State personal income, first quarter, 1987.
DePass, Rudolph E.
State Personal Income, First Quarter 1987
PERSONAL income increased in 44 States and declined in 6 States in
the first quarter of 1987. Swings in farm income dominated the changes
in personal income in States with large increases or declines. Changes
in Federal farm subsidy payments, in turn, were major causes for changes
in farm income. The largest first-quarter increases in personal income
were in Iowa and Nebraska, where farm income was boosted by advance
subsidy payments on the 1987 corn crop, and in Arkansas and Mississippi,
where farm income was boosted by payments on the 1986 cotton and rice
crops. Personal income declined in North Dakota, Montana, Idaho,
Kansas, and Oklahoma, where farm income fell following large
fourth-quarter payments on the 1986 wheat crop.
The effects of subsidy payments can vary substantially from State
to State and from quarter to quarter. Crop production usually is
concentrated in a few States, each eligible crop is under a different
subsidy program, and the subsidies are not paid out evenly over the
year. In Iowa, for example, due in large part to the quarterly pattern
of payments on the corn crop, personal income including farm income
fluctuated substantially more in recent quarters than personal income
excluding farm income.
Nonfarm personal income
Because farm income is subject to erratic changes, as indicated
above, it is often preferable to use nonfarm personal income rather than
total personal income to track current economic developments in States.
Nonfarm personal income for the Nation increased 1.5 percent in the
first quarter.
States with the largest percentage increases in nonfarm personal
income were: Delaware, 2.9 percent; Nevada, 2.5 percent; Vermont, 2.5
percent; Tennessee, 2.4 percent; Maine, 2.3 percent; Iowa, 2.2 percent;
and New Hampshire, 2.1 percent. In Delaware and Iowa, large increases
in durables manufacturing payrolls contributed to the nonfarm income
gains. The manufacturing payroll increase in Delaware --the largest in
the Nation--reflected increased production of small and mid-sized
automobiles, and the payroll increase in Iowa--the second largest in the
Nation--reflected the ending of a strike against a major farm equipment
manufacturer.
In Vermont, Tennessee, and Maine, large increases in construction
payrolls contributed to the nonfarm income gains. The construction
payroll increases in Vermont and Maine--the two largest in the
Nation--reflected strong demand for residential structures, and the
increase in Tennessee reflected strong demand for commercial and
industrial structures. In Nevada, large payroll increases in all major
private service-type industries contributed to the nonfarm income gain,
and in New Hampshire, a large increase in retail trade payrolls was the
major source of increase.
Alaska was the only State in which nonfarm personal income
declined. States with the smallest percentage increases were: Wyoming,
0.3 percent; Oklahoma, 0.5 percent; Louisiana and Utah, each 0.6
percent; Nebraska and New Mexico, each 0.9 percent; and Kansas,
Missouri, and Texas, each 1.0 percent. Despite a first-quarter
turnaround in energy prices, continuing weakness in oil exploration and
production adversely affected nonfarm income in the oil-producing States of Alaska, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Louisiana, New Mexico, and Texas. In
Alaska, in addition, reduced transfer payments to persons, reflecting
the completion of fiscal year 1987 dividend payments from the Alaska
Permanent Fund, contributed to the decline. In Nebraska, Kansas, and
Missouri, continuing weakness in private service-type payrolls as a
result of weak farm prices and production adversely affected nonfarm
income. In Nebraska, in addition, a strike by food processing workers
led to a decline in nondurables manufacturing payrolls.
Quarterly estimates of State personal income appear at the end of
this article. Quarterly estimates of State nonfarm personal income are
available from the Regional Economic Information System (BE-55), Bureau
of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC
20230; phone (202) 523-0966. The quarterly estimates do not reflect the
July 1987 revisions to the national income and product accounts; those
revisions will be incorporated in the quarterly estimates of State
personal income that will be published in the October 1987 SURVEY OF
CURRENT BUSINESS. The revision to farm income is likely to affect the
State income changes discussed in this article.
State Quarterly Personal Income, 1969:I-1987:I
Table: [Percent change from preceding quarter at quarterly rate]
Table: 1.--Total Personal Income for States and Regions