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  • 标题:130/30 investment strategies: hedging in a classroom setting.
  • 作者:Taylor, James J.
  • 期刊名称:Journal of International Business Research
  • 印刷版ISSN:1544-0222
  • 出版年度:2009
  • 期号:September
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:The DreamCatchers Group, LLC
  • 摘要:The typical investor buys and sells individual investment positions with the expectation of buying into a position "low" and then later selling the position "high." This approach to investing is called buying and selling "long." The investor purchases a stock or bond anticipating something will cause the investment to increase in value. Sales at a company could be increasing faster than expected. New and better company managers may have been brought on board. Interest rates in the economy could go up--or down. Many reasons can account for an investment to change in value.
  • 关键词:Hedging (Finance);Leverage;Leverage (Finance);Teaching;Treasury bills;Treasury securities

130/30 investment strategies: hedging in a classroom setting.


Taylor, James J.


INTRODUCTION

The typical investor buys and sells individual investment positions with the expectation of buying into a position "low" and then later selling the position "high." This approach to investing is called buying and selling "long." The investor purchases a stock or bond anticipating something will cause the investment to increase in value. Sales at a company could be increasing faster than expected. New and better company managers may have been brought on board. Interest rates in the economy could go up--or down. Many reasons can account for an investment to change in value.

The investor who thinks "long" is looking to get a positive return on each individual investment. With experience, such investors recognize that not every investment chosen will go up in value. Such investors go "long" with the expectation that enough right decisions will ensure overall positive returns. To deal with the risk of something unexpected happening, "long" investors will diversify their investment portfolio by buying several kinds of investments, such as stocks and bonds, and by buying investments from a variety of business types such as consumer goods, consumer durables, and consumer finance.

The hedge fund investor approaches investing differently. Instead of buying at one time and selling at another, the hedge fund investor will carry out two related investment actions at the same time. Here the expectation is that the investor will be buying one investment and selling another related investment in such a way the two investments counterbalance each other (Markese, 2006; Reichenstein, 2004). This becomes a different way of dealing with risk. The "long" investor diversifies a portfolio to deal with risk. The expectation is that the same negative outcome will not affect a whole diversified collection of stocks and bonds. The hedge fund investor deals with risk by acquiring two related investments at the same time. This is done in such a way that if the first investment goes down in value, the second investment will go up in value. The opposite also intended. If the second investment goes down in value, the first investment will go up in value. On the surface at least, it seems that some form of hedging must be the perfect investment strategy.

INVESTMENT TOOLS USED IN HEDGES

Many different investment tools can be used to help build a hedge even though the use of any particular tool does not automatically create a hedge. The tools are described here to prepare the reader to understand some basic hedge situations.

The first tool that can help build a hedge is the use of "margin." "Long" investors put up their own money to buy stocks and bonds and create their own portfolio. An investor with $100,000 that is available for investment and using her/his own money can only purchase $100,000 of stocks and bonds. However to have more to invest, an investor can borrow additional money from a broker. The current rule is that ordinary investors, you and I, can borrow up to 50% of the total cost of an investment. That means that an investor with $100,000 can purchase up to $200,000 of stocks and bonds. When the investments purchased on margin go up in value, the investor's return is significantly increased. At the same time when the investments purchased on margin go down in value, not only will the use of borrowed funds significantly decrease the investor's return, the investor will be subject to a margin call as the amount of the loan from the broker is adjusted to the now reduced value of the investment (Gannon, 2005). In the "With Margin" column of Table 1, the loss of 25% of investment value means the investor has to come up with an additional $25,000 because the broker can only loan 50% of the reduced value of the investment.

The use of margin not only has a significant impact on investment return; it also increases the cost of investing as the broker will charge interest on the loan. Still, despite the negatives, when there are ways for reducing the effect of a downturn in investment value, the use of margin would be an attractive option (Little, 2009; "What does," 2009).

The next tool that can be used in hedge fund investing is the "short sale." In a "short sale, an investor borrows stock from someone else, typically a stock broker, and immediately sells the stock. At first it might seem strange to be selling a stock that you do not own but it makes sense. "Long" investors are buying stocks that they think will go up in value. What does an investor do who has become convinced that a company is poorly managed and will probably go down in value? The "short" sale is the answer. In a "short" sale, investors sell borrowed stocks they do not own, with the expectation that some time in the future, they will be able to buy back the stock at a cheaper price and return the borrowed shares to the broker. Of course brokers charge for the privilege of borrowing the shares and they keep track of the stock that has been borrowed. If the stock unexpectedly goes up in value, the broker will ask for the investor to put up more money in reserve. In this way a "short sale" is limited similar to the way the use of margin is limited.

