Regional and state projections of income, employment, and population to the year 2000.

Johnson, Kenneth P. ; Friedenberg, Howard L.

Regional and State Projections of Income, Employment, and Population to the Year 2000

THIS article presents regional and State projections to 2000 of total personal income (TPI), earnings and employment for 13 industries, and population, based on data through 1983. An article in the November 1980 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS presented projections of these measures to 2000, based on data through 1978.

These projections are based on an extension of past economic relationships and assume no major policy changes. They are neither goals for, nor limits on, future economic activity in any region or State. These projections have three major uses: (1) Assessing future demand for goods and services by households, businesses, and government, (2) foreseeing future economic problems so that corrective policies can be adopted, and (3) providing a "baseline' for measuring the effects of a policy by modifying the projections to reflect the policy and comparing the modified projections with the initial projections.

The first part of this article discusses projected trends to the year 2000 in TPI, population, per capita personal income, and earnings by industry for the United States, regions, and States. The second part discusses projection methodology.

Projected Trends, 1983-2000

United States

For the United States, TPI (expressed in 1972 dollars) is projected to grow 2.6 percent per year in 1983-2000; population, 0.8 percent; and per capita personal income (expressed in 1972 dollars), 1.8 percent. The growth rates in TPI and in per capita personal income will be more than the corresponding rates in 1973-83, and the growth rate in population will be less than the 1973-83 rate. The projected acceleration in TPI mainly reflects a large acceleration in earnings--that is, labor income, consisting of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income, and proprietors' income.

Earnings (expressed in 1972 dollars), the largest component of TPI, is projected to grow 2.9 percent per year. Major industries in which the earnings growth rate will exceed the all-industry earnings growth rate are services; finance-insurance-real estate; transportation-communication-public utilities; mining; construction; and durables manufacturing (chart 8). In the first four industries, earnings grew at above-average rates in 1973-83. In construction and durables manufacturing, in contrast, earnings grew at below-average rates. The projected shift in construction earnings occurs in part because demand for new structures is projected to return to its long-term growth path. The projected shift in durables manufacturing earnings reflects the national defense buildup. In durables manufacturing, earnings will grow at well-above-average rates in instruments, machinery, fabricated metals, and transportation equipment.

Major industries in which the earnings growth rate will fall short of the all-industry rate are Federal government, nondurables manufacturing (in particular, leather, textiles, apparel, and food processing), retail trade, farming, State and local government, and wholesale trade. In the first four industries, earnings also grew at below-average rates in 1973-83. In State and local government and in wholesale trade, in contrast, earnings grew at above-average rates. The projected shift in State and local government earnings reflects taxpayers' continuing concern for limiting State and local government expenditures.

In the two following sections, the United States is divided into two regional groupings, fast growing and slow growing, based on the projected average annual growth rate in TPI. For each grouping, projected trends relative to the U.S. average in TPI, population, and per capita personal income are summarized. For the regions and States within each grouping, projected trends relative to the U.S. average in TPI, per capita personal income, and earnings by industry are summarized.

Fast-growing regions

In 1983-2000, each of four southern and western regions (Rocky Mountain, Southwest, Far West, and Southeast), as well as the New England region, is projected to have a growth advantage (that is, an index based on the ratio of growth in the region to growth in the United States is more than 100) in TPI and population (table 1). In 1973-83, each southern and western region had a larger advantage in each measure; New England, in contrast, had a growth disadvantage (that is, an index based on the ratio of growth in the region to growth in the United States is less than 100) in each measure in 1973-83.

For each southern and western region, the projected TPI advantage is a continuation, at a dampened rate, of a tendency for manufacturing and related private service-type industries to disperse to the South and West to benefit from relatively low wage rates, energy and land costs, and State and local taxes. The population advantage is based on an advantage in employment and a continuation, at a dampened rate, of a tendency for workers and retirees to migrate from the North to the South and West. For New England, the projected TPI and population advantages reflect a continuation of a recent trend toward rapid job growth in "high-technology' manufacturing and in related research and development services; in part, the rapid growth is a response to the national defense buildup.

In each of the five regions, per capita personal income is projected to converge toward the U.S. average (chart 9). In the Rocky Mountain, Southwest, and Southeast regions, per capita personal income, which was below the U.S. average in 1983, is projected to increase faster than in the United States. In the Far West and New England, per capita personal income, which was above the U.S. average in 1983, is projected to increase more slowly than in the United States.

