Information transfers from diverse corporate events: methodological issues and findings.
Rajagopal, Sanjay
ABSTRACT
This paper presents results from research pertaining to the
industry-wide transfer of information from a diverse set of corporate
events. Early studies in this area date back to the late 1970s and early
1980s, but the literature indicates that interest in this area of
research became more widespread in the 1990s, and the subject remains a
fruitful area of study even today. This paper organizes into six
categories the results of the bulk of the intra-industry studies in
finance. More importantly, though, it discusses several methodological
issues involved in conducting such research. Finally, it highlights
areas of conflicting evidence that are therefore potential candidates
for further research.
INTRODUCTION
Following the development of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
in the 1960s and 1970s, applied research in finance trained much
attention through the 1980s on the use of "event study
methodology" to assess the information content of various corporate
events, such as stock splits and equity offerings. For the most part,
this research focused on documenting the equity valuation implications
for the firm directly affected by the event of interest. A few studies
in this decade, however, sought to widen the scope of enquiry into the
information content of firm-specific events by attempting to measure the
effects of such events on the stock prices of rival firms. Beginning in
the early 1990s, interest in this "intra-industry" perspective
gained momentum, and, the sustained stream of research seen since then
indicates that interest has not yet ebbed; the study of industry-wide
information transfers remains a fruitful area of research.
The current paper has three objectives: First, it seeks to present
the results pertaining to the diverse events that have been studied from
the intra-industry perspective with the view of impressing upon the
reader the fact that many events have valuation effects that are more
far-reaching than traditionally understood. Second, the survey seeks to
stimulate new ideas for further empirical work in the area of
information transfer. Finally, for the benefit of such research, it
highlights numerous methodological issues involved in conducting
intra-industry studies.
A BASIS FOR EXPECTING INTRA-INDUSTRY EFFECTS
As noted above, since the early 1990s, researchers have devoted
considerable attention to the measurement of a possible "ripple
effect" stemming from firm-related events that manifests itself in
contemporaneous abnormal changes in stock prices of other firms within
the same industry. In general, a development at an individual firm could
have implications for its competitors in the same resource and product
markets because the event may (1) reflect changes in the profitability
of the industry as a whole, or (2) suggest competitive shifts within the
industry.
Thus, research dealing with intra-industry effects is grounded in
the idea that firms within an industry are likely to compete in the same
resource and product markets. As such, their values will be affected
similarly by a set of common factors, or differentially by a set of
firm-specific factors. That is, if an event at one firm (the
"originating" firm) is perceived by the market to have been
occasioned by an industry-wide factor (such as a decline in market
demand), the valuation effects of that event would be in the same
direction for the originating and rival firms. On the hand, the firms
being placed in a competitive setting, if the market ascribes the event
to a firm-specific factor (such as a management problem or law suit),
the valuation effect of the event would be of an opposite sign for the
originating firm and its competitors (see, for example, Szewczyk
(1992)). As will be seen below, a diverse set of events appears to
possess industry-wide implications.
EARNINGS RELEASES AND FORECASTS
The early studies in the area of intra-industry information
transfers focused on earnings announcements and forecasts, and even
precede the steady stream of studies beginning in the 1990s. For
instance, Firth's (1976) investigation of the industry-wide impact
of earnings announcements in the United Kingdom between 1973 and 1974
constitutes one of the earliest inquiries into the existence of
intra-industry information transfers. The study, which included
announcements from four industry groupings (Breweries, Food Retailers,
Shipping, and Banks), found that during the ten trading days prior to
the announcement, the sample of securities behaved in a manner predicted
by the market model, with residuals being randomly distributed around
zero and having no cumulative impact. On the announcement day, however,
similar-type firms experienced an average excess of 2.1% or -3.7% in
their share prices depending on whether the announcement bore
"positive" or "negative" news. The residuals for 94%
to 98% of the sample firms showed the same sign on that day. In
particular, the residuals of competing firms ranged from 50% to 80% of
announcing company residuals, and were in the same direction as those of
the announcing firms. Firth concluded that the stock market used
firm-level annual earnings results to reassess share prices of rival
companies, and that virtually the entire price adjustment occurred on
the announcement day.
