The determinants of movie rental revenue earnings.
Terry, Neil ; De'Armond, De'Arno
INTRODUCTION
The average budget of making a motion picture for release in the
United States has risen to almost fifty million dollars per movie. This
rising cost has resulted in motion picture studios seeking multiple
sources of revenue including domestic box office, foreign box office,
product placement, merchandising, video sales, and video rental revenue.
A single movie can be the difference between millions of dollars of
profits or losses for a studio in a given year (Simonoff & Sparrow,
2000). The purpose of this research is to analyze the motion picture
industry with a focus on the determinants of video rental revenue. This
manuscript is divided into four sections. First, a survey of the related
literature is discussed. The second section provides the model
specification. The third section puts forth an empirical evaluation of
the determinants of video revenue for 214 films released during the year
2006. The final section offers concluding remarks.
SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE
The literature on the determinants of video rental revenue is in
its infancy but expected to be highly correlated with the determinants
of box office revenue. Many researchers have developed models that
explore the potential determinants of motion picture box office
performance. Litman (1983) was the first to develop a multiple
regression model in an attempt to predict the financial success of
films. The original independent variables in the landmark work include
movie genre (science fiction, drama, action-adventure, comedy, and
musical), Motion Picture Association of America rating (G, PG, R and X),
superstar in the cast, production costs, release company (major or
independent), Academy Awards (nominations and winning in a major
category), and release date (Christmas, Memorial Day, summer).
Litman's model provides evidence that the independent variables for
production costs, critics' ratings, science fiction genre, major
distributor, Christmas release, Academy Award nomination, and winning an
Academy Award are all significant determinants of the success of a
theatrical movie. Litman and Kohl (1989), Litman and Ahn (1998), and
Terry, Butler, and De'Armond (2004) have replicated and expanded
the initial work of Litman. None of the extensions of Litman's work
has focused on video revenue financial performance.
One area of interest has been the role of the critic (Weiman,
1991). The majority of studies find that critics play a significant role
on the success or failure of a film. Eliashberg and Shugan (1997) divide
the critic into two roles, the influencer and the predictor. The
influencer is a role where the critic will influence the box office
results of a movie based on his or her review of the movie. Eliashberg
and Shugan's results suggest that critics do have the ability to
manipulate box office revenues based on their review of a movie. The
predictor is a role where the critic, based on the review, predicts the
success of a movie but the review will not necessarily have an impact on
how well the movie performs at the box office. Eliashberg and Shugan
show that the predictor role is possible but does not have the same
level of statistical evidence as the influencer role.
King (2007) explores the theoretical power and weakness of critics
on the box office performance of movies. The substantial market power of
critics is derived from the following: (1) Film reviews are widely
available in newspapers, magazines, and websites. The ubiquitous
availability of critical reviews in advance of a movie release creates
positive or negative energy in the critical opening weeks; (2) Film
critics regard themselves as advisors to their readers. They are often
as explicit in their recommendations as Consumer Reports is about other
consumer purchases; (3) Film critics are likely to be considered
objective. There are too many critics and too many films for serious
critical bias to develop. Those who are skeptical about the influence of
film critics point to the following counter arguments: (1) It is
possible that the effects of aggressive marketing at the time of a
film's release might dominate critical evaluations in determining
opening attendance; (2) Critics may raise issues that do not concern
most audiences. They are more likely to notice and comment on technical
issues, like cinematographic technique, than the average member of the
audience; (3) Critics may write for a readership that has different
tastes from the average cinemagoer. The most obvious potential reason
for this is demographic. Cinema audiences are younger than the general
population and less likely to pay attention to print reviews. Critics
might therefore, be expected to aim their reviews at the older
demographic audience and give relatively negative reviews to certain
film genres. The empirical results put forth by King (2007) are mixed
with respect to the impact of critics on box office earnings for the
U.S. box office in 2003. He finds zero correlation between critical
ratings for films and gross box office earnings when all releases are
considered because of the affinity critics have for foreign movies and
documentaries relative to the general public. For movies released on
more than 1,000 screens, critical ratings have a positive impact on
gross earnings.
Reinstein and Snyder (2000) focus on the critics Siskel and Ebert
and how their reviews impact box office success. The authors report that
the correlation between good movie reviews and high demand might be
false due to unknown quality measurements. In order to circumvent the
proposed false correlation Reinstein and Snyder apply a
"differences in differences" approach that yields a conclusion
that positive reviews have a surprisingly large and positive impact on
box office revenue. Reinstein and Snyder also report that their results
show that the power to influence consumer demand does not necessarily
lie in the entire critic population, but may lie in the hands of a few
critics.