Rocky Mountain.--Each State will have a growth advantage in TPI; growth per year will range from 3.8 percent in Utah to 2.7 percent in Montana (table 2 and chart 10). In 2000, the region's per capita personal income is projected to be 96 percent of the U.S. average; per capita income will continue to be below the U.S. average in Utah, Idaho, and Montana and above the average in Wyoming and Colorado (table 3).

The region's projected growth advantage in TPI reflects earnings advantages in all of the major industries that are projected to grow relatively rapidly nationwide (tables 4 and 5). In mining, advantages in oil and gas extraction, particularly in Wyoming and Colorado, and coal mining, particularly in Wyoming, reflect the Nation's dependence on this region for part of its long-term energy supply. In durables manufacturing, advantages in technologically advanced machinery, transportation equipment, fabricated metals, and instruments reflect a continuation of the region's rapid industrialization, particularly in Utah and Colorado. In services and in the transportation and finance groups, advantages reflect the increasing self-sufficiency of the region in supplying these services.

Southwest.--Each State will have a growth advantage in TPI; growth per year will range from 4.3 percent in Arizona to 2.6 percent in Oklahoma. In 2000, the region's per capita personal income is projected to be 98 percent of the U.S. average; per capita income will be below the U.S. average in each Southwest State except Texas, where it will equal the average.

The region's projected growth advantage in TPI reflects earnings advantages in most fast-growing major industries. In durables manufacturing, advantages in machinery, instruments, fabricated metals, and aerospace equipment reflect the regional effects of the national defense buildup, particularly in Texas. In services and in the transportation and finance groups, advantages reflect both the rapid growth of manufacturing and a continuation of rapid growth in population --in particular, in the number of retirees who migrate to Arizona. In mining, despite an advantage in oil and gas extraction in 1973-83, no advantage is projected, as competing energy sources in other regions are increasingly developed.

Far West.--Each State will have a growth advantage in TPI; growth per year will range from 3.9 percent in Nevada to 2.8 percent in California. In 2000, the region's per capita personal income is projected to be 107 percent of the U.S. average; per capita income will be above the U.S. average in each Far West State except Oregon.

The region's projected growth advantage in TPI reflects earnings advantages in nearly all fast-growing major industries. In durables manufacturing, advantages in technologically advanced equipment--such as scientific instruments, computing equipment, and aerospace equipment --reflect the regional effects of the national defense buildup, particularly in California and Washington. An advantage in plastics, which is the only nondurables manufacturing industry that is projected to grow rapidly nationwide, also reflects the buildup. An advantage in business services reflects strong demand by the technologically advanced industries for research and development, consulting, and data processing services. Advantages in hotels and amusement-recreation services reflect continuing strength in tourism, particularly in Nevada. An advantage in health services reflects the region's rapid population growth.

Southeast.--Each State, except West Virginia, Kentucky, Alabama, and Virginia, will have a growth advantage in TPI; growth per year will range from 3.5 percent in Florida to 2.1 percent in West Virginia. In 2000, the region's per capita personal income is projected to be 90 percent of the U.S. average; per capita income will be below the U.S. average in each Southeast State except Virginia.

The region's projected growth advantage in TPI reflects earnings advantages in nearly all fast-growing major industries. In durables manufacturing, advantages in both fabricated metals and machinery--particularly in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Mississippi--and an advantage in transportation equipment-- particularly in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Florida--reflect the national defense buildup. Advantages in construction and related financial and real estate services reflect strength in manufacturing, as well as a continuation of rapid growth in population-- in particular, in the number of retirees who migrate to Florida. Advantages in amusement-recreation services and air transportation reflect strength in tourism, again particularly in Florida. In mining, in contrast, a disadvantage reflects a loss of competitive position in coal production, particularly in West Virginia and Kentucky.

New England.--Each State except Maine and Rhode Island will have a growth advantage in TPI; growth per year will range from 3.1 percent in New Hampshire to 2.3 percent in Maine. In 2000, the region's per capita personal income is projected to be 110 percent of the U.S. average; per capita income will be above the U.S. average in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire, and below the U.S. average in Maine, Vermont, and Rhode Island.

