Personal income by state and region, first quarter 1992.

DePass, Rudolph E. ; Friedenberg, Howard L.

Personal Income in the Nation grew somewhat faster in the first quarter of 1992 than in the fourth quarter of 1991: It increased 1.3 percent after increasing 0.9 percent.(1)

Personal income growth picked up in 34 States in the first quarter of 1992. The States with the sharpest pickups were mainly in the Southeast and Far West regions. Personal income growth slowed in 14 States. The States with the sharpest slowdowns were North Dakota, Montana, South Dakota, Kansas, and Idaho, where drops in farm income followed large Federal subsidy payments for wheat and barley in December 1991. Personal income growth was unchanged in Pennsylvania and Minnesota. (See tables 1 and 2 at the end of this article.)

Income growth since the first quarter of 1991

Personal income in the Nation increased 4.1 percent in the four quarters since the first quarter of 1991, the last quarter in which real gross domestic product declined. During the same period, prices measured by the fixed-weighted price index for personal consumption expenditures increased 3.0 percent. In 40 States, the increases in personal income exceeded the 3.0-percent increase in prices. In 10 East Coast States, the increases in personal income were less than the increase in prices.

Chart 1 shows the 15 States with the fastest growth in personal income and the 15 States with the slowest growth in personal income. Twelve of the fifteen States with the fastest growth are in the western half of the United States. Most of these States are sparsely populated, and most of them had slower-than-average income growth during the expansion of the 1980's. As a group, these States account for less than 20 percent of the Nation's personal income. Except for California, the States with the slowest growth are on, or near, the East Coast. Most of these States are densely populated, and most of them had faster-than-average income growth during the expansion of the 1980's. As a group, these States account for nearly 50 percent of the Nation's personal income.

Fastest growing States.--Increases in personal income in the 15 fastest growing States ranged from 7.3 percent in Idaho to 5.3 percent in Louisiana and Washington (table A). All 15 States had above-average increases in payrolls in retail trade and in services. Most had above-average increases in payrolls in nondurables manufacturing, in the transportation-public utilities group, in wholesale trade, in government, and in construction. In Montana, Colorado, Louisiana, Kansas, and Kentucky, construction payrolls increased more than 10 percent, in contrast to a 3.5-percent decline for the Nation. [TABULAR DATA A OMITTED]

Above-average increases in farm income boosted personal income growth in Mississippi, Montana, Oregon, Washington, Kentucky, North Carolina, Idaho, and South Dakota. In Mississippi, Montana, and Washington, the increases reflected increases in cash receipts; in addition, Federal subsidy payments benefited cotton farmers in Mississippi and wheat farmers in Montana, Oregon, and Washington.

In some of the fastest growing States, payrolls in particular industries were weak. In Colorado, Louisiana, Montana, Texas, and Utah, payrolls in durables manufacturing declined. In Idaho, Colorado, Mississippi, and Kentucky, mining payrolls declined more than 10 percent. In Arkansas, farm income declined, reflecting lower Federal subsidy payments to rice farmers.

Slowest growing States.--Increases in personal income in the 15 slowest growing States ranged from 1.0 percent in Rhode Island to 3.5 percent in Florida. All 15 States had declines in payrolls in construction; in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and New Jersey, construction payrolls have declined in every quarter since the first quarter of 1989. Most of the States had declines or no change in payrolls in durables manufacturing, in the transportation-public utilities group, in wholesale trade, and in the Federal Government. Most had below-average increases in payrolls in retail trade, in the finance-insurance-real estate group, and in services.

In some of the slowest growing States, increases in payrolls in particular industries were well above average: Nondurables manufacturing in Vermont, Maryland, and South Carolina; durables manufacturing in Delaware and Vermont; retail trade in Maine; and the finance-insurance-real estate group in New York, Delaware, and Pennsylvania.

Tables 1 and 2 follow. [TABULAR DATA 1 AND 2 OMITTED] (1.) These percent changes are not at annual rates.

Revision Schedule for State Personal Income

The estimates of the components of State personal income reflect the 1991 comprehensive (benchmark) revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPA's) only to the extent that quarterly movements in the component NIPA series were used as extrapolators to derive national control totals for 1991 and for the first quarter of 1992.(1) The comprehensive revision of the NIPA estimates, together with the annual revision of the NIPA's presented in this issue of the Survey of Current Business, will be incorporated into the 1969-91 annual State personal income estimates to be published in the August 1992 Survey. The revisions will be incorporated into the State quarterly personal income estimates in two stages: Revised estimates for 1986-91 and for the first and second quarters of 1992 will be published in the October 1992 Survey, and those for 1969-85 will be published in the April 1993 Survey. (1.) For a description of the NIPA revision, see "The Comprehensive Revision of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts: A Review of Revisions and Major Statistical Changes," Survey of Current Business 71 (December 1991): 24-42.

For a description of the relation of the State quarterly series for 1991

to the revised national estimates, see the box on page 74 of the April

1992 Survey.