Estimate of the economy impact of electricity rationing to the Argentine productive sector during 2007.
Fernandez, Rodrigo A. ; Muguerza, Maria E. ; Muguerza, Daniel 等
1--INTRODUCTION
The implementation of a sectorial economy measure, e.g. the
decision of applying an outline of energy rationing, needs a solid
theoretical foundation, as well as an appropriate prospective analysis
of the possible consequences in the economy system.
During 2007, the government has implemented an outline of
electricity power rationing, limiting the consumption for productive
uses, for a period of more than two months. In the paper, we have tried
to carry out a first approach to estimate the impact that this
electricity power rationing, has had on the Argentine GDP.
In the rest of the introduction some theoretical concepts are
developed regarding the problem associated to energy rationing and of
the importance of the appropriate estimate of its impact for the economy
and in particular for the electricity sector. In section 2 the utilized
methodology is described for the estimate of the economy impact, as well
as the statistical information used in the model. In section 3 the
results are summed up and in section 4 the conclusions are detailed.
1.1. Consumption and Supply Not Within the Optimum
Since Argentina reinserted itself within the growth path, one can
observe between the media and the government a confrontation around an
imminent energy crisis for the first ones, and the problems of quick
growth for the latter.
Beyond the epithets, the characteristics of the electricity sector,
where the investments take as a minimum two to three years in maturing,
they determine the necessity to have tools to identify, in an early way,
the maladjustments in two subsystems with independent dynamic
characteristics: consumption and supply.
This independence of the subsystems implies that the growth speed
of demand and offer can be different. In this sense, if the offer grows
quicker than the demand, the costs are supported by the investors, in
terms of smaller remunerations for the capital invested. However, in the
other case, an increase of the vulnerability of the system takes place
that can be represented as an increment of the electricity prices, and
in the probability of having to ration a part of the demand; this
rationing is known as Energy Not Supplied (ENS).
In the face of the eventuality of a maladjustment between offer and
demand, in any market an adjustment of prices would take place to return
to the equilibrium, specially if there were a surplus demand, the price
would rise which would redound in a drop in demand, increase the offer,
where the variations would depend fundamentally on the respective
elasticity. Even when no market escapes this basic operation scheme, in
the case of electricity there exist other restrictions, derived, on one
hand, by the character imposed by the 1st Article of Law 24,065 that
establishes the regulatory framework of the sector:
1ST ARTICLE: To characterize itself as a public service to transport
and distribute electricity. The generation activity, in any of its
modalities, totally or partially destinated to supply with energy a
public service will be considered of general interest, affected to
said service and framed within the legal and regulation norms that
assure its normal functioning.
The public service character, has juridical type connotations, which
impact on the economy operation, one can mention MATA (1995):
"... for the doctrinal of the public service school, the activities
dedicated to satisfy general interest are substantially different,
due to their object, of private activities... The public services
theory, on one hand was oriented to protect the citizens'
rights" (2)
The author is clearer when he enunciates:
From the economy perspective regulation presupposes a critical
position facing the market, a prosecution in its form of
working and of the voluntary actions of its operators, which gives
place to a corrective policy of the so called market flaws" (3)
In this sense, one can mention for example, the stabilization
System per quarter, of the prices foreseen for the Market Spot,
dedicated to the purchase of the Distributors, which introduces delays
in the transmission of price signal.
On the other hand, technical matters, as those mentioned in
LASHERAS (1999):
"The energy that can be taken from the transmission net for
its consumption in a certain point and at a certain moment depends from
the one being generated, transported and consumed in the different nodes
of the net at that same moment. Any energy incorporation to the net, or
any consumption, affects the whole system and can alter the capacity to
inject generation or to satisfy the consumption of its different
points." (4)
To the aforementioned complexity of coordinating offer with demand,
one adds the impossibility of storing the electricity and its
instantaneity character, all which forces to establish mechanisms to
administer those situations in which the demand is superior to the
capacity of system response, given by the available and prepared
generating machines to enter into service (5), but also for the capacity
of transport and distribution as mentioned by LASHERAS (1999), in cases
of demand surplus the adjustment implies the interruption of the supply,
that is to say rationing.