Wallace, Seigerman, and Holbrook (1993) employ a sample of 1,687
movies released from 1956 through 1988 to investigate the relationships
between movies box office success and critic ratings. They find a poorly
rated movie will actually lose money for every positive review it
receives while a highly rated movie will continue to gain money for
every positive review it receives. Wallace, Seigerman, and Holbrook
(1993, p. 11) interpret these findings by saying that "it appears
that a bad movie has something to gain by being as trashy as possible.
... [For] a good movie, it apparently pays to strive for even greater
excellence." Ravid (1999) has also looked at movie reviews as a
source of projecting higher revenues. He concludes that the more reviews
a film receive, positive or negative, the higher revenues it will
obtain.
Although much research has supported the critic as a positive
indicator of box office success, others have shown that the critic plays
a much less important role. Levene (1992) surveyed students at the
University of Pennsylvania and concludes from her 208 useable surveys
that positive critic reviews ranked tenth, behind plot, subject, and
word-of-mouth on a list of factors that influence the decision to watch
a film. Levene's study reveals that theatre trailers and television
advertising were the two most important determinants. Faber and
O'Guinn (1984) conclude that film advertising, word-of-mouth and
critics' reviews are not important compared to the effect that
movie previews and movie excerpts have on the movie going public. Wyatt
and Badger (1984) find that negative or positive reviews have little
effect on the interest of an individual to see a movie over a mixed
review or seeing no review. Further research by Wyatt and Badger (1987)
conclude that positive reviews and reviews that contain no evaluative
adjectives, which they called non-reviews, are deemed more interesting
than a review that was negative or mixed. More recently, Wyatt and
Badger (1990) report that reviews containing high information content
about a movie raise more interest in a film than a positive review.
Research has shown a seasonal pattern in movie releases and box
office performance. Litman (1983) reports that the most important time
for a movie release is during the Christmas season. Sochay (1994)
counters this with evidence that the summer months are the optimal time
of year to release a motion picture. Sochay, referencing Litman (1983),
explains his conflicting results are due to competition during the peak
times. Sochay adds that the successful season will shift from the summer
to Christmas in different years due to film distributors avoiding strong
competition. Radas and Shugan (1998) developed a model that captures the
seasonality of the motion picture industry and apply it to the release
of thirty-one movies. The authors find that the length of a movie
release on average is not longer during the peak season but peak season
movies typically perform better at the box office. Einav (2001)
investigates seasonality in underlying demand for movies and seasonal
variation in the quality of movies. He finds that peak periods are in
the summer months and the Christmas season because distributors think
that is when the public wants to see movies and when the best movies are
released. He comments that distributors could make more money by
releasing "higher quality" movies during non-peak times
because the movie quality will build the audience and there will be less
competition than at peak times.
Film ratings passed down from the Motion Picture Association of
America (MPAA) may also influence box office performance. Many film
companies fight for a better rating, often re-shooting or re-editing
scenes multiple times in order to get their preferred ratings, most
often being PG or PG-13 because these ratings exclude virtually no one
from seeing the movie. Sawhney and Eliashberg (1996) develop a model
where the customer's decision-making process on whether to see a
movie can be broken into a two-step approach, time-to-decide and
time-to-act. The results of their study show that movies with an MPAA
rating of restricted (rated R) perform worse at the box office than
movies without a restricted rating. The analysis shows that restricted
rated movies have a higher time-to-act but have longer time-to-decide
periods than family movies. Terry, Butler, and De'Armond (2004)
verify the negative impact of the restricted rating on box office
performance, providing evidence of a penalty in excess of $10 million.
Ravid (1999) provides evidence from a linear regression model that G and
PG rated films have a positive impact on the financial success of a
film. Litman (1983) on the other hand, finds that film ratings are not a
significant predictor of financial success. Austin (1984) and Austin and
Gordon (1987) look at film ratings in an attempt to find a correlation
between ratings and movie attendance but find no significant
relationship.
Anast (1967) was the first to look at how film genre relates to
movie attendance. His results show that action-adventure films produce a
negative correlation with film attendance while films containing
violence and eroticism had a positive correlation. Litman (1983) shows
that the only significant movie genre is science fiction. Sawnhey and
Eliashberg (1996) use their two-step approach and find that the drama
genre has a slower time-to-act parameter while action movies result in a
faster time-to-decide than other movie genres. Neelamegham and
Chinatagunta (1999) employ a Bayesian model to predict movie attendance
domestically and internationally. They find that across countries the
thriller genre is the most popular, while romance genre was the least
popular.
