A real options approach for entrepreneurs making decisions under uncertainty.
Sale, R. Samuel ; Atinc, Guclu
COMMON ANALYSES
Net Present Value Analysis
NPV analysis seeks to determine the present value of a stream of
future cash flows by discounting them based on a discount rate and the
timing of the cash flows. These discounted cash flows are then summed
together. If this summation is positive, NPV analysis suggests that a
project should be undertaken. Conversely if the value is negative, NPV
analysis suggests that the project not be undertaken.
Two fundamental ideas behind the discounting of a stream of cash
flows are that more money is preferred to less money and that receiving
money sooner is preferred to receiving money later. Because a rational
person would rather have a dollar today than a dollar tomorrow, that
person would only find an investment opportunity appealing if he or she
expects to receive more than one dollar tomorrow in exchange for the
investment of one dollar today.
The amount of the additional return, above the one-dollar initial
investment, required to make an investment appealing varies from
situation to situation based in part on the financial status of the
investor. This discount rate is often set equal to the weighted average
cost of capital (WACC). An entrepreneur's WACC is essentially the
interest that he or she is charged on an "average" dollar. In
order for an investment to be appealing, each dollar invested should
have an expected return greater than the amount of interest that the
entrepreneur pays on his or her debt. Otherwise, the entrepreneur would
be better off to "invest" in the lowering of debt rather than
invest in the project in question. The calculation of the WACC is
concerned not only with interest paid on debt, but equity as well. The
above explanation can be extended to consider dividend payments on
equity, but the result is the same: Regardless of the source of capital,
positive expected returns less than the WACC are not generally
considered appealing.
Net Present Value Analysis, Uncertainty, and Risk
Critics of NPV state that it is inappropriate for use under
uncertainty situations. Before this criticism is addressed, it is
important to distinguish between uncertainty and risk. When a decision
maker "lacks knowledge of what all the alternatives are, what the
outcomes associated with each alternative are, or cannot assign
probabilities to each of the possible outcomes," then the decision
maker is facing uncertainty. When a decision maker "faces more than
one alternative but knows all of the possible outcomes associated with
each of the alternatives, and can assign probabilities to each possible
outcome," then the decision maker is facing risk (Kroll, 2007, p4).
Critics of NPV analysis use two main arguments stating its
inappropriateness for use in uncertainty situations. The first concerns
how uncertainty is captured in the model. In NPV analysis, this is
addressed using the discount rate. A firm's WACC is often used as
the discount rate, but this is still more appropriate for decision
making under risk than decision making under uncertainty. By definition,
in uncertainty situations it may not be possible to estimate all
potential cash flows and the probabilities of each of the cash flows
occurring. Gilbert (2004, p49) makes this point and also points out that
the discount rate is based on the variance of the cash flows and thus
ignores skew and kurtosis.
The second, and more common, argument against the use of NPV
analysis under uncertainty concerns the ability of management to respond
to uncertainty over time. NPV analysis does not normally consider
learning on the part of management or the impact of changes to the
environment during the life of a project. This includes
management's reaction to changes as uncertainties are resolved, as
well as major changes to the business environment (Afuah, 2003, p231).
Because NPV analysis inappropriately models uncertainty and ignores
the ability of the entrepreneur to respond to uncertainty over time, it
systematically undervalues investment opportunities where there are high
levels of uncertainty and management has the ability to respond to this
uncertainty throughout the life of the project (Kogut and Kulatilaka,
1994, p52; Afuah, 2003, p231; Gilbert, 2004 p49-50; Wu and Tseng, 2006,
p314; Wang and Hwang, 2007, p247). In other words, when management has
considerable flexibility, NPV analysis consistently underestimates the
value of a project because it ignores this flexibility.
Valuation of investment projects is a challenging activity for all
types of businesses. NPV analysis does not adequately consider the value
of flexibility, a key to the logic behind real options. In today's
dynamic environment, uncertain situations require rapid reaction to
sudden changes. This makes NPV analysis increasingly inappropriate for
decision-making under uncertainty.
Options, Real Options Pricing, and an Explanation of the Negative
Bias
Options exist whenever a person has the right but not the
obligation to engage in some activity. For example, a stock option gives
a person the right but not the obligation to buy stock at a particular
price. Real options are so named because they are concerned with real as
opposed to financial assets. Real options are associated with the
flexibility that management has in dealing with uncertainty. All else
being equal, an entrepreneurial venture is more valuable if it does not
limit the entrepreneur's flexibility. Real options pricing is the
name of a collection of techniques that seek to determine the value of
the flexibility that is associated with real options.
Any valuation method that ignores management flexibility implicitly
assigns all real options a value of zero. This leads to a definite
negative bias when there are high levels of uncertainty and management
has the ability to respond to this uncertainty throughout the life of
the project (Kogut and Kulatilaka, 1994, p52; Afuah, 2003, p231;
Gilbert, 2004 p49-50; Wu and Tseng, 2006, p314; Wang and Hwang, 2007,
p247). Valuation methods, such as the internal rate of return and the
Black-Scholes option pricing method, share this limitation. In order for
a methodology to be appropriate for use under uncertainty, it must more
adequately address flexibility.