1.2. Dependability Value of the Supply
Independently of the origin of the non-adaptation of the system,
rationing determines that a group of users cannot dispose of electric
energy for which they would be willing to pay.
If in the common markets the signal that determines the adaptation
of the offer and the demand is the price, in the case of the electricity
sector, one needs a reference parameter to supplement the traditional
signal.
This parameter is denominated Dependability Value, and it
constitutes the corner stone to establish the Cost of the Not Supplied
Energy (CENS). This is the value that is used to achieve the optimum
adjustment in the consumption subsystems and the supply of an
electricity system, and it affects the decisions of the agents in the
three segments (generation, transport and distribution) in which the
market was divided into by law 24,065, in the following way:
* Influencing in the cost assigned to the sending office of a
machine fails in the market wholesaler, (6)
* Conditioning the Golden Rule to determine the public convenience
of an amplification of transport, and, (7)
* Affecting the rebates that the distributors should reinstate to
the final user by default of quality in the supply. (8)
In this economy sign, the interests and necessities of two generic
types of users should be made compatible: the final consumption demands,
for example a residential user, and the demands of the productive
sphere, for example a aluminum producer company that needs a great
amount of energy in its production process, and to which the inopportune halts mean to it, a significant profit loss.
With all the difficulties that this supposes, the appropriate
determination of the value for the CENS is fundamental for the operation
of the Argentine electricity market. This work has as its main objective
to contribute to the discussion of this problem, focusing mainly in the
consequences that the interruption of the service, originated under
rationing conditions due to offer inadequacy, has in the productive
sphere of the Argentine consumption subsystem.
1.3. Rationing Administration
As was mentioned previously, rationing is reflected in an
electricity power deficit. This is Energy Not Supplied (ENS) it is
distributed in the system according to a series of procedures that come
from the extended regulatory framework of the sector.
One of the alternatives, for an outline of administration
rationing, consists on Programmed Cuts, which due to their character of
Management Plan, exclude the situations of inopportune cuts. The forms
of implementing the Programmed Cuts are the following ones:
* A geographical distribution of the rationing, in such a way that
all the users, without discriminating their type, are affected by the
supply interruption. This scheme was implemented in the Argentine energy
crisis at the end of the 80's, as well as in the 1998 Chilean
energy crisis.
* A distribution according to user type, in which certain types of
users are mainly interrupted, for example productive uses, in order to
protect residential uses.
Other alternatives are schemes for Demand Management or Energy
Saving Plans. In situations in which dynamic non-adaptation takes place,
in which the deficit is small regarding the total energy of the system,
saving schemes can be implemented that are sustained in a combination of
economy incentives (effectiveness of the price signal to attenuate the
demand), and of moral incentives (commitment or social conscience
regarding the necessity of the saving).
An example of the application of these measures based on the
implementation of a penalties scheme due to higher consumptions, and of
prizes for lower consumptions to a certain reference parameter,
supplemented by a mediatic campaign to develop the Rational Use of
Energy has been successful in Brazil at the end of the 90's, when
the country had to face a period of droughts that greatly reduced the
capacity of response of its electricity system. However, in the case of
present day Argentina, the implemented program is not giving the desired
results, meanwhile residential consumption continues growing at a high
rate.
1.4. Rationing Consequences
In the case of demand management, it is the users / consumers
themselves, which carry out the election, adapting their behavior in
function of the evaluation of the economy incentives to consume or to
non-consume, we could not speak of ENS. However to whom the supply is
interrupted, in inopportune form and due to the physical impossibility
of maintaining the continuity of the supply, when in fact they would be
willing to pay so that the service may not be interrupted, suffer a
series of effects which could be interpreted as costs, direct and
indirect, associated to the economy, social and organizational impacts.
