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  • 标题:The interstate banking debate: a historical perspective.
  • 作者:Hendrickson, Jill M.
  • 期刊名称:Academy of Banking Studies Journal
  • 印刷版ISSN:1939-2230
  • 出版年度:2010
  • 期号:January
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:The DreamCatchers Group, LLC
  • 摘要:Today the commercial banking landscape in the United States is rather diverse as it is comprised of extremely large bank holding companies with established branches throughout the county, regional and mid-size banks also with established branch systems, and small community bankers who primarily service local markets. This has not always been the case. Rather, the historical banking landscape is one of thousands of small, unit banks. Students of U.S. bank history recognize that part of the reason for the proliferation of these small banks was the legal inability of most bankers to open both interstate and intrastate branches. Indeed, branch restrictions emerged soon after the birth of banking, in the late eighteenth century. Contrary to these restrictions, many economists, regulators, and bankers recognized very early in U.S. banking history that branching could add stability to the enterprise. Ultimately, it took well over two hundred years for the United States to allow banks to branch freely. During that two hundred plus year process, there were many attempts to get regulators and legislators to change branching laws. Who or what was behind efforts to reform branching restrictions? Why did so many efforts fail? What case was made to preserve the branching ban and what case was made to eliminate it? Is there evidence that one side had a better case than the other?
  • 关键词:Bank holding companies;Bank mergers;Bankers;Banking industry;Banking law;Banks (Finance);Commercial banks;Depressions;Economic depressions;Economic growth;Investments;Monopolies;Retail banking

The interstate banking debate: a historical perspective.


Hendrickson, Jill M.


INTRODUCTION

Today the commercial banking landscape in the United States is rather diverse as it is comprised of extremely large bank holding companies with established branches throughout the county, regional and mid-size banks also with established branch systems, and small community bankers who primarily service local markets. This has not always been the case. Rather, the historical banking landscape is one of thousands of small, unit banks. Students of U.S. bank history recognize that part of the reason for the proliferation of these small banks was the legal inability of most bankers to open both interstate and intrastate branches. Indeed, branch restrictions emerged soon after the birth of banking, in the late eighteenth century. Contrary to these restrictions, many economists, regulators, and bankers recognized very early in U.S. banking history that branching could add stability to the enterprise. Ultimately, it took well over two hundred years for the United States to allow banks to branch freely. During that two hundred plus year process, there were many attempts to get regulators and legislators to change branching laws. Who or what was behind efforts to reform branching restrictions? Why did so many efforts fail? What case was made to preserve the branching ban and what case was made to eliminate it? Is there evidence that one side had a better case than the other?

While these questions, and their answers, are perhaps of interest to the economic historian, they should also be of interest to contemporary policymakers. In light of the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the government's role in its resolution, there is intense interest on how policy and regulation towards financial institutions, including commercial banks, will be altered in an attempt to avoid a similar crisis in the future. It is not known if these discussions will include interstate banking specifically but they will certainly include proposals to limit acceptable bank activity. In this way, the contemporary policy discussions are sure to return to discussions had hundreds of years ago when regulation was enacted to keep banks from competing with one another and with other financial institutions. Another certainty is that bankers of all sorts and sizes will have an incentive to influence the outcome of the policy debates.

From this perspective, this research may be helpful to policymakers and economic historians alike because, to answer the questions above, it identifies and then empirically examines the commercial bankers' position on the branch banking issue throughout history. Though there are interested parties outside of banking, for example, non-financial businesses, the public, and regulators, to establish all positions is beyond the scope of this paper (see Kroszner and Strahan (1999) who consider the economic and political interest groups in relation to the deregulation of branch banking). Following this introduction, there are two main sections of this paper. First, this paper breaks the history of branch banking into four eras and attempts to establish evidence of the small and large banker position on the branching issue. Evidence of these positions comes from reading primary sources such as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, trade publications such as Bankers' Magazine and the American Bankers Association Journal, and government documents such as Congressional Quarterly. At the same time, this section of the paper also carefully documents market developments that certainly impacted the interest group positions in question. While this paper is not the first to address the history of branching in the United States, it is the first to document primary sources over the history of branching to establish interest group position. Almost all existing work takes as given the position of the small and large banker. This paper, in contrast, attempts to carefully document the positions from the beginning of the debate.

The second primary section of this paper attempts to empirically test the prominent interest group positions over the three eras for which data is available. Of interest is whether there is statistical evidence to support the soundness of one position or another and to determine if that evidence varied over the history of the debate. The empirical test finds evidence that both the small and large banker had statistically valid positions. More specifically, the analysis finds evidence that legitimizes the small bankers' fear of increased competition, while the large bankers' prediction that branching would enhance stability was also valid. To the author's knowledge, this is the first paper to examine these issues across the history of branching in the United States.

Since the beginning of commercial banking, the regulation of intrastate and interstate banking has attracted both critics and defenders. Interestingly, the arguments on both sides of the issue remained relatively consistent in the two hundred year debate. With time, some of the smaller points changed as the nation and banking changed. However, as this paper clearly illustrates, the earliest arguments for and against branch banking were still being voiced in the final debate in 1994.

Supporters of a branch system argue four fundamental points. First, they often argue that branch restrictions harm banks by limiting their ability to diversify (see, for example, Newfang (1901), Sprague (1903), Collins (1926), Wernette (1932), Jay (1933), White (1982), Wheelock (1992, 1995)). A unit bank is forced to extend loans and make investments in its immediate community that is frequently not too diverse. This means that an adverse development to the community could wipe out most of the bank's loans since its loan portfolio is the homogenous reflection of the community. The assumption behind this argument both in theory and in practice is that banking markets are highly segmented. Bodenhorn (2003) provides several examples of banks during the antebellum era diversifying their portfolios by lending or investing beyond local markets. While this particular argument was leveled against branching restrictions up until the 1994 repeal, the homogeneity of community life was particularly acute during the antebellum and national bank eras. Branching restrictions also make a bank vulnerable on the liability side of its balance sheet. Like the assets, the liabilities of a unit bank cannot be too diversified which, in turn, magnifies the possibility of runs and gives banks a more narrow base from which to draw deposits.

Second, branch proponents argue that the branch restrictions, in our early history, kept banks from meeting the public's demand for depository services and constrained banks' ability to meet the financing needs of larger non-financial firms (see, for example, Newfang (1901), Sprague (1903), White (1982), Giedeman (2005), Preston (1924)). As the economy grew westward many communities were too small to support a national bank or even their own state bank but they needed banking services nonetheless. At the same time, growth in the non-financial sector resulted in larger and larger firms, most of whom required external financing. The contention is that commercial banks were too small, because of branch restrictions, to adequately provide large firm financing.

Third, those favoring a system of branches argue it would increase the competitive environment in banking and lead to lower priced loans and higher priced deposits to the benefit of the consumer. Branching would have the immediate effect of increasing competition as branch units compete with existing banks (Carlson and Mitchener (2006)). In theory, the increased competition would force weaker banks to exit leaving behind a stronger network of branches.

The fourth point often made by advocates of a branch system is that it may improve bank profitability and stability. Bank profit could increase through the more diverse balance sheets mentioned previously. Some scholars have also indicated that branching reduces administrative costs which could increase profitability (Southworth (1928)). Other scholars argue that branch systems afford banks access to each others deposits so fewer reserves are required which frees funds to be used for profitable purposes (Carlson (2004)). Improved profitability certainly enhances stability, but branch networks are seen to stabilize banking through another mechanism. If bank panics and runs are the result of asymmetric information problems so that depositors are unable to differentiate healthy from unhealthy banks, runs and panics ensue. A network of branches provides resources to banks caught up in the panic or run thereby reassuring depositors and restoring confidence (Bodenhorn (2003)).

On the other side of the issue are those determined to maintain a system of unit banks. Perhaps the most frequently stated reason for retaining the prohibition on interstate branching is the fear that it would lead to monopoly banking. As mentioned above, proponents of branching argue it increases the competitive environment to have branches competing against single office banks. However, opponents argue that if branching forces smaller banks to close their doors because they could not operate profitably, branching would have the effect of increasing industry concentration and reducing competition. A reduction in competition may mean a reduction in interest rates paid on deposits and an increase in interest rates charged for loans (see, for example, Sprague (1903), Collins (1926), Wheelock (1992)). In essence, this position is concerned with the possibility of branching leading to a monopoly control of commercial banking.

Proponents of unit banking also argue that branching will hurt the small local borrower as the bigger, and more distant, bankers will perhaps be less willing to extend credit (Jay (1933)). Sprague (1903) identified early in the debate the asymmetric information problem that may arise with branching. Specifically, Sprague recognized the personal nature of many unit bank loans and the close relationship between the lender and borrower. This relationship provides the lender with more information about borrower risk characteristics. It is argued that some of this information may be lost, and important loans not made, under a branching system. Collins (1926) identifies this as the fundamental problem with a branch system.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE INTEREST GROUP POSITIONS

This paper chronologically analyzes the evolution of the branch banking debate in the United States. The analysis begins by attempting to identify the interest group positions for four periods in U.S. banking history: the antebellum era which considers the period from the inception of banking to the civil war; the national bank era which runs from 1864 to 1913; the Great Depression era which includes the years 1914 through 1935; and the modern era which picks up the analysis in the early 1960s through the passage of the Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994 that allows for interstate banking in the US effective June 1997. In addition to analyzing the interest group positions for these historical periods, market developments are also identified and analyzed. The empirical testing of the positions follows in the next section of the paper.

Antebellum Era

The state of commercial banking varied tremendously throughout the country in antebellum America. This variation was a reflection of the diverse degrees of economic development. Not surprisingly, branch banking regulation also varied from state to state. Chapman and Westerfield (1942) provide the most thorough consideration of branching during the antebellum era and find that most states actually allowed for branching, either intrastate or intracounty.