LITERATURE REVIEW
The following literature review is divided into three sections. The
first section discusses NPv analysis and other methods that are
appropriate for decision-making under risk. The second section presents
a real options approach that is appropriate for decision-making under
uncertainty. The final section presents a review of several recent
conceptual and theoretical studies that are related to the use of real
options pricing and entrepreneurial decision-making.
Pricing Methods Appropriate under Risk
one example of decision-making under risk is the management of a
retirement fund designed for slow and steady growth. Here the investor
has a wealth of historical data with which to predict the probabilities
of various outcomes and takes on a rather passive role as manager. Such
risk situations are not entirely confined to financial investment but
may be found in real investment as well. For example, imagine a
contractor who is about to begin construction on his twentieth
McDonald's. Although the contractor was probably making decisions
under uncertainty when he began construction of his first
McDonald's, it could be argued that he is working under risk now.
One popular technique for valuing assets under risk is NPV
analysis. In a pure risk situation, numbers can be assigned to potential
outcomes and probabilities can be assigned to the likelihood of each
outcome. NPV requires the decision maker to know all cash flows, the
timing of these cash flows, and the discount rate. NPV analysis assumes
that the amount and timing of all cash flows are known with certainty.
The discount rate is used to account for risk. All else being equal, a
higher discount rate will result in a reduction in the present value of
distant cash flows. This is the mechanism by which NPV analysis models
the time value of money.
Another valuation method suitable for use under risk is the
internal rate of return (IRR) method. The IRR method uses the same basic
arithmetic function as NPV analysis. The difference between these two
methods is which variable is unknown. In the NPV method, the discount
rate is given and the NPV calculated. In the IRR method, the NPV is set
equal to zero and the discount rate determined. Gould (1972) compares
NPV to IRR methods and discusses the relative benefits of NPV. The major
drawback of the IRR method relative to NPV is that IRR can sometimes
generate multiple solutions to the same problem.
Another valuation method is the Black-Scholes option pricing
method. It is probably the most well known method of valuing financial
options. The Black-Scholes option pricing method was developed to
determine the value of European call options. A European option can only
be exercised on a particular date as opposed to an American option that
can be exercised at any time up to a particular date. A call option
gives one the right to buy a stock at a particular predetermined price
regardless of the market price of the stock. The Black-Scholes
option-pricing method is valuable for pricing European call options but
requires several assumptions to be made which are seldom justified when
trying to determine the value of real options (Gilbert, 2004, p51).
Despite the fact that it is an options-pricing method, the Black-Scholes
method is more appropriate for risk situations than uncertainty
situations. In this way, it is more closely related to NPV and IRR than
it is to real options pricing methods. This is not surprising because
the Black-Scholes option pricing method was designed to value financial
options as opposed to real options.
NPV, IRR, and the Black-Scholes method are powerful financial
tools. However, they are tools that are appropriate for use under risk,
not uncertainty. They also more appropriate when the decision maker is a
passive investor rather than an entrepreneur (Afuah, 2003, p231). Here a
passive investor is one who can choose to buy or sell an asset but who
has no control over the management of the asset. This is opposed to an
entrepreneur who assumes managerial responsibility over the asset and
thus can actively manipulate events in an effort to maximize his or her
wealth.
Unfortunately, there are many examples of NPV being used to assess
values under uncertainty. Remer et al (1993) report results of a survey
on Fortune 500 companies about their use of valuation techniques. These
results show that 97% of the companies used NPV method for investment
decisions in 1991. Johnson, Smythe and Fulmer (2000, p60) describe NPV
as "an extremely accurate and useful tool" for use in
selecting projects in an uncertain environment. There is no doubt that
NPV and the other valuation methods are useful. However, the assumptions
of these methods are that decision makers have far better information
than is realistic for entrepreneurs. The methods discussed above are
appropriate for use under risk, not uncertainty.
Real Options Analysis under Uncertainty
If NPV analysis is inappropriate for use under uncertainty, what
methods are appropriate? The answer to this question is important to
entrepreneurs who face uncertainty every day. There are several real
options analysis methodologies present in the literature. The purpose of
this section is not to exhaustively review these methods. Instead, most
of the real options pricing methods are discussed only in general terms.
In addition, a recommended method is discussed in detail.
Some real options analysis methodologies are based on economic
models. Two examples are Dixit (1992) and Wu and Tseng (2006). Dixit
(1992) examines the value of the option to wait to invest by developing
an economic model that relates investment hurdle values to the options
associated with waiting to invest. Wu and Tseng (2006) use an economic
model to examine the value of patents as options. Another approach that
is sometimes used for real options analysis is game theory. Grenadier
and Wang (2007) use a game theory approach to investigate time
inconsistent preference of entrepreneurs. Another technique that has
been used is fuzzy logic. Wang and Hwang (2007) develop a fuzzy logic
methodology for determining whether to invest in a particular venture.