In this sense, one can affirm that these costs, of re-organization,
will be different in function of the characteristics of user's
type, for example those derivates of supply interruption to residential
users, regarding those that the industrial users could incur in.
Literature identifies (9) the following characteristics of the impacts:
* The costs vary in function of the season of the year, and at the
time of day when the cut takes place. (10)
* Differences exist on the impact if there is or there is not,
prior notice. (11)
* The costs of the residential users tend to be lower than those of
the commercial and industrial users, even when they are normalized to
compensate the differences in the total consumptions. (12)
* The costs of the residential users tend to increase, more than
proportionally, in the measure that they are considered as longer cuts,
in other words the time average cost of an eight-hour interruption is
superior to the average cost of a two-hour interruption. (13)
* In contrast, the costs of the commercial and industrial users
tend to drop, with the duration of the cut in a higher proportion than
the lapse that the cut lasts, that is to say, the time average cost of a
four-hour cut, is less than the cost of a one-hour cut. (14)
For the realization of the present paper one adopted a focus based
on the identification of the consequences that the interruption of the
service, originated under rationing conditions due to inadequacy offer,
has in the subsystem productive sphere of consumption in Argentina,
using a macro--economy methodology that allows to obtain average results
for a given region or the domestic total, by means of the application of
the Input-Product Model.
2. Input-Product Model
In the Input-Product Model it is necessary to clarify that in the
writing of this point and in particular in the development of the
calculation methodology one follows FERNANDEZ & MUGUERZA (2007)
(15), it consists on the matrix representation of the economy of a
country, and it constitutes an acknowledged instrument in economy
planning. It is used to predict the effects which certain changes in the
final demand of goods and services (family, government, and exports
consumption), cause in the different sectors of the economy.
As enunciated by DI MARCO (1976), when this model is used for
planning objectives it constitutes an open model, and the following
procedure is applied:
a) In function of the projected economy growth rate, the components
of the final demand are determined, i.e., consumption, private and
public investment, variation of inventories, government consumption,
exports and investment for capital reinstatement.
b) Once the "projected" final demand of the economy is
determined, the production is obtained that each one of the sectors
should reach.
c) In a third stage the requirements of productive factors can be
determined (manpower, benefits, etc.) per unit of final demand."
(16)
This means that in the analysis, one considered that the Total
Production of each sector of the economy is sold in the market, and that
this production will be bought for its final consumption (Final Demand),
or to be used in the process of production of some sector (17) as an
input (Intermediate Demand). The electricity power presents a clear
example to understand the above-mentioned, on one hand a kWh can be
consumed by a family in form of lighting during the night, or it can be
used to drive a watering pump for the production of cereals, which will
later enter as an input of another productive sector.
The interaction among all the economy sectors and the assignment of
the production of each one to the categories of intermediate goods or
final consumption goods is captured as from the monetary flows that
represent the purchases of all the goods and services of the economy.
In this paper, the data will be taken from the INDEC's 1997
Input-Product Argentine Matrix, in which 124 activity sectors (18) are
defined and macroeconomic simulations will be carried out by the
Coefficients of Direct and Indirect Requirements of Production Matrix.
It must be highlighted that the use of the MIPAr 97 supposes a
disadvantage that conditions the results of this paper, since ten years
have lapsed since the last estimate of the Argentine matrix.
In that period the country has suffered a recession that lasted 4
years, ending up in an economy crisis toward the end of 2001 which
resulted in a fall of the 2002 GDP of more than 22% regarding its level
in the previous year (19) in that year the total Fixed Gross Domestic
Investment, represented only 51% of the average for the 1993-1998
period, and the investment in Durable Equipment of 40% of the average
for the same period.