A set of related investment tools that can be used to help create hedges, are the "puts" and "calls" used in option trading. A "put" is the purchase of the right to sell an investment at a specified exercise price on or before a specified expiration date. A "call" is the purchase of the right to buy an investment at a specific price on or before a specified expiration date. Rights do not have to be exercised. They represent only the option to exercise a right. The owner of a "put" or a "call" can either ignore the option or enforce the option depending on whether it is an advantage to do so. Options cost much less than the actual investment. A "put" can be used to protect against a possible fall in the price of an investment you already own. A "call" can be used to protect against a possible rise in the price of an investment you have already sold short. Buying puts and calls increases the cost of running a portfolio but under certain circumstances they can protect values in a portfolio.

A final set of tools used for hedging are the buying and selling of "futures." Originally future markets were associated with buying or selling the promise to deliver at a specific price on a specific date, a commodity like corn or wheat. Farmers used future markets to guarantee themselves a firm price on wheat that had not yet been harvested. Millers used future markets to guarantee a base price on wheat that had not yet been delivered.

A future transaction is called a "forward contract." Each forward contract has a buyer who makes the promise to receive certain goods at a specific price and date, and a seller who makes the promise to deliver the goods at that same price and date. Interestingly, at the time the promise is made, no money exchanges hands. Money, if it is to change hands at all, will change hands on the date delivery is made or when the contract is reversed. Unlike option contracts which do not have to be carried out, a forward contract has to close either with the reversal of the original contract or with delivery. Since the primary purpose of a future contract is to nail down an acceptable price to the buyer or the seller, the great majority of future contracts are reversed rather than delivered. Pricing differences between the current market price of the investment (called the spot price) and the price in the contract are dealt with at the reversal. Again since holding a future sale or purchase is cheaper than holding the underlying investment, such transactions can be used to protect against unwanted rises or falls in portfolio values. In the last few years the future markets have incorporated the buying and selling of many more kinds of investment futures. Now such markets are growing faster than existing markets in which stocks and bonds are sold.

These tools have been around almost since the development of the first stock markets. However it is important to recognize that the use of any of these tools does not automatically turn an investment into a hedge. A hedge is created when an investment manager carries out two counterbalancing actions at the same time. One of the simplest hedges is the use of arbitrage or the "convergence" hedge. Suppose an investor knows that the same security is sold in two different markets. Suppose further that the investor finds out that the security is priced at $20.00 a unit in the first market and at 19.90 a unit in the second market. The investor could sell short a large number of units of the security on the first market and buy a large number of units of the security on the second market, making a profit on the small difference in the price in each market. The investor would have to act quickly. The short sale of the security on the first market will indicate increased supply causing the price of the security to go down. The purchase of the same security on the second market will indicate increased demand causing the price of the security to go up. In addition other investors would be trying to earn a profit the same way. Convergence of prices on the two markets will happen very quickly.

With the advent of high speed computers and online connections, such simple convergence hedges can rarely be carried out by individuals any more. Software programs identify small pricing differentials between markets and take advantage of them almost instantly. The example also illustrates that most hedges are carried out at small pricing differences. This means the profit potential in any hedge is small unless large amounts of money are involved or the trader can increase leverage by being allowed a large margin. Whereas a regular investor can only purchase stocks with a margin of 50%, commodity and future margin accounts have been set up with margin rates of 5 to 15%. An investor with $100,000 can set up a 10% margin account that will allow the investor to purchase a million dollars in futures, providing a significant increase in profit potential. For example a ten percent gain on $1,000,000 will provide a 100% gain on an original investment of $100,000.

The basic components of a hedge situation are now identified.

1. In a hedge an investor tries to exploit special knowledge about how two different investment situations may be related.

2. In a hedge, an investor structures both the purchase and the sale so that investment risk may be reduced.

3. With the reduction of risk, it makes sense for the investment manager to use a high level of margin or leverage to increase return.

While opportunities for such simple hedges are now rare, the existence of a large variety of different kinds of markets and investment situations means that there are many other kinds of hedges that have been developed. However such situations are no longer simple. They are instead dependent on far more complex financial relationships. The problem is that hedging has become so complex this author has found it difficult to explain such opportunities in an ordinary, comprehensive, upper division undergraduate investment course. The complexity of the subject matter makes it difficult to find useful examples of hedging.