One problem that all of these methodologies share to a greater or lesser
degree is that their results depend on the particular structure or
assumptions of the model and are not likely to be generalizable.
Seppa and Laamanen (2001) use what is essentially a combination of
NPV analysis and decision trees. The authors describe this as a binomial lattice of risk free hedge portfolios that are discounted using the risk
free rate of return. A binomial lattice for a particular investment is
similar to a decision tree where every period the asset's value has
a certain chance of increasing and a certain chance of decreasing. A
risk free hedge portfolio for a particular asset contains that asset as
well as financial options whose value varies inversely with the value of
the asset in such a way that the value of the portfolio as a whole does
not depend on which state of nature occurs. Seppa and Laamanen use data
from 421 Us venture capital transactions to compare the predictive
ability of traditional NPV analysis to that of their binomial model.
They find that the binomial model generates risk return profiles that
are more accurate than traditional methods.
Cave and Minty (2004) present a more in-depth methodology that
consists of nine activities. These activities are as follows: think
strategically, value risk exposure, identify major milestones, identify
decisions and uncertainties in each phase, calculate passive NPV,
identify available real options, obtain additional data as necessary,
determine the expanded NPV, and perform sensitivity analysis. Six of
these activities are classified as real options thinking. The other
three are classified as real options analysis. The activities, as well
as the goals to be attained by each are included in Figure 1.
Conceptual and Theoretical Studies:
This section describes articles that discus current conceptual and
theoretical issues surrounding real options pricing. The purpose of this
section is to make the reader more familiar with real options thinking,
a critical component of Cave and Minty (2004)'s method.
Kogut and Kulatilaka (1994) point out that although many real
options are inherent in an investment--for example an investor generally
has the right to delay the start of an investment or abandon an
investment--some of the most valuable options are not inherent. These
options must be designed into a project. Kogut and Kulatilaka term this
type of proactively generated options as "platform
investments." An example of a platform investment is when a process
is designed with more flexibility than is currently required. The
authors describe platform investments as future oriented options. They
argue that in many industries competitive forces require the speedy
incorporation of new methods, techniques, and infrastructure in order
for a firm to remain competitive. They further point out that many of
these new practices would be rejected if decisions were based on NPV
analysis. This seeming contradiction is based on the idea that
investments are often required so that firms are able to react
competitively when opportunities arise. The authors suggest that part of
the problem with current practices is that managers are often judged by
short-term performance and thus are more inclined to be myopic and that
this myopic viewpoint leads to under-investment in truly innovative
products and processes.
According to Cassiman and Ueda (2006, p262), "entrepreneurs in
small innovative firms tend to come from large established firms in the
industry." They go on to state that these entrepreneurs unusually
conceive of their innovations while they are working for an established
firm and only start their own firms after the parent organization
decides not to develop the innovation. Cassiman and Ueda investigate why
established firms may choose not to commercialize an innovation while
entrepreneurial start-up companies choose to do so. They make two
important assumptions. First, it is assumed that a firm has a limited
capacity for commercializing innovations. Second, it is assumed that the
transfer of an innovation from an established firm to a start-up firm is
frictionless. When these assumptions hold, an established firm may
choose not to commercialize an innovation even if it is likely to be
profitable. Essentially, an established firm may choose not to
commercialize an innovation that is expected to be profitable because it
does not fit with the existing capabilities of the firm. This does not
occur for start-up companies because they are assumed to have equal fit
with all potential new innovations. The assumption of frictionless
transfer implies that, in this case, the established firm will forego
commercializing the innovation because the total profit across both
firms is greater if they allow the start-up to commercialize the
ill-fitting innovation while they concentrate on innovations with better
fit (p263). Based on these assumptions, they make the following
generalizations: the innovations commercialized by established firms
tend to exhibit greater fit, higher levels of cannibalization of
existing demand, and lower profits than innovations commercialized by
start-up firms.
Dixit (1992) discusses a phenomenon faced by foreign investors in
the US during the 1980s. At the beginning of 1980s, American currency
appreciated tremendously and foreign firms rapidly invested in US. These
firms were not that fast to react when dollar depreciated at the end of
the decade. Dixit relates hurdle rates required for investment in a
project to the value of the option to wait to invest. In doing so, Dixit
suggests that the slowness of a market to move to equilibrium may be a
rational response to uncertainty. This investment in the US can be
thought of as a platform as described by Kogut and Kulatilaka (1994).
Lee et al (2007) approaches a different conceptual issue. They use
a real options perspective to discuss the impact of entrepreneur
friendly bankruptcy laws. They make the argument that when bankruptcy
laws are less harsh, entrepreneurs are more willing take risks and
invest. They state that this increases economic development and
diversity, and benefits society in general. In order to stimulate this
development they make five suggestions. They recommend against automatic
firing of management after filing for bankruptcy. They recommend a
reorganization option. They recommend the opportunity for an automatic
stay of assets. They recommend that owners have the opportunity of a
fresh start in the case of liquidation. Finally, they recommend that the
bankruptcy procedure be handled in a timely manner.