Awards are important to every industry but few industries
experience financial compensation from an award more than the motion
picture industry. Litman (1983) shows that an Academy Award nomination
in the categories of best actor, best actress, and best picture is worth
$7.34 million, while winning a major category Academy Award is worth
over $16 million to a motion picture. Smith and Smith (1986) point out
that the power of the Academy Award explanatory variable in models
explaining patterns in movie rentals will change over time as the
effects of different Academy Awards could cause both positive and
negative financial results to a movie in different time periods. Nelson,
Donihue, Waldman, and Wheaton (2001) estimate that an Academy Award
nomination in a major category could add as much as $4.8 million to box
office revenue, while a victory can add up to $12 million. The authors
find strong evidence toward the industry practice of delaying film
releases until late in the year as it improves the chances of receiving
nominations and monetary rewards. Dodds and Holbrook (1988) look at the
impact of an Academy Award after the nominations have been announced and
after the award ceremony. The authors find that a nomination for best
actor is worth about $6.5 million, best actress is worth $7 million and
best picture is worth $7.9 million. After the award ceremony the best
actor award is worth $8.3 million, best picture is worth $27 million,
and best actress award is not statistically significant. Simonoff and
Sparrow (2000) find that for a movie opening on less than ten screens an
Academy Award nomination will increase the movies expected gross close
to 250% more than it would have grossed if it had not received the
nomination. For movies opening on more than ten screens, an Academy
Award nomination will increase the movies gross by nearly 30%.
DATA AND MODEL
Predicting the financial performance of feature films is widely
regarded as a difficult endeavor. Each film has a dual nature, in that
it is both an artistic statement and a commercial product (Sochay,
1994). Many studies have attempted to estimate the determinants of box
office performance by employing empirical models to a limited number of
high profile features. The approach of this study provides a unique
focus on the determinants of video movie rental revenue. The sample
includes 214 motion pictures with for the year 2006.
The primary source of data for this study is the Rotten Tomatoes website (rottentomatoes.com). The website is a unique rating system that
summarizes positive or negative reviews of accredited film critics into
an easy to use total percentage that is aggregated for each motion
picture. In addition to providing a system of aggregate reviews, the
website also contains information pertaining to revenue, release date,
movie rating, genre, and number of screens featuring a film each week of
release. WorldwideBoxoffice.com, Movies.com, Oscars.org,
boxofficemojo.com, imdb.com, and the-numbers.com are additional sources
of data and information.
The empirical model employed to investigate the determinants of box
office performance for this study is specified below as:
(1) [VREVENUE.sub.i] = [B.sub.0] + [B.sub.1][DBOXOFFICE.sub.i] +
[B.sub.2][FBOXOFFICE.sub.i] + [B.sub.3][CRITIC.sub.i] +
[B.sub.4][AANOM.sub.i] + [B.sub.5][RESTRICTED.sub.i] +
[B.sub.6][CHILDREN.sub.i] + [B.sub.7][SEQUEL.sub.i] +
[B.sub.8][TIME.sub.i] + [B.sub.9][RELEASE.sub.i] +
[B.sub.10][BUDGET.sub.i] + [u.sub.i],
where VREVENUE is domestic video rental and pay-per-view revenue,
DBOXOFFICE is domestic box office earnings, FBOXOFFICE is foreign box
office earnings, CRITIC is the percent approval rating for a film by an
agglomeration of film critics, AANOM is the number of Academy Award
nominations a film receives, RESTRICTED is a categorical variable for
movies with a restricted rating (Rated R), CHILDREN is a categorical
variable for movies in the genre of children's movie, SEQUEL is a
categorical variable for movies that are derived from a previously
released film, TIME is the number of weeks from domestic box office
release to video release, RELEASE is the number of theaters showing the
film during the week of wide release, and BUDGET controls for the
estimated production and promotion costs for each movie. Several
alternative model specifications were considered including control
variables for independent films, presence of an established star actor
or director, holiday release, and new release competition. Inclusion of
these variables into the model affected the standard errors of the
coefficients but not the value of the remaining coefficients or they
suffer from excessive multicollinearity with variables included in the
model. For these reasons, they are not included in the final model.