Foster (1982), whose sample included announcements in the Wall
Street Journal between 1963 and 1978, similarly found strong evidence of
an information transfer between the firm releasing earnings information
and other firms in its industry. Employing three alternative definitions
of an industry, namely the 4-digit Standard Industrial Classification
(SIC), the Homogeneous Line of Business, and the Dominant Firm industry
definitions, the author found that the magnitude of impact was stronger
for companies having a larger proportion of their revenues in the same
line of business as the announcing firm; roughly, these firms are among
the less diversified entities within an SIC code. For a sample of
Australian firms, Clinch and Sinclair (1987) found results similar to
Foster over the period January 1977 to December 1981; earnings releases
had a homogeneous impact on the announcing and rival firms. Further, the
magnitude of stock price effects diminished for successive earnings
announcements within the same industry.
In his attempt to examine the determinants of the industry-wide
effects of earnings reports, Bannister (1994) incorporated the
correlation between the earnings signals of announcing and rival firms,
the information content of the announcer's signal (measured by the
announcement period abnormal return), and the level of uncertainty for
the rival firms prior to the earnings announcement (measured by the size
of the firm and the standard deviation of the rival's distribution
of information signals). While the strongest association between these
factors and the abnormal returns to rival firms was observed for fourth
quarter announcements that represented bad news for the competitors, the
market reacted to bad news whenever it occurred. Good news, on the other
hand, elicited a stock price response only in the fourth quarter,
presumably because accounting numbers in this quarter were fully
audited.
In contrast to the studies mentioned above, Baginski (1987)
examined the intra-industry information transfers associated with
earnings forecasts made by management. The final sample consisted of 57
forecasts announced in the Wall Street Journal between 1978 and 1983. A
grouping of similar firms was achieved through a cluster analysis of
firms within the same 4-digit SIC code. The clustering was performed on
the basis of the estimates from a firm's single-index market model
and financial leverage. The results indicated that rival firms
experienced positive (negative) abnormal returns when the forecasts for
the announcing firm indicated positive (negative) changes in earnings.
These findings are consistent with the existence of intra-industry
information transfers from management's earnings forecasts.
The existing literature on the announcement effects of earnings
releases and forecasts clearly suggests that investors use the
information contained in these reports to evaluate the shares of other
firms in the same industry. Typically, the stock prices of the
announcing firms and their rivals are observed to change in the same
direction.
CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY ANNOUNCEMENTS
Much attention has traditionally been paid to the possibility of a
contagion effect from bankruptcies within the banking industry.
Recently, however, some researchers have demonstrated the occurrence of
this phenomenon among industrial and other non-banking firms as well.
Lang and Stulz (1992) studied the industry-wide stock price effects from
bankruptcy announcements by industrial firms between January 1970 and
December 1989. In order to increase the probability of detecting an
industry-wide effect, the study restricted its attention to bankruptcies
of large firms. Consistent with the majority of intra-industry studies,
the authors defined industry rivals as those with the same primary
4-digit SIC code in COMPUSTAT (a database compile by S&P which
contains comprehensive accounting and some market data for the firm
level). Also, the event date was identified as the day on which the
report of a Chapter 11 filing appeared in the Wall Street Journal.
The 59 bankrupt firms in the sample experienced significantly
negative abnormal returns over the four days prior to the announcement
date, and a loss of 18.93% in shareholder wealth on the filing day.
These bankruptcies initiated a dominant contagion effect for the
corresponding industries; the portfolios of industry rivals experienced
significantly negative abnormal returns over the 11 days surrounding the
event date. Thus, it appears that the average bankruptcy was caused by
industry-wide shocks rather than by a firm succumbing to competition.
However, a closer analysis of the abnormal returns to rivals indicated a
heterogeneous effect across industries, and a study of the relationship
between the abnormal returns and industry characteristics revealed that
the contagion effect was particular strong in highly levered industries.
In industries characterized by a high degree of concentration and low
leverage, on the other hand, a competitive effect prevailed, with rival
firms profiting from the distress of the bankrupt firm.
In a similar study of industry-wide effects, Cheng and McDonald
(1996) examined bankruptcy announcement effects in the airline and
railroad industries, which possess vastly different market structures.