The antebellum period did see two cases of interstate branching as both the First and Second Banks of the United States were permitted to branch. That is, while state banks were prohibited from interstate branching, both federal banks established networks of branches across the states affording them all the advantages of branching. The First Bank of the United States (1791-1811) operated eight branches and the Second Bank of the United States (1816-1836) operated twenty eight branches (Boeckel (1937)). Thus, banks chartered by state authority were prohibited from interstate branching while the two banks with federal government charters enjoyed the privilege. Not surprisingly, this discrepancy, particularly with the Second Bank, did not sit well with many and thus the branch bank controversy, on a national scale, was born in the United States.

The Congressional Globe documents congressional activity between 1833 and 1873. As such, it is the appropriate source for government discussion of branch banking during the antebellum era. There is no discussion directed specifically to branching. Rather, the vast majority of banking debate surrounded three issues: 1) the constitutionality and charter of the Second Bank of the United States; 2) currency activity of state banks; and 3) the payment of interest on deposits at state banks. The only specific reference found to branching was in 1836 when Senator Benton spoke against a proposed bill that would give authority to the Treasury to establish branches of state banks in states without banking (Congressional Globe, June 18, 1836, 500). Seven states--Arkansas, California, Florida, Iowa, Oregon, Texas, and Wisconsin--prohibited banking at some point in antebellum America (Hammond (1957)). Like many issues of the day, this branching idea was criticized as an intrusion of state rights. In the end, it appears Congress did not consider the branch issue during the antebellum era.

The New York Times historical database begins in 1851 and there is no evidence from this source that branch banking was a part of the national dialogue. Several other national sources also fail to identify branching as an issue during this era in banking history. Consequently, direct evidence of interest group positions in antebellum America on the branching issue has not been found.

Tables 1 and 2 contain a sample of the interest group positions on the branch banking issue for the final three banking eras. Historical research indicates that the small banker was consistently opposed to branching on the grounds that it would create a monopolistic banking system at the expense of the local bank and community (see table 1). In the early history more emphasis was placed on the monopoly perspective and later more emphasis was placed on protecting communities and their bankers. The large banker was also consistent, through all three eras, advocating that branching was stabilizing and would benefit all bank clients (see table 2). In the earlier eras, the large banker also emphasized the position that limits on branching made banks vulnerable to local economic downturns. Tables 1 and 2 paint a broader picture of the nature of the interest group positions throughout history. In what follows, more details of this evolution are provided for the final three banking eras.

National Banking Era

Financial historians refer to the national banking era as the period between the creation of nationally chartered banks in 1864 and the 1913 creation of the Federal Reserve. The opportunity to obtain national bank charters came with the passage of the 1863 National Currency Act and its subsequent revision as the National Bank Act of 1864. The National Bank Act was interpreted to prohibit the branching of national banks. That is, the act did not specifically prohibit branching, but the act required that all business take place at the location designated on the certificate of operation. The second Comptroller of the Currency, Freeman Clark, interpreted this to mean that national banks could not open branches (White (1983)).

Nationally chartered banks were not allowed to establish branches either within a state or between states. At the same time, many states prohibited branching for state banks and even in those states that afforded branching opportunities, few banks actually participated. Throughout the entire national banking era, there were fewer than 500 branches in the entire country (Federal Reserve Bulletin, various years).

The national banking era also witnessed five banking crises. While four of these were largely contained to New York and the surrounding area, the 1893 crisis was larger in terms of the number of bank failures (over 500) and in its geographic spread throughout the country. All of these experiences were certainly on the mind of those interested in the branching issue.

At the same time, U.S. banking witnessed a clear tendency of increased competition from foreign banks. In 1902, a writer for the New York Times described the growing trend for foreign banks to set up branches in cities other than the city of the parent bank. This happened because foreign banks were not subject to the branch restrictions of U.S. banks. He adds:

The fact appears to be that these changes are only another manifestation of the force impelling the financial business of the country as it has already impelled industrial business in the direction of larger organization and co-operation. Americans are as far behind the rest of the active business nations in their banking system as they are ahead of the rest of the world in industrial organization. (New York Times, May 19, 1902)

The domestic crises and growth of foreign banks both added fuel to the branching debate during the national banking era. Yet, in the end, branching made little headway during this period, largely because of the political strength of the small banker.

Great Depression Era

Branch banking, as an important public issue, fell off the nation's collective radar following the national bank era. It was not until the early 1920s that branch banking came to the forefront of public attention. By the middle of the 1920s scholars were calling the branch issue the most important domestic bank issue facing the nation (Collins (1926)). Where did this interest come from? Much of it came from developments in the banking sector. For example, between 1920 and 1926, over two thousand commercial banks failed and most of these were small unit banks (Collins (1926)). One response to these failures was interest in a branch system over a unit system. Another development was the changing composition of commercial banks. Bradford (1930) indicates that beginning in about 1915, the growth in state banks began threatening the position of national banks. Moreover, Bradford (1930) points out that much of the state bank industry gains were the result of branch banking powers in certain states. Preston (1924) makes a similar claim to Bradford but is even more precise by arguing that four developments generated this renewed interest in branching.

First, the Comptroller of the Currency, D.R. Crissinger, observed that in some states many of the state banks were withdrawing from the national bank system so that they could branch. The Comptroller feared that the branching in some states represented an unfair advantage to those state bankers. In 1921, Mr. Crissinger asked Congress to grant nationally chartered banks the ability to branch within the city or county that the parent bank was located. When Congress failed to respond, the Comptroller took matters into his own hands. In early 1922 he let national bankers know that he would permit them the intra-city branch rights in those states that allowed branching. National banks responded by opening branches.

The second development was a market response to Mr. Crissinger's declaration. The First National Bank of St. Louis immediately established a branch within the city even though the state of Missouri prohibited branching. After a court battle, the bank was required to close its branch. Nonetheless, the controversy facilitated more national discussion on branching.

The third event was regulatory change by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve Act allowed a state member bank the right to retain and perhaps even expand its branch system. However, regulators, much like the Comptroller, were becoming increasingly concerned that the state banks in branching states had a competitive advantage over nationally chartered banks. The 1924 revision to the act gave the Federal Reserve more authority in determining whether or not the state member bank could expand its branch system.

The fourth development that elevated branch banking to the national spotlight was a 1924 bill authored by Chairman of the House Committee on Banking and Currency, Mr. McFadden. The primary emphasis of this bill was the intrastate branching rights of state and national banks. This bill, in a revised form, would later become the 1927 McFadden Act whose details are outlined below.

Though not mentioned explicitly by Preston (1924), another development during this era that certainly contributed to the branch banking discussion was the tremendous growth in commercial banks and, paradoxically, the increased industry concentration as the number of mergers increased throughout the 1920s. In 1920 there were over 22,000 state banks and over 8,000 national banks. At the end of the decade, there were 7,530 nationally chartered and 17,440 state chartered banks. Some of the declining numbers may be explained by the significant wave of mergers during this period. Between 1920 and 1930 there were 4,101 bank mergers in the United States (White, (1985)).

In addition to the growth and consolidation during the 1920s, there were three important regulatory developments during this decade. As mentioned above, in 1918 the federal government passed a law that allowed national banks to merge with one another. However, the act did not allow for the easy merging of national banks with other banking institutions. Indeed, if a national bank wanted to merge with a state bank it had to first convert to a state charter, merge, and then be a merged state bank. Since state banks had more intrastate flexibility in terms of branching (in some states) and fewer regulations, the number of national charters fell (in some states) as they converted to state charters.

The second regulatory development in the 1920s was the 1927 passage of the McFadden Act. Six years later, in 1933, Congress adapted further significant bank legislation as the banking sector was devastated by thousands of failures. Both of the regulatory developments are important to the branch banking history of the United States and are discussed next.

Alarmed by the number of conversions, in 1927 Congress passed the McFadden Act which allowed national banks to merge with state banks. The McFadden Act of 1927 also addressed issues of intrastate and interstate branching. The act allowed national banks to branch within the cities in which they were located, if state law permitted. However, the McFadden act effectively prohibited intrastate branching because a national bank could not open branches throughout the state as could state charted banks. In 1927, and for many years thereafter, states prohibited interstate branching for state chartered banks and the 1927 McFadden Act extended that prohibition to nationally chartered banks. Thus, the bank regulation of the 1920s on the one hand, allowed for consolidation while, on the other hand, confined banks geographically by prohibiting intrastate and interstate branching for national banks.

In the 1920s the branch issue was brought to the forefront of national bank policy by two market developments. One was the rapid increase in branch banks coupled with the conversion of nationally chartered banks to state chartered banks in order to take advantage of branch opportunities. Between 1918 and 1926, 206 nationally chartered banks were converted to state chartered and between 1901 and 1926 the number of branch units increased from 60 to 2,233 (New York Times, February 6, 1926, 14). The second market development was the alarming rate of failure among the smaller unit banks. In 1924, 613 small banks failed and the following year there were 464 failures (New York Times, February 6, 1926, 14). These market developments certainly gave the pro branching group a bit of an advantage in the policy discussion. However, the political power of the small banker was too much to move policy beyond intracity branching.

Small bankers continued to oppose extending branch rights. The evidence suggests that the primary position of the small banker was that it would be too much competition and that the small banker would be eliminated leaving behind a monopoly banking system (see table 1). Because of the market developments mentioned above, by October of 1922 the New York Times indicated that the biggest issue facing the American Bankers' Association was that of branch banking (October 3, 1922, 6). At their annual meeting, the members of the Association decisively voted against branching based generally on the fear that branching would lead to the elimination of the small banker and the monopolization of banking by a few.

At the 1922 American Bankers' Association meetings, many bankers representing large bank interests were present to try and convince the association that branching could actually help all sizes of commercial banks. While the large bankers argued that branching improves efficiency and allows banks to better meet the needs of the non-financial sector, primarily agricultural business (see table 2). Many of the small banks were already at their limit on agricultural loans and larger banks, with more capital, could extend more to each industry. Further, the large bankers were eager to establish branching rights and argued it would enhance the safety and stability of banking. In general the large banker was eager to establish branch networks.