THE TREASURY BILL FUTURES HEDGE

The first time this author introduced hedging in an undergraduate investment course, he used as the class example the hedging of Treasury Bill futures. This was a type of convergence hedge based on the fact that T-Bill futures were priced at a slightly greater discount from par than real T-Bills themselves (Lowenstein, 2000). This was true even though when each matured, it returned the exactly the same amount of money. One possible explanation would be that the market considered a T-Bill future to be slightly less liquid than a T-Bill. In a simplistic example of this financial situation, an investor would purchase a T-Bill future with a par value of $100,000 and at the same time borrow a real T-Bill with a par value of $100,000 from a broker and sell it short. Because a T-Bill future was considered to be slightly more risky and less liquid than a real T-Bill, the future would be sold at a slightly greater discount from par, providing a slightly higher effective interest return. See the example in Table 2 to follow the steps in the process. When both the T-Bill Future and the T-Bill matured, the investor would use the proceeds from the matured real T-Bill to pay for the T-Bill future. The net gain in the example was $121.78 which works out to about V2 of 1% interest. While that kind of return on $100,000 does not sound exciting to the average investor, the ability to increase return on T-Bills by that amount would be considered significant.. However because the amounts are very small, it requires a use of large amounts of margin to make the process economically viable.

The example includes neither the transaction costs nor the cost of borrowing the T-Bill from the broker. These would reduce any gain. However the central question is what underlying value is there in doing this? The quick answer is that the process nails down an additional profit of $121.78. Closer reflection however shows that a long investor, the investor who pays the full amount of the investment, can always invest in T-Bill futures at the higher discount and hold them to maturity. This also ensures the additional return of $121.78 with less complexity. On the surface it would appear that the investor using such a hedge would be creating additional investment steps that would add cost but would not increase return. To fully understand what's happening, the analyst must realize that to make a really effective return in such a situation, the investor has to create very large amounts of margin by using the cash from the short sales to increase the amount available to purchase T-Bill futures. The biggest source of risk when investing in fixed income securities like T-Bills, is the risk of interest rate changes in the market. In a naked or unhedged T-Bill future position using large amounts of margin, a decrease in the market interest rate before the bills have matured will cause the underlying value of the bills to increase. This will create a margin call. Since large amounts of money are in play, the call could be very large, perhaps greater than the highly leveraged investor could afford. See Table 3 for an example similar to Table 2, but incorporating an interest rate increase during the period. See Table 4 for another example similar to Table 2, but incorporating an interest rate decrease during the period.

The real reason then for the use of a short sale hedge in the situation described is to protect against large margin calls that are created by the use of great leverage during a time when interest rates change. How does the addition of a short sale hedge help protect the investor in such a situation? As long as the general relationship between the interest rate paid by T-Bills and the interest rate paid by T-Bill futures is similar, no matter whether interest rates go up or down, the investor will gain on the overall set of transactions. In addition the risk of this kind of hedge is limited by the fact that there will always be convergence in price when the T-Bill and the T-Bill future mature. Table 4 shows what happens when interest rates go down.

A thoughtful reader can see that understanding even a simple hedge can become very complex and challenging especially as margin and leverage are incorporated. Success with a simple hedge also often requires the use of more complex investment relationships. Despite the complexity, student interest in hedging has increased. For a while hedging was seen as the ideal way to make money from investing. With the failure of the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund and other hedge funds (Lowenstein, 2000) and the Madoff Ponzi scandal, this instructor has found that students have developed a kind of negative interest in hedge fund investing. However students still need the opportunity to understand the three basic elements of hedge fund investing: (1) a special knowledge about the relationship between two investment situations; (2) the use of simultaneous buy and sell transactions to reduce investment risk: (3) and the use of increased leverage through margin accounts. A fourth (4) instructional element is also valuable: learning how hedges can go bad.

THE 130/30 INVESTMENT STRATEGY

In a search for a simpler way of teaching students about the complex subject of hedging, the instructor studied the 130/30 investment strategy. An investor using a 130/30 investment strategy divides the stocks of interest into two groups. One group is of low quality stocks expected to fall in value. The other group is of high quality stocks that are expected to rise in value. Depending on the inclination and expertise of the investor, the choice of stocks for each group may be carried out by personal analysis or by going to places like Morningstar, the Motley Fool, or Yahoo Finance and choosing from lists of best and worst stocks found there. In the instructor's experience, most students use a combination of the two approaches. Then using a virtual stock market game, the student sells short an amount that represents 30% of the available investable funds and invests long 130% of investable funds.

