Gross product by industry, 1988-91.

Yuskavage, Robert E.

His Article presents current- and constant-dollar estimates of gross product originating (GPO) by industry for 1988-91.(1) The estimates incorporate newly available and revised source data for gross output and prices of intermediate inputs for all years and, for 1990 and 1991, gross domestic product (GDP) and distributions by industry of the components of gross domestic income from the annual revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPA's) released in August 1993. These estimates update and extend the GPO estimates for 1977-90 that were published in the May and July 1993 issues of the Survey of Current Business.(2) This article also presents newly revised current-dollar estimates Of GPO by industry for 1947-76 (shown in tables 10 and 11 at the end of the article).(3) estimates for 1992 and revised estimates for 1990-91 will be published next fau and will incorporate the annual NIPA revision scheduled for release next July.

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The first section of this article discusses changes in the industrial distribution Of GDP for 1991. The second section reviews the revisions in the GPO estimates for 1988-90 and for 1947-76.

Changes in Industry GPO, 1990-91

GPO growth rates

Comparisons of constant-dollar GPO growth rates can be used to gauge the performance over time of the various industries. In 1991, real GDP declined 0.7 percent; the decline was primarily accounted for by construction and manufacturing, which fell 7.5 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively (table 1).4

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Mining, retail trade, and services also declined. Of the other major industry groups, the largest increases were recorded in transportation and public utilities and in wholesale trade, which increased 3.4 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.

According to more detailed industry GPO estimates shown in table 8, the decline in manufacturing in 1991 was widespread among both durable goods and nondurable goods industries. Of the 13 industries whose GPO declined, motor vehicles and equipment recorded the largest drop (17 percent); this was the third consecutive decline for this industry. Other industries that recorded substantial declines were tobacco products (11.7 percent) and petroleum and coal products (10.9 percent). Of the eight industries whose GPO increased, only four recorded increases of more than 1.0 percent; instruments and related products recorded the largest gain (7-6 percent).

For the transportation and public utilities group, each of the detailed industries except transportation services increased. The largest increases were in pipelines except natural gas (15.6 percent) and in radio and television (15.5 percent).

The 0.7-percent decline in real GDP in 1991 followed an increase of 1.2 percent in 1990. Among the major industry groups, the largest contributor to this downswing was the services industry group, which declined 0.3 percent after increasing 2.8 percent. The decline in services the first during the timespan covered by the constant-dollar GPO series - was widespread; personal services, business services, miscellaneous repair services, motion pictures, legal services, and other services all declined substantially; all of these industries except personal services and miscelleaneous repair services had increased in 1990. Other large contributors to the downswing in real GDP were manufacturing and construction; GPO for both these groups declined more in 1991 than in 1990. In contrast, wholesale trade increased in 1991 after declining in 1990, and finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE) increased more in 1991 than in 1990.

GPO shares

Current-dollar shares can be used to measure the relative size of the various GPO industries at a given point in time. As shown in table 2, the largest share of current-dollar GDP in 1991 was accounted for by services (19.0 percent), followed closely by FIRE (18.2 percent) and manufacturing 17.9 percent). Services also accounted for the largest share in 1990 (18.8 percent); however, manufacturing accounted for the second largest share (18.5 percent) and FIRE the third largest (17.7 percent) in 1990.

Constant-dollar shares can be used to measure whether an industry is becoming a larger or smaller part of the total economy over time. Since 1989, the shares of constant-dollar GDP accounted for by transportation and public utilities, services, and government increased the most. The shares of construction and manufacturing fell the most.