The region's projected growth advantage in TPI reflects earnings advantages, or earnings growth near the U.S. average, in most fast-growing major industries. In durables manufacturing, advantages in electronic and computing equipment in part reflect a continuing resurgence in the industrial application of technological innovations developed at major New England universities and in part reflect the national defense buildup. In construction, earnings growth near the U.S. average reflects strength in manufacturers' demand for new structures. Growth near the U.S. average in business services reflects strength in manufacturers' demand for research and development and data processing services. Growth near the U.S. average in insurance reflects a continuation of New England's long-standing role of providing this service to other regions.

Slow-growing regions

In 1983-2000, each of three northern and central regions (Plains, Great Lakes, and Mideast) is projected to have a growth disadvantage in TPI and population. In 1973-83, each region had a larger disadvantage in each measure. The TPI disadvantage projected for the northern and central regions is a continuation, at a dampened rate, of weakness in manufacturing in the Nation's oldest manufacturing centers, which will continue to be adversely affected by industrial shakeout. The population disadvantage is based on a disadvantage in employment and a continuation, at a dampened rate, of the migration of workers and retirees to the South and West.

In each of the three regions, per capita personal income is projected to converge toward the U.S. average. In the Plains and Great Lakes regions, per capita personal income, which was below the U.S. average in 1983, is projected to increase faster than in the United States. In the Mideast, per capita personal income, which was above the U.S. average in 1983, is projected to increase more slowly than in the United States.

Plains.--Each State except Minnesota will have a growth disadvantage in TPI; growth per year will range from 2.7 percent in Minnesota to 2.2 percent in Iowa. In 2000, the region's per capita personal income is projected to be 99 percent of the U.S. average; per capita income will be below the U.S. average in each Plains State except Kansas and Minnesota.

The region's projected growth disadvantage in TPI reflects earnings disadvantages in manufacturing and service-type industries. In addition, farming, which accounts for a larger share of earnings in the Plains than in any other region, will contribute to the region's overall disadvantage. In manufacturing, a disadvantage in food processing reflects the close relationship of earnings in this industry to farm earnings. Among service-type industries, disadvantages occur in the wholesaling and trucking of agricultural commodities.

Great Lakes.--Each State will have a growth disadvantage in TPI; growth per year will range from 2.4 percent in Indiana to 1.9 percent in Illinois. In 2000, the region's per capita personal income is projected to equal the U.S. average; per capita income will be above the U.S. average in Illinois and Michigan and below the U.S. average in Indiana, Wisconsin, and Ohio.

The region's projected growth disadvantage in TPI reflects earnings disadvantages in most major industries. In durables manufacturing, disadvantages, particularly in Michigan and Ohio, in the motor vehicles industry and in industries that supply inputs to it, such as primary and fabricated metals and machinery, reflect a continuation of a tendency for durables firms to choose lower cost locations in nearby Southeast States. In nondurables manufacturing, a disadvantage in rubber tire manufacturing reflects its role as a supplier to the motor vehicles industry. In construction, trans-portation, trade, and services, disadvantages reflect weakness in manufacturing and a rate of population growth that is projected to be slower than in any other region.

Mideast.--Each State will have a growth disadvantage in TPI; growth per year will range from 2.5 percent in New Jersey to 1.9 percent in Pennsylvania. In 2000, the region's per capita personal income is projected to be 107 percent of the U.S. average; per capita income will be above the U.S. average in each Mideast State except Pennsylvania.

The region's projected growth disadvantage in TPI reflects earnings disadvantages in all major industries. In manufacturings, disadvantages in apparel, particularly in New York and Pennsylvania, and primary metals, particularly in Pennsylvania and Maryland, reflect a continuation of a tendency for manufacturers to choose sites near rapidly growing markets in the South and West, at the expense of traditional production sites in the Mideast. In wholesale trade, a disadvantage reflects the continuing decline of the New York metropolitan area, relative to southern and western areas like Miami and Los Angeles, as a center for international trade. In construction and most service industries, disadvantages reflect weakness in manufacturing and slow growth in population.

Projection Methodology

The methodology underlying the projections presented in this article is similar to that discussed in the 1980 article. The national projections are based mainly on the work of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in order to take advantage of that agency's expertise in making detailed national projections of employment by industry. The State projections of total employment and earnings are based on detailed projections for 57 industries.