On the other hand, after getting out of the crisis, a new economy
model has been implemented in Argentina, with a significant change in
relative prices, which is producing a reassignment of resources
(investment) towards the new dynamic sectors of the economy, and all
these changes would imply modifications in the production coefficients
which the focus assumes as fixed. Anyway, the results obtained by this
method always constitute a good reference to compare the values obtained
by other methods, and in this resides the main contribution of this
paper.
2.1. Rationing in the model I-P
The analysis based on the Main Input-Product Matrix is frequently
used in economy studies or of global planning. In the specific case of
the Electricity Sector, the method can be apply to answer questions such
as: How much electricity would be necessary if one wished to increase
the aluminum production sector in 50%?, how much would the total
electric power consumption increase if one motivates watering in the
Agricultural Sector?
In the case of queries referred to interruptions in the supply of
energy, the method presents a limit as long as it does not contemplate
the re-calibration and restart costs of the production teams, reason why
it cannot be applied to the brief interruptions, when the derivative
costs of the discarded production, as those that originate in the
restart process, are proportionally more significant than the lost
production values. In this sense, the Main Input -Product Matrix, will
only allow to estimate the impacts of long inopportune interruptions, or
of those derived rationing programs.
On the other hand, as pointed out in CHIANG (1987), the Final
Demand in the input-product model is considered exogenous and conditions
the necessary production, that is to say the Total Demand (20). In
particular, to understand the functional relationship proposed in the
model, it is convenient to remember that one is presupposing a
production Leontief technology, or of fixed production coefficients,
which means that to increase the production of an industrial sector, the
use of all the necessary inputs will increase automatically in the
proportions established by the matrix, that is to say, that they are not
allowed neither considered processes of substitution of inputs (21).
In the case of application of rationing evaluation, the model
allows to quantify the impact that an interruption which affects the
Final Demand of the Electricity Sector, has in the whole economy, which
one can obtain multiplying the inverse of Leontief's matrix, for a
vectorial rationing: in mathematical terms, [([I.sup.(n*n)] -
[A.sup.(n*n)]).sup.-1] [d.sup.(n*1).sub.rac] = [X.sup.(n*1)] (22) where
[d.sup.(n*1).sub.rac] is the vectorial rationing, in which the
components are all zero except the ones corresponding to the electricity
industry where it is completed with the equivalent monetary value to the
physical interruption of the supply. In this way it is supposed that the
final demands of the different sectors remain constant while the
electricity demand decreases in a certain proportion. Additionally, the
vector [d.sup.(n*1).sub.rac] can be interpreted as an energy saving
vector, to estimate the convenience of promoting plans of energy saving
in the residential uses, and the reassignment from those energy quotas
to the productive sector.
2.2. 2007 rationing in Argentina
During the 2007 winter, as there were exceptional days of extreme
cold, and starting off from a systematic growth of the electricity
demand, the government decided to implement a rationing program
focalized on the industrial users, preserving the supply of the
residential users.
When this paper was edited, we did not have official figures on
energy billing, or of energy not supplied during the validity of the
rationing program. To approach the total energy supplied to the
productive sector they considered as basic data the following elements,
published in two widely read domestic newspapers:
* The rationing period was a total of 69 days (23)
* During the first 54 days the productive sector was required to
reduce 1200 MW between the 4 PM and Midnight, then it was you
flexibilized to a reduction of 800 MW between the 6:00 PM and 10:00 PM.
(24)
* The existence of two rationing types is pointed out, one
described in the previous point called the OFFICIAL one, and a NON
OFFICIAL rationing that implied an additional reduction of 400 MW to
those declared by the government's departments. (25)
* Starting off from the information of the previous data one can
infer that the not supplied energy could have reached a theoretical
maximum between 566 GWh and 763 GWh, for the official and not official
rationing respectively. The calculation form is direct and it consists
on multiplying the power interrupted by the total of hours that the
outline of supply reduction would have lasted, with which the hypothesis
of maximum is estimated of the aforementioned not supplied energy.