There were two significant changes within commercial banking that certainly contributed to the widespread branching discussions and legislative developments. First was the rapid pace of conversion of national to state charters in part because of the branch privileges of many of the state banks. The second development in the banking sector was the relative stability of branching over unit systems. Calomiris (1990) indicates that between 1921 and 1929 only 37 branching banks failed. He also points out that those who witnessed banking in the 1920s were struck by the stability of branch systems and that many states responded by changing their branching laws in response to these observations. More specifically, between 1924 and 1939, the number of full or partial branching states increased from 18 to 36; a clear majority (Calomiris (1990)).

Another market development that cannot be ignored was the invention and use of the automobile. Collins (1926) discusses how traffic congestion made it increasingly difficult for customers to reach their downtown banks. Customers began demanding easier access to the banks outside of the busy downtown. Bankers wanted to meet this demand by establishing intra-city branches and, in many cases, intrastate branches. Further, improvements in telephone networks during this period enabled branch managers to communicate more effectively and at a reduced cost. In this way, branching became an increasingly attractive way for banks to expand.

Despite both the industry consolidation and expansion of national bank branching rights during the 1920s, the 1930s were a terrible disaster for U.S. commercial banking. Over 10,000 banks failed between 1921 and 1931. The majority of these took place after the passage of the McFadden Act and over 80 percent of all failures were small, unit banks (Jay, 1933). Given the banking crisis, it is not surprising that regulatory reform was called upon. The Banking Act of 1933 is a landmark piece of commercial bank legislation in terms of altering the operational parameters of banks. Among other things, the 1933 Act expanded branching rights for nationally chartered banks from the city level in the McFadden Act to the state level. The Banking Act of 1933, to a certain extent, liberalized branch banking laws for nationally chartered banks by allowing them the same branching rights, within state, as state banks.

During the late 1920s and early 1930s, the vast majority of commercial banks were single-office unit banks. As was the case in earlier years, their numeric strength and dominate control over most banker associations put the unit bankers in a position to pressure regulators and legislators. The unit banker feared that if national banks were allowed to establish branch offices in their communities, they would be unable to compete with the larger banks (see table 1). The argument was that the branch system of larger banks would distance the banker from the needs of the local communities thereby leaving the public in a disadvantaged and insecure position.

Using their strength in numbers and their voice in influential industry institutions, such as the American Bankers' Association, the small commercial banker fought to keep the larger banks from entering most markets though out the country. They were motivated, in large part, by the fear that they would be unable to compete in a branch system.

Most large bankers were in favor of a branch system as a means of providing stability and prosperity to commercial banking. Representatives of large commercial banks argued that the smaller banks lacked necessary capital and were unable to properly diversify in order to be profitable (see table 2). Further, many large bankers argued that the process of intrastate and interstate branching would offer the diversification levels necessary for prosperity. Large bank advocates fought for liberalized branching rights based on the argument that the financial community needed to adapt to the changing conditions of the business community. During the late 1920s, the United States witnessed impressive growth in technology, transportation, and energy services. Additionally, industrial enterprises were changing in structure, due to competitive pressure, by becoming highly integrated and hence larger.

In the end, the coalition of small bankers was able to successfully fend off any further erosion in interstate banking. While the large banker enjoyed some small victories in this era with the intra-city banking in 1927 and then intrastate banking in 1933, interstate banking continued to be off limits.

Modern Era

The post depression years were rather quiet for commercial banking and while the interstate banking issue was kept alive it was primarily in academic circles. No serious attempts at changing legislative constraints were considered after the depression legislation until the 1990s. There were pockets of national interest over this time frame but interstate banking was not the primary issue in legislative and regulatory talks. More specifically, as market developments revealed weakness and fragility in the 1960s banking sector, the branch issue once again captured the interest of policymakers but nothing came of it. Major banking legislation was implemented in the 1980s but much of this was not primarily related to interstate banking. It was not until the early 1990s that the focus was directly on interstate banking. The following provides some detail of the evolution of the issue in the modern era.

The branch discussion resurfaced in the early 1960s when James Saxon, Comptroller of the Currency, called for greater branching opportunities for nationally chartered banks. Saxon was concerned that the limits on branching would hinder macroeconomic growth. As population growth shifted to suburban areas the Comptroller was concerned that the 1933 legislation was often an obstacle for meeting the banking needs of the changing demographics. This was particularly true in states that either prohibited branching or limited branching.

As word of Saxon's proposal spread, branch advocates and opponents spoke in all too familiar terms. Small bankers resumed the argument of their predecessors as they were concerned that more branching by national banks would lead to an increase in bank concentration by eliminating many of the small banks. Large bankers favored expanding branch opportunities by arguing branching was more efficient, lowered costs, improved profits and consequently improved the stability of banking.

In the 1980s, regulators and legislators again began discussing branching but not directly. Rather, the concern was over the growth of "non-bank banks". In January of 1986, the Supreme Court limited the Federal Reserve's regulatory authority over non-bank banks. The Bank Holding Company Act of 1956 defined a bank as an institution offering both demand deposits and commercial loans. Non-bank banks could offer one, but not both, services. In this way, they did not fit the legal definition of a bank and so could cross state lines. According to financial experts at the time, the court ruling essentially opened the door to interstate banking. Thus while Congress was, in the 1980s, actively engaged in attempts to make important changes to commercial banking, the focus was not directly on branch banking laws outside the impact that non-bank banks would have on the interstate banking ban.

By the early 1990s, regulators and legislators could no longer ignore the branching issue because of important developments in the market that effectively forced the hands of these policymakers. Faced with increasing bank failures, a depleted deposit insurance fund, a rising number of non-bank banks, and the increasing number and size of regional banking compacts, Congress began looking at the interstate banking ban once again. In 1991 the issue was moved closer to real legal change than the efforts of the 1980s but still fell short.

Unlike the 1980s when branch banking was discussed primarily through indirect channels, in 1991 legislators and regulators pushed hard for interstate branching rights. However, the branching proposal was tied to a proposal to reduce insurance authority previously granted to commercial banks. In the end, this kept legislative leaders from lifting the branching ban. By 1994, market developments progressed to the point where they could no longer be ignored. Further, a bill passed by Congress required large banks to buy, at least for a time, a bank in another state before opening branches. This acquisition requirement appealed to the small bankers because it added value to their franchise. In many cases, this provision was enough to get the small banker to retreat somewhat in their opposition to the bill (New York Times, September 14, 1994, D1).

The debate in the modern era largely saw the small banker make many familiar arguments against interstate banking. For example, many small bankers continued to fight on the grounds that they would be driven out by big banks entering the market (New York Times, September 30, 1991, D5) (see also table 1). However, one development does set the modern era apart from earlier eras in that some small bankers (although certainly the minority) recognized publically that interstate banking may actually have benefits. Evidence of this change was found both in the 1991 debate and again in 1994. For the first time in the interstate banking dialogue, some small bankers actually spoke out in what may be described as lukewarm acceptance of this idea. A columnist for the American Bankers Association Banking Journal wrote:

Legislation easing restrictions on interstate banking will promote continued consolidation in the banking industry, but the impact on community banks will not necessarily be negative. The number of US banks grew steadily as the country expanded westward and has been shrinking just as steadily since then. Community banks will not necessarily disappear in this consolidation, but they will have to become more competitive. (Smith (September 1994, 17)).

A small banker from Missouri was also optimistic as early as 1991 when he commented "When this state went to statewide bank holding companies, people were saying we might as well hang up 'For Sale' signs. That was 20 years ago and we're doing better now than ever." (Cocheo (April 1991)).

The fact that some in the small bank community were speaking in relatively positive terms about the possibility of interstate branching was a significant turning point. Since the chartering of the Second Bank of the United States in 1816, the small banker strongly and unwaveringly opposed interstate banking. It is likely that their experience with interstate branching through bank holding companies, which did not prove to destroy them, gave them the confidence to recognize that there was a place for both small and large institutions in commercial banking. Further, the large number of bank failures in the early nineties led many bankers, both big and small, to realize that a more diverse banking system could have withstood the downturn in both real estate and energy that led many banks into trouble (Bacon, 1994).

The large bankers once again pushed for the right to establish branches across the country. They argued that this would greatly reduce their costs by eliminating duplicative officers and functions (New York Times, February 4, 1994, D14). In 1991 Bank of America indicated that branching would allow the bank to save millions of dollars by eliminating duplication in labor, capital, and functions (Cocheo (April 1991)). In 1993, the CEO of BankAmerica Corp. estimated the costs savings more specifically stating that interstate branching could save the bank $50 million annually (Cocheo (January 1993)). In addition to cost savings, large bankers advocated that interstate branching would strengthen the banking system (see table 2).

Perhaps the most important factor behind the legislative lifting of the interstate banking ban was developments in the market that took place outside the halls of Congress. By the 1990s, commercial banks had successfully pressed into what was essentially interstate banking. Consider, for example, that at the end of 1991, all but two states permitted out-of-state companies to own banks within their borders (CQ Weekly Online (January 4, 1992)). By the middle of 1993, only Hawaii prohibited bank ownership by out of state bank holding companies (LaWare (1993)). Thus states had made it clear that they accepted interstate branching by creating these regional banking compacts throughout the country. Indeed, by the fall of 1994, there were 242 multibank holding companies in the United States (Kane (1996)).

Another market development in the modern era that allowed banks to effectively by-pass the interstate branching ban was the birth of electronic banking. Initially, this took the form of establishing a large network of automatic teller machines that allowed customers to engage in limited banking activity across state lines. Further, some banks were beginning to offer computerized banking which could also cross state lines. Thus, by the time the debate came to an end and intrastate branching was legally recognized, commercial bankers had essentially moved beyond the issue by practicing branching despite the national limitations.