The projections are made in two major steps--for the Nation, and then for the States. (Projections for each BEA region are the sum of the projections for each State in the region.) In the national step, GNP is projected, based on projections of population, labor force, employment, and productivity. TPI and total earnings are projected based on GNP. Then, employment and earnings by industry are projected.

In the State step, employment and earnings by industry are projected within the framework of the corresponding projected national totals by industry. Moreover, employment and earnings by industry are projected so as to ensure interindustry consistency in earnings per employee within each State. Then, population is projected, based on projections of total employment. Finally, nonearnings components of TPI are projected, based on projections of population and total earnings. The State projections are developed within a framwork of national totals, rather than independently for each State, because the historical measures on which the projections are based are more reliable and stable for larger areas.

National projections

GNP.--GNP projections (expressed in 1972 dollars) are made by multiplying projected total employment, on a job-count basis, by projected GNP per employee. Projections of job-count employment are based mainly on projections of (1) population, in particular, the civilian noninstitutional adult population, (2) labor force, and (3) employment, on a persons-employed basis.

Projections of total population are from the Census Bureau's middle series of national projections. This series assumes that in 2000 the completed fertility rate will be 1,960 births per 1,000 women and that life expectancy at birth will be 76.7 years. The series assumes that net immigration will be 450,000 persons per year. Projections of the civilian noninstitutional adult population, a subset of total population, are mainly from BLS.

Labor force projections, also mainly from BLS, are made by first projecting labor force participation rates, by age and sex, and then applying these rates to the civilian noninstitutional adult population. BLS projections of civilian unemployment rates are 6.3 percent in 1990 and 6.0 percent in 1995; BEA's extension of the BLS trend yields an unemployment rate of 5.7 percent in 2000.

Projections of employment, on a persons-employed basis, are made by subtracting unemployment from labor force. Projections of job-count employment are equal to projected employment, on a persons-employed basis, increased by the projected percentage of workers who hold more than one job.

Projections of GNP per employee are derived in three steps from BLS projections. First, BLS projections of GNP (based on trends through 1982) in 1990 and 1995 are increased by 2 percent to reflect the stronger-than-average recovery in productivity growth from 1982 to 1983. Second, the resulting GNP projections are divided by job-count employment, already projected, to obtain GNP per employee in 1990 and 1995. Third, the resulting 1990-95 growth in GNP per employee (5.8 percent) is assumed to prevail in 1995-2000, in order to obtain GNP per employee in 2000. As noted earlier, projections of GNP are the product of projected GNP per employee and projected job-count employment.

Personal income.--Because methodologies for estimating gross product of States are still in a developmental stage, the GNP projection must be translated into some other measure for States.1 The measure chosen is TPI, the most comprehensive measure of regional economic activity currently available.

1. A forthcoming BEA Staff Paper, "Experimental Estimates of Gross State Product by Industry,' discusses sources, methods, and potential applications for a set of experimental estimates of gross product by industry for States.

TPI consists of earnings, less personal contributions for social insurance, plus rental income of persons, personal dividend income, personal interest income, and transfer payments. Each component of TPI is projected, based on the trend in the ratio of the component to a national total that already was projected.

Earnings, the largest component of TPI, is projected to be 60.0 percent of GNP in both 1990 and 2000. Personal contributions for social insurance is projected to be 6.8 percent of earnings in 1990 and 7.6 percent in 2000. Rental income of persons and personal dividend income are projected to be 3.7 percent of GNP in both 1990 and 2000. Personal interest income is projected to decline to 10.4 percent of GNP in 1990 and to 9.8 percent in 2000.

Transfer payments are projected in two parts. The larger part--payments made under old-age, survivors', disability, and health insurance programs (OASDHI) and under government employee retirement programs --is projected relative to the population aged 65 and over; these payments, per person aged 65 and over, are projected to be 84.0 percent of per capita personal income in both 1990 and 2000. All other transfer payments are projected to decline to 4.5 percent of earnings in 1990 and to 4.3 percent in 2000.

Employment and earnings by industry. --National projections of employment by industry are mainly from BLS. Adjustments are made to reflect the projections of total employment (discussed above) and more recent historical data. Projections of earnings by industry are made primarily by projecting the ratios of earnings to employment and applying these ratios to employment by industry.