The sample included 7 airline and 5 railroad bankruptcy announcements
over the period 1962 and 1991 that appeared in the Wall Street Journal.
Employing the event study methodology, the authors found that the
surviving airlines experienced an average abnormal return of 1.89% on
the day preceding the announcement, but the surviving railroads suffered
a significantly negative average abnormal return (of -0.89%) on Day 0.
The difference in the timing of market reaction for the two industries
may arise from the fact that the railroad bankruptcies pertain to the
early part of the sample period, when the electronic news media was not
in wide use.
The authors ascribed the positive abnormal returns for rival
airlines to the existence of barriers to entry (into city-pair markets)
and hence market power. In such an industry, the bankruptcy of a firm
would increase the market power of the surviving firms, whose stock
prices will consequently be bid up by investors. The negative abnormal
returns to surviving railroads, on the other hand, can be explained by
an immobility of assets, which makes it difficult for one railroad to
service the regions covered by a failing industry member. Furthermore,
the successful operation of the business requires cooperation among two
or more railroads. Thus, the railroad industry is characterized by
interdependencies, which imply disruptions in operation for surviving
companies when a member firm goes bankrupt.
The studies by Lang and Stulz (1992) and Cheng and McDonald (1996)
suggest that industry characteristics can play a significant role in
determining the nature of the valuation effects events have on rival
firms. Asness and Smirlock (1991), who examined the effects of a Real
Estate Investment Trust (REIT) bankruptcy, emphasized the importance of
discriminating across firm characteristics when investigating
intra-industry information transfers. An REIT must, at its inception,
define the type of assets to be purchased and the maximum leverage to be
assumed. By thus lending themselves to differentiation by portfolio
composition (i.e., as Equity, Financial, and Residual REITs), these
institutions allow an investigation of how firms within the industry
might differ in their reaction to a given announcement.
The authors studied the impact of the Residential Resources
Mortgage Investment Corporation (RES RES) bankruptcy announcement on a
sample of 35 REITs: 18 Equity, 8 Financial, and 9 Residual investment
trusts. RES RES belonged to the last category of trusts. An analysis of
the 121 day period surrounding the event revealed that the bankruptcy
announcement decreased the value and increased the perceived riskiness
of REITs; there was a negative stock price effect on the announcement
day, and a positive change in systematic risk following the event. In
particular, the study showed that these effects were limited to Residual
REITs; when studied separately, the Equity and Financial trusts showed
no abnormal returns during the event window, nor did they experience any
statistically significant change in systematic risk.
Among the Residual REITs, the authors found that the magnitude of
the abnormal return varied cross-sectionally by leverage, indicating
that the market discriminates among industry members in assessing
intra-industry effects of information arrival. The main conclusion
offered by this study was that treating rival firms as a homogeneous
sample in the examination of information transfers can provide
misleading results.
From a methodological viewpoint, it would be useful here to mention
the most recent study on the intra-industry effects of bankruptcy
announcements. Haensly et al. (2001) replicate the stratification methodology adopted by the Lang and Stulz (1992) study mentioned
earlier, but use a sample from a single legal regime. They find that the
effects of bankruptcy announcements on competitors are ambiguous, and
results are very sensitive to the debt screen employed in sample
selection. A study of the ripple effects of bankruptcies appears,
therefore, to be a potential subject for further research.
CAPITAL STRUCTURE ADJUSTMENTS
Change in capital structure is another area in which the results of
different intra-industry studies disagree. Michael Hertzel (1991) first
investigated the stock price effects on rival firms due to stock
repurchase tender offers made within the industry. Citing theoretical
models that demonstrate strategic changes in a firm's capital
structure can have implications for industry counterparts, he argued
that information about the repurchasing firm could cause the market to
reassess earnings prospects for rival firms. However, for a sample of
134 offer announcements over the period 1970 to 1984, the author found
no significant valuation effects for non-announcing firms, which
indicates that the information content of repurchase announcements
pertains mainly to the firm making the offer. These results parallel
those found by Slovin et al. (1992), who compared the intra-industry
effects of seasoned equity issues made by banks and industrials. While
no industry-wide valuation effects could be observed for common stock
issues by industrial firms, a significantly negative impact on rivals
was seen within the banking industry. The authors ascribed these
findings to the information structure of bank operations, which in their
view limits the dissemination of information necessary for the
assessment of individual bank value and riskiness.