Grenadier and Wang (2007) discuss time inconsistent preference of
entrepreneurs. They cite several studies that when payoffs are far away,
people are more patient than they are when they are closer in. They
suggest that there are two opposing forces that impact the timing on any
investment. The first is the desire to wait for uncertainty to resolve
itself. This is associated with the value of the option to wait to
invest. They say that the second force is the desire to invest early,
which is driven by time inconsistent preferences. The authors make a
conceptual distinction between naive and sophisticated entrepreneurs.
The authors describe naive entrepreneurs as believing (falsely) that, in
the future, they will make decisions in order to obtain optimality as
defined by their preferences today. The authors describe sophisticated
entrepreneurs as recognizing that, in the future, they will make
decisions in an attempt to obtain optimality as defined by their
preferences in the future.
McGrath (1996) uses options theory to explain how successful
entrepreneurs counter the "twin liabilities of newness and
smallness." The author describes starting entrepreneurs as using
social capital to obtain required resources. The authors point out that
this use of personal relationships to obtain resources at reduced costs
results in asset parsimony. They further point out that asset parsimony
is a key element in flexibility. Flexibility and the limitation of loss
are, in turn, key elements of real options theory.
Leslie and Michaels (1997) begin by discussing the importance of
thinking in terms of options rather than strictly in terms of NPV. They
relate the six variables used by the Black-Scholes method to six levers
that can be used to manipulate the value of real options. The authors
define the value of the real options as being positively related to the
time to expiration, uncertainty of expected cash flows, present value of
expected cash flows, and the risk free interest rate. They define them
as being negatively related to the present value of fixed costs and the
value lost over the duration of the option. The authors then present
advice for managing options proactively so as to increase their value.
This advice is included in Figure 2.
Cave and Minty (2004) describe the real option valuation process as
including nine broad activities. Six of these activities are conceptual
in nature (real options thinking) and the other three are computational (real options evaluation). This methodology is a framework that subsumes
some of the other methods discussed. For example, the advice given by
Leslie and Michaels (1997) concerning proactive management of options is
very similar to some of the objectives of the first two activities
(think strategically, value risk exposure) of Cave and Minty's
method. The next to last step of Cave and Minty's method is to
determine the strategic NPV. One method of calculating the strategic NPV
is presented by Seppa and Laamanen (2001). This holistic consideration
of both options thinking and options analysis is very important.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
While there is no real question that entrepreneurs should consider
the real options associated with the deferment of an investment,
O'Brien et al (2003) investigate whether or not entrepreneurs
actually do consider these real options. Their study is not concerned
with the particulars of the real option pricing techniques used by
members of the sample, but rather is concerned with whether or not the
decisions (however they were arrived at) agree with the stated theory.
In this respect, O'Brien et al appear to be testing what Cave and
Minty (2004) would call real options thinking. Overall, O'Brien et
al find that entrepreneurs do behave in accordance with real options
pricing theory. In particular, they find a negative relationship between
uncertainty and entry, and find that this relationship is moderated by
the level of irreversibility of the project. In other words, if all else
is equal entrepreneurs are less likely to invest if uncertainty is
higher and this relationship is stronger when in the investment requires
a large sunk cost. These effects are statistically significant after
controlling for various industry, firm, and individual characteristics.
Cave and Minty (2004) use a series of hypothetical situations to
empirically investigate how closely entrepreneurs follow a real options
approach when making decisions. They also compare and contrast the
entrepreneurs' decision-making processes with that of
administrators by presenting the same set of hypothetical situations to
a sample from each group. Both sets of subjects were able to identify
real options but neither was consistently able to calculating the
strategic NPV. This suggests that entrepreneurs do not understand real
options analysis or are not able to integrate it effectively into their
real options thinking.
Cave and Minty (2004) present a method that structures real options
thinking and incorporates real options analysis into this framework.
Please refer to Figure 1. The ability to think in terms of real options
is critically important to entrepreneurs. Therefore, our first
recommendation is that entrepreneurs should use the method presented by
Cave and Minty or a similar method for decision making under
uncertainty. Two of the real options thinking activities described by
Cave and Minty are think strategically and value risk exposure. In their
discussion of ways of proactively managing options, Leslie and Michaels
(1997) discuss these activities at length. These two articles are
recommended to interested entrepreneurs.
There is evidence that successful entrepreneurs understand the
importance of real options thinking (O'Brien et al, 2003). This
understanding may be instinctive or learned over time, because many
business curricula devote more time to NPV than real options. This is
demonstrated by evidence that entrepreneurs are unable to calculate the
value of real options (Cave and Minty, 2004). Therefore, it is
recommended that business curricula for all business majors should place
greater emphasis on teaching the basics of real options thinking. Also,
curricula for management, finance, and entrepreneurship students should
place greater emphasis on teaching real options analysis and the
incorporation of real options analysis in real options thinking.