State projections

The State projections are prepared using the following procedure. First, employment and earnings by industry are projected using models of economic relationships within each State and between each State and the Nation. Then, population is projected to be consistent with projected total employment. Finally, the nonearnings components of TPI are projected to be consistent with projected total earnings and population, and then are added to total earnings to yield projected TPI.

Each part of the State projections procedure has two phases. In the first phase, preliminary projections are generated based on mathematical relationships among variables. In the second phase, the preliminary projections are reviewed and, when necessary, are modified to reflect State-specific economic trends and events that are not easily reflected in mathematical relationships.

Employment and earnings by industry. --Preliminary projections of State employment by industry are made using a mathematical model of economic growth. In each State, growth of employment in each industry is projected based on (1) projected growth of total employment in the industry nationally (discussed earlier) and (2) projections of the ratio of total employment in the industry in the State to the employment required to meet intrastate demand for the industry's products. The ratio is assumed to reflect the State's competitive position in the industry; if the ratio exceeds (is less than) unity, the State is assumed to have a competitive advantage (disadvantage) in the industry, relative to other States.

Estimation of the ratios requires extensive data on interindustry patterns of sales and purchases in each State. These data generally are unavailable; accordingly, national relationships-- based on unpublished BLS input-output data--are used to estimate the ratios for each industry in each State, 1969-83. Growth rates of the ratios then are estimated using ordinary least-squares regression techniques. The resulting growth rates, somewhat dampened, are used to project the ratios to 2000. Projections of national employment by industry and national input-output relationships, along with the projected ratios, then are used to project employment by industry in each State, 1984-2000.

Preliminary projections of State earnings by industry are made as follows: (1) The historical trend in State earnings per employee in an industry is projected as a percent of national earnings per employee in the corresponding industry, (2) this measure is multiplied by national earnings per employee in the industry--already projected--to yield projected State earnings per employee in the industry, and (3) this product is multiplied by projected State employment in the industry to yield projected State earnings in the industry.

The preliminary projections of State employment and earnings by industry are reviewed and, when necessary, are modified within a "basic-service' framework. In a basic-service framework, each of a State's industries is classified as basic or service. Basic industries are those that produce products that are generally exportable. The composition of a State's basic industries depends primarily on the State's relative endowment of the inputs required in the production process. The relative endowment of these inputs determines the State's relative advantage, compared with other States, in producing the output of its basic industries. States export products for which they have a relative advantage in production and import other products. In general, farming, mining, manufacturing, the Federal military, and railroad, pipeline, and water transportation are classified as basic industries in all States because the bulk of their output is directed at broad, often national, markets. Certain services, such as hotels in Nevada, also are treated as basic industries in some States because more of their employment and earnings derives from consumers from other States than from local businesses and households.

A State's service industries derive employment and earnings mainly from purchases by businesses and households within the State. In general, construction, certain modes of transportation, communication, public utilities, trade, finance, insurance, real estate, business and professional services, and civilian government are classified as service industries in most States.

A State's total growth mainly depends on the stimulus provided by its basic industries. The basic industries grow in response to increases in the demand for their output by other States. Increased exports generate additional employment and earnings, which stimulate service-industry growth in the exporting State.

Use of a basic-service framework to modify the preliminary State projections of employment (earnings) by industry requires the following data: (1) National projections (from the national step of the projection methodology) of employment (earnings) by industry, (2) the classification of each of a State's industries as basic or service, (3) for each basic industry in each State, preliminary projections of the State's share of employment (earnings) in the corresponding industry nationally, and (4) for each service industry in each State, preliminary projections of the industry's location quotient (LQ), that is, the ratio of the industry's share of State total employment (earnings) to the industry's share of national total employment (earnings).

With these data, State employment (earnings) by industry can be projected in a basic-service framework. (The basic-service projections will differ from the preliminary projections when data items 3 and 4 require modification; conditions under which modification is necessary are discussed later.) The equations that follow summarize the basic-service projection framework. In the equations, E(ij) is employment (earnings) in industry i in State j, E.(j) is total employment (earnings) in State j, E(i). is total employment (earnings) in industry i in the Nation, and E.. is total employment (earnings) in the Nation. Given the national projections (data item 1) and the projected basic-industry shares (data item 3 above, hereafter denoted as S(ij)), E(ij)--employment (earnings) in a State--for each basic industry can be computed directly as:

(1) E(ij) = S(ij) E(i).