In the example provided in Table 5, the investor starts with $100,000 of investable funds. Selling short $30,000 of low quality stocks, now gives the investor a total of $130,000 to invest. The investor takes that $130,000 and uses it to purchase $130,000 of high quality investments. When the investor is finished, $160,000 of investments are at risk. Stocks worth $30,000 are expected to go down in value and stocks worth $130,000 are expected to go up in value. Table 5 provides an example of such a 130/30 hedge approach.

There is no requirement that the investor using this kind of strategy keep the ratio at 130/30. A more conservative investor can use a 120/20 ratio. A more risk inclined investor can use a 140/40 or even a 150/50 ratio. What has happened is that the investor has added leverage to the portfolio and has simultaneously sold short one class of investments while buying another class of investments. Most importantly the investor is using his/her best knowledge about how low quality investments are expected to relate to high quality investments. Finally a 130/30 investor could easily cover any margin calls on the short sales. Because of the reasonable short sale amount, margin calls can be covered by limited sales of the high quality investments.

The 130/30 investor would seem to have almost all possible future situations covered. The expected as well as most desirable outcome is that the high quality investments go up in value and the low quality investments go down in value. In this instance the investor would profit from both the sale and buy transactions. The investor would also profit if the high quality investments go up in value and the low quality investments also go up in value. Here the investor would profit from the high quality investments and lose on the low quality investments. However since more money was invested in high quality investments, the investor would gain overall. Finally if both the high quality investments and the low quality investments went down in value, the investor would lose money on the part of the portfolio that favored high quality investments while gaining on the low quality investments. Overall the investor would lose less than with a purely long investment and overall, the portfolio would be well positioned for the next market recovery.

A review of Table 6, without using actual numbers, shows the generally expected outcomes from a 130/30 investment strategy. The first three situations work to the advantage of the investor. However the alert reader will realize that the fourth situation has not yet been discussed. In the fourth situation the value of the high quality investments goes down and the value of the low quality investments sold short goes up. While money would be lost, most investors would think that a situation where losses would happen on both sides of the hedge would be very rare. Further, a qualitative review of the expectations from the 130/30 investment strategy shows that overall gains are expected to outweigh overall losses.

To more fully illustrate the way a 130/30 strategy is designed, Table 7 presents the differences in gains and (losses) under differing market changes. Initially it may seem that there is little difference between the expected outcomes of a long only investment strategy and a 130/30 investment strategy. However the person entering the hedge is expecting that the relationship between the long investment and the short investment will remain similar. As long as the net probability of outcomes 1, 2, and 3 is more likely than outcome 4, the investor will come out ahead. The investor is not expecting that at the same time good stocks lose value and poor stocks lose value.

Students presented with a 130/30 investment strategy quickly understand the components and are able to construct a portfolio using that strategy. Students also recognize that it would even be all right if such a portfolio returned less than a S&P500 index portfolio if they can show that use of the strategy has reduced overall portfolio risk. The 130/30 investment strategy has proven to be a good way to introduce students to the three basic components of hedge fund investing--(1) the need for a special knowledge about the relationship between two investments, (2) the use of tools that allow creating related buy and sell transactions at the same time, and (3) the ability to use increased margin because the hedge has reduced risk.

The 130/30 investment strategy has also turned out to be an excellent way to introduce students to one other aspect of hedge fund investing. From 2004 to 2008, many 130/30 hedge funds were introduced. They quickly became very popular because the investment story was so compelling. Funds using a 130/30 strategy would increase return because (1) they offered a way for a portfolio manager to act on knowledge about poorly performing companies; (2) they allowed for overall risk reduction in a portfolio thorough counterbalancing two different classes of investments; and (3) given the anticipated risk reduction, they made possible an increased use of leverage. Unfortunately in the summer of 2007 and again in 2009, many 130/30 funds reported unexpected losses (Sakar, 2009; Wrighton, 2007). One explanation was that the fund managers may not have always carried out the 130/30 strategy well. Perhaps it was not so simple for an investment manager to just draw up a list of poor stocks and good stocks.

Closer analysis showed a deeper and possibly more systemic issue. Statistics tells us that one of the expected outcomes of a statistical grouping is reversion to the mean. Investments in T-Bill futures could be expected over time to have the return on T-Bill futures match the return on T-Bills. This would be true because the very structure of T-Bills was such that at the end of 90 or so days, the par value of the two investments would match to the penny. In this case reversion to the mean works to the advantage of the strategy.