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF INTEREST GROUP POSITIONS

As the previous section of this paper indicates, the interstate branching debate was a long one and the banking environment evolved in significant ways throughout the life of the debate. One relative constant, however, was the position of the interest groups and the rationale behind their position. This section of the paper attempts to empirically test the validity of these positions.

Much has been written about the impact of bank regulation on bank performance (see, for example, Barth et al. (2004), Calomiris (2000), Levin et al. (1999), Kaufman (1996)), on how interest groups influence the regulation and policy process (see, for example, Becker (1983), Stigler (1971), McChesney (1997), Heclo (1978), Kroszner and Strahan (1999)), and more specifically on how branch banking impacts bank performance (see, for example, Amos (1992), Jayaratne and Strahan (1999), Carlson and Mitchener (2006), Ramirez (2003)). This research draws, to some degree, from all these types of existing literature to formulate the models presented here. At the same time, this research extends the body of literature in several ways. First, this paper considers how branch banking impacts bank performance across several historical eras. In contrast, most previous work utilizes either Great Depression data or data from the 1980s forward. This is probably due largely to data availability as it is difficult to create a comprehensive, pre-depression data sample. Second, this research carefully establishes the interest group positions and then empirically tests these over time. This research finds support for the small bank contention that branching may produce less competitive outcomes. At the same time, there is evidence to support the large bankers' position that branching enhances stability.

This analysis draws on previous empirical work that considers how branching impacts performance or market structures, something that both the small and large banker tried to use to influence branch policy. Amos (1992) was interested in learning more about the relationship between branching and bank closures in different states. His ordinary least squares (OLS) specification finds limited evidence to suggest that states which completely restrict branching and states with intrastate branching had more bank failures in the 1980s. Cebula (1994) extended the analysis of Amos by controlling for the financial condition of banks, by creating a single dummy branch variable, and by extending the analysis from the 1980s into the early 1990s. Cebula also finds that states with limited branching experience fewer bank failures which is consistent with comments in Amos (1992). Loucks (1994) takes the Amos relationships but estimates them with the Tobit estimator rather than OLS because some of the dependent variables in Amos are truncated at zero. Louck finds a smaller percentage of bank closures in states with less branch restrictions. Ramirez (2003) takes a more micro approach to the analysis of branching and bank failures by comparing the experience of a branching state with a non-branching state in the 1920s. He finds evidence to indicate more bank failures associated with the unit banking environment. Further, Ramirez suggests that this is because branching reduces costs allowing for larger banks who enjoy more diversified balance sheets.

Other literature controls for the economic diversity of the area in which banks operate. Throughout history, the large banker consistently made the case that branching enhances the diversity of a bank's portfolio and, in doing so, makes the banking system more stable and profitable. Shiers (2002) creates a measure of economic diversity and empirically tests whether this diversity impacts bank risk and profits. For the period 1966 to 1981, Shiers finds that economic diversity reduces bank risk and he also finds similar findings for the time period 1982-1996. More recently, Carlson and Mitchener (2006) test how the growth in branching during the Great Depression influenced bank competition and how the competitive changes affect bank failures. Their hypothesis is that as branching expands, competition increases which leads to exit by banks less able to compete so the banking sector becomes more stable. The empirical findings of Carlson and Mitchener (2006) suggest that, for nationally chartered banks, the competition hypothesis contributed more to stability than did an increase in portfolio diversification. This suggests that the arguments for diversification were perhaps not as valid during the Great Depression era as were the fears of the small banker who anticipated they would be unable to compete with the bigger banks.

This study uses annual aggregate state data for an eleven year span within each banking era. For each banking era, the data is pooled across the states and all bank data includes both state and nationally chartered banks. Ideally this empirical investigation would break the commercial bank data (during the first two eras) into two groups: one for nationally chartered banks and another for state chartered banks. This would be extremely helpful since in these earlier years different chartered banks operated in different branching environments. For example, during the national banking era, some state banks were allowed to branch within state while national banks were not. However, neither failure nor merger data at the state level for both charter types has been found for each year of the sample periods.

In terms of failure data, the Annual Report of the Comptroller of the Currency records the number of national bank failures by state. The number of state bank failures in each state, in contrast, is not available for each year of the national banking era. There are several sources in addition to the publications of the offices of the Comptroller that provide historical bank failure data. These include Goldenweiser (1933), Banking and Monetary Statistics, All-Bank Statistics, and historical issues of the Federal Reserve Bulletin. In the end, however, there is not currently available bank failure data by state and charter type for both the national banking era and Great Depression era.

In terms of bank merger data, like the failure data, there exists several data sources including Chapman (1934) and the Federal Reserve Bulletin (1937). While some of this historical merger data is at the state level, it does not break down into both charter types for both the earlier bank eras. Because of failure and merger data limitations, this paper uses state level banking data without distinguishing between charter types (see Appendix A for all data sources and definitions).

The national banking era sample covers 1900 to 1910, the Great Depression era sample runs from 1924 to 1934, and the modern era sample is from 1984 to 1994. These dates were chosen, in part, due to data constraints but also because of the timing of events such as regulatory changes or banking crises. For example, both the national banking era and Great Depression era experienced financial crises. The national banking era sample years were chosen because there was only one crisis during this time frame and no significant changes in bank regulation. It is nearly impossible to avoid bank crisis or regulatory change in the Great Depression era, unless the analysis ended in or before the 1927 passage of the McFadden Act. In this analysis, the 1933 crisis is controlled for using a dummy specification for the crisis year and the branching regulatory environment is also controlled for. In the modern era, the sample begins after significant bank regulatory change and ends with the passage of the Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994.

For each of the banking eras with identified interest group positions, three interest group positions are specified. First, the small banker unfailingly argued that an extension of branching rights would lead to increased market concentration and monopoly power. The first model attempts to capture the impact of branching on competition. Second, the large banker insisted that allowing for more liberalized branching would make the banking system more stable. Thus, model two captures the impact of branching on bank failures. Finally, the large banker consistently argued that branching would allow them to diversify their portfolios and, consequently, be able to withstand macroeconomic downturns. The failure model contains an explanatory variable meant to capture diversity. Consequently, inferences will be made regarding the relationship between the ability of banks to diversify and its impact on bank failures.

In constructing the models, it is necessary to control for the financial health of the banks (in the failure model), the market structure the banks are operating in, the regulatory environment influencing banker behavior, and the economic health of the state. Model specifications and variable definitions follow.

Competition Model

The small banker spoke loudly and often throughout the branching debate and their message was consistent: the extension of bank branching will lead to less competition and even monopoly banking. To test the validity of this point of view, a competition model is constructed in which the dependent variable captures the extent to which each state banking market was competitive (see equation 1 where i represents the state and t represents the year):

(1) [COMPETITION.sub.it] = [[beta].sub.0] + [[beta].sub.1] [BRANCHING(-1).sub.it] + [[beta].sub.2] [NUMBER(-1).sub.it] + [[beta].sub.3][YEAR.sub.t] + [[beta].sub.4][CRISIS.sub.t] + [[beta].sub.5][STATEECONOMY(-1).sub.it] + error

Following Carlson and Mitchener (2006) COMPETITION is defined as the number of bank mergers. Ideally, a measure of competition could be created that more directly measures competition. For example, a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index would be ideal. However, data constraints prohibit this. In terms of the independent variables, the model tests two specifications to control for the regulatory environment within each state (labeled BRANCHING(-1) in equation 1). One specification, BRANCH, utilizes the one period lag of the number of banks operating branches to control for the level of branching in each state. During the national banking era, if two national banks wanted to merge, one bank was liquidated while the other purchased its assets and liabilities. State banks could often merge, but could not merge with a national bank unless the liquidation process described between two national banks was employed. Alternatively, a state bank and national bank could merge by taking out a state charter. Because of these difficulties, there was not a significant amount of merger activity in this early banking era. In terms of the impact of branching, state banks did use merging as a means of establishing branches so we may expect a positive relationship between branching and merging. During the Great Depression era, national banks were allowed to merge and consolidate without liquidation provided the Comptroller approved. The hurdles to state and national bank merging were in place until the passage of the McFadden Act of 1927 which allowed national banks and state banks to merge under the same rules. As in the earlier era, many banks used mergers to establish branch networks. Consequently, it is expected that this measure of branch activity, BRANCH, to positively impact the degree of concentration in the banking market.

For the alternative branch specification, Shiers (2002) suggests UNIT, the lag of the ratio of the total number of unit banks to the total number of banks, as a measure of the extent of non-branching in each state. This specification captures the opposite of BRANCH and so is expected to have a negative impact on this measure of competition. These two alternative specifications, BRANCH and UNIT, used to control for branching are utilized in the all three eras. However, in the modern era, more specific data indicating the date branch laws changed in each state are available (Stiroh and Strahan, 2003). Consequently, in the modern era, an additional regression is analyzed using controls for the legal changes in branch laws (results in table 6).

The remaining independent variables control for the state economy, the market structure, and time-specific effects. %BUSFAILURE and GSP control for the performance of the state economy (labeled STATEECONOMY(-1) in equation 1). During the two earliest eras, the state economy is proxied as the lag of the percent of business failures in each state. During the modern era, this is measured as the lag of the gross state product. Certainly, the healthier the state economy, the more likely the banking sector is also healthy. A strong economy may signal more opportunities for mergers as banks expand and have the financial ability to purchase other banks. Another possible scenario is one in which there will be more mergers when the state economy is struggling as banks find themselves in weaker positions. From this perspective, bank mergers may be a way for weaker banks to avoid failure. Consequently, the impact of the state control on merger activity is uncertain. To control for the market structure that the banks are operating within, this paper relies on the lag of the number of banks, NUMBER, operating in each state. An increase in the number of banks would lead one to expect fewer bank mergers since merging reduces the number of bank entities. Indeed, Berger, Kashyap, and Scalise (1995) find an increased reduction in the number of banks following the introduction of branch opportunities. Since more branching tends to come, in part, from merging, NUMBER is expected to negatively impact COMPETITION.