APPENDIX--AN ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
The conceptual issues discussed above may be more understandable if
accompanied by an illustrative example. The example problem follows the
method recommended by Cave and Minty (2004). The first step of the
process is think strategically. In this step, the decision maker must
assess the general environment, identify opportunities, and determine
the feasibility of any opportunities that are identified as well as any
threats to implementation.
This appendix relates the real options pricing method suggested by
Cave and Minty to the decision of the SG Corporation to globalize. The
SG Corporation is a fictitious construction chemical producer located in
Orlando, Florida. The company is specialized in production of cement
additives, mortars and grouts. The product line consists of seven types
of cement additives, three types of mortars for floor and wall
insulation, and two types of grouts for tile and ceramic floor covering.
Concrete chemicals is roughly a six billion dollar industry, and the SG
Corporation holds eighth position in the market in terms of revenue with
$200 million in annual revenues and $12 million profit in 2006. Although
the SC Corporation has been profitable since its formation in 1979,
recent developments in the US construction industry are causing the
executives some concern. CEO Jack Vanegor constantly argues with Board
of Directors about the rapid decreases in profits. The board is not
happy with the current situation and is seriously considering the sale
of the company to a larger competitor. Mr. Vanegor on the other hand
insists that the temporary slump in US construction industry can be
mitigated by turning the SG Corporation into an international firm.
The competition has already penetrated markets in Europe and Asia,
but the CEO is confident that market in the Middle East is large and
growing sufficiently to make the investment in globalizing the SC
Corporation worthwhile. Currently, members of his staff are scouting Egypt and Kuwait for a viable location to build a factory. Mr. Vanegor
wants them to learn about all aspects of the investment opportunities in
these two countries including labor, energy, legal environment,
infrastructure, and taxation. The Executive Vice Presidents of Finance
and Production have been working in this direction for the past three
months. Figure 3 comes from their feasibility study.
Management has performed a SWOT analysis to identify internal
strengths and weakness and external opportunities and threats to the
globalization strategy. They find that the major strength of SG
Corporation is the ability to react to sudden changes due its size. On
the other hand, the major weakness is the lack of support from the
shareholders due to recent developments. Vanegor is well aware of the
arising opportunities in Middle East construction industry; however, the
Middle East is known as the boiling point of the world where there are
strong anti-American sentiments. As an American company, this is the
biggest threat to the SG Corporation expanding there. Competition in the
region is light, and the CEO is confident about the decision to
globalize.
In any decision-making process, the ability to identify risks is a
key to success. The entrepreneur's level of influence and control
over the identified risk is also important for assigning values to the
risks the company faces. Cave and Minty (2004) identify this as the
second step in the real options pricing methodology. Leslie and Micheals
(1997, p.16-17) suggest four ways of applying real-options to
investments. They recommend that entrepreneurs emphasize opportunities,
enhance leverage, maximize rights, and minimize obligations. Management
has to identify the several potential risks associated with the
globalization project. These are listed in Figure 4. Many of these risks
are beyond the control of management. However, Mr. Vanegor has reminded
management that some of the risks can be influenced by the decisions of
management.
Identification of the major milestones is the third step suggested
by Cave and Minty (2004). In order to divide the projects into separate
phases, management has identified the critical phases of the investment
opportunity. The team came up with these critical phases of the project:
legal formation of the entity in the specific country, acquisition of
land for the factory, preparation of the factory construction project,
collection and evaluation of bids for the construction, construction,
acquisition of the factory equipment, formation of a distribution
channel in the region, organization of marketing activities in the
region, consideration of quality control issues, and, launch.
Identification of decisions, events, and uncertainties in each of
these steps is the fourth step in the process. The first phase of the
project is the legal formation of the entity in the specific country.
Both countries are willing to attract foreign investments so risks in
this phase are considered minimal. Management has not identified any
options in this phase of the project.
The second phase of the project is the acquisition of land for the
factory. Management has some concern that once a facility location is
selected, the company may become a target for terrorist attack.
Management has decided that the risk of terrorist attack is something
that they have no control over. Because they have no ability to respond
to this uncertainty, management has no real options associated with this
phase.
The third phase of the project is the preparation of the factory
construction project. This preparation includes the development of
blueprints and schedules for the construction project. The SG
Corporation can either have the project prepared by a US firm or use one
of the construction companies from the Middle East that offer this
service. The use of a local company from the region may lead to
goodwill. Recall that the construction companies are the potential
customers of the SG Corporation. This goodwill may reduce the risk of
not being accepted by local companies. However, Mr. Vanegor is concerned
with management's ability to assess the credentials and determine
if a Middle Eastern construction company can do a credible job on such
an important (to the SG Corporation) project. Mr. Vanegor has expressed
concerns that using a regional preparer would increase the risk of
delays in construction. Management has the option of using a Middle
Eastern company to prepare the project, but it is decided that the
increased risk of delay outweighs the decreased risk of acceptance so
this option is foregone.