In contrast to these studies, Szewczyk (1992) reported
significantly negative abnormal returns for the rivals of industrial
firms announcing equity and debt issues. The sample included
announcements between 1970 and 1983 for which a date could be identified
in the Wall Street Journal Index. In all, 128 common stock, 54
convertible debt, and 302 straight debt offerings were employed in the
study. Significantly negative abnormal returns were observed for both
announcing rival firms in the case of equity and convertible debt
offerings. For the issue of straight debt, however, a significant
(negative) effect was seen only for the industry rivals. These findings
indicate that the market draws inferences about industry prospects from
announcements of equity and debt offerings.
Unlike Hertzel (1991) and Slovin et al. (1992), Akhigbe and Madura
(1999) focused exclusively on the ripple effects of bank stock
repurchases, since on account of capital requirements and other
regulatory constraints, events at banks are likely to constitute a
special case. And in contrast to the two earlier studies, these authors
did find that repurchases of stock by banks have a significantly
positive effect on both the repurchasing banks and their industry
rivals.
Erwin and Miller (1998), on the other hand, find that while the
announcement of open market repurchases has a positive effect on the
announcing firm, it has a negative effect on rival firms. Thus, these
authors discover a net "competitive" rather than a net
"contagion" effect from stock repurchase announcements.
Further, they find that this competitive effect is stronger in those
industries where competition is less and in which the degree of
similarity between the announcing firm and its rivals is lower.
DIVIDEND CHANGES, INITIATIONS AND OMISSIONS
Firth (1996) studied the existence of ripple effects from dividend
adjustments. He hypothesized that dividend changes by one firm could
possess valuation implications for other firms in the same industry
since management may revise dividends to signal changes in future
earnings and cash flows from: (1) anticipated industry-wide changes, or
(2) perceived shifts in competition or market share within the industry.
Thus, performance and operating strategy linkages among firms may cause
investors to apply information releases of one company to its
competitors.
The study included a total of 543 dividend increases and 106
dividend cuts between 1980 and 1991, and measured the impact of these
changes on "rival firms" defined as those sharing the 4-digit
SIC code of the dividend change firm. The author employed standard event
study methodology to assess the market reaction to dividend changes;
abnormal returns were calculated as the difference between actual and
expected returns, with the latter being generated by estimating the
market model using daily returns on the CRSP equally-weighted market
index. Firth found that non-announcers on average were re-valued in the
same direction as the announcing firm, though by a smaller magnitude.
Thus, dividend increases (decreases) by one firm constituted good news
(bad news) for that firm as well as for the other members in its
industry. This observation is consistent with dividend revisions being
based on perceived changes in industry-wide factors rather then
anticipated alterations in market share. In addition, Firth tested
whether the dividend "surprise" (the abnormal return of the
announcing firm) was related to any changes in earnings forecasts of
non-reporting firms. He found the unexpected revisions in analysts'
earnings forecasts of non-reporting firms to be directly related to the
abnormal stock returns of the dividend change announcer. Overall, these
results led Firth to conclude that dividend changes by one firm carried
informational value for other firms in the same industry.
Laux et al. (1998) studied the intra-industry effects of large
dividend revisions, and found a heterogeneous effect on rivals; rivals
that are unlikely to be threatened by competitive realignments
experience a revaluation in the same direction as the announcing firm,
while those likely to be affected by such realignment do not experience
statistically significant stock price effects. Finally, Howe and Shen (1998) showed that dividend initiations are purely form-specific events,
while Caton et al.(2003) documented the possibility of ripple effects
from dividend omissions.
