms, which increased 14.3 percent. Within transportation and public utilities, substantial increases were recorded in transportation by air (10.4 percent) and in trucking and warehousing (5.8 percent).

[TABULAR DATA 2 OMITTED]

Manufacturing increased 1.5 percent, with both durable and nondurable goods industry groups increasing at the same rate. Of the 11 durable goods industries shown in table 2, 6 industries increased, and 5 decreased. The largest increase was in motor vehicles and equipment (16.6 percent); the largest decrease was in other transportation equipment (-12.6 percent). of the lo nondurable goods industries, 7 industries increased, and 3 decreased. Large increases were in leather and leather products (8-3 percent), rubber and miscellaneous plastics products (6-7 percent), and textile mill products (6.1 percent). The largest decrease was in tobacco manufactures (-8.2 percent).

The decline in mining was more than accounted for by oil and gas extraction, which fell 8.0 percent; all other mining industries increased in 1992. The decline in government, its first since 1982, was more than accounted for by

Federal general government, which fell 3.4 percent; State and local government increased 0.8 percent.

The 2.3-percent increase in real GDP in 1992 followed a decline of 0.6 percent in 1991. The largest contributors to this turnaround were FIRE, construction, and durable goods manufacturing. FIRE increased 2.8 percent after a 0.1-percent increase; the major contributors were security and commodity brokers and other real estate. Construction increased 3.4 percent after declining 7.3 percent. Durable goods manufacturing rose 1.5 percent after falling 2.1 percent; the major contributors were motor vehicles and equipment and industrial machinery and equipment. Limiting the turnaround in durable goods manufacturing was other transportation equipment, which declined more in 1992 (-12.6 percent) than in 1991 (-4.5 percent).

GPO shares

Current-dollar shares can be used to measure the relative size of industries at a given point in time. As shown in table 3, services accounted for the largest share of current-dollar GDP in 1992 (19.6 percent), followed closely by FIRE (18.4 percent) and manufacturing (17.7 percent).

[TABULAR DATA 3 OMITTED]

Constant-dollar shares can be used to measure whether an industry is becoming a larger or smaller part of the total economy over time. Since 1990, industry shares of constant-dollar GDP have changed very little; transportation and wholesale trade have increased the most, while manufacturing and construction have fallen the most.

Revisions to GPO Estimates for 1991

The revisions to the GPO estimates for 1991 are shown in table 4. The revised current-dollar estimates incorporate the results of the 1994 annual NIPA revision, which covered 1991-93. The revised constant-dollar estimates also incorporate revised source data for gross output, for intermediate input prices, and for other series used to prepare the previously published estimates. No significant changes were made to the methodologies used for the previously published estimates.(4)

[TABULAR DATA 4 OMITTED]

For 1991, the largest revisions to current-dollar GPO were in manufacturing and services. The largest revisions to constant-dollar GPO were in FIRE, services, and manufacturing. For services and manufacturing, the constant-dollar GPO revisions primarily reflect the revisions to current-dollar GPO. For FIRE, the large downward revision to constant-dollar GPO is More than accounted for by security and commodity brokers and insurance carriers, primarily reflecting downward revisions to current-dollar GPO for these industries.

The three industries in FIRE whose constant-dollar GPO is prepared by extrapolation--depository institutions, nondepository institutions, and holding and other investment offices--registered relatively large upward revisions to their current-dollar GPO. However, these revisions were not matched by similar revisions to their constant-dollar GPO because the series used for extrapolation were revised little.

The "residual," which is the difference between constant-dollar GDP less the statistical discrepancy in constant dollars and GDP in constant dollars measured as the sum of GPO by industry, was -$33.7 billion, compared with -$48.4 billion in the previously published estimates. The 1991 level was 0.7 percent of GDP.

In general, the revisions to constant-dollar GPO for 1991 did not substantially affect the rates of change of the industry groups from 1990 to 1991 (table 4). The largest revisions to growth rates were for transportation, which was revised up from 2.4 percent to 3.6 percent, and for agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, which was revised up from 1.7 percent to 2.7 percent. The growth rate for FIRE was revised down from 1.2 percent to 0.1 percent. In addition, for mining and services, small declines in 1991 were revised to small increases. For mining, the revision was primarily attributable to metal mining; for services, major contributors to the revision were educational services, amusement and recreation services, and health services.

Because revisions to both current-dollar and constant-dollar GPO for industry groups were generally small, revisions to industry shares were also generally small.

The gross product by industry program is under the supervision of Robert E. Yuskavage, Chief of the Industry Branch of the National Income and Wealth Division. Preparation of the estimates involved the following staff: Felicia V. Candela, Lance L. Lane, Sherlene K. S. Lum, Brian C. Moyer, Brooks B. Robinson, Timothy F. Slaper, John Sporing, and Robert A. Sylvester. Marilyn E. Baker and A. Vanessa Clark provided support services.

Data Availability

Estimates of gross product by industry for 1947-92 in current dollars and for 1977-92 in constant dollars are available on diskette, computer tape, and printout. Constant-dollar measures for 1977-87 for GDP and for manufacturing are available on both the benchmark-years-weighted basis and the fixed-1987-weighted basis. Current- and constant-dollar estimates of gross output and intermediate inputs by industry, of manufacturing establishment shipments, and of manufacturing product shipments are also available. For further information, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington, DC 20230 or call (202) 606-5307.

(1.) Gross product, or gross product originating (GPO) by industry is the contribution of each industry--including government--to gross domestic product (GDP). An industrys GPP, often referred to as its "value added," is equal to its gross output (sales or receipts and other operating income, plus inventory change) minus its intermediate inputs (consumption of goods and services purchased from other industries or imported). Current- and constant-dollar GDP are measured as the sum of the national income and product accounts (NIPA) expenditure components. Current-dollar GDP and the sum of the current-dollar GPO estimates differ by the statistical discrepancy; constant-dollar GDP and the sum of the constant-dollar GPO estimates differ by the constant-dollar statistical discrepancy and the "residual." For a more detailed explanation, see the box on page 33 of "Gross Product by Industry, 1977-90" in the May 1993 Survey of Current Business.

(2.) See "Gross Product by Industry, 198891," Survey 73 (November 1993): 33-44.

(3.) Changes in real GDP and in all industries for 1990-92 are calculated using fixed-1987-weighted measures, shown in table 2. In the previously published estiates, changes for 1977-87 in real GDP and in real manufacturing GPO were measured using benchmark-years-weighted indexes--one of BEA's alternative measures of real output. Benchmark-years-weighted measures for 1987-92, which are calculated using 1987 and 1992 weights, are not presented in this article because differences between this measure and the fixed-1987-weighted measure are small for GDP.

(4.) For information on the principal source data and estimating methods used in preparing the GPO estimates, see tables 5-8 in the May 1993 Survey article.