The fourth phase of the project is the collection and evaluation of
bids for the construction project. Uncertainty concerning the
qualifications of the regional companies influences decisions in the
fourth phase as well. Normally, open bidding is used on construction
contracts and the lowest bidder is selected. Using a local company would
likely to decrease the risk of not being accepted by local companies but
management is concerned that use of the lowest local bidder may increase
the risk of delays in construction if the company does not have a
reasonable chance of staying on schedule and on budget. Management has
the option of changing their bidding process and using a selective
bidding process that only solicits bids from some of the most
experienced local companies. Management has decided that since the
project will be properly prepared by a known firm in the US, an
experienced local construction company should have little trouble
executing the construction process. This is expected to reduce the risk
of delays in construction and increase price slightly with no expected
change to the risk of not being accepted.
The fifth phase of the project is construction. Management has the
option of delaying construction in order to further analyze the
situation. Mr. Vanegor feels confident in the decision to globalize and
sees no reason to delay construction. Hence, there are no real options
in this phase to consider.
The sixth phase of the project is the acquisition of factory
equipment. Management has the option of acquiring equipment from local
equipment manufacturers. This is likely to result in a lower cost, but
Mr. Vanegor is concerned that regional equipment manufacturers may not
be able to supply equipment of the desired quality. Management has the
option of buying local equipment but it is decided that the risk of
production problems outweighs the cost savings.
The seventh phase of the project is the formation of a distribution
channel in the region. Normally sales teams that report directly to the
SG Corporation would be used. However, local sales agents trained and
hired by SG may have a difficult time gaining acceptance by local
companies. Management has the option of using a regional wholesaler
instead of the usual sales teams. This is expected to decrease the risk
of not being accepted by local companies. However, Mr. Vanegor is
concerned that the use of a wholesaler may increase the risk of delays
in the collection of revenues. Management decides to forego the option
of using a regional wholesaler.
The eighth phase of the project is the organization of marketing
activities in the region. The decision of management, in the previous
phase, to use local sales teams influences the decision to be made in
this phase. Normally, the sales force would market directly to
construction companies. An American-type sales team is expected to have
some risk of fitting in with Middle Eastern construction companies.
Management has the option of marketing instead to local retailers. The
idea here is that the members of the sales force will build stronger
relationships with fewer customers than would be the case if the sales
force focused on direct marketing to the construction companies.
The ninth phase of the project is the consideration of quality
control issues. The SG Corporation has a successful quality control
program in its US facilities, but it is not ISO 9000 certified.
Management knows that ISO certification is considered to be more
important internationally than it is in the US. Management has the
option of implementing ISO certification. It is not expected that ISO
9000 certification will have any impact on product quality, but it may
reduce the risk of not being accepted by local companies that are
familiar with ISO certification.
The tenth and final phase of the project is launch. Mr. Vanegor is
happy with the decision making process to this point and is convinced
that globalization is necessary. Management has no real options. Figure
5 lists the expected probabilities of the above-identified risks for two
cities in two Middle Eastern countries.
The fifth step of Cave and Minty's method is the calculation
of the project's NPV. Figure 6 summarizes the cash inflows and
outflows expected to be associated with this project. Based on the data
from Figure 6, the NPV for the Cairo facility is approximately
$125,830,565 and the NPV for the Kuwait City facility is approximately
$116,193,546. Both of the projects have positive NPVs, but since they
are mutually exclusive, NPV analysis suggests that the facility be
placed in Cairo.
The sixth step in the real options pricing methodology of Cave and
Minty (2004) is the identification of real options. Differences in the
value of the real options associated with the two facility locations may
change the relative desirability of the two locations. Figure 7
summarizes the real options identified by Mr. Vanegor and his team
concerning a facility in Cairo. Similarly, Figure 8 summarizes the real
options that have been identified concerning a facility in Kuwait City.
Figures 7 and 8 include the critical decisions and risks that
management has some control over. Figure 7 is associated with Cairo.
Figure 8 is associated with Kuwait City. By exercising the appropriate
options, management can reduce the risk of negative outcomes. For
example, using selective bidding in Kuwait City will reduce the
probability risk of delay by 15%.
The seventh step of the option pricing methodology is obtaining
additional data if necessary. Mr. Vanegor is happy with the decision
making process so far. He feels that no additional data is necessary.
The eighth step in the real options pricing methodology of Cave and
Minty (2004) is the calculation of the project's strategic NPV.
Figures 9 and 10 summarize the cash inflows and outflows expected for
the project for Cairo and Kuwait City if all appropriate options are
exercised.