CORPORATE TAKEOVERS, MERGERS AND RESTRUCTURING
In an effort to test the hypothesis that horizontal mergers have
collusive, anticompetitive effects, Eckbo (1983) measured the stock
price effects of merger proposal announcements for merging firms and
their horizontal rivals. The collusion hypothesis suggests that a
horizontal merger should have a positive valuation effect on the rival
firms, since the costs of monitoring any existing collusive agreement
will decline with a reduction in the number of independent producers in
the industry. Further, rivals outside the collusive agreement should
also earn positive abnormal returns since they can free-ride on higher
product prices. The sample included a total of 259 merger proposals over
the period 1963 to 1978. Horizontal rivals were identified on the basis
of the 4-digit SIC code, and abnormal returns around the Wall Street
Journal announcement date were calculated using the market model. Even
though for a large subset of events rivals experienced positive stock
price effects, the behavior of abnormal returns over the merger proposal
and subsequent antitrust complaint announcements did not support the
collusion hypothesis. Instead, the overall results were consistent with
the argument that rivals enjoy positive abnormal returns at the merger
proposal announcement because of the potential increase in productive
efficiency; the author suggests, for instance, that the announcement can
reveal information which allows rivals to imitate the technological
innovation prompting the acquisition.
Mitchell and Mulherin (1996) obtained similar results in their test
of the proposition that industry fundamentals contribute to takeover and
restructuring activity. For the period 1982 to 1989, the authors found
distinct patterns in the rate and clustering of these activities across
51 industries. A link between industry shocks and takeover activity
implies that the announcement of a takeover at one firm should elicit a
positive stock price response from other members of the industry. For
607 announcements of takeover or restructuring activity, significantly
positive abnormal returns were observed for rival firms in the event
month. As in the case of Eckbo (1983), the authors did not interpret
these spillover effects as evidence of anticipated market power. Since
industry fundamentals appeared to drive the takeover and restructuring
activity, the more benign explanation for the positive abnormal returns
could be offered, that investors anticipated ongoing industry-wide
restructuring activity.
A significantly positive valuation effect on rival firms was also
observed for the 128 going-private transactions between 1980 and 1988
studied by Slovin et al. (1991). In contrast to the case of mergers and
takeovers, however, this impact on rivals could not be attributed to
operating synergy or market power because going-private transactions do
not involve a consolidation of firms. Instead, the authors suggested
that buyout bids revealed information about future cash flows in the
industry.
In another study, Slovin et al. (1995) compared the information
content of three mechanisms of restructuring: (1) equity carve-outs,
which are public offerings of subsidiary equity; (2) spin-offs, which
distribute subsidiary equity to the owners of the parent firm through
pro rata stock dividends; and (3) asset sell-offs, which are sales of
subsidiaries to third parties. The objective of this study was to
identify the sources of gain to the parent firm conducting such
restructuring activity by focusing on the contemporaneous valuation
effects on industry rivals. These rivals were defined as firms belonging
to the same 4-digit SIC code as the announcing firm. For a sample period
1980 through 1991, the authors found that equity carve-outs were
associated with significantly negative abnormal returns to other
industry members. This observation is consistent with two views: that
the equity carve-out signals over-valued industry assets, or that it
reflects an improved competitive position for the restructured parent.
An analysis of equity betas for rivals revealed no shifts round the
event dates, suggesting that the observed stock price effects were not
an outcome of changes in industry systematic risk.
In contrast to equity carve-outs, spin-off announcements elicited a
positive stock price response from industry rivals, indicating that
these events constitute a favorable signal about industry value. In
particular, managers of the parent company believe the unit to be
undervalued, and are therefore unwilling to issue equity in the
subsidiary as a method of restructuring. This action therefore
constitutes favorable information for rivals if the unit has
industry-common elements. Asset sell-offs, the third method of
restructuring, did not have any intra-industry valuation effects.
More recently, Akhigbe and Madura (1999; 2001) have examined the
industry-wide effects of bank acquisition announcements and insurance
company mergers. In the first study, they found that bank acquisition
announcements caused, on average, a significantly positive revaluation
in the equity of rival firms, though the impact was conditioned by
firm-specific characteristics. In the second study, they once again
found a positive effect of insurance company merger announcements, on
both the announcing firm and on industry rivals, lending credence to the
idea that mergers act as signals to the market in the face of
information asymmetry.
The final section below provides a brief account of miscellaneous
studies which further support the view that a variety of developments at
one firm can have important implications for other industry members.
These studies consider such events as strikes, bond rating changes,
stock splits, layoffs, and announcements of R&D expenditures.