2.3. Parameters used in the calculation
The quantification of the impact of the 2007 rationing was carried
out on the 2006 GDP values, and is established in terms of non produced
added value.
The data corresponding to the input-product matrix correspond to
the regrouping of the 124 activities of the MIPAr 97, in a more reduced
group of only 11 activities or industries (26) the values used are shown
in CHART No 1. This simplification does not produce loss of generality,
neither decrease in the precision of the estimate by the nature itself
of the algebra matrix that underlies in the model, at the same time it
allows to visualize the impact in a clearer way.
In the input-product matrix monetary values corresponding to each
concept are used, so to establish the physical magnitude of the
interruption, in energy units, Electricity Market specific information
was used. In accordance with the 2005 Electricity Sector Report, the
energy billing among all the users (Residential, Commercial, Industrial,
etc.) totaled 81096 GWh in the year, of which 23577 GWh corresponded to
Residential use, which represents 29% of the invoiced total, according
to the INDEC the electricity supply demand grew a 9.1% in 2006, so that
the total invoiced energy would have reached 88476 GWh, to which the
same proportion will be applied between demand for Residential uses. On
the other hand, the e 2006 electricity power offer of 104033 GWh (energy
generated plus net imports which would be similar to the invoiced energy
plus the losses) (27).
To discriminate the physical quantities corresponding to the
Electricity Final Demand, to those attributable to Electricity
Intermediate Demand to the first concept, the entirety of the energy
corresponding to Residential use will be assigned, the rest of the uses
identified in the Electricity Sector Report, will be assigned in block
to the second concept. Finally, the losses are distributed
proportionally between Final Demand and Intermediate Demand, according
to the energy invoiced.
3. Alternative Rationing hypothesis
Even when it is clear that the government's objective of
protecting the residential users from electric power supply
interruptions, relapsed on the productive sector, one would need to
establish which really were the sectors affected by the interruptions
for calculating the economy impact on them.
For this the following alternatives were analyzed:
* Hypothesis 1--Pondered Distribution of the interruption: This
scenario presupposes that the impact affects the growth rate of each
productive sector within the measure in which each sector contributes to
the growth of the GDP.
* Hypothesis 2--Interruption in the Manufacturing Sector: This
scenario presupposes that the rationing is applied entirely to the
Manufacturing Sector, and the rest of the sectors do not suffer
rationing
* Hypothesis 3--Interruption to the Residential Sector: In this
scenario the impact of applying an equivalent rationing to the
residential users, is established.
The rationing impact, for each considered hypothesis, measure in
terms of the 2006 GDP are shown in CHART No 2 and corresponds to the
scenario of OFFICIAL rationing.
If to the OFFICIAL rationing the so called NON OFFICIAL rationing
had been added, the impact in terms of not generated GDP would have been
of -1.20%, -0.90% and -03% for Hypothesis 1, Hypothesis 2 and Hypothesis
3 respectively.
4. SUMMATIONS
4.1. On Rationing Impact
In this paper different hypothesis have been proposed to quantify
the impact, that the energy rationing implemented by the Argentine
government has had on the 2007 GDP, characterized by centering itself on
the productive sector. Of the obtained values it is clear that to ration
the productive sector, that is to say to limit the intermediate demand
of energy, leads to reductions of the GDP much higher to the possible
impact of a rationing on the final demand. However, the strategy
followed by the government, of concentrating the rationing on the
manufacturing sector, is shown as a better strategy than its
distribution in the whole spectrum of productive sectors.
When this paper was edited there was no information regarding the
evolution of the GDP for 2007's third quarter, with which to
contrast the prediction of the model. However, the Industrial Monthly
Estimator (IME) that is used to measure the performance of the
manufacturing sector showed a deceleration in the annual growth rate
that from averages superior to 8% for 2005 and 2006, fell in July 2007
from 3.6% regarding July 2006. Even when the methodologies of the IME
and the estimate of the GDP are not comparable, the annual growth of the
GDP manufacturers showed consistent figures with those of the IME in the
previous years.