The same reversion to mean can be true of a 130/30 investment strategy. However, in this case, reversion to mean works against those using the 130/30 investment strategy. In Table 6 the author glossed over the situation where at the same time the high quality investments lost value and the low quality investments gained value. Perhaps such phenomena can be expected more often when seen as a type of reversion to mean.

The choice of a set of high quality investments or low quality investments is complex. Some high quality investments and some low quality investments are fairly priced. These would not be expected to change much in value. Some high quality investments are overpriced and some low quality investments are underpriced. These would be expected to revert to the mean. Some high quality investments are underpriced and some low quality investments are overpriced. Both of these would move in the desired direction, maximizing return. The point is clear. Not only is hedging complex because it uses a set of complex investment tools such as short sales and puts and calls. It is also complex because, like all investing it requires the sustained application of a high degree of disciplined intelligence to micro and macro issues--something that those who advocate the theory of the random investment walk would say is not possible over the long term (Malkiel, 2007). The good news is that students, people who generally do not want to believe in random investment walks, at least learn from the 130/30 approach that no hedging strategy is entirely riskless.

REFERENCE

Gannon, J. (2005). Margin accounts: A double-edged sword. Journal of the American Association of Individual Investors. May 2005.

Little, K. Margin trading: Not for beginners. Retrieved February 5, 2009, from http://stocks.about.com/od/advancedtrading/a/Martrade010305.htm

Lowenstein, R. (2000). When genius failed: The rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House.

Malkiel, B. (2007). A random walk down Wall Street: The true tested strategy for successful investing. New York: W.W. Norton & Co.

Markese, J. (2006). Hedging your portfolio with mutual funds. Journal of the American Association of Individual Investors. June 2006.

Reichenstein, W. (2004). What are you really getting when you invest in a hedge fund? Journal of the American Association of Individual Investors. July 2004.

Sarkar, P. (2009, May 24). Investors abandon 130/30 strategies. Investment News. Retrieved 7/12/2009 from http:// www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090524/REG/305249980

What does margin mean? Retrieved February 5, 2009, from http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margin.asp

Wrighton, J. (2007). The long and short of 130/30. Institutional Investor, 15.

James J. Taylor, University of Guam
Table 1: The Impact of Margin on Return and Cash Flow

                                        No Margin

Amount Contributed by Investor           100,000
Limit on Amount Borrowed                    0
Total Amount Invested                    100,000
Value with 25% Gain                      125,000
Gain (Loss) on Contribution        25,000/100,000 = 25%
Value with 25% Loss                       75,000
Gain (Loss)                      (25,000)/100,000 = (25%)
Limit on Amount Borrowed                    0
Margin Call                                 0

                                       With Margin

Amount Contributed by Investor           100,000
Limit on Amount Borrowed                 100,000
Total Amount Invested                    100,000
Value with 25% Gain                      250,000
Gain (Loss) on Contribution        50,000/100,000 = 50%
Value with 25% Loss                      150,000
Gain (Loss)                      (50,000)/100,000 = (50%)
Limit on Amount Borrowed                  75,000
Margin Call                      100,000-75,000 = 25,000

All figures in the tables are in dollars ($).

Table 2: Hedging / Arbitrage of T-Bill Futures Interest rates
stay the same during the whole period

                                         Sell T-Bill   Buy T-Bill
                                            Short        Future

Amount received from short sale of one    98,765.43
borrowed T-Bill to be replaced in 90
days

Amount owed in 90 days                    (100,000)

Loss on Transaction in 90 days           (1,234.57)

Price of T-Bill future                                 (98,643.65)

Value of T-Bill future in 90 days                        100,000

Gain on transaction in 90 days                          1,356.35

Net Amount Gained                                        121.78

Effective annual interest rate              5.0%          5.5%

Annualized increase in return                             0.5%

When such transactions are carried out
on margin, very little cash is put up
and the percentage return increases
significantly

Table 3: Hedging / Arbitrage of T-Bill Futures: Interest rates go up
during the process

Note: when, interest rates go up. the value of the underlying
security goes down

                             Sell T-Bill             Buy T-Bill
                                Short                  Future

Amount received from          98,765.43
short sale of one
borrowed T-Bill to be
replaced in 90 days

Amount owed in 90 days        (100,000)

Loss on Transaction in        (1,234.57)
90 days

Price of T-Bill future                              (98,643.65)

Value of T-Bill future                                100,000
in 90 days

Gain on T-Bill future in                              1,356.35
90 days

Interest Rates Go Up in           --                     --
5 Days

Interim price of           Goes Down
replacement T-Bill

Interim price of T-Bill                       Goes down; however the
future                                        Investor still has to
                                              pay the price agreed
                                              upon when the T-Bill
                                              future was purchased.