Descriptive statistics for the model variables are presented in
Table 1. The average rental revenue in the sample is $23.69 million,
with a maximum of $67.27 million (Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead
Man's Chest). The average domestic box office earnings are $42.36
million, with six movies earning more than $200 million (Pirates of the
Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, Night at the Museum, Cars, X-Men: The
Last Stand, The DaVinci Code, and Superman Returns). Average foreign box
of earnings in the sample are $45.98 lead by Pirates of the Caribbean:
Dead Man's Chest, The Da Vinci Code, and Casino Royale. Average
critical rating of the movies in the research cohort is approximately 45
percent positive with a standard deviation of 28 percent. The maximum
number of Academy Award nominations is eight by Dreamgirls. Thirty
percent of the movies in the sample have a restricted rating, 18 percent
target children, and nine percent are sequels. The average time from
domestic box office to video release is approximately 4.5 weeks. The
average release for movies in the sample reached 2,040 theaters during
the week of wide release, with Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's
Chest, Superman Returns, Mission Impossible III, and Over the Hedge
opening on over 4,000 theatres. The budget for movies in the research
sample varies from a low of $100,000 (Facing the Giants) to a high of
$270 million (Superman Returns).
DETERMINANTS OF VIDEO REVENUE
The estimated empirical relationship between the explanatory
variables and movie video revenue is presented in Table 2. Two model
specifications are put forth based on incomplete data for the BUDGET
variable. The first is the full model, which includes all 214 movies in
the sample. The second specification only includes the 120 movies that
have BUDGET information available. The full and reduced model
specifications are extremely consistent. Both models explain
approximately 60 percent of the variance in movie video revenue. None of
the independent variables have a correlation higher than 0.68
(DBOXOFFICE and FBOXOFFICE have the highest correlation), suggesting
that excessive multicollinearity is not a problem with the analysis.
Five out of the ten independent variables are statistically significant
in both specifications.
The first two variables in the model are domestic box office
(DBOXOFFICE) and foreign box office (FBOXOFFICE). The results indicate
that domestic box office has a positive and statistically significant
impact on domestic movie rental revenue but the foreign box office is
not statistically significant. The results imply that the domestic box
office serves as a complement to movie video revenue instead of a
substitute, with every $10 million in domestic box office yielding
approximately $1 million in video revenue. Movies that perform well at
the domestic box office may serve as a signal that a movie is good as an
implicit form of word of mouth. In fact, only the movie Failure to
Launch ($55.65 million video rental revenue, $88.7 million domestic box
office, $39.7 million foreign box office) was a top five video revenue
earner without being a ten domestic box office performer. Pirates of the
Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, Night at the Museum, and The Da Vinci
Code are all top five performers in both the domestic box office and
movie video revenue. A second possible explanation for the complementary
relationship between the domestic box office and the home video market
is that popular movies become a shared experience. A person that enjoys
a movie at the box office may have a propensity to share the experience
on video with relatives or friends when visiting during the holidays or
via explicit word of mouth. The small coefficient on the foreign box
office variable (0.006., t-statistic of 0.46) is somewhat surprising.
Foreign box office smashes like Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead
Man's Chest ($62.3 million in video rental revenue, $642.9 million
foreign box office) and Casino Royale ($43.4 million in video rental
revenue, $456.2 million foreign box office) have a large domestic video
following but they appear to be more of an exception than a rule. In
general, performance in the foreign market does not appear to be
significantly correlated with the domestic video rental market.
Critic is the percent approval rating for a film by a leading group
of movie critics (CRITIC). Conventional wisdom suggests that critical
reviews are extremely important to the popularity of movies, especially
in the early stages of a release. Good reviews are expected to stir
curiosity and identify quality, while poor reviews are expected to limit
the interest of the influential early adopters. More practically
speaking, the advertising agency will select favorable excerpts from
reviews and incorporate them in its media campaign to give the
impression of critical acclaim (Litman, 1983). Empirical evidence
supports the positive and significant impact critics have on the box
office as a box office predictor or influencer (Litman & Kohl, 1989;
Eliashberg & Shugan, 1997; Reinstein & Snyder, 2000; Terry,
Butler & De'Armond, 2004; and King, 2007). This study is the
first to investigate the impact of critical reviews on movie video
rental revenue. Surprisingly, the Table 2 results indicate that the
CRITIC variable is positive but not statistically significant in both
model specifications. A theoretical explanation for the results is that
critics provide a signal in the early stages of a box office release but
are insignificant by the time a film enters the video market. It is also
possible that the year 2006 is simply an anomaly year for the movie
industry. The movies, Half Nelson, Brick, Dave Chappelle's Block
Party, Catch a Fire, and The Proposition all received critical ratings
above 85 percent approval but each produced less than $5 million each in
video revenue. Alternatively, the movies, The Da Vinci Code, Click, The
Break-Up, The Pink Panther, The Benchwarmers, Date Movie, The Hills Have
Eyes, Underworld: Evolution, and Firewall are movies with critical
approval ratings below 35 percent but earning more than $45 million in
video rental revenue. Most of the movies with poor critical reviews but
high video revenue are catered to a youthful audience, providing
evidence for the King (2007) argument that movie audiences are younger
than the general population and less likely to pay attention to movie
reviews, especially print reviews.