If one considers that the GDP manufacturer grew to average values
of 8% annually and that the model estimates a drop of between 3.7% and
5% as an impact of the denominated OFFICIAL and NON OFFICIAL rationings,
the values shown by the IME would be consistent with the prediction of
the impact carried out by the model.
4.2. Elements for future discussions
It fit to highlight that during the months of August and September
2007, the IME has shown a very quick recovery, with high monthly growth
rates that placed the industrial development in the habitual annual
growth averages in 2005 and 2006. A possible explanation for this
situation would be the process of inter-temporary substitution that
means to diminish the production in the rationing months and to recover
the lost ground in the subsequent months.
To conclude, and independent of the general consistency between the
estimates and the evolution of the statistical series, it is convenient
to point out that the economy would have begun the recovery during the
month of August, during which rationing plan was still effective.
This apparent discrepancy would reflect the defensive behavior of
the manufacturing companies, starting off from the substitution process
among electricity power networks, for other provisioning outlines (for
example self-production), phenomenon which is not contemplated by the
methodology of the input product matrix which presupposes the
substitution impossibility when considering an outline of fixed
coefficients.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Pleace refer to article's spanish bibliography.
(2) MATA, I. (1995), "Nocion Actual del Servicio
Publico", Jornadas Juridicas sobre Servicio Publico de
Electricidad, Buenos Aires, 8th and y 9th June 1995, Argentina. Ente
Nacional Regulador de la Electricidad. Pagina 19.
(3) MATA (1995), Op. Cit., Page 23.
(4) LASHERAS, M. A., (1999), "La Regulacion Economica de los
Servicios Publicos", Ariel Economia, Barcelona, Espana. Pagina 254
y 255.
(5) On this matter, in Annex 35 of " Procedimientos para la
Programacion de la Operacion el Despacho de Cargas y el Calculo de
Precios" it is specified that: "The perturbations due to an
unexpected deficit or failures in the transmission net, cause a sudden
non equilibrium between the offer and demand of electricity which causes
a drop in frequency, and a risk in the loss of synchronism in the whole
Argentine Interconnection System (SADI) or in a special area. To restore
the equilibrium between offer and demand and avoid system collapse it is
necessary to have an instantaneous reserve thru the automatic
disconnection of loads, by means of overload relays."
(6) Within the electricity Market, the maximum quantity, of Power
that the system can offer, comes from the number of generators and from
the transmission restrictions, factors which determine the Power price
due to the marginal costs declared by the generators. The regulation
establishes the concept of Machinery Failure, which allows to determine
the Power price when the demand is higher than the offer; in the extreme
case the value of the Power assigned to the last failure, is the Cost of
the non Provided Power or Failure Cost.
(7) As Electricity Transport is a public service, so defined by
Article 1 of Law 24065, investments should be approved by the "Ente
Regulador de la Electricidad" (Electricity Regulating Entity). The
general criteria used to determine the Convenience and Necessity of
amplifying the transport, has as its objective to consider the social
efficiency of the investment to be carried out, this mechanism is called
the Golden Rule, which can be understood as the maximization of the net
maximum aggregate benefit, of all costs (including those derived from
non provided Power, as the amplification of transport capacity allows to
diminish system Failure probability.
(8) In Argentine regulations, a Public Services Quality Norm scheme
was adopted, which foresees sanctions on the Distributer in the cases in
which the desired quality objective is not reached, i.e. a maximum
number of cuts of more than 3 minutes. In such a case, the Distributer
should reimburse an amount proportional to the time in which the service
was interrupted, during the whole semester. When determining the values
to be reimbursed to the affected users, the Failure Cost intervenes.