Total State employment (earnings)-- the sum of basic- and service-industry employment (earnings)--can be expressed as:

(2) E.(j) = E(ij) E(ij)

i=basics i=services

The first term on the right of equation (2)--total basic-industry employment (earnings) in a State--can be obtained directly from the results of equation (1). The second term--total service-industry employment (earnings) in a State--can be obtained indirectly, by using the definition of the service-industry LQ (data item 4 above) to derive, for each service industry:

(3) E(ij)=E.(j)(E(i)./E..)LQ(ij)

Denoting total basic-industry employment (earnings) as B.(j), and incorporating equation (3) in equation (2), yields:

(4) E.(j)=B.(j) E.(j) (E(i)./E..)LQ(ij)

i=services

Inasmuch as the LQ's and the national totals are given, the sum in equation (4) can be computed. Denoting this sum as M.(j), the solution of equation (4) for E.(j) yields:

(5) E.(j) = B.(j)/1-M.(j)

To complete the solution of the system of equations, employment (earnings) for individual service industries can be computed directly from equation (3), based on the solution for the State's total employment (earnings) from equation (5).

In each State, each basic-industry share, derived from the preliminary projections, is modified, when necessary, to reflect the assumption that factors that affected the share historically will continue to affect it in the future, but less strongly, so that in all cases the projected rate of change in share decelerates. This assumption ensures that no industry in a State will be projected to have an unreasonably large or small share of national employment (earnings) in the industry; that is, equilibrating forces at work in the State economies will tend in the long run to reduce State-to-State differences in growth rates for an industry. In some cases, the projected share is further modified to take into account economic developments that are not yet reflected in the historical data.

In each State, each service-industry LQ, derived from the preliminary projections, is modified, when necessary, to ensure that historical trends are properly reflected. In most cases, continuation of the historical trend results in the convergence of the projected LQ toward unity. However, if the LQ is diverging from unity historically, the historical trend is dampened or reversed in the projection period. In no case is a projected service-industry LQ permitted to change from a value more than unity to a value substantially less than unity, or vice versa. As with basic-industry shares, the projected service-industry LQ's are modified to take into account economic developments that are not yet reflected in the historical data.

The review and adjustment phase of the procedure for projecting State employment and earnings by industry is lengthy. Following adjustments to ensure consistency with the general criteria noted above, the basic-service projections are reviewed to ensure consistency in both the projected industrial distribution of each State's economy and the projected State distribution of each of the Nation's industries. The resulting projections then are provided to State government agencies for further review; BEA makes the projections final only after this review.

Population and personal income.-- State population projections are based on the assumption that interstate migration of the working-age population is mainly determined by economic opportunity; job-count employment is used as the indicator of economic opportunity. Population is projected for three major groups: labor pool (ages 15-64), prelabor pool (ages 0-14), and postlabor pool (ages 65 and over).

In each State, the labor pool population is projected as follows: (1) The historical trend in the labor pool population/ employment ratio in the State is projected as a percent of the corresponding ratio in the Nation, (2) this measure is multiplied by the labor pool population/employment ratio in the Nation--already projected --to yield the projected labor pool population/employment ratio in the State, and (3) this product is multiplied by State employment--already projected--to yield the labor pool population in the State.

The prelabor pool population is projected based on the population projection for the parent age group (that is, the labor pool population). The postlabor pool population is projected based on each State's historical pattern of inmigration or outmigration for this age group.

In general, the nonearnings components of TPI for each State are based on State projections of total earnings and population, within the framework of the national projections for the nonearnings components. Projected TPI is the sum of the projected earnings and nonearnings components.

Table: 1.--Average Annual Growth Rate in Selected Aggregates, 1973-1983 and 1983-2000, United States and Regions

Table: 2.--Total Personal Income and Population, Selected Years, 1973-2000, United States, Regions, and States

Table: 3.--Per Capita Personal Income, Selected Years, 1973-2000, United States, Regions, and States

Table: 4.--Earnings and Employment, Selected Years, 1973-2000, United States, Regions, and States

Photo: CHART 8 Average Annual Growth Rate in Earnings, by Industry, 1973-1983 and 1983-2000, United States

Photo: CHART 9 Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of the U.S. Average, Selected Years, 1929-2000, BEA Regions

Photo: CHART 10 Average Annual Growth Rate in Total Personal Income, 1983-2000