Revisions in GPO

Estimates for 1988-90

The revisions to the GPO estimates for 1988-90 are shown in tables 3 and 4. The revised estimates of both current- and constant-dollar GPO for 1990 incorporate results from the 1993 annual NIPA revision, which covered 1990-92. In addition, the constant-dollar GPO estimates were revised for 1988-90 to reflect revised source data for gross output and intermediate input prices. No changes were made to the methodologies used for the previously published estimates.(5)

For 1988-89, the revisions to the estimates of gross output stemmed primarily from revisions to four Census Bureau surveys - Annual Retail Trade Survey, Annual Trade Survey (wholesale trade), Services Annual Survey, and Motor Freight and Warehousing Survey. These revisions, which were released this spring, incorporated updated samples and the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC). (For the previously published GPO estimates, BEA had converted these Census Bureau series to the 1987 sic using summary information from the 1987 Economic Censuses.) Other source data revisions for 1988-89 included data from the Bureau of Mines on mineral production and prices and data from trade sources on the volume of financial security transactions. Because these 1988-89 revisions affected constant-dollar GPO estimates but not constant-dollar GDP, the estimates of the "residual" for 1988-89 were also revised. (The "residual" is the difference between constant-dollar GDP less the statistical discrepancy in constant dollars and GDP in constant dollars measured as the sum of GPO by industry.)

For 1990, the revisions to constant-dollar GPO primarily reflect the revisions to current-dollar GPO and the revised source data for gross output and intermediate input prices for 1988-89; they also reflect revisions to other source data used to prepare the previously published estimates. The largest such revision, which affected manufacturing gross output, was the incorporation of an adjustment to shipments data from the 1990 Annual Survey of Manufactures to account for a downward bias that had resulted from an incomplete incorporation of new businesses. The adjustment, which was incorporated in the estimates of producers' durable equipment in the August 1993 NIPA revision, increased the level of total manufactures' shipments by 1.2 percent for 1990.

In general, the revisions in constant-donar GPO for 1988-90 did not substantially affect the rates of change of the major industry groups (table 5). For transportation GPO, however, the revised estimates show an increase of 2.0 percent in 1988, compared with a previously published decline of 1.7 percent. This upward revision is attributable to the revision in source data for motor freight and warehousing. For 1990, the growth rate for mining has been revised up substantially, from 4.8 percent to 10.2 percent. This upward revision is largely attributable to the current-dollar GPO estimates for oil and gas extraction in 1990. As shown in tables 3 and 4, revisions to both current-dollar and constant-dollar GPO for major industry groups were small. Thus, revisions to industry shares were also small.

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Estimates for 1947-76

The revised 1947-76 current-dollar GPO estimates incorporate the December 1991 comprehensive NIPA revision and the May 1993 GPO revision. As shown in table II, the revisions to GDP and to the major industry groups were small for all years.

(1.) Gross product, or gross product originating (GPO) by industry is the contribution of each industry - including government - to gross domestic product (GDP). An industry's GPO, often referred to as its "value added," is equal to its gross output (sales or receipts and other operating income, plus inventory change) minus its intermediate inputs (consumption of goods and services purchased from other industries or imported). Current and constant-dollar GDP are measured as the sum of the national income and product accounts (NIPA) expenditure components. Current-dollar GDP and the sum of the current-dollar GPO estimates differ by the statistical discrepancy; constant-dollar GDP and the sum of the constant-dollar GPO estimates differ by the constant-dollar statistical discrepancy and the "residual." See page 33 of the May 1993 Survey of Current Business for a more detailed explanation. (2.) See "Gross Product by Industry, 1977-90," Survey 73 (May 1993): 33-54 and "Corrections and Additions: Gross Product by Industry," Survey 73 (July 1993): 39-32. (3.) The revised current-dollar estimates for 1947-76 incorporate the most recent comprehensive revision of the NIPA's; they replace estimates published in National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-82: Statistical Tables (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1986). Constant-dollar estimates prior to 1977 are not available. (4.) Changes in real GDP and in all industries for 1988-91 are calculated using fixed-1987-weighted measures, shown in table 8. ln the previously published estimates, changes for 1977-87 in real GDP and in real manufacturing GPO were measured using the benchmark-years-weighted indexes - one of BEA's alternative measures of real outptit. For a detailed explanation of the selection and the use of these measures, see pages 36-37 of the May 1993 Survey. (5.) For information on the principal source data and estimating methods used in preparing the GPO estimates, see tables 5-8 in the May 1993 Survey article.