(9) To revise the International Literature one can consult: REVIS
J., (2001), "Scoping Study on Trends in the Economic Value of
Electricity Reliability to the U.S. Economy", LBNL-47911, Palo Alto C.A. (June 2001). EPRI. For a revision on Argentine literature one can
consult: MUGUERZA, D.; KERSZBERG, E.; FERNANDEZ, R.; (2003), "Valor de la Confiabilidad en el Sistema Electrico - La Discusion Metodologica
para su Determinacion" (2003), CEARE - UBA.
(10) GILMER, R. W. & R. S. MACK. 1983. "The Cost of
Residential Power Outages." The Power Journal. 4:55-74.
(11) SULLIVAN, M. J., B. N. SUDDETH, T. VARDELL & A. VOJDANI.
1996. "Interruption Costs, Customer Satisfaction and Expectations
for Service Reliability." IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.
11(2):989.
(12) REVIS (2001).
(13) LEHTONEN, M. & B. LEMSTROM. 1995. "Comparison of the
Methods for Assessing the Customers' Outage Costs." VTT Energy. TOLLEFSON, G., R. BILLINTON & G. WACKER. 1991.
"Comprehensive Bibliography on Reliability Worth and Electrical
Service Consumer Interruption Costs: 1980-1990." IEEE Transactions
of Power Systems. 6(4):1508-1514.
(14) SULLIVAN, M. J., T. VARDELL & M. JOHNSON. (1997).
"Power Interruption Costs to Industrial and Commercial Consumers of
Electricity." IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications.
33(6):1448-1458.
(15) In said work, the methodology for the use of the Matrix Input
Product is more precisely detailed, in matters related to the
determination of Trustworthiness value.
(16) DI MARCO (1976), Op. Cit., Pagina 80. The words in italics are
the author's own words.
(17) This situation does not exclude the sales to an industrial
sector, the same industrial sector (Own Consumption), for its use as an
input.
(18) The activity sectors are the industries in the terminology
used previously.
(19) The drop accumulated during the whole period, 1998-2002,
considering the highest and lowest, within the GDP, was above the 27%.
(20) The functioning of the Input-Product Matrix, can be seen in
CHIANG (1987), Page: 120 to 129.
(21) The characteristics mentioned, as the inputs fixed relation,
are related to the simplifying hypothesis in which the mentioned model
is based on, mentioned by CHIANG (1987), Page 121.
(22) The notation used, is conventional in the matrix models
[I.sup.(n*n)] it is the matrix identity to the umpteenth value
[A.sup.(n*n)] it is the matrix with the inputs coefficients, the
difference between said matrixes is called technological matrix, which
multiplied by [X.sup.(n*1) which is the intermediate demand vector to
satisfy the final demand [d.sup.(n*1). Applying matrix algebra, one can
clear the final demand vector, for which it is necessary to
post-multiply the inverse of the technological matrix by the
intermediate demand vector. For more details see CHIANG (1987). The
specific application to this case can be seen in FERNANDEZ &
MUGUERZA (2007) where the same notation is used, and the components of
each matrix are detailed.
(23) "Terminaron los cortes de luz a empresas",
(Enterprise Light cuts, are over.) Published in La Nacion On Line, on
27th August 2007: Short Link:_http://www.lanacion.com.ar/938306 ".
(24) "Empezaron a reducirse los cortes diarios de electricidad
a las empresas", (Enterprise Light cuts have begun to be reduced)
Published in La Nacion On Line, on 14th August 2007: Short Link:
_http://www.lanacion.com.ar/934375_. Also in "A partir de hoy
reducen los cortes de electricidad a las industrias", (as from
today Enterprise Light cuts have been reduced) Published in Digital
Clarin, on 13th August 2007: Short Link:
http://www.clarin.com/diario/2007/08/13/elpais/p-01401.htm"
(25) "Terminaron los cortes de luz a empresas",
(Enterprise Light cuts, are over.) La Nacion On Line. Op. Cit.