YEAR controls for time-specific effects. Given that, with the passage of time, merging became easier in the Great Depression and modern era, it is expected that YEAR will positively impact the number of mergers, particularly in the later two eras. CRISIS controls for any financial crises during the sample period.

Failure Model

The large banker long insisted that more opportunities for branching would improve competition and leave the more efficient and stronger performers standing. From this perspective, branching makes banking more stable, at least after the weaker banks have exited. To test the impact of branching on stability, this paper relies on a failure model since there should be fewer failures, after a period, with opportunities to branch:

(2) [MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSION NOT REPRODUCIBLE IN ASCII]

The dependent variable, FAILURE, is defined as the number of bank failures in each state. BRANCHING, NUMBER, STATEECONOMY, CRISIS, and YEAR are defined as in the COMPETITION model.

To control for the financial health of the banks, three ratios are utilized. The lag of the capital to asset ratio, CAPASSET, indicates the extent to which a bank is able to withstand unexpected adverse conditions (Ramirez (2003), Cebula, (1994)). A lower capital to asset ratio indicates more risk and consequently more failures. LOANASSET, the lag of the ratio of loans to assets, is an indicator of bank risk since loans are typically the most risky asset on a bank balance sheet. As suggested in Ramirez (2003), the higher the ratio of loans to assets, the greater the likelihood of failure. Deposits are usually the cheapest source of funds for a bank and, according to Ramirez (2003), banks with large deposit bases are seen to be financially stronger given the cost advantage from those deposits. Consequently, it is expected that the larger the lag of the ratio of deposits to assets, DEPASSET, the fewer failures. Finally, DIVERSITY is defined as the lag of the ratio of the total number of branches to total number of banks in each state. Carlson and Mitchener (2006) use a similar measure and point out that more opportunities to branch should improve balance sheet diversification and therefore reduce failures.

Given that the data in this research contains both cross-sectional (state) observations and time-series (year) observations, the estimation procedure must be appropriate to this panel data. There are several types of models for panel data. These include the constant coefficient models, fixed effects models, and random effects models. For this research, significant state differences are expected because of different branch laws so the constant coefficient model is not appropriate. To determine whether the fixed or random effects model should be used, it is common to use the Hausman specification test (Wooldridge (2002)). Doing so indicates that testing the impact of branching on competition and bank failures should be done utilizing the fixed effects estimation strategy. The correlation matrix detects no significant multicollinearity in the specifications. Further, each specification is tested for the presence of heteroskedasticity using the Breusch-Pagan test. However, the DW statistic indicates the presence of autocorrelation. This is corrected for utilizing an AR estimator.

RESULTS

Tables 3 through 6 contain the regression results for the fixed effects COMPETITION model for the national banking era, Great Depression era, and modern era respectively. These findings are consistent with existing literature that finds branching leads to more bank mergers. Specifically, Carlson and Mitchener (2006) find that states with branch systems witnessed more mergers during the Great Depression and White (1985) analyzed bank mergers in the 1920s and suggests that there is a positive relationship between branching opportunities and merger activity. The results in table 4 are consistent with this existing Great Depression era research and the results in table 3 indicate that branching in the pre-depression era also increased mergers, and consequently, consolidation in a state's banking system. The estimation results in table 5 are consistent: even in the modern era, the estimated coefficients for both branch specifications support the hypothesis that more branching leads to more banks mergers. These results validate the small bankers' position which was to consistently fight attempts to expand branching on the grounds that it would lead to highly concentrated markets.

The results also suggest that the performance of each state economy in the two early eras has a different influence on COMPETITION than the modern era. More specifically, in both the national banking era and Great Depression era the estimated coefficients on %BUSFAILURE indicate a reduction in bank mergers, i.e. more competition, during more unstable economic times. In contrast, the results in the modern era suggest that slower economic growth corresponds to more mergers, i.e., less competition. Yet, the results are only statistically significant in the modern era and in one regression in the national banking era. Some of these differences may reflect different measures (the lag of the percent of commercial failures in the two early eras and the lag of gross state product in the modern era). Since gross state product is a more comprehensive measure of a state's economic health, the results of the modern era may be more indicative of the relationship between the state economy and level of bank merger activity.

These results suggest that the structure of the market also matters in terms of bank merger activity. In each regression, the control for market structure, NUMBER, is of the expected sign and statistically significant. This is consistent with existing research that finds merger activity to be related to the number of banks in the market.

Finally, the control for time-specific effects is statistically significant across the three eras. Further, the estimated coefficients indicate a positive relationship between time and merger activity, as expected. The control for bank crisis in the time series is statistically significant in the national banking era suggesting the crisis impacted merger activity but the crisis control was not significant in the Great Depression era.

In each era, the COMPETITION model was regressed first without the state control and then with it (regression 1 and regression 2 in tables 3 through 6). While the state control was sometimes statistically significant, it does not appear to contribute much to the overall explanatory power of the regression models.

Table 6 contains the regression results utilizing a different branch specification for the modern era. In this most recent era, it is known with more precision when both intrastate and interstate branching laws were altered. This information allows for the creation of dummy variables that reflect the legal changes in branch laws. The results indicate that allowing for both types of branching increase merger activity but only the interstate control is statistically significant. It is possible that by the 1980s and 1990s, banks had exhausted much of branching through mergers within state but were still merging across state lines since interstate banking typically came later than intrastate banking.

Tables 7, 8, and 9 contain the regression results for the FAILURE model for the Great Depression era and modern era respectively. Because the author does not have access to state level failure data during the national banking era, this model cannot be estimated for the earliest period. While the results of the COMPETITION model provide support for the small bankers' position against the expansion of branching, the FAILURE model provides confirmation of the large banker position that branching stabilizes banking. More specifically, all specifications of branching are of the predicted sign and indicate that more branching opportunities decrease bank failures. It is interesting, however, that the branch specifications are not consistently significant in the Great Depression era. It may be that during the depression, the impact of the wider economy mattered more than the branching structure in explaining bank failures. Given the severity of the economic downturn in this era, this would not be too surprising. Regardless, the results of the FAILURE model clearly indicate that the large banker was correct on the branch issue: branching reduces bank failures.

Four other observations from tables 7 through 9 are worth noting. First is that DIVERSITY is not statistically significant in either era or in any model specification. This suggests that, at least for this particular measure, diversification of bank balance sheets may have been less of a contributor to bank stability than perhaps the increased competition from branching. That is, the branching may have weeded out the weaker banks leaving a stronger system in place. This finding is consistent with the research of Carlson and Mitchener (2006) who find that, during the Great Depression, branching was more important to bank stability than diversification. Second, in all FAILURE regressions, the control for the health of the state economy was an important factor in explaining bank failures. The health of the economy clearly contributes to the health of the commercial banking sector. Third, the financial health of the bank affects bank failures. However, in the Great Depression era, the failures are explained more by the cost of deposits and the reliance on loans whereas in the modern era, the level of bank capital is statistically more valuable in explaining the failures. The fourth and final observation is that the ratio of total deposits to total assets, DEPASSET, is of the expected sign in the Great Depression but not in the Modern Era. Recall that the argument was that deposits are the cheapest source of funds and so could provide a cost advantage to banks with a higher ratio. The results in tables 8 and 9 indicate the opposite during the modern era. It may be that liability competition in the most recent era, from both commercial banks and other financial institutions, has eroded the cost advantage of deposits.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper carefully identifies the small and large banker position on the issue of branch banking throughout U.S. history. Once identified, this research attempts to empirically test the positions in three distinct historical eras. The findings indicate that both the small banker and large banker had valid arguments. Specifically, the estimation results confirm the small bankers' position that branching leads to market concentration and reduced competition. While the small banker often spoke of monopolies, this paper does not attempt to establish the degree of market concentration but, rather, the change in the level of competition as measured by the number of bank mergers. Certainly, the threat of a pure monopoly outcome has not been validated. Rather, across all indentified bank eras, the results indicate that branching increases merger activity. Despite these results, it is important to note that merging need not increase monopoly power, especially if combined with an expansion of branches. Indeed, it is possible that the combination of more mergers and more branches could result in a more competitive environment.

There is also evidence that the large banker was right. The large banker consistently argued that branching would allow banks to become more stable and hence less prone to failure. The estimation results in this paper validate this position. However, the results within this paper also indicate that for a particular measure of diversity it seems that bank failures are not explained by a banks' ability to diversify. Previous research by Carlson and Mitchener (2006) analyze this question using data from the Great Depression and they find evidence that branching contributed quantitatively to the stability of banking rather than geographic diversity. In the end, it appears that the large banker was correct that branching would enhance stability but perhaps because it would weed out the smaller and weaker banks and not because it would improve the diversification of the balance sheet.

These findings paint a picture of a banking system that has fewer banks but more stability. A glimpse at the current market structure is consistent with this picture. Since the 1994 regulatory change that allowed for interstate banking across the country, the number of banks has steadily fallen. Between 1994 and 2007, the number of commercial banks has decreased just over 30% (fdic.gov). However, the number of branches during the same period has increased just over 43%. At the same time, the banking sector has enjoyed a period of stability as the number of bank failures has averaged 4.25 failures per year in the post interstate branching era (through 2007). However, it appears that the commercial banking sector, and wider financial sector, is sure to undergo significant change from this point forward given the turmoil of 2007 and 2008 and ongoing instability in 2009.