Based on the data from Figure 9 and Figure 10, the strategic NPV
for the Cairo facility is approximately $150,095,347 and the NPV for the
Kuwait City facility is approximately $160,917,435. Once again the two
projects are mutually exclusive. The Cave and Minty (2004) method
suggests that the facility be placed in Kuwait City. Note that this is a
reversal of the decision arrived at by NPV. This is because the options
associated with a Kuwait City facility make it more desirable. When real
options are ignored, NPV analysis underestimates the value of both
projects. The consideration of real options increases the value of both
projects. The decision for the location of the facility is reversed once
real options are considered. Management expects that there is greater
flexibility associated with the Kuwait City location, thus making it
more appealing than a Cairo location.
The ninth and final step of Cave and Minty's method is to
perform a sensitivity analysis. The purpose of the sensitivity analysis
is to assess the sensitivity of the model to changes in the various
inputs. In the case of the SG Corporation, these inputs are the risk
probabilities from Figures 7 and 8. Ross, Westerfield and Jaffe (2008)
identify sensitivity analysis as what-if analysis. The decision maker
could ask "What if the probabilities were ..." an infinite
number of sets of values. Here two what-if scenarios are explored.
In the first scenario, management is pessimistic in its ability to
respond to uncertainty so the value of all options are reduced by 10%.
This is shown in Figure 11.
In the second scenario management is optimistic in its ability to
respond to uncertainty so the value of all options are increased by 50%.
This is shown in Figure 12.
The Kuwait City project is more sensitive to changes in the option
values than the Cairo project. This is what leads to the reversal of
decisions from the fifth to the eighth step of the methodology. When all
option values are set equal to zero, Cairo is more valuable. As the
options are introduced, both NPVs increase. Because the Kuwait City
project is more sensitive, its value increases faster and surpasses the
value of the Cairo project.
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R. Samuel Sale
Assistant Professor
Department of Management and Marketing
Lamar University
rssale@hotmail.com
Guclu Atinc
Doctoral student
Louisiana Tech University
Figure 1: Nine activities adapted from Cave and Minty (2004)
Activity Objectives
Assess general external environment Identify
the feasibility of the opportunity Identify
broad opportunities and threats Develop the
Think Strategically foundation for decisions
Identify risks that could impact the
opportunity Quantify risks (magnitude and
probability) Indicate entrepreneur's risk
Value Risk Exposure
Identify milestones within which key
Identify major decisions must be made Segregate project
milestones into phases for focused analysis
Identify decisions Develop decision and event tree paths for
events and each phase Highlight key uncertainties and
uncertainties in each possible options Incorporate volatility
phase estimates into decision trees
Calculate passive Identify and quantify investments and
NPV revenues
Determine the flexibility at each decision
node Modify the passive event trees to
Identify available real highlight these flexibilities Determine the
options relationships between options
Determine the alternations required to the
Obtain additional data event trees Incorporate and quantify issues
for real options if identified in strategic thinking into NPV
necessary calculations
Determine the Calculate the strategic NPV Determine real
strategic NPV options'
Perform sensitivity Identify key factors values
Analysis
Figure 2: Proactive management of options adapted from Leslie and
Michaels (1997)
Desired Outcomes Suggested Actions
Maintain entry barriers
Signal ability to exercise
Increased option duration Innovate to hold technology lead
Extent opportunity to related
markets
Increased uncertainty of Encourage complementary products
expected cash flows Bundle products
Develop marketing strategies
Increased present value of Develop alliances with low-cost
expected cashed flows suppliers
Increased risk-free interest Monitor the risk-free interest rate
rate
Leverage economies of scale
Leverage economies of scope
Reduced present value of fixed Leverage economies of learning
costs
Create implementation hurdles for
Reduced value lost by waiting competitors
to exercise Lock up key resources
Figure 3: Excerpt from Feasibility Study
Place of the
New Factory Cairo Kuwait City
Initial
Investment ($) 15,000,000.00 16,500,000.00
Time to
Complete (Years) 3.00 2.00
Annual Construction
Costs until completion ($) 2,500,000.00 3,000,000.00
Average
Labor Cost ($/h) 4.00 5.00
Annual Required Labor (Total 3,000,000.00 3,000,000.00
Hours)
Annual Required Raw Material ($) 25,000,000.00 22,500,000.00
Annual Other Costs ($) 2,500,000.00 3,500,000.00
