Personal income by region and state, third quarter 1991.

DePass, Rudolph E. ; Friedenberg, Howard L.

PERSONAL INCOME growth in the Nation slowed in the third quarter of 1991. It increased 0.7 percent after increasing 1.1 percent in the second quarter; it had increased only 0.1 percent in the first quarter. (1) (These percent changes reflect the recently released comprehensive revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPA'S); however, the State personal income estimates do not yet fully incorporate the revised NIPA estimates. See the box on page 141.)

The slowdown in personal income growth was widespread by region and State. Growth slowed in all regions except the Far West, where it was unchanged from the second-quarter rate. Growth slowed in 34 States; the sharpest decelerations

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were in farm States in the Plains and Rocky Mountain regions. (See tables 1 and 2 at the end of this article.)

Comparison of Latest Year With Prior

Expansion

In the four quarters following the third quarter of 1990, the peak quarter of the 1982-90 expansion, personal income in the Nation increased 2.8 percent. By comparison, during the 1982-90 expansion (that is, from the fourth quarter of 1982 to the third quarter of 1990), personal income in the Nation had increased at an annual rate of 7.3 percent (table A).

As shown in the bottom panel of chart 1, of the four regions that had faster-than-average income growth during the expansion, three--New England, Far West, and Mideast--had slower-than-average growth following the third-quarter 1990 peak. (In the Southeast region, income grew faster than average during both times-pan.) Conversely, all four of the regions that had slower-than-average income growth during the expansion--Great Lakes, Southwest, Plains, and Rocky Mountain--had faster-than-average growth following the peak.

Income growth by region

In the Rocky Mountain region, personal income increased faster than the U.S. average in the year following the peak; it had increased slower than average during the expansion. Payrolls in construction and in mining increased at above-average rates after declining (table B). Payrolls in all private service-type industries and in government had above-average gains after below-average gains.

In the Southwest, personal income increased faster than average following the peak after increasing slower than average during the expansion. Payrolls in construction and in mining increased at above-average rates after declining or being unchanged. Payrolls in manufacturing, in most private service-type industries, and in government had above-average gains after below-average gains.

In the Plains region, personal income increased faster than average following the peak after increasing slower than average during the expansion. Payrolls in nondurables manufacturing increased faster than average after increasing at the average rate. Payrolls in most private service-type industries and in government had above-average gains after below-average gains.

In the Southeast, personal income increased faster than average following the peak and during the expansion. Payrolls in trade, in services, and in government increased at above-average rates during both timespans.

In the Great Lakes region, personal income increased slightly faster than average following the peak after increasing slower than average during the expansion. Payrolls in retail trade, in the finance-insurance-real estate group, and in government increased at above-average rates after increasing at below-average rates.

In the Far West, personal income increased slower than average following the peak after increasing faster than average during the expansion. Payrolls in durables manufacturing, in construction, in the transportation-public utilities group, and in trade declined after increasing at above-average rates. Payrolls in nondurables manufacturing and in the finance-insurance-real estate group had below-average gains after above-average gains.

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In the Mideast, personal income increased slower than average following the peak after increasing faster than average during the expansion. Payrolls in construction and in retail trade declined after increasing at above-average rates. Payrolls in the finance-insurance-real estate group, in services, and in government had below-average gains after above-average or average gains.

In New England, personal income increased slower than average following the peak after increasing faster than average during the expansion. Payrolls in construction, in the transportation-public utilities group, and in trade declined after increasing at above-average rates. Payrolls in the finance-insurance-real estate group, in services, and in government had below-average gains after above-average gains.

Income growth by State

For most States, the rate of income growth relative to the U.S. average following the peak differed from that during the expansion. Following the peak, personal income increased at below-average rates in 14 States (chart 2); all of those States except Michigan had experienced faster-than-average growth during the expansion. Following the peak, personal income increased at average or above-average rates in 36 States; in 26 of those States, personal income had increased at below-average rates during the expansion.

The 10 States with the slowest growth in personal income following the peak were the six New England States and New Jersey, New York, Maryland, and California. In each of these States, payrolls in construction plunged, and those in manufacturing and in retail trade declined sharply; payrolls in services grew slower than average. During the expansion, payrolls in construction (except in New Hampshire), in retail trade, and in services (except in New York) had increased faster than average.

The 10 States with the fastest growth in personal income following the peak were Utah, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Texas, New Mexico, Arkansas, Nebraska, Arizona, and Montana. In each of these States, payrolls in services and in retail trade grew faster than average; during the expansion, payrolls in these industries had increased slower than average in Idaho, Louisiana, Texas, New Mexico, Arkansas, Nebraska, and Montana. Following the peak, construction payrolls, increased sharply in Utah, Idaho, and Hawaii, and mining payrolls increased sharply in Texas, Louisiana, New Mexico, and Arizona; during the expansion, construction payrolls had increased slower than average in Utah and Idaho, and mining payrolls had declined in Texas, Louisiana, and New Mexico.

Tables 1 and 2 follow.

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