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Table 1 Evidence of the Small Banker Position
Argument          Evidence                             Bank Era

1. Branching      1. Small bankers from Kansas         National
leads to          proclaimed "we hereby affirm our     Banking Era
monopoly          unanswering allegiance to that
banking.          view of the proposition which
                  condemns it (branching) in all
                  its forms as being unpatriotic,
                  un-American, un-businesslike,
                  and as tending to establish a
                  monopoly of the great and
                  honored business of banking in
                  the hands of a few millionaires,
                  to the exclusion of the men of
                  the West, old and young, who
                  have labored so faithfully and
                  well to make our banking system
                  what it is to-day, the best in
                  the known world." (New York
                  Times, May 15, 1902)

                  2. A group of small bankers from
                  Missouri condemned branching as
                  " ... it to be unwise, unsafe,
                  unsound, and detrimental to the
                  banking interests of the United
                  States." (New York Times, May
                  15, 1902)

                  3. Declaration: "Resolved by the     Great
                  American Bankers' Association,       Depression Era
                  That we view with alarm the
                  establishment of branch banking
                  in the United State and the
                  attempt to permit and legalize
                  branch banking; that we hereby
                  express our disapproval of and
                  opposition to branch-banking in
                  any form by State or national
                  banks in our nation."

                  "Resolved that we regard branch
                  banking or the establishment of
                  additional offices by banks as
                  detrimental to the best
                  interests of the people of the
                  United States. Branch banking is
                  contrary to public policy,
                  violates the basic principles of
                  our Government and concentrates
                  the credits of the nation and
                  the power of money in the hands
                  of a few." (New York Times,
                  October 5, 1922, 8)

                  4. A small bank representative:
                  "Mr. Frame, speaking first, said
                  he would speak on "Monopoly vs.
                  Democracy in Banking." Asserting
                  that the 30,000 independent
                  banks of the United States had
                  done more to build the country
                  than "all the cream- skimming
                  monopolistic banks have done for
                  other nations," he denied the
                  contention of pro-branchers that
                  branches served the people
                  better or that failures and
                  losses to depositors are
                  lessened under branch banking."
                  (New York Times, October 5,
                  1922, 8)

                  5. A representative of the
                  American Bankers' Association
                  warned that: "Branch banking
                  will drive the small,
                  independent community banker
                  from America ... and in their
                  stead would spring up a system
                  of hundreds of branch banks
                  controlled by one or two leading
                  national groups." (New York
                  Times, November 7, 1923)

                  6. Excerpt from a small bank
                  president: "The passage of the
                  bill as it now stands,
                  containing the branch bank
                  feature, means the ultimate
                  elimination of State and unit
                  banks; it means the destruction
                  of individual initiate and
                  development, which is the thing
                  that every American cherishes
                  ... The backbone of our country
                  is the small, independent
                  business and banking
                  institution." (Congressional
                  Record, 72nd Congress, 2nd
                  Session, Vol. 76, Pt 2, 1468)

2. Branching      1. "Although the American            Great
hurts the         Bankers' Association, composed       Depression Era
small borrower    of a majority of small
and local         institutions, has taken a strong
community.        opposition to nationwide branch
                  banking on the grounds that
                  small communities are best
                  served by local
                  institutions."(New York Times,
                  October 28, 1927, 37).

                  2. "The fact that the local
                  banker is the executive of final
                  responsibility, that his
                  greatest interest is in the
                  community which the bank serves,
                  that he is not restrained by the
                  lifeless rule of bank
                  bureaucracy, that he can,
                  because of his intimate
                  knowledge of clients, beam upon
                  the spirit of petty local
                  enterprise, all these are
                  marshaled in support of the
                  independent bank." (Bankers'
                  Magazine, September 1930, 301)

                  3. A small community banker:         Modern Era
                  "You'd have some guy in Atlanta
                  deciding on whether to make a
                  $50,000 mortgage in Mount
                  Pleasant. He may decide that at
                  that moment he'd rather put the
                  money in Mexico for a better
                  return." (Cocheo, April 1991).

                  4. "Interstate branching is bad
                  public policy; it provides no
                  benefit for community bankers;
                  and it is little more that
                  special interest legislation to
                  allow our nation's biggest banks
                  to consolidate their empires,"
                  according to an Independent
                  Bankers Association of America
                  statement. Consolidation, they
                  claim, would cost communities
                  jobs." (Dahl et al., 1995).

Table 2 Evidence of the Large Banker Position

    Argument                   Evidence                   Bank Era

1. Restrictions    1. Thomas Preston, the President   Great Depression
limit balance      of the Hamilton National Bank of   Era
sheet diversity.   Chattanooga, Tennessee, argued
                   that branch banking "gives a
                   diversification of loans and
                   investments that is not possible
                   in a unit bank, and in many
                   instances a large bank with
                   branches has been known to lend
                   more in some small communities
                   than the entire resources of
                   that particular branch." (New
                   York Times, August 1932, 15)

2. Restrictions    1. William A. Nash, President of   National Banking
limit banks'       the Corn Exchange National Bank,   Era
ability to meet    spoke before the New York
client needs.      Bankers' Association and he
                   claimed that the greatest
                   benefit of a branch system is
                   the ability to move funds from
                   one branch to another to meet
                   demand for deposits and loans
                   (New York Times, October 10,
                   1902, 16).

                   2. A President of a large bank     Great Depression
                   spoke to Congress: "Banking,       Era
                   (too), has felt the pressure
                   towards larger units and
                   interconnections of units, the
                   better to serve growing
                   industries and communities. The
                   quickened tempo of today's
                   business has emphasized the
                   interdependence of communities
                   within the same natural
                   industrial area, and had
                   indicated the need for a more
                   comprehensive and more closely
                   knit banking service that has
                   been available heretofore
                   through the isolated unit
                   banks." (Congress, House,
                   Committee on Banking and
                   Currency, Branch, Chain, and
                   Group Banking, 71st Cong., 2nd
                   Sess., April 1930, 1039)

3. Restrictions    1. A banker representing the       National Banking
limit              large bank interest commented:     Era
competition        "In respect to branch banking
resulting in       our system is unique. The laws
higher prices      of every other important nation
for consumers.     encourages branch banking, and
                   the results of it have never
                   tended to enslave the people, to
                   build up dangerous monopolies,
                   nor to increase the interest
                   rate. The result, in fact, has
                   been quite the reverse. Rates
                   are kept uniform over a large
                   territory, the tendency toward
                   violent fluctuations is reduced,
                   and the privileges and benefits
                   of safe banking widely
                   disseminated." (New York Times,
                   December 14, 1907, 6)

                   2. A large bank representative     Great Depression
                   observed: "Wherever a branch of    Era
                   our bank has been located where
                   there was an existing local
                   bank, it was permitted only
                   after careful investigation by
                   the banking department as to the
                   need of another bank in that
                   community. Whenever such a
                   condition existed you will find
                   in each case the then existing
                   bank has today increased
                   deposits equal to the total of
                   our branch operating in that
                   locality. Otherwise I contend a
                   branch of our bank in that
                   locality made a banking centre
                   and not only stimulated business
                   for itself but benefited its
                   competitor." (New York Times,
                   October 4, 1922, 7).

                   3. The CEO of Norwest Corp.        Modern Era
                   observed: "It's (branch banking)
                   about allowing banks to serve
                   our customers wherever they are,
                   wherever they want to be, and
                   doing it faster, better and at a
                   lower cost. No matter where they
                   live, work, move or travel,
                   consumers will be able to bank
                   there, too." (Dahl et al. 1995).

4. Restrictions    1. The President of the First      National Banking
hurt               National Bank of Chicago, which    Era
profitability      was the second largest bank in
and bank           the United States at the time,
stability.         spoke before the Milwaukee
                   Bankers' Club and indicated that
                   a branching system would bring
                   more profits because deposits
                   could be used more efficiently
                   (New York Times, May 5, 1902,
                   1).

                   2. A scholar observed: "The        Great Depression
                   branch bankers, on the other       Era
                   hand, endeavored to prove that
                   intercommunity branch banking
                   had resulted in greater service
                   to the people of the state and
                   had contributed to the
                   remarkable record of safety of
                   banks in California during the
                   past fourteen years. They
                   favored permitting branches of
                   national banks not only in the
                   cities but on a basis of full
                   equality with the state banks."
                   (Preston 1924, 456)

                   3. A Spokesperson for Northwest
                   Bancoporation, the largest bank
                   in the U.S. in 1930:
                   "Communities will be insured
                   greater financial stability and
                   will be provided with broader
                   and better services than has
                   been possible by independent
                   unit banks. Regardless of
                   temporary depressions affecting
                   one locality or industry, every
                   bank will be able to render
                   uniform and continuous service."
                   (Neville 1930, 224).

                   4. Chairman and CEO of Banc One    Modern Era
                   Corporation commented "[The
                   interstate banking] legislation
                   will lessen regional economic
                   downturns, such as the one that
                   hit New England several years
                   ago. It is clear that in New
                   England the downturn was made
                   much worse because weakened
                   banks were forced to shrink
                   their loan portfolios as their
                   capital levels fell off because
                   of losses. Interstate banking,
                   it is now recognized, would have
                   enables banks to better
                   withstand regional loan losses
                   and to continue providing credit
                   to job-creating businesses in
                   New England." (Wall Street
                   Journal, March 9, 1994, A12)

Table 3: Estimation Results for COMPETITION in National Banking Era

   Variable Name              Number of Banks
                            Operating Branches

                       Regression 1      Regression 2

UNIT (-1)

BRANCH (-1)              0.074 ***         0.154 ***
                          (1.76)            (1.81)

NUMBER (-1)              -0.004 **         -0.001 **
                          (2.06)            (1.96)

YEAR                     0.111 **          0.202 ***
                          (2.08)            (1.87)

CRISIS                  -0.578 ***         -0.869 *
                          (1.68)            (2.81)
%BUSFAILURE (-1)                            -0.416
                                            (1.26)
Observations
  Cross-section             25                25
  Time-series               225               225

[R.sup.2]                  .576              .647
F-statistic                6.48              6.719
DW statistic               2.067             2.035

   Variable Name                Ratio of Unit
                            Banks to Total Banks

                       Regression 1      Regression 2

UNIT (-1)                -4.11 ***         -5.93 **
                          (1.72)            (1.97)
BRANCH (-1)

NUMBER (-1)              -0.001 **         -0.003 **
                          (1.94)            (2.02)

YEAR                      0.128 *           0.126 *
                          (2.73)            (2.62)

CRISIS                   -0.529 **           -0.64
                          (2.08)            (1.57)
%BUSFAILURE (-1)                           -0.475 *
                                            (2.51)
Observations
  Cross-section             25                25
  Time-series               225               225

[R.sup.2]                  .614              .643
F-statistic                6.219             6.289
DW statistic               2.081             2.085

Dependent Variable: number of mergers. Independent variables:
"BRANCH" is the lag of the number of banks operating branches in
each state for each year. "NUMBER" is the lag of the total number of
banks in each state. "YEAR" controls for time-specific effects.
"CRISIS" is 0 for all years without a financial crisis, 1 for 1907.
"%BUSFAILURE" is the lag of the percent of commercial business
failures in each state. "UNIT" is the lag of the ratio of total
number of unit banks to total banks in each state. The first two
columns of results are for the legal branch status control and the
third and fourth columns are for the extent of branching control
specification. Regression 1 contains a control for the regulatory
environment and market structure, Regression 2 contains controls
from (1) and adds a control for the state economy. t-value in
parenthesis. * significant at 1% level. ** significant at 5% level.
*** significant at 10% level. Note that data availability was
limited for this era. Consequently, only 25 states are included in
this analysis: Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois,
Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska,
North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South
Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin,
Wyoming. For data sources, see Appendix A.