Yearly Production
Capacity ($) 40,000,000.00 40,000,000.00
Market Demand
in Middle East ($) 1,000,000,000.00 1,000,000,000.00
Current Local Supply ($) 750,000,000.00 750,000,000.00
Estimated Yearly Sales
in Middle East ($) 50,000,000.00 50,000,000.00
Tax Rate 0.08 0.06
Annual Estimated Net Income ($) 9,660,000.00 8,460,000.00
Figure 4: Potential risks associated with Globalization Project
Risk of delays in collection of revenues Risk construction delays
Risk of not being accepted by local
companies Risk of terrorist attacks
Risk of import-export problems Risk of war in the region
Risk of currency fluctuations
Figure 5: Expected probabilities associated with risks
Kuwait
Cairo City
P(Risk of delays in collection of revenues) 0.05 0.001
P(Risk of not being accepted by local 0.10 0.05
companies)
P(Risk of import-export problems) 0.05 0.01
P(Risk of currency fluctuations) 0.10 0.05
P(Risk of delays in construction) 0.10 0.15
P(Risk of terrorist attacks) 0.05 0.01
P(Risk of war in the region) 0.01 0.01
Figure 6: Expected cash flows for NPV
Cairo
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Capital -- -- --
Spending $15,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,500,000
Operating Cash
Flows *
Kuwait City
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Capital -- --
Spending -$16,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,000,000
Operating Cash
Flows * $8,460,000
Cairo
Year 4
Capital
Spending
Operating Cash
Flows * $9,660,000
Capital
Spending
Operating Cash
Flows *
Required Rate of Return = 7%
Annual Growth Rate in Sales = 2%
* For practical purposes the Net Income after the launch is
considered a growing perpetuity
Figure 7: Options associated with a Cairo facility
Critical Associated Associated Risk
Decision Option Risk Elimination
Construction Construction Selective Risk of
bids company Bidding delay 10%
Marketing Risk of
Marketing through not being
activities Market method retailers accepted 5%
ISO Risk of
Quality Control certifi- not being
control method cation accepted 5%
Figure 8: Options associated with a Kuwait City facility
Critical Associated Associated Risk
Decision Option Risk Elimination
Construction Construction Selective Risk of
bids company Bidding delay 15%
Marketing Risk of
Marketing Market through not being
activities method retailers accepted 10%
Risk of
Quality Control ISO not being
control method certification accepted 10%
Figure 9: Expected cash flows for strategic NPV--Cairo
Cairo (Figures based on the probabilities)
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Capital ($13,500,00 ($2,250,00
Spending 0) 0) ($2,250,000) ($2,250,000)
Operating
Cash
Flows *
Strategic $150,095,34
NPV 7
Cairo (Figures
based on the
probabilities)
Year 4
Capital
Spending
Operating
Cash
Flows * $11,109,000
Strategic
NPV
* Year 0 = -15,000,000 + (15,000,000 x 0.10) = -$13,500,000
* Year 1 = -2,500,000 + (2,500,000 x 0.10) = -$2,250,000
* Year 2 = -2,500,000 + (2,500,000 x 0.10) = -$2,250,000
* Year 3 = -2,500,000 + (2,500,000 x 0.10) = -$2,250,000
* Year 4 = +9,660,000 + (9,660,000 x 0.05) + (9,660,000 x 0.05) +
(9,660,000 x 0.05) = +$11,109,000
Based on these new outcomes, the new NPV for Cairo project is
Cairo Project Strategic NPV = (-13,500,000) + (-2,250,000/1.07) +
(-2,250,000/[1.07.sup.2])
+
(-2,250,000/[1.07.sup.3]) + ((11,109,000/(7%-2%))/[1.07.sup.4]) =
$150,095,347
Figure 10: Expected cash flows for strategic NPV--Kuwait
Kuwait City (Figures based on the probabilities)
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Capital
Spending ($14,025,000) ($2,550,000) ($2,550,000)
Operating
Cash
Flows * $10,998,000
Strategic
NPV $160,917,435
* Year 0 = -16,500,000 + (16,500,000 x 0.15) = -$14,025,000
* Year 1 = -3,000,000 + (3,000,000 x 0.15) = -$2,550,000
* Year 2 = -3,000,000 + (3,000,000 x 0.15) = -$2,550,000
* Year 3 = +8,460,000 + (8,460,000 x 0.10) + (8,460,000 x 0.10) +
(8,460,000 x 0.10) = +$160,917,435
Based on these new outcomes, the new NPV for Kuwait project is:
Kuwait City Project Strategic NPV = (-14,025,000) + (-2,550,000/1.07)
+ (-2,550,000/[1.07.sup.2]) + ((10,998,400/(7%-2%))/[1.07.sup.3]) =
$160,917,435
Figure 11: All option values reduced by 10%
Sensitivity Analysis
Percentage Change Percentage Change
Change in Probability of Cairo NPV of Kuwait City NPV
P(collection of revenues) -0.4910% -0.8583%
P(acceptance) -0.9820% -1.7166%
P(import-export problems) 0.0000% 0.0000%
P(currency fluctuations) 0.0000% 0.0000%
P(delays in construction) -0.1436% -0.2044%
P(terror) 0.0000% 0.0000%
P(war) 0.0000% 0.0000%
Figure 12: All option values increased by 50%
Sensitivity Analysis
Percentage Change Percentage Change
Change in Probability of Cairo NPV of Kuwait City NPV
P(acceptance) 4.9099% 8.5831%
P(terror) 0.0000% 0.0000%
P(collection of revenues) 2.4550% 4.2916%
P(war) 0.0000% 0.0000%
P(currency fluctuations) 0.0000% 0.0000%
P(import-export problems) 0.0000% 0.0000%
P(delays in construction) 0.7182% 1.0218%