Interim Gain (Loss) on     Gain               (Loss)
transaction

Possible Margin Call       No                 Yes

Possible defensive         Buy T-Bill at      Meet margin call,
actions                    interim price to   relying on par value
                           cover the short    convergence in 85 days.
                           sale, Use profit   If profits from covering
                           to meet margin     the short sale are not
                           call on T-Bill     adequate, the investor
                           futures.           will need to borrow
                                              additional funds.

The investor is
protected in this
instance because of the
interim gain on the sort
sale and the defensive
actions available. The
general relationship
between the T-Bill and
the T-Bill future
remains the same.

Table 4: Hedging / Arbitrage of T-Bill Futures: Interest rates go
down during the process

Note: when interest rates go down, the value of the underlying
security goes up

                             Sell T-Bill             Buy T-Bill
                                Short                  Future

Amount received from          98,765.43
short sale of one
borrowed T-Bill to be
replaced in 90 days

Amount owed in 90             (100,000)
days

Loss on Transaction          (1,234.57)
in 90 days

Price of T-Bill                                      (98,643.65)
future

Value of T-Bill                                        100,000
future in 90 days

Interest Rates Go                --                      --
Down in 5 Days

Interim price of        Goes up
replacement T-Bill

Interim Price of                                Goes up; however the
T-Bill Future                                   investor only has to
                                                pay the contractually
                                                agreed upon price
                                                when the T-Bill
                                                future was purchased.
                                                The investor can
                                                sell a T-Bill future
                                                at the interim price
                                                and use it to cover
                                                the purchase of the
                                                original T-Bill
                                                future. Any excess
                                                profit can be used to
                                                help meet the margin
                                                call.

Interim Gain (Loss)     (Loss)                  Gain
on Transaction

Possible Margin Call    Yes                     No

Possible defensive      Meet margin call,
actions                 relying on par value
                        convergence in 85
                        days. If profits from
                        selling the T-Bill
                        future at the
                        interim price are not
                        adequate, the
                        investor will need to
                        borrow additional
                        funds.

The investor is
protected in this
instance because of
the interim gain on
the purchase of the
T-Bill future and the
defensive actions
available. The
general relationship
between the T-Bill
and the T-Bill future
remains the same.

Table 5: Using The 130/30 investment strategy

                           Transaction   Investable      Balance
                                            Funds        at risk

Initial amount available
  for investment                           100,000          0
30% short sale of low
  quality investments        30,000        130,000       30,000
Purchase of high quality
  investments               (130,000)         0          160,000

Table 6: Expected Outcomes from a 130/30 investment strategy

                                          High Quality (HQ)
                                            Investments

Amount of Portfolio                           130,000
Percent of Total Portfolio                     81.25%
(1) Value of HQ goes up, LQ goes down            ++
(2) Value of HQ goes up, LQ goes up              ++
(3) Value of HQ goes down, LQ goes down          -
(4) Value of HQ goes down, LQ goes down          -

                                          Low Quality (LQ)
                                            Investments

Amount of Portfolio                            30,000
Percent of Total Portfolio                     18.75%
(1) Value of HQ goes up, LQ goes down            +
(2) Value of HQ goes up, LQ goes up              -
(3) Value of HQ goes down, LQ goes down          +
(4) Value of HQ goes down, LQ goes down          -

++ or + = the investment goes up in value.
-- = The investment goes down in value.

Table 7: Gains / (Losses) Under a Variety of Market Changes

                                          Long only      130/30
                                         Investment    Investment
                                          Strategy      Strategy

Capital Amount at Risk                     100,000       100,000
Additional Leverage                           0          60,000
1. Long goes up 5%, Short goes down 5%      5,000         8,000
2. Long goes up 5%, Short goes up 5%        5,000         5000
3. Long down 5%, Short down 5%             (5,000)       (5,000)
4. Long down 5%, Short up 5%               (5,000)       (8,000)

Note: The 130/30 investment strategy takes into account
the effect of gains / (losses) in both the long and short position.
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