Table 4: Estimation Results for COMPETITION in Great Depression Era

   Variable Name        Number of Banks Operating Branches

                         Regression 1       Regression 2

UNIT (-1)

BRANCH (-1)               0.097 ***          0.101 ***
                            (1.69)             (1.76)

NUMBER (-1)               -0.001 **          -0.001 **
                            (1.84)             (2.01)

YEAR                      -0.208 **          -0.216 **
                            (1.89)             (1.97)

CRISIS                      0.714              0.688
                            (1.30)             (1.25)

%BUSFAILURE (-1)                               -0.829
                                               (1.07)

Observations
  Cross-section               47                 47
  Time-series                423                423

[R.sup.2]                    .664               .701
F-statistic                 10.017             9.851
DW Statistic                2.107              2.107

   Variable Name        Ratio of Unit Banks to Total Banks

                         Regression 1       Regression 2

UNIT (-1)                 -1.732 ***         -1.12 ***
                            (1.86)             (1.81)

BRANCH (-1)

NUMBER (-1)               -0.003 ***         -0.002 ***
                            (1.81)             (1.84)

YEAR                      -0.206 ***         -0.215 ***
                            (1.76)             (1.83)

CRISIS                       0.67              0.652
                            (1.24)             (1.19)

%BUSFAILURE (-1)                               -0.741
                                              (0.958)

Observations
  Cross-section               47                 47
  Time-series                423                423

[R.sup.2]                    .686               .698
F-statistic                 9.893              9.926
DW Statistic                2.102              2.102

Dependent Variable: number of mergers. Independent variables:
"BRANCH" is the lag of the number of banks operating branches.
"NUMBER" is the lag of the total number of banks in each state.
"YEAR" controls for time-specific effects. "CRISIS" is 0 for all
years without a financial crisis, 1 for 1933. "%BUSFAILURE" is the
lag of the percent of commercial business failures in each state.
"UNIT" is the lag of the ratio of total number of unit banks to
total banks in each state. The first two columns of results are for
the legal branch status control and the third and fourth columns are
for the extent of branching control specification. Regression 1
contains a control for the regulatory environment and market
structure, Regression 2 contains controls from (1) and adds a
control for the state economy. t-value in parenthesis. * significant
at 1% level. ** significant at 5% level. *** significant at 10%
level. For data sources, see Appendix A.

Table 5: Estimation Results for COMPETITION in Modern Era

   Variable Name       Number of Banks Operating Branches

                         Regression 1       Regression 2

UNIT (-1)

BRANCH (-1)                2.451 **           2.948 **
                            (2.05)             (2.11)

NUMBER (-1)              -0.0002 ***         -0.0001 **
                            (1.86)             (2.16)

YEAR                      0.385 ***           0.825 **
                            (1.98)             (2.06)

GSP (-1)                                     -0.0002 *
                                               (2.94)

Observations
  Cross-section               50                 50
  Time-series                450                450

[R.sup.2]                    .604               .624
F-statistic                 10.428             12.304
DW Statistic                2.045              2.921

   Variable Name       Ratio of Unit Banks to Total Banks

                         Regression 1       Regression 2

UNIT (-1)                   -1.144             -3.88
                            (1.21)             (1.41)

BRANCH (-1)

NUMBER (-1)               -0.0001 **         -0.001 **
                           (2.04))             (2.15)

YEAR                        0.199             0.792 **
                            (0.94)             (2.03)

GSP (-1)                                     -0.0001 *
                                               (3.00)

Observations
  Cross-section               50                 50
  Time-series                450                450

[R.sup.2]                    .593               .602
F-statistic                 10.894             11.081
DW Statistic                2.059              2.082

Dependent Variable: number of mergers. Independent variables:
"BRANCH" is the lag of the ratio of the number of banks operating
branches to total banks in each state. "NUMBER" is the lag of the
total number of banks in each state. "YEAR" controls for time-
specific effects. "GSP" is the lag of the gross state product in
each state. "UNIT" is the lag of the ratio of total number of unit
banks to total banks in each state. The first two columns of results
are for the legal branch status control and the third and fourth
columns are for the extent of branching control specification.
Regression 1 contains a control for the regulatory environment and
market structure, Regression 2 contains controls from (1) and adds a
control for the state economy. t-value in parenthesis. * significant
at 1% level. ** significant at 5% level. *** significant at 10%
level. For data sources, see Appendix A.

Table 6 Estimation Results for COMPETITION in Modern Era with
Alternative Branch Specification

   Variable Name              Legal Branch Status

                         Regression 1       Regression 2

INTRASTATE                  0.684              0.369
                           (0.931)             (0.82)

INTERSTATE                 3.932 **           2.728 **
                            (1.64)             (1.69)

NUMBER (-1)               -0.004 **           -0.003 *
                            (1.91)             (2.73)

YEAR                        0.065            0.684 ***
                           (0.723)             (1.62)

GSP(-1)                                      -0.0001 *
                                               (2.72)
Observations
  Cross-section               50                 50
  Time-series                450                450

[R.sup.2]                    .596               .603
F-statistic                 10.792             10.901
DW Statistic                2.059              2.081

Dependent Variable: number of mergers. Independent variables:
"INTRASTATE" is 0 for years of no intrastate branching, 1 otherwise
for each state. "INTERSTATE" is 0 for years of no interstate
branching, 1 otherwise for each state. "NUMBER" is the lag of the
total number of banks in each state. "YEAR" controls for time-
specific effects. "GSP" is the lag of the gross state product in
each state. "UNIT" is the lag of the ratio of total number of unit
banks to total banks in each state. The first two columns of results
are for the legal branch status control and the third and fourth
columns are for the extent of branching control specification.
Regression 1 contains a control for the regulatory environment and
market structure, Regression 2 contains controls from (1) and adds a
control for the state economy. t-value in parenthesis. * significant
at 1% level. ** significant at 5% level. *** significant at 10%
level. For data sources, see Appendix A.

Table 7 Estimation Results for FAILURE in Great Depression Era

   Variable Name            Number of Banks Operating
                                     Branches

                         Regression 1       Regression 2

UNIT (-1)

BRANCH (-1)                 -0.278             -0.263
                            (1.42)             (1.39)

CAPASSET (-1)               -19.93            -18.671
                            (0.97)             (1.04)

LOANASSET (-1)             76.277 *          73.528 **
                            (2.39)             (2.24)

DEPASSET (-1)            -38.260 ***          -37.046
                            (1.59)             (1.47)

DIVERSITY (-1)              -6.555            -30.851
                            (1.32)             (1.32)

YEAR                       2.255 **          2.127 ***
                            (1.97)             (1.76)

%BUSFAILURE (-1)           20.082 *           19.676 *
                            (2.63)             (2.54)

CRISIS                     61.765 *           62.081 *
                            (9.41)             (9.37)

NUMBER (-1)                                   0.002 **
                                               (2.21)
Observations
  Cross-sectional             47                 47
  Time-series                423                423

[R.sup.2]                    .536               .593
F                           6.391              6.419
DW Statistic                2.151              2.151

   Variable Name       Ratio of Unit Banks to Total Banks

                         Regression 1       Regression 2

UNIT (-1)                 13.131 ***           13.633
                            (1.64)             (1.45)
BRANCH (-1)

CAPASSET (-1)              -18.512             -16.97
                            (1.04)             (0.96)

LOANASSET (-1)             76.287 *           72.940 *
                            (2.41)             (2.24)

DEPASSET (-1)            -38.882 ***        -37.431 ***
                            (1.61)             (1.58)

DIVERSITY (-1)             -11.296            -16.726
                            (0.95)             (0.70)

YEAR                       2.395 **           2.240 **
                            (2.09)             (1.87)

%BUSFAILURE (-1)           20.345 *           19.873 *
                            (2.67)             (2.58)

CRISIS                     61.613 *            61.998
                            (9.40)             (9.39)

NUMBER (-1)                                   0.001 **
                                               (1.93)
Observations
  Cross-sectional             47                 47
  Time-series                423                423

[R.sup.2]                    .526               .532
F                           6.561              6.641
DW Statistic                2.149              2.151

Dependent Variable: Number of bank failures in each state.
Independent Variables: "UNIT" is the lag of the ratio of number of
unit banks to total number of banks in each state. "BRANCH" is the
lag of the ratio of the number of banks operating branches to total
number of banks in each state. "CAPASSET" is the lag of the ratio of
total bank capital to total bank assets in each state. "LOANASSET"
is the lag of the ratio of total bank loans to total bank assets in
each state. "DEPASSET" is the lag of the ratio of total bank
deposits to total bank assets in each state. "DIVERSITY" is the lag
of the ratio of total number of bank branches to total number of
banks in each state. "YEAR" controls for time-specific effects.
"%BUSFAILURE" is the lag of the percent of commercial business
failures in each state. "CRISIS" equals one in 1933, otherwise 0.
"NUMBER" is the lag of the total number of banks in each state.
Regression 1 contains a control for the regulatory environment, bank
financial health controls, and the state economy. Regression 2
contains controls from (1) and adds a control for the market
structure. t-value in parenthesis. * significant at 1% level. **
significant at 5% level. *** significant at 10% level. For data
sources, see Appendix A.