The independent variable AANOM measures the impact of a major
industry award nomination (Academy Awards) on movie video revenue. The
positive and statistically significant coefficient associated with the
variable implies that an Academy Award nomination accentuates interest
in the rental market for movies and has a positive impact on video
revenue. Thirty-nine of the films in the research sample received one or
more academy award nominations in 2006 sample year. Noteworthy nominees
include Dreamgirls (8 nominations, $30.4 million in video rental
revenue), Babel (7 nominations, $39.6 million in video rental revenue),
The Queen (6 nominations, $35.0 million in video rental revenue), Blood
Diamond (5 nominations, $45.0 million in video rental revenue), and
Little Miss Sunshine (4 nominations, $46.3 million in video rental
revenue). It is widely believed that films that receive an Oscar
nomination possess what Rosen (1981) describes as the elusive quality of
box office appeal, the ability to attract an audience and generate a
large volume of transactions. An Oscar nomination serves as a signaling
device, indicating which films are viewed by industry experts as being
worthy of recognition. The Academy Award nomination also serves as an
indirect source of marketing. The empirical results imply that an
Academy Awards are worth approximately $1.3 million dollars per
nomination in the video rental market. The result is consistent with the
propensity for movie releases with award nominations to mention this
fact on the jacket of the video rental box.
Another element considered to factor into the financial performance
of a film is the rating assigned by the Motion Picture Association of
America. The motion picture industry established the code as a means of
giving advance information to parents and others about the theme and
treatment of films. This voluntary code was adopted to prevent stringent
forms of governmental controls. There are four possible ratings given to
films in the research sample--G (general audiences), PG (parental
guidance suggested), PG-13 (possibly unsuitable for children less than
13 years of age), and R (restricted; children not admitted unless
accompanied by an adult). The conventional wisdom is that family product
sells, while an adult theme or treatment has a limited customer base
because of age restrictions preventing access to the lucrative teenage
market. The restricted rating is often negative in previous research
related to box office revenue but the coefficient is positive in this
study of the video market. The result implies that people are more
willing to watch restricted content at home versus the movie theatre,
although this result is limited by the fact that the RESTRICTED variable
is not a statistically significant determinant of video rental revenue.
The most surprising empirical results are the negative and
statistically significant coefficients on the CHILDREN and SEQUEL
variables. One possible explanation for the surprising result is the
idea that movies for children and sequels are purchased in lieu of renting. People with small children can testify to buying some movies
for multiple viewings instead of renting. The empirical model in this
paper does not control for video sales because of a lack of data
availability for 2006 releases, which might lead to a problem with the
model specification. In fact, all five movies in the data set with more
than $100 million in sales revenue fit the sequel or children's
movie genre (Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, X-Men: The
Last Stand , Ice Age: The Meltdown, Over the Hedge, and Cars). A second
explanation is that revenue for some movies, especially sequels, is
absorbed at the box office. The motion picture industry produces the
sequel because of the built-in audience for a sequel to a popular film.
Movies like Rocky Balboa, Big Momma's House II, The Grudge II,
Clerks II, Basic Instinct II, and Santa Clause 3 might have a built in
audience of loyal fans interested in the evolving story line but a
shrinking interest by the time the movie enters the video market. A
third explanation is that there are too many sequels and movies for
children in the market resulting in the number of video losers being
greater than the number of video winners. For example, Barnyard, Flushed
Away, Curious George, Nanny McPhee, Flicka, The Ant Bully, Hoot, Miss
Potter, Santa Clause III, Phat Girlz, and Zoom are movies in the
children's genre with video revenue under $20 million.