OTHER EVIDENCE OF INTRA-INDUSTRY EFFECTS
The work by Kramer and Vasconcellos (1996) belongs to the class of
studies that examines the linkages between non-financial resource
markets and stockholder wealth. The authors extended the inquiry into
the economic effects of strike activity by measuring the industry-wide
stock price impact of strikes. The study included manufacturing firms
operating in highly concentrated industries which experienced a strike
by 1,000 or more workers between January 1982 and July 1990. The authors
limited their definition of industry rivals to a maximum of the top four
competitors. The final sample consisted of 21 strikes across 9
industries, and 41 non-struck competitors. Standard event study
methodology indicated that the struck firm suffered a statistically
insignificant decline in market value over the 30 trading days prior to
the strike, but experienced a post-strike increase in value in the
post-strike period. These results suggest that concessions made by labor
exceeded the quid pro quo costs (such as profit sharing and layoff protection).
The gains to non-struck competitors in the pre-strike period were
also not statistically significant. However, over the month following
the strike, like the struck firms, these rivals experienced positive
abnormal returns, suggesting that investors expected the competitors to
secure similar concessions from labor. During the strike period, the
struck firms suffered a decline in market value of 1.9%, but these
losses were not captured as gains by rivals; the latter earned abnormal
returns not statistically different from zero. The authors attributed
this absence of spillover during the strike period to the struck
firm's ability to stockpile inventory, shift production to other
facilities, and subcontract production.
Zantout and Tsetsekos (1994) investigated the nature of information
conveyed by the announcement of increases in R&D expenditures. Such
an announcement could indicate to investors that the announcing firm
will possess a strategic advantage over the competition from being the
first to innovate. Alternatively, market participants may anticipate
that rivals will benefit from technology spillovers. The authors
conducted an event study to test these hypotheses. Rivals were defined
as those operating in the same 4-digit SIC code and which were of the
same size (in terms of sale) as the announcing firm. For 114
announcements made by 71 firms between June 1979 and December 1990, the
authors found that the announcing firms experienced positive abnormal
returns while their rivals suffered negative abnormal returns at the
announcement of the planned increase in expenditures. These findings
support the hypothesis that first movers enjoy an innovation-induced
competitive advantage.
In their study of stock split announcements, Tawatnuntachai and
D'Mello (2002) found that the event had a generally positive
valuation effect on rival firms, and that this effect is associated with
changes in earnings levels (but not changes in earnings volatility) for
the rival firms. With regard to corporate downsizing, Sun and Tang (1998) found a negative effect of such announcements on both originating
and rival firms. Finally, Akhigbe et al. (1997) found that bond rating
downgrades were associated with negative stock price effects for both
the re-rated firm and a subset of industry counterparts that were more
closely related to the re-rated firm. Thus, the activity of rating
agencies such as Moody's and S&P appear to have implications
not only for the firm for which they supply the reclassified rating, but
also for other firms in the same industry.
CONCLUSION
A review of the finance literature indicates a sustained interest
among academicians in the possibility of industry-wide effects from a
diverse set of corporate events. Traditionally considered to be
firm-specific, such events as capital structure changes, dividend
adjustments, stock splits, and rating reclassifications now are known to
have the potential to convey industry-wide information to capital
markets. The existing research on intra-industry information effects
sheds light on numerous economic and regulatory issues. For instance,
the emerging evidence on the far-reaching effects of re-rating activity
should be of considerable value to the current debate on the regulation
of credit rating agencies and the legally sanctioned barriers to entry
in the rating industry.
The evidence provided in this paper also suggests that there is
some ambiguity with regard to the spillover effects of some events; for
instance, existing studies do not agree on the industry-wide
implications of bankruptcy announcements and capital structure
adjustments. The potential for research still exists in these and
additional areas. Arguably, one of the more challenging areas of study
in the intra-industry information arena is the identification of
"rational" and "irrational" contagion; that is, in
the instances where rivals are found to be affected in the same
direction as the originating firm, there is an evident need to be able
to ascertain whether or not the market was justified in generalizing the
information provided by the event from the firm to the industry as a
whole.
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Sanjay Rajagopal, Montreat College