Table 8: Estimation Results for FAILURE in Modern Bank Era

   Variable Name       Number of Banks Operating Branches

                         Regression 1       Regression 2

UNIT (-1)

branch (-1)               -1.490 **          -2 931 ***
                            (2.29)             (2.02)
CAPASSET (-1)             -4.696 **          -9.495 **
                            (2.11)             (2.23)
LOANASSET (-1)              0.594              0.966
                            (0.94)             (1.02)
DEPASSET (-1)               0.004              0.071
                            (0.38)             (0.59)
DIVERSITY (-1)              -0.493             -0.388
                            (0.73)             (0.94)
YEAR                      1 739 ***           2.037 **
                            (1.98)             (2.45)
GSP (-1)                  -0.0002 *          -0.0001 *
                            (4.52)             (4.72)
NUMBER (-1)                                  0.0001 ***
                                               (1.99)
Observations
  Cross-sectional             50                 50
  Time-series                450                450

[R.sup.2]                    .748               .766
F-statistic                 22.384             23.847
DW statistic                1.903              1.956

   Variable Name       Ratio of Unit Banks to Total Banks

                         Regression 1       Regression 2

UNIT (-1)                 6.651 ***          6.888 ***
                            (1.69)             (1.72)
branch (-1)

CAPASSET (-1)             -6.809 ***         -11.561 **
                            (1.73)             (1.96)
LOANASSET (-1)              0.296              0.257
                           (0.741)             (0.82)
DEPASSET (-1)               0.0002             0.035
                            (0.24)             (0.31)
DIVERSITY (-1)              -0.328             -0.152
                            (0.81)             (0.75)
YEAR                       1.411 **           1.562 **
                            (2.19)             (2.34)
GSP (-1)                  -0.0003 *          -0.0002 *
                            (5.25)             (5.15)
NUMBER (-1)                                  0.0001 ***
                                               (1.94)
Observations
  Cross-sectional             50                 50
  Time-series                450                450

[R.sup.2]                    .779               .779
F-statistic                 24.294             23.880
DW statistic                1.921              1.921

Dependent Variable: Number of bank failures in each state.
Independent Variables: "UNIT" is the lag of the ratio of number of
unit banks to total number of banks in each state. "BRANCH" is the
lag of the ratio of the number of banks operating branches to total
number of banks in each state. "CAPASSET" is the lag of the ratio of
total bank capital to total bank assets in each state. "LOANASSET"
is the lag of the ratio of total bank loans to total bank assets in
each state. "DEPASSET" is the lag of the ratio of total bank
deposits to total bank assets in each state. "DIVERSITY" is the lag
of the ratio of total number of bank branches to total number of
banks in each state. "YEAR" controls for time-specific effects.
"GSP" is the lag of the gross state product. "NUMBER" is the lag of
the total number of banks in each state. Regression 1 contains a
control for the regulatory environment, bank financial health
controls, and the state economy. Regression 2 contains controls from
(1) and adds a control for the market structure. t-value in
parenthesis. * significant at 1% level. ** significant at 5% level.
*** significant at 10% level. For data sources, see Appendix A.

Table 9: Estimation Results for FAILURE in Modern Bank Era with
Alternative Branch Specification

   Variable Name              Legal Branch Status

                         Regression 1       Regression 2

INTERSTATE                  -0.319             -0.325
                            (0.94)             (1.10)

INTRASTATE                 3.093 *            3.136 *
                            (2.59)             (2.63)

CAPASSET (-1)             -8.090 ***         -6.856 ***
                            (1.59)             (1.65)

LOANASSET (-1)              0.298              0.245
                            (0.46)             (0.31)

DEPASSET (-1)               0.018              0.019
                            (0.51)             (0.53)

DIVERSITY (-1)              -0.292             -0.105
                            (0.93)             (0.91)

YEAR                       1.252 **           1.426 **
                            (1.83)             (2.01)

GSP (-1)                  -0.0003 *          -0.0003 *
                            (5.71)             (5.63)

NUMBER (-1)                                  0.0003 **
                                               (2.04)
Observations
  Cross-sectional             50                 50
  Time-series                450                450

[R.sup.2]                    .782               .784
F-statistic                 24.310             23.922
DW statistic                1.941              1.973

Dependent Variable: Number of bank failures in each state.
Independent Variables: "UNIT" is the lag of the ratio of number of
unit banks to total number of banks in each state. "INTRASTATE" is 0
for years of no intrastate branching, 1 otherwise for each state.
"INTERSTATE" is 0 for years of no interstate branching, 1 otherwise
for each state. "CAPASSET" is the lag of the ratio of total bank
capital to total bank assets in each state. "LOANASSET" is the lag
of the ratio of total bank loans to total bank assets in each state.
"DEPASSET" is the lag of the ratio of total bank deposits to total
bank assets in each state. "DIVERSITY" is the lag of the ratio of
total number of bank branches to total number of banks in each
state. "YEAR" controls for time-specific effects. "GSP" is the lag
of the gross state product. "NUMBER" is the lag of the total number
of banks in each state. Regression 1 contains a control for the
regulatory environment, bank financial health controls, and the
state economy. Regression 2 contains controls from (1) and adds a
control for the market structure. t-value in parenthesis. *
significant at 1% level. ** significant at 5% level. *** significant
at 10% level. For data sources, see Appendix A.

Appendix A: Data Sources and Description

                                         Great
                   National Bank      Depression
     Data             Era (a)           Era (b)         Modern Era

Gross State       NA                NA                Survey of
Product                                               Current
                                                      Business,
                                                      various years

Commercial        Historical        Historical        Not required.
failures          Statistics of     Statistics of
                  the U.S.          the U.S.
                  Colonial Times    Colonial Times
                  to 1970, each     to 1970, each
                  year 1900-        year 1924-
                  1910.             1934.

Total Number      All Bank          All Bank          FDIC Historical
Commercial        Statistics        Statistics        Statistics on
Banks             1896-1955,        1896-1955, each   Banking, each
                  each year         year 1924-1934    year 1984-1994
                  1900-1910

Total Number      Calculated as     Calculated as     FDIC Historical
Unit Banks        Total Number of   Total Number of   Statistics on
                  Banks minus       Banks minus       Banking, each
                  Number of Banks   Number of Banks   year 1984-1994
                  Operating         Operating
                  Branches.         Branches.

Number of Banks   Banking and       Banking and       FDIC Historical
Operating         Monetary          Monetary          Statistics on
Branches          Statistics,       Statistics,       Banking, each
                  1914-1941, for    1914-1941, for    year 1984-1994
                  years 1900 and    years 1925 and
                  1910. Remaining   1930.
                  years             Goldenweiser
                  extrapolated      (1931) for
                  from regional     1931. Remaining
                  data in           years
                  Goldenweiser      extrapolated
                  (1931)            from regional
                                    data in
                                    Goldenweiser
                                    (1931)

Number of         Banking and       Banking and       FDIC Historical
Branches          Monetary          Monetary          Statistics on
                  Statistics,       Statistics,       Banking, each
                  1914-1941, for    1914-1941, for    year 1984-1994
                  years 1900 and    years 1925 and
                  1910. Remaining   1930.
                  years             Goldenweiser
                  extrapolated      (1931) for
                  from regional     1931. Remaining
                  data in           years
                  Goldenweiser      extrapolated
                  (1931)            from regional
                                    data in
                                    Goldenweiser
                                    (1931)

Number of         Calomiris         Federal Reserve   FDIC Historical
Mergers           (2000) provides   Bulletin, 1937,   Statistics on
                  the number of     each year 1924-   Banking, each
                  mergers and       1934              year 1984-1994
                  consolidations
                  for each state
                  for 1900-1909.
                  1910 data
                  extrapolated.

Total Bank        All Bank          All Bank          FDIC Historical
Capital           Statistics        Statistics        Statistics on
                  1896-1955, each   1896-1955, each   Banking, each
                  year 1900-1910    year 1924-1934    year 1984-1994

Total Bank        All Bank          All Bank          FDIC Historical
Assets            Statistics        Statistics        Statistics on
                  1896-1955, each   1896-1955, each   Banking, each
                  year 1900-1910    year 1924-1934    year 1984-1994

Total Bank        All Bank          All Bank          FDIC Historical
Loans             Statistics        Statistics        Statistics on
                  1896-1955, each   1896-1955, each   Banking, each
                  year 1900-1910    year 1924-1934    year 1984-1994

Total Deposits    All Bank          All Bank          FDIC Historical
                  Statistics        Statistics        Statistics on
                  1896-1955, each   1896-1955, each   Banking, each
                  year 1900-1910    year 1924-1934    year 1984-1994

Number of Bank    Annual Report     Banking and       FDIC Historical
Failures          of the            Monetary          Statistics on
                  Comptroller of    Statistics,       Banking, each
                  the Currency      1914-1941, each   year 1984-1994
                  (1910, 212-23)    year 1924-1934
                  for national
                  banks and
                  Barnett (1911,
                  186-190) for
                  state banks

Notes: (a) The national bank era sample does not include Alaska,
Arizona, New Mexico, or Hawaii since these states were not yet
legally formed. Further, Oklahoma has been omitted since its
statehood was declared in 1907. (b) The Great Depression era does
not include Alaska or Hawaii since these states were not yet legally
formed.
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