(26) The Electricity Sector belongs to Activity No 93 in the
matrix. According to the MIPAr-97 methodological annexes of this
activity, it is the generation, reception, transport and distribution of
electric energy. The separation of this sector is carried out due to the
convenience of the time to carry out the rationing.
<http://www.clarin.com/diario/2007/08/13/elpais/p-01401.htm>
(27) In this paper we do not distinguish efficient losses, black
losses due to energy robbery, and losses are considered as a whole,
which constitutes a characteristic due to the electric system
<http://www.clarin.com/diario/2007/08/13/elpais/p-01401.htm>
Fernandez, Rodrigo A. / Muguerza, Maria E. / Muguerza, Daniel
Universidad Nacional de Misiones
Centro de Estudios de Energia para el Desarrollo (CEED) (1)
Ruta Nacional No 12, Km 7 1/2, (C.P. 3304), Miguel Lanus, Misiones,
Argentina
E-mail: rafernandez@fce.unam.edu.ar
E-mail: dmuguerza@campus.unam.edu.ar
E-mail: muguerza@fce.unam.edu.ar
(1) This work is registered within the framework of a Research on
Trust Worthiness of the Electricity System developed in the Power Study
Center for Development (CEED). Opininions expressed here belong only to
the authors, and not to the CEED.
CHART No 1
In millions of 1993 pesos INTERMEDIAT FINAL TOTAL
E DEMAND DEMAN DEMAND
D
A. and B. AGRICULTURE, CATTLE 19,261 17,761 37,227
RAISING, HUNTING, FORESTRY AND
FISHING
C. MINING 6,703 5,219 11,981
D. MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 5 60,123 54,97 115,739
E. ELECTRICITY SUPPLY 6,401 4,187 10,634
E. GAS AND WATER SUPPLY 1,518 4,836 6,369
F. CONSTRUCTION 3,648 20,751 24,428
G. AND H TRADE WHOLESALERS AND 11,939 49,666 61,733
RETAILERS - HOTELS AND
RESTAURANTS
I. TRANSPORTS AND STORAGE MAIL 18,121 33,049 51,342
AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS
J AND K. FINANCIAL INTERMEDIA- 36,708 55,299 92,352
TION REAL ESTATE ACTIVITIES
L M N PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND 4,074 41,310 45,411
DEFENSE - EDUCATION - HEALTH
O AND P OTHER COMMUNITY SERVICE 8,125 18,854 27,046
ACTIVITIES
TOTAL 176,622 305,906 484,262
SOURCE: Own Elaboration with Data from MIPAr 97 - INDEC
CHART No 2
In millions of 1993 pesos Hypothesis Hypothesis Hypothesis
1 2 3
A. and B. AGRICULTURE, -40 0 0
CATTLE RAISING, HUNTING,
FORESTRY AND FISHING
C. MINING -1 0 0
D. MANUFACTURING -836 -2053 0
INDUSTRIES 5
E. ELECTRICITY SUPPLY -3 0 -79
E. GAS AND WATER SUPPLY -4 0 0
F. CONSTRUCTION -229 0 0
G AND H TRADE WHOLESALERS -642 0 0
AND RETAILERS - HOTELS
AND RESTAURANTS
I. TRANSPORTS AND STORAGE -322 0 0
MAIL AND TELECOMMUNI-
CATIONS
J. AND K. FINANCIAL -416 0 0
INTERMEDIATION REAL
ESTATE ACTIVITIES
L. M. N. PUBLIC -153 0 0
ADMINISTRATION AND
DEFENSE - EDUCATION -
HEALTH
O. AND P. OTHER COMMUNITY -71 0 0
SERVICE ACTIVITIES
TOTAL -2717 -2053 -79
Impact on the GDP Growth -.89% -.68% -.03%
SOURCE: Own Elaboration with Data from MIPAr 97 - INDEC