The variable TIME measures the number of weeks separating domestic
box office from video release. The recent trend in the movie industry is
a narrowing box office to video window. The average time from box office
to video release for the 2006 data sample is 4.47 weeks, with a minimum
of 2 weeks for the movie Doogal ($7.4 million in box office revenue,
$23.5 million in video revenue). The empirical results indicate that
time from box office to video release has a negative impact on video
revenue but is not statistically significant. The negative coefficient
is influenced by the economies of scale associated with the marketing of
a new film. Much of the box office revenue of a new release is earned
within the first few weeks. Movie distributors often find it
advantageous to move to the video market quickly in order to capture
original marketing effects from the box office efforts in the video
market.
The last two variables in the empirical model are RELEASE and
BUDGET. Previous research shows a close correlation between financial
success of a film and the number of screens on which the movie is shown
during its initial launch (Einav, 2001). The opening weekend of a movie
release typically accounts for over twenty-five percent of the total
domestic box office gross revenue for a film (Simonoff & Sparrow,
2000). The positive and statistically significant coefficient on the
RELEASE variable indicates that movies with a wide release perform
better in the video market. The result can be explained by the
observation that a wide release will lead to domestic box office
success, which is an impetus to success in the video market. In
addition, movies with a release on many screens garner branding
recognition that is a precursor to success in the video market. The
BUDGET variable is positive but not statistically significant in the
model. Big budget movies with high profile movie stars, brand name
directors, expensive special effects, and large advertising budgets
might have an advantage drawing crowds at the box office but appear to
have a limited impact on the small screen of the video market. Some big
budget movies like the remake of All the King's Men ($55 million
budget, $7.2 million box office, $12.8 million in video revenue)
struggle in video market while lower budget films like The Last King of
Scotland ($6 million budget, $17.6 million box office, $31.8 million in
video revenue) find great success.
CONCLUSION
The video rental market is an important source of supplementary
income to the movie industry as a means of extending profits or
minimizing losses. This study examines the determinants of video rental
revenue for the year 2006. Regression results indicate the primary
determinants of video movie rental revenue are domestic box office
performance, academy award nominations, sequels, movies in the children
genre, and the number of theaters showing the film during the opening
week of wide release. One of the more interesting applications of the
results is the observation that an Academy Award nomination is worth an
additional $1.3 million in the video market. The coefficient associated
with critical review is positive but not statistically significant
implying that critical acclaim that is not directly associated with an
academy award has a limited impact on video rental revenue. The most
surprising results are the negative and statistically significant
coefficients on movie sequels and children's movies. Holding other
factors constant, sequels and children's movies earn $6 to $10
million less than other movies. One avenue for future research is to
include a variable in the model that controls for video sales. Sales
information is increasingly available for movies released in 2008 but
not widely available in the year 2006.
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Table 1: Summary Statistics: Domestic DVD Revenue (2006)
Variable Mean Maximum Minimum Standard Dev.
VREVENUE 23.697 67.270 0.500 15.252
DBOXOFFICE 42.365 423.271 0.845 54.486
FBOXOFFICE 45.985 642.630 0 84.361
CRITIC 0.454 0.97 0.01 0.279
AANOM 0.449 8 0 1.265
RESTRICTED 0.301 1 0 0.361
CHILDREN 0.168 1 0 0.375
SEQUEL 0.089 1 0 0.285
TIME 4.477 13.0 2.0 1.439
RELEASE 2,040 4,133 42 1,180
BUDGET 47.298 270.000 0.100 47.298
n = 214
Table 2: Determinants of Domestic DVD Revenue (2006)
Variable Full Model Reduced Model
Coefficient Coefficient
(t-statistic) (t-statistic)
Intercept 6.916 (2.18) * 9.046 (2.05) *
DBOXOFFICE 0.103 (3.06) * 0.124 (3.79) *
FBOXOFFICE 0.006 (0.46) 0.004 (0.24)
CRITIC 1.862 (0.88) 3.806 (1.16)
AANOM 1.303 (2.29) * 1.369 (1.99) *
RESTRICTED 0.671 (0.43) 0.670 (0.31)
CHILDREN -10.031 (-5.25) * -10.450 (-4.36) *
SEQUEL -6.062 (-2.43) * -6.315 (-2.28) *
TIME -0.491 (-1.08) -0.369 (-0.43)
RELEASE 0.007 (8.09) * 0.005 (3.47) *
BUDGET .002 (0.18)
Adjusted R-Square 0.644 0.588
F-Value 43.81 18.34 *
N 214 120
